Since the trade of Jim Thome, the Phillies have been very busy with pitching, and not much of it is good news for improving the team.
Exit the Sandman
First, Billy Wagner bolted for the Mets, and who can blame him when the Mets are throwing money around like George Steinbrenner. $43 Million is way too much for a closer, even one as dominent as Wagner, but that's what you get in a free agent year that has mediocre talent all around. It's really a shame that Ed Wade didn't sign Wagner to the 3 year $24 Million contract that Wagner wanted during the season. Seems like quite a bargin now. Wagner will be impossible to replace and to make it worse will be facing off against the Phillies several times next year. The only plus to that is Wagner's track record with past teams, he didn't look like much against the Astros last year, so we can hold on to that hope.
Enter the Old Man
To make up for the loss of Billy Wagner, the Phillies promptly turned around and signed Tom "Flash" Gordon. While the Phillies weren't willing to guarantee a 4th year for the 34 year old Wagner, they had no problem guaranteeing a 3 year $18 Million contract for the 38 year old Tom Gordon. Did I mention how strange this free-agent season has become? If not, this deal epitomizes it. Kyle Farnsworth BTW signed a 3 year $17 Million deal to be Gordon's replacement in the Bronx. Yes, very strange indeed.
Had this deal been made 7 years ago, it would be great for the Phillies. You see, Gordon hasn't actually been a full-time closer since the 2001 season when he was with the Cubs. In fact, Gordon has only been a closer for 3 or 4 years of his 19 year career, he was great in '98. That said, Gordon has been a fabulous setup man the past 3 years, registering a 2.62 ERA and 18 Saves -- albeit in 36 chances, giving him a 50% success rate.
Gordon will probably be a competent reliever in 2006 -- read that to mean better than Mesa -- assuming he can improve his save conversion rate, beyond that, it will be up to his conditioning to decide if he stays effective, or becomes a high priced setup man. It seems to me that Trevor Hoffman would have been a better option, but the Phillies got the man they really wanted!? Hopefully Gillick knows something we don't and he can do the job.
Actually, if he can come through in the big games, that would be better than Wagner did for the team last year. As great as Wagner was, blowing an easy win against the Marlins and 2 against the Astros late in the year sealed the Phillies fate last year.
Phillies Sign No Name Relievier
Looking to bolster a depleated bullpen, the Phillies went out and signed Julio Santana. Who is this guy you ask? I don't really know either. Apparently Santana has been floating around the league since 1997, and started out last year in the minors after a stint in Japan the year before. As a role player in the Phillies bullpen, he might not be all that bad as he strikes out more than 1 batter per inning and managed a .221 BAA last year, both very solid stats. It seems that control is what plagues this journey-man reliever.
Speaking of a "depleated bullpen" I can't say that I quite understand that thought. Yes, the team lost Wagner and probably Urbina, but they still have Geary, Fultz, Madson and (ugh) Cormier. But, they also have Tejeda and Brito who have lively arms and can spot start. Hmm, maybe Urbina can get out of jail and help us out, then you could make an argument that this bullpen is better than last years, even without Wagner.
Phillies Sign No-Name Catcher
Yes, today's blog is centered on pitching and the aftermath of Wagner leaving, but the Phillies also signed a new backup catcher, which directly effects the pitching staff. While I don't know much about Sal Fasano, another journey-man who has been around since 1996, the wrap on him is that he is a good defensive backstop, which is a good thing to have. However, this signals the end of Todd Pratt's time in Philadelphia, which might not be a good thing. Pratt was Lieber's personal catcher last year, and Lieber credits Pratt with making him a more effective pitcher. For whatever reason, Lieber isn't as comfortable with Mike Lieberthal, which could lead to a drop off in production for the Phillies (cough) ace.
Random Thoughts
A lot of rumors have been going around recently regarding Abreu being traded. How can this be a good thing for the Phillies next year? Take away the teams best hitter and Gold Glove right fielder for a middle of the rotation starter. The big rumor around the Cardinal's Jason Marquis makes no sense what-so-ever. Why would we want the Cardinal's worst pitcher for our best hitter? Maybe we are making up for the Steve Carlton trade...With all the emphasis on rounding out the pitching staff and staying within budget, why aren't the Phillies jumping on re-signing Vicente Padilla. While Padilla had some issues last year, he was the most dependable pitcher the Phillies had over the second half. He also happens to be the best available pitcher on the market after Javier Vasquez, and it would take a trade of Abreu to get him...As for the 5th spot in the rotation, people seem to be pushing Ryan Madson into that role. Has everyone forgotten about Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. One of those guys can surely get the job done, why not get all of them into the mix, Tejeda and Brito can both strengthen the bullpen if they don't start. And, don't forget that Randy Wolf should be back after the All-Star break, though he would be a better option for filling in for whoever is hurt by then, and of course we can't be sure how he will pitch after his surgery. Though recent history with this procedure suggests that he should be just fine.
06 December 2005
25 November 2005
He Gone, an Ode to Jim Thome
Jim Thome was an icon in Philadelphia the 3 years he was in town, and today that icon is moving to my home town of Chicago to play for the world champion Chicago White Sox. While it is sad to see Thome leave the Phillies after what he brought to this club, the move was badly needed to give Ryan Howard the chance to play everyday and to give the Phillies the payroll flexibility needed to find more pitching.
Thome is a great player, a great clubhouse guy and an all around great guy. His time in Philadelphia was short, but his story with the Phillies meant much more to this team than the left-handed power he brought to the field each day.
Overture
Prior to 2002, the Phillies were a team in search of an identity. With Scott Rolen's ascention to an elite player, Pat Burrell's arrival on the scene, and Bobby Abreu's emergence they had a fearsome 1-2-3 punch in the middle of the order. However, Rolen became a poison pill in the clubhouse, calling out the team as not being committed to winning, and finally turning down a long-term contract, forcing the Phillies to trade him to St. Louis. Prior to Rolen's fallout, the Phillies seemed to be moving in the right direction to become a contender, perhaps just a few more pieces away from contention. Now, the Phillies were missing a force in the middle of their lineup and searching for an answer.
With a new stadium being built, the Phillies knew they would be flush with money and were finally willing to spend the amount of money needed to field a team worthy of knocking off the Atlanta Braves and making a run at the World Series. The problem was, what moves to make.
Act I
Right around Thanksgiving of 2002, the Phillies started to make some bold moves to improve the team. Jim Thome signs an $85 million deal and thus changes the attitude of a ball club that was all too accustomed to loosing over it's 120 plus year history. The signing of Thome -- the largest contract in Phillies history -- showed everyone in baseball that Philadelphia was serious about fielding a winning team.
Thome rode into town with great fan fare, like a Roman general returning from a successful campaign against the Saxsons. Thome was instantly a hit with Phillies fans before playing a single game. Thome answered the fan fare by hitting 89 HR in his first 2 seasons and averaging 118 RBI. The Phillies narrowly missed the playoffs each year, and seemed just a few spare parts away from getting over the top.
Act II
2005 started out poorly for Thome with a back injury that limited his time in the lineup and effected his hitting. The Phillies came out of the gates slowly and looked like they were going to be burried in the competitive N.L. East. The fans started to boo and some of it was directed at Jim Thome. The season wore on and the Phillies clawed their way back into the division lead and had Thome coming back from the D.L. and all seemed to be good in the world again.
However, Thome's return weighed on the team as it was clear he wasn't the powerful force that he had been in 2003-04. The boos from the fans intensified. Thome finally hit the D.L. again on July 1 with elbow tendenitis. Once Thome went down, the Phillies called up young slugger Ryan Howard. A couple weeks after Howard arrived on the scene, the Phillies seemed to have new life and new hope for the post-season. With every game Howard continued clubbing the balls out of the ballpark and Thome started slipping to the back of fans' minds.
Thome finally shut his season down in August, electing to have elbow surgery, but the fans hardly noticed, his season ended producing just .207 with 7HR and 30RBI in 193AB. But the Phillies were in the thick of a playoff race and everyone knew that Ryan Howard was the key to getting them over the top. Howard did his part by hitting 22HR and 63RBI in just over half a season, including several key blasts to win games late in the season. Unfortunately, the Phillies finished the season 2 games behind the Braves and 1 Game behind the Astros for the Wild Card.
Act III
The Phillies enter the 2005 post-season with a new general manager, a budget that isn't allowed to expand much and several key personell questions.
The key questions, in no particular order:
- Who will be next year's closer?
- Who will play center field?
- How will the pitching staff be constructed after Lieber, Myers and Lidle?
- Who will play first base?
With the trade of Thome, Pat Gillick has answered two of those questions. First base is now Ryan Howard's domain, and hopefully will be for the next 15 years and 500 Home Runs. While the Phillies probably would have been satisfied with the White Sox giving up a couple of prospects and taking on close to half of Thome's remaining contract of $46M, the White Sox came up with much more. The Phillies not only get an additional $24M to work with, they also get a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in Aaron Rowand. Rowand looks like he could be a 20HR / 20SB guy who could fill in the second spot in the order.
Even though Thome is off to the White Sox, the Phillies still have the sense that they are one of the elite teams in the N.L. and are just a couple of pieces away from beating out the Atlanta Braves.
Prior to Thome's arrival in Philadelphia, winning was a rare accomplishment for the Phillies, with Thome's departure from Philadelphia, winning is now an expectation for Phillies fans. While many factors were involved in Philadelphia's renaissance at the turn of the century, perhaps none were as important as bringing Jim Thome to town.
Thome is a great player, a great clubhouse guy and an all around great guy. His time in Philadelphia was short, but his story with the Phillies meant much more to this team than the left-handed power he brought to the field each day.
Overture
Prior to 2002, the Phillies were a team in search of an identity. With Scott Rolen's ascention to an elite player, Pat Burrell's arrival on the scene, and Bobby Abreu's emergence they had a fearsome 1-2-3 punch in the middle of the order. However, Rolen became a poison pill in the clubhouse, calling out the team as not being committed to winning, and finally turning down a long-term contract, forcing the Phillies to trade him to St. Louis. Prior to Rolen's fallout, the Phillies seemed to be moving in the right direction to become a contender, perhaps just a few more pieces away from contention. Now, the Phillies were missing a force in the middle of their lineup and searching for an answer.
With a new stadium being built, the Phillies knew they would be flush with money and were finally willing to spend the amount of money needed to field a team worthy of knocking off the Atlanta Braves and making a run at the World Series. The problem was, what moves to make.
Act I
Right around Thanksgiving of 2002, the Phillies started to make some bold moves to improve the team. Jim Thome signs an $85 million deal and thus changes the attitude of a ball club that was all too accustomed to loosing over it's 120 plus year history. The signing of Thome -- the largest contract in Phillies history -- showed everyone in baseball that Philadelphia was serious about fielding a winning team.
Thome rode into town with great fan fare, like a Roman general returning from a successful campaign against the Saxsons. Thome was instantly a hit with Phillies fans before playing a single game. Thome answered the fan fare by hitting 89 HR in his first 2 seasons and averaging 118 RBI. The Phillies narrowly missed the playoffs each year, and seemed just a few spare parts away from getting over the top.
Act II
2005 started out poorly for Thome with a back injury that limited his time in the lineup and effected his hitting. The Phillies came out of the gates slowly and looked like they were going to be burried in the competitive N.L. East. The fans started to boo and some of it was directed at Jim Thome. The season wore on and the Phillies clawed their way back into the division lead and had Thome coming back from the D.L. and all seemed to be good in the world again.
However, Thome's return weighed on the team as it was clear he wasn't the powerful force that he had been in 2003-04. The boos from the fans intensified. Thome finally hit the D.L. again on July 1 with elbow tendenitis. Once Thome went down, the Phillies called up young slugger Ryan Howard. A couple weeks after Howard arrived on the scene, the Phillies seemed to have new life and new hope for the post-season. With every game Howard continued clubbing the balls out of the ballpark and Thome started slipping to the back of fans' minds.
Thome finally shut his season down in August, electing to have elbow surgery, but the fans hardly noticed, his season ended producing just .207 with 7HR and 30RBI in 193AB. But the Phillies were in the thick of a playoff race and everyone knew that Ryan Howard was the key to getting them over the top. Howard did his part by hitting 22HR and 63RBI in just over half a season, including several key blasts to win games late in the season. Unfortunately, the Phillies finished the season 2 games behind the Braves and 1 Game behind the Astros for the Wild Card.
Act III
The Phillies enter the 2005 post-season with a new general manager, a budget that isn't allowed to expand much and several key personell questions.
The key questions, in no particular order:
- Who will be next year's closer?
- Who will play center field?
- How will the pitching staff be constructed after Lieber, Myers and Lidle?
- Who will play first base?
With the trade of Thome, Pat Gillick has answered two of those questions. First base is now Ryan Howard's domain, and hopefully will be for the next 15 years and 500 Home Runs. While the Phillies probably would have been satisfied with the White Sox giving up a couple of prospects and taking on close to half of Thome's remaining contract of $46M, the White Sox came up with much more. The Phillies not only get an additional $24M to work with, they also get a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in Aaron Rowand. Rowand looks like he could be a 20HR / 20SB guy who could fill in the second spot in the order.
Even though Thome is off to the White Sox, the Phillies still have the sense that they are one of the elite teams in the N.L. and are just a couple of pieces away from beating out the Atlanta Braves.
Prior to Thome's arrival in Philadelphia, winning was a rare accomplishment for the Phillies, with Thome's departure from Philadelphia, winning is now an expectation for Phillies fans. While many factors were involved in Philadelphia's renaissance at the turn of the century, perhaps none were as important as bringing Jim Thome to town.
02 November 2005
Mr. Post Season Arives in Philly
The Phillies announced that Pat Gillick is the man to replace Ed Wade as the GM for the team. Pat Gillick comes to Philadelphia with a pedigree of winning and for making the teams he heads playoff contenders. In a mere 9 years as a GM, Gillick boasts 3 different teams with playoff appearances, the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners.
Even more impressive is the fact that the Blue Jays won back-to-back World Series, in '92 and '93 (sigh). He was also at the helm when the Mariners won a record setting 116 regular season games.
What more could Phillies fans ask for than a guy who has proven himself over and over again. Hopefully he still has the fire left to get the Phillies over the hump. Gillick did say "I still have the passion and want the competitve edge." Interestingly enough, he also indirectly praised the job Ed Wade had done saying "I'm very honored to be a part of the Phillies, an outstanding franchise...There is a great foundation." Before Ed Wade, nobody would have mistaken the Phillies as an "outstanding franchise".
Congratulations to David Montgomery for commiting to Gillick before the Dodgers and Red Sox had a chance to snare him. The Dodgers had the chance last year and went with Paul DePodesta, who was promptly fired this year. Think that team is regretting not getting Gillick last year? The Red Sox are still dealing with the fact that Kid Theo is leaving, so they didn't have time to get into the fray.
Now the fun begins for Gillick and Phillies fans, dealing with Wagner and Urbina, figuring out what to do with Ryan Howard's bat and putting together the starting rotation. It should be an interesting off-season in Philly once again.
Random Thoughts
Way to go Gold Glove Bobby Abreu. It's about time you get the recognition you deserve as the cornerstone of the Phillies...The free agent list for the Phillies now includes Wagner, Urbina, Pratt, Terry Adams, Michael Tucker and Ramon Martinez. My vote is to sign Wagner and Urbina, don't even bother with Adams, Tucker and Martinez. Pratt is an interesting situation given his success last year. The Phillies really need to start grooming Lieberthal's replacement, so it would be a good opportunity to bring up Ruiz or Jaramillo to give them some big league experience. On the other hand, Pratt worked well with 17 game winner Jon Lieber, so it would be a shame to ruin that chemistry...Lofton hasn't filed for free-agency yet, so here's to hoping his .400+ OBP stays with the Phillies. That was one heck of a platoon with Jason Michaels, I for one am ready to see that again.
Even more impressive is the fact that the Blue Jays won back-to-back World Series, in '92 and '93 (sigh). He was also at the helm when the Mariners won a record setting 116 regular season games.
What more could Phillies fans ask for than a guy who has proven himself over and over again. Hopefully he still has the fire left to get the Phillies over the hump. Gillick did say "I still have the passion and want the competitve edge." Interestingly enough, he also indirectly praised the job Ed Wade had done saying "I'm very honored to be a part of the Phillies, an outstanding franchise...There is a great foundation." Before Ed Wade, nobody would have mistaken the Phillies as an "outstanding franchise".
Congratulations to David Montgomery for commiting to Gillick before the Dodgers and Red Sox had a chance to snare him. The Dodgers had the chance last year and went with Paul DePodesta, who was promptly fired this year. Think that team is regretting not getting Gillick last year? The Red Sox are still dealing with the fact that Kid Theo is leaving, so they didn't have time to get into the fray.
Now the fun begins for Gillick and Phillies fans, dealing with Wagner and Urbina, figuring out what to do with Ryan Howard's bat and putting together the starting rotation. It should be an interesting off-season in Philly once again.
Random Thoughts
Way to go Gold Glove Bobby Abreu. It's about time you get the recognition you deserve as the cornerstone of the Phillies...The free agent list for the Phillies now includes Wagner, Urbina, Pratt, Terry Adams, Michael Tucker and Ramon Martinez. My vote is to sign Wagner and Urbina, don't even bother with Adams, Tucker and Martinez. Pratt is an interesting situation given his success last year. The Phillies really need to start grooming Lieberthal's replacement, so it would be a good opportunity to bring up Ruiz or Jaramillo to give them some big league experience. On the other hand, Pratt worked well with 17 game winner Jon Lieber, so it would be a shame to ruin that chemistry...Lofton hasn't filed for free-agency yet, so here's to hoping his .400+ OBP stays with the Phillies. That was one heck of a platoon with Jason Michaels, I for one am ready to see that again.
30 October 2005
The Best News!
It's been awhile since my last blog post. As a die-hard Phillies fan, I've been as frustrated about the end of the season as anyone. With so many postives going for the team -- Rollins hitting streak, a late season run against tough divisional matchups, the growing team chemistry, and a schedule advantage against the Astros -- it was tough to watch the season end on an error by the Cubs gold-glove shortstop.
Since then, there has been much to talk about in Phillies Nation -- Ed Wade's dismissal, the search for a new general manager, Wagner's decision to test free-agency -- but the extended frustration didn't make it seem worth talking about yet.
Now, the Phillies have received about the best news they could hope for, and it has nothing to do with the Phillies organization. Leo Mazzone is no longer the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves. To the lay-fan, this may not sound like much news to consider, but for those of us who follow the game intently, we know what this means.
Leo Mazzone along with Bobby Cox's arrival in Atlanta back in the early 1990's started one of the most amazing runs in pro-sports history -- a 15 year Division Title streak. Clearly the pitching dynasty that Mazzone lead was a huge key to that run. Just three times from 1992-2005 did the Braves not produce the best or second-best ERA in the Majors. That's pitching domination plain and simple. Now Mazzone moves along to the Baltimore Orioles to work his magic for one of the majors worst pitching staffs season in and season out.
Does this mean we can count the Braves out next year? Certainly not. Until someone beats the Braves, they have to be considered the favorite to win the division. However, without Mazzone, the team should begin to loose their grip on the best pitching staff in baseball. Now lets hope the Braves loose Furcal and really put themselves into a tough situation.
Random Thoughts
Ed Wade's dismissal doesn't come as a surprise, but was he really as bad as Phillies fans make him out to be? No, he didn't construct a team that could make it to the post-season, and he did a poor job at making trade deadline moves, but he leaves a team that is as successful as Philadelphia has seen since the late 70's. Considering the team has finished with a winning record the past 3 years and 4 of the past 5, this organization has turned a historic corner it would seem. The Phillies also boast one of the most fertile farm systems in baseball over recent years, which is a direct result of what Wade built. Wade leaves the Phillies in much better shape than he found them, but he couldn't beat the tandem of Mazzone and Cox and has become the scape goat...The Phillies are interviewing several new GM candidates and this person will be charged with getting the team over the 90 win hump and into the post-season. One name that is interesting is Houston's GM Gerry Hunsicker. He's an interesting choice since his first duty as the Phillies GM could be re-signing Billy Wagner. Wagner is the pitcher he traded to the Phillies because of payroll issues, only to turn around and sign Petitte, Clemens and then Beltran. Wagner hasn't had kind words for his old ballclub, and Hunsicker is the reason. Makes for an interesting situation...Speaking of Wagner and his choice to test free-agency, if we take the fireballing pitcher at his word, he really wants to stay in Philadelphia, and is just testing the waters know his true value. He is likely to find out that a 3 year 27 Million dollar offer is about as good as it gets. If last year was an indication, teams seem to be unwilling to sign a top pitcher for more than 7 Million per year, so the 10 Million Wagner is seeking may be out of the range of feasibility for other clubs. Can't blame the guy for testing the waters, and definitely hope to see him in the bullpen next year as a key component to the Phillies playoff run...how sad was it to watch the Padres in the playoffs knowing that the Phillies were a much better team. With the way the Cardinals were pitching and the Astros were hitting, if the Phillies had been in the place of the Padres, you just have to wonder what if? Ok, it's time to let last season go and start thinking about the next...Congrats to my home town White Sox, it was an amazing run. Wanna play the Phillies to see who is really the best team? Ok, this time I really mean it, time to let last season go.
Since then, there has been much to talk about in Phillies Nation -- Ed Wade's dismissal, the search for a new general manager, Wagner's decision to test free-agency -- but the extended frustration didn't make it seem worth talking about yet.
Now, the Phillies have received about the best news they could hope for, and it has nothing to do with the Phillies organization. Leo Mazzone is no longer the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves. To the lay-fan, this may not sound like much news to consider, but for those of us who follow the game intently, we know what this means.
Leo Mazzone along with Bobby Cox's arrival in Atlanta back in the early 1990's started one of the most amazing runs in pro-sports history -- a 15 year Division Title streak. Clearly the pitching dynasty that Mazzone lead was a huge key to that run. Just three times from 1992-2005 did the Braves not produce the best or second-best ERA in the Majors. That's pitching domination plain and simple. Now Mazzone moves along to the Baltimore Orioles to work his magic for one of the majors worst pitching staffs season in and season out.
Does this mean we can count the Braves out next year? Certainly not. Until someone beats the Braves, they have to be considered the favorite to win the division. However, without Mazzone, the team should begin to loose their grip on the best pitching staff in baseball. Now lets hope the Braves loose Furcal and really put themselves into a tough situation.
Random Thoughts
Ed Wade's dismissal doesn't come as a surprise, but was he really as bad as Phillies fans make him out to be? No, he didn't construct a team that could make it to the post-season, and he did a poor job at making trade deadline moves, but he leaves a team that is as successful as Philadelphia has seen since the late 70's. Considering the team has finished with a winning record the past 3 years and 4 of the past 5, this organization has turned a historic corner it would seem. The Phillies also boast one of the most fertile farm systems in baseball over recent years, which is a direct result of what Wade built. Wade leaves the Phillies in much better shape than he found them, but he couldn't beat the tandem of Mazzone and Cox and has become the scape goat...The Phillies are interviewing several new GM candidates and this person will be charged with getting the team over the 90 win hump and into the post-season. One name that is interesting is Houston's GM Gerry Hunsicker. He's an interesting choice since his first duty as the Phillies GM could be re-signing Billy Wagner. Wagner is the pitcher he traded to the Phillies because of payroll issues, only to turn around and sign Petitte, Clemens and then Beltran. Wagner hasn't had kind words for his old ballclub, and Hunsicker is the reason. Makes for an interesting situation...Speaking of Wagner and his choice to test free-agency, if we take the fireballing pitcher at his word, he really wants to stay in Philadelphia, and is just testing the waters know his true value. He is likely to find out that a 3 year 27 Million dollar offer is about as good as it gets. If last year was an indication, teams seem to be unwilling to sign a top pitcher for more than 7 Million per year, so the 10 Million Wagner is seeking may be out of the range of feasibility for other clubs. Can't blame the guy for testing the waters, and definitely hope to see him in the bullpen next year as a key component to the Phillies playoff run...how sad was it to watch the Padres in the playoffs knowing that the Phillies were a much better team. With the way the Cardinals were pitching and the Astros were hitting, if the Phillies had been in the place of the Padres, you just have to wonder what if? Ok, it's time to let last season go and start thinking about the next...Congrats to my home town White Sox, it was an amazing run. Wanna play the Phillies to see who is really the best team? Ok, this time I really mean it, time to let last season go.
24 September 2005
The Stars are Aligning
Is there a higher power at work to get the Phillies into the playoffs this year? Or, is this higher power setting up Phillies fans for a tragic ending?
The Storm
After being swept at home by the Wild Card leading Astros September 5-7, dropping out of the Wild Card lead and embarking on the toughest stretch of games of the season, the Phillies looked like they might be in some real trouble.
With the season on the line, the Phillies rose to the task and took 4 of 6 games from both the Marlins and the Braves. One of those games was a miraculous come from behind win in the ninth inning against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins. That win is even more amazing considering it came against this year's leading Cy Young candidate in the 9th inning of a 3 hit shutout. While it was astounding that the Phillies scored 10 runs in that 9th inning, it is equally astounding given the fact that prior to that game the Phillies had only come from behind after trailing in the 8th inning or later to win 1 game this year. That's right, only a single win the entire year in that situation.
However, the magic continued against the Braves last Wednesday, after Atlanta had come back to tie the game 6-6 and send it to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Ryan Howard came up and hit his first extra-base hit against a left-handed pitcher. That hit was a grand slam that stole the game from the Braves. The next day, Tim Hudson had a shutout working into the 8th innning. In an inexplicable move, Bobby Cox let Hudson hit in the bottom of the 8th with a runner on 3rd base and only 1 out. The Phillies made it out of the inning without giving up a run. Hudson who was well over the 100 pitch mark (116 I think) and fatigued, came out in the 9th and promptly gave up 4 runs to loose the game. That's the first gift Bobby Cox has ever given the Phillies, even the Braves fans were booing him for that decision.
After all of that, you would think the Phillies had used up all of their magic. And, coming into the 9th inning against the Reds last night with a chance to move a game closer to the Astros, the thrill looked to be gone. The Reds had come back from a 6-1 deficit and taken a 10-6 lead heading into the 9th. Remember, the Phillies have only come back to win twice (after the Marlins) this year in this sort of situation, so things looked bleak. However, that's when the hitting started and the Phillies erupted for a 5 run 9th inning to take the game 11-10.
Twice in one week? Crayziness you say? Certainly. So maybe a higher power is at work here. This sort of stuff never happens to the Phillies, and this late in the season during a playoff run to boot.
Stars Aligning
Looking forward, how do the Phillies chances look now? The often discussed schedule disadvantage the Phillies had on September 9th has now turned into a great advantage today. The Phillies finish up the season at the Reds, home against the Mets and at the struggling Nationals. The Astros finish up the season at a very tough Cubs team, at the Cardinals, and the finale at home against the same tough Cubs team. The Cubs will be the Phillies fan's second favorite team the rest of the way.
Aligned star one...facing the Cubs is significant because Greg Maddux is trying to win 15 games for the 18th straight year, already a major league record. He currently has 13 wins, and the Cubs are giving him 2 more starts, the first against Pittsburgh, and if he wins that game, the second start would be the season finale against the Astros. Maddux is very determined to win right now and has a 2.53 ERA and 3 wins in his 5 September starts.
Star two...Roger Clemens is also hurting and his next start is uncertain. He was supposed to oppose Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs today, but is bothered by a strained hamstring, forcing the Astros to start Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio, the former Phillies farm hand that was traded as part of the deal for Billy Wagner, could help the Phillies after all by loosing today to the Cubs. Of course, as I write this, the Cubs have given up 2 runs in the top of the first, that's alright though, the stars are aligned in the Phillies favor, and not the star of the Astros (we hope).
Star three...if the Phillies should end up the season tied with the Astros, there would be a one game playoff in Philadelphia. That's significant since the Phillies would be making a short trip back from Washington while the Astros would have to make a long trip in from Houston. Not to mention the home field advantage.
Star four...the Phillis head home to play the Mets after the Reds series. As reported by NY Newsday, the Mets are considering shutting Pedro Martinez down for the remainder of the season, rather than lead off the series against the Phillies.
Star five...the Nationals have gone to a 4 man rotation, meaning that Livan Hernandez's last start of the year should be in their final game against the Marlins, and he would miss the final series against the Phillies entirely.
All the Phillies need to do is win one more game than the Astros and find themselves with the Wild Card lead. Win 2 more than the Astros and the Phillies can avoid a one game playoff. The stars are indeed aligned, and this season is squarely in the Phillies hands. It should be a phantastic phinish to the season.
Random Thoughts
Thank the stars for Ryan Howard. This kid should defnitely win the Roookie of the Year Award. His stats are there 20HR / 56RBI / .290 BA, (leading rookies in HR and RBI with only half a season played) but his impact on the team is what should win it for him. Without Howard, the Phillies would be playing for next year right now. Message to Phillies management -- You have to keep Howard around for next year and beyond...Props to Jon Leiber for pitching like an ace this late in the year, and for dominating Atlanta in his career. Leiber's last 8 games against Atlanta 1.83ERA / .229BAA...Ryan Madson is really struggling lately, that Howard grand slam and last night's heroics wouldn't have been necessary if Madson had pitched scoreless innings both those games. Maybe the Phillies should be using Aaron Fultz in Madson's spot right now...David Bell is really making up for his early season misery, a grand slam last week, and a game winning 2 run shot last night. We didn't mean everything we said about you before David. Keep up the good work...JRoll is out of sight right now with a 28 game hitting streak. Hopefully it is finally getting through to Rollins -- Get on base, use your speed, and you will score with the lineup the Phillies have...Abreu continues to impress by playing through multiple injuries and still producing. He is a true gamer and the Phillies are lucky to have him.
The Storm
After being swept at home by the Wild Card leading Astros September 5-7, dropping out of the Wild Card lead and embarking on the toughest stretch of games of the season, the Phillies looked like they might be in some real trouble.
With the season on the line, the Phillies rose to the task and took 4 of 6 games from both the Marlins and the Braves. One of those games was a miraculous come from behind win in the ninth inning against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins. That win is even more amazing considering it came against this year's leading Cy Young candidate in the 9th inning of a 3 hit shutout. While it was astounding that the Phillies scored 10 runs in that 9th inning, it is equally astounding given the fact that prior to that game the Phillies had only come from behind after trailing in the 8th inning or later to win 1 game this year. That's right, only a single win the entire year in that situation.
However, the magic continued against the Braves last Wednesday, after Atlanta had come back to tie the game 6-6 and send it to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Ryan Howard came up and hit his first extra-base hit against a left-handed pitcher. That hit was a grand slam that stole the game from the Braves. The next day, Tim Hudson had a shutout working into the 8th innning. In an inexplicable move, Bobby Cox let Hudson hit in the bottom of the 8th with a runner on 3rd base and only 1 out. The Phillies made it out of the inning without giving up a run. Hudson who was well over the 100 pitch mark (116 I think) and fatigued, came out in the 9th and promptly gave up 4 runs to loose the game. That's the first gift Bobby Cox has ever given the Phillies, even the Braves fans were booing him for that decision.
After all of that, you would think the Phillies had used up all of their magic. And, coming into the 9th inning against the Reds last night with a chance to move a game closer to the Astros, the thrill looked to be gone. The Reds had come back from a 6-1 deficit and taken a 10-6 lead heading into the 9th. Remember, the Phillies have only come back to win twice (after the Marlins) this year in this sort of situation, so things looked bleak. However, that's when the hitting started and the Phillies erupted for a 5 run 9th inning to take the game 11-10.
Twice in one week? Crayziness you say? Certainly. So maybe a higher power is at work here. This sort of stuff never happens to the Phillies, and this late in the season during a playoff run to boot.
Stars Aligning
Looking forward, how do the Phillies chances look now? The often discussed schedule disadvantage the Phillies had on September 9th has now turned into a great advantage today. The Phillies finish up the season at the Reds, home against the Mets and at the struggling Nationals. The Astros finish up the season at a very tough Cubs team, at the Cardinals, and the finale at home against the same tough Cubs team. The Cubs will be the Phillies fan's second favorite team the rest of the way.
Aligned star one...facing the Cubs is significant because Greg Maddux is trying to win 15 games for the 18th straight year, already a major league record. He currently has 13 wins, and the Cubs are giving him 2 more starts, the first against Pittsburgh, and if he wins that game, the second start would be the season finale against the Astros. Maddux is very determined to win right now and has a 2.53 ERA and 3 wins in his 5 September starts.
Star two...Roger Clemens is also hurting and his next start is uncertain. He was supposed to oppose Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs today, but is bothered by a strained hamstring, forcing the Astros to start Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio, the former Phillies farm hand that was traded as part of the deal for Billy Wagner, could help the Phillies after all by loosing today to the Cubs. Of course, as I write this, the Cubs have given up 2 runs in the top of the first, that's alright though, the stars are aligned in the Phillies favor, and not the star of the Astros (we hope).
Star three...if the Phillies should end up the season tied with the Astros, there would be a one game playoff in Philadelphia. That's significant since the Phillies would be making a short trip back from Washington while the Astros would have to make a long trip in from Houston. Not to mention the home field advantage.
Star four...the Phillis head home to play the Mets after the Reds series. As reported by NY Newsday, the Mets are considering shutting Pedro Martinez down for the remainder of the season, rather than lead off the series against the Phillies.
Star five...the Nationals have gone to a 4 man rotation, meaning that Livan Hernandez's last start of the year should be in their final game against the Marlins, and he would miss the final series against the Phillies entirely.
All the Phillies need to do is win one more game than the Astros and find themselves with the Wild Card lead. Win 2 more than the Astros and the Phillies can avoid a one game playoff. The stars are indeed aligned, and this season is squarely in the Phillies hands. It should be a phantastic phinish to the season.
Random Thoughts
Thank the stars for Ryan Howard. This kid should defnitely win the Roookie of the Year Award. His stats are there 20HR / 56RBI / .290 BA, (leading rookies in HR and RBI with only half a season played) but his impact on the team is what should win it for him. Without Howard, the Phillies would be playing for next year right now. Message to Phillies management -- You have to keep Howard around for next year and beyond...Props to Jon Leiber for pitching like an ace this late in the year, and for dominating Atlanta in his career. Leiber's last 8 games against Atlanta 1.83ERA / .229BAA...Ryan Madson is really struggling lately, that Howard grand slam and last night's heroics wouldn't have been necessary if Madson had pitched scoreless innings both those games. Maybe the Phillies should be using Aaron Fultz in Madson's spot right now...David Bell is really making up for his early season misery, a grand slam last week, and a game winning 2 run shot last night. We didn't mean everything we said about you before David. Keep up the good work...JRoll is out of sight right now with a 28 game hitting streak. Hopefully it is finally getting through to Rollins -- Get on base, use your speed, and you will score with the lineup the Phillies have...Abreu continues to impress by playing through multiple injuries and still producing. He is a true gamer and the Phillies are lucky to have him.
11 September 2005
Window of Opportunity Still Open
It has been tough to write about the Phillies this month, with the heart-wrenching losses they have endured against key foes in the Wild Card race. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Phillies were in control of their destiny..."All we have to do is win games" was the battle cry, and heading into key games against all Wild Card contending teams, hopes were running high.
The first series against the Mets started out dubious, with a 4-6 loss, the Phillies 3rd in a row, and things were looking like they might fall apart. But, the team pulled through to win the series, and started off with a win against the Nationals. Now, things were looking good, fans were wondering how many games up on the Astros we could be if the team were to win the series against the Nationals and take the series against the Astros. 2, maybe 3 or possibly a 4 game lead was likely. And, what about the division leading Braves, there was a real possibility of getting with in a couple of games of Atlanta.
Then, the worst-case scenario happened, the Phillies drop 5 in a row, including a 3 game sweep by the Astros.
Deja-vu all over again?
It certainly was beginning to feel like last year when the Phillies were starting to make a charge in the division and had just come off of a sweep (the Met's if I recall) and headed in to play a floundering Astros team. The Phillies were promptly swept, then went out and sweep a 4 game series against the Rockies, when they faced off against the Astros again. Of course, the Phillies were swept a second time and never really recovered to challenge for the division or the Wild Card again. Last year, the damage was done by Carlos Beltran. He actually damaged more than the Phillies last year in his heroic charge to within a game of the World Series. This year, the Astros are doing the damage with their starting pitching, and good pitching always seems to shut down the Phillies. In two years, the Phillies are 0-12 against the Astros, and at key points in the year, hopefully they will be on the early part of the Phillies schedule next year.
The Pesky Fish
Coming into the Malins series, the Phillies were facing a desparate situation and had to win the series, and really needed to sweep the fish to stay in the race. Goal accomplished in the 12-5 drubbing of the first game, and things were really looking up last night with Brett Meyers on the hill and the Phillies leading the game late, when another one of those heart-wrenching losses occured. "Not again" you were saying, "it couldn't possibly be another one-run loss." Yep, that's what happened, the Phillies 4th one-run loss in the past 8 games.
Coming into the final game of the series, the Phillies were in a must-win situation. Lose this game and the team falls 3 games behind the fish and further behind the Astros. Luckily, the bats came alive and the game turned into an 11-1 laugher. With the Astros dropping their game to the Breweres, the Phillies have managed to keep within 1 1/2 games of the Wild Card leading Astros. Winning 2 was great, but the Phillies really should have swept, especially when none of the Marlin's starters in the series made it past the 3rd inning.
Looking Ahead
The next week of games is crucial to deciding the Phillies post-season fate. The Braves come to town for 3 games, then the Phillies head out to Florida and Atlanta. First, the good news, the Wild Card race is essentially down to the Astros, Marlins and Phillies. The Astros and Marlins play each other, so one of the teams will take a hit (hopefully thats the Astros if we know what's good for us).
Now the bad news...it looks like Vincente Padilla could be done for the season. Prior to the All-Star break, you might have said "Who cares?". But since the break, Padilla has been on fire and pitching up to his often cited "potential". He is definitely being skipped tomorrow, but hopefully he can pitch his final 3 turns in the rotation. Robinson Tejeda is also hurting, meaning the Phillies will be leaning on Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd to turn in some strong innings. This creates some tough match-ups agains the Braves:
Monday: Brito vs. Hudson
Tuesday: Floyd vs. Thompson
Wednesday: Lidle vs. Ramirez
Hudson is one of the Brave's aces and Floyd has a 20.25 ERA against Atlanta. Yes, the odds are stacked agains the team heare, at least the Phillies won't have to tangle with John Smoltz.
The goal for the next 3 series is to win each of them some-how, some-way. Yes, that's the goal of any series played, but if the Phillies can take 2 out of 3 against the Braves-Marlins-Braves, then their post-season chances will look a lot brighter. Drop three-in-a-row again, and it will be time to start thinking about next season.
The window of opportunity is still open, and if the Phillies can just win, they will be in control of their destiny.
Random Thoughts
Kudos to Jimmy Rollins for putting together a 17 game hitting streak. As everyone knows, as Rollins OBP goes, so does the Phillies offense, and he is capable of maintaining a hot streak through the remainder of the season, which would be good news to the club...Double kudos to Ryan Howard for doing his best Jim Thome impersonation. This kid is looking like the real deal, posting 16HR / 44BI / .286 in 69 games this year. That projects out to 38 HR / 103 BI. If he can learn how to hit lefties, Howard could be a mainstay for a long time. So what should the Phillies do about Thome? That's a topic for another time...As long as we are handing out kudos, let's pass some along to the starting pitching. Lieber has been lights-out lately, Padilla has been great and Meyers has kept up his quality starts, all leading to close games and solid innings pitched, lessening the stress on the bullpen.
The first series against the Mets started out dubious, with a 4-6 loss, the Phillies 3rd in a row, and things were looking like they might fall apart. But, the team pulled through to win the series, and started off with a win against the Nationals. Now, things were looking good, fans were wondering how many games up on the Astros we could be if the team were to win the series against the Nationals and take the series against the Astros. 2, maybe 3 or possibly a 4 game lead was likely. And, what about the division leading Braves, there was a real possibility of getting with in a couple of games of Atlanta.
Then, the worst-case scenario happened, the Phillies drop 5 in a row, including a 3 game sweep by the Astros.
Deja-vu all over again?
It certainly was beginning to feel like last year when the Phillies were starting to make a charge in the division and had just come off of a sweep (the Met's if I recall) and headed in to play a floundering Astros team. The Phillies were promptly swept, then went out and sweep a 4 game series against the Rockies, when they faced off against the Astros again. Of course, the Phillies were swept a second time and never really recovered to challenge for the division or the Wild Card again. Last year, the damage was done by Carlos Beltran. He actually damaged more than the Phillies last year in his heroic charge to within a game of the World Series. This year, the Astros are doing the damage with their starting pitching, and good pitching always seems to shut down the Phillies. In two years, the Phillies are 0-12 against the Astros, and at key points in the year, hopefully they will be on the early part of the Phillies schedule next year.
The Pesky Fish
Coming into the Malins series, the Phillies were facing a desparate situation and had to win the series, and really needed to sweep the fish to stay in the race. Goal accomplished in the 12-5 drubbing of the first game, and things were really looking up last night with Brett Meyers on the hill and the Phillies leading the game late, when another one of those heart-wrenching losses occured. "Not again" you were saying, "it couldn't possibly be another one-run loss." Yep, that's what happened, the Phillies 4th one-run loss in the past 8 games.
Coming into the final game of the series, the Phillies were in a must-win situation. Lose this game and the team falls 3 games behind the fish and further behind the Astros. Luckily, the bats came alive and the game turned into an 11-1 laugher. With the Astros dropping their game to the Breweres, the Phillies have managed to keep within 1 1/2 games of the Wild Card leading Astros. Winning 2 was great, but the Phillies really should have swept, especially when none of the Marlin's starters in the series made it past the 3rd inning.
Looking Ahead
The next week of games is crucial to deciding the Phillies post-season fate. The Braves come to town for 3 games, then the Phillies head out to Florida and Atlanta. First, the good news, the Wild Card race is essentially down to the Astros, Marlins and Phillies. The Astros and Marlins play each other, so one of the teams will take a hit (hopefully thats the Astros if we know what's good for us).
Now the bad news...it looks like Vincente Padilla could be done for the season. Prior to the All-Star break, you might have said "Who cares?". But since the break, Padilla has been on fire and pitching up to his often cited "potential". He is definitely being skipped tomorrow, but hopefully he can pitch his final 3 turns in the rotation. Robinson Tejeda is also hurting, meaning the Phillies will be leaning on Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd to turn in some strong innings. This creates some tough match-ups agains the Braves:
Monday: Brito vs. Hudson
Tuesday: Floyd vs. Thompson
Wednesday: Lidle vs. Ramirez
Hudson is one of the Brave's aces and Floyd has a 20.25 ERA against Atlanta. Yes, the odds are stacked agains the team heare, at least the Phillies won't have to tangle with John Smoltz.
The goal for the next 3 series is to win each of them some-how, some-way. Yes, that's the goal of any series played, but if the Phillies can take 2 out of 3 against the Braves-Marlins-Braves, then their post-season chances will look a lot brighter. Drop three-in-a-row again, and it will be time to start thinking about next season.
The window of opportunity is still open, and if the Phillies can just win, they will be in control of their destiny.
Random Thoughts
Kudos to Jimmy Rollins for putting together a 17 game hitting streak. As everyone knows, as Rollins OBP goes, so does the Phillies offense, and he is capable of maintaining a hot streak through the remainder of the season, which would be good news to the club...Double kudos to Ryan Howard for doing his best Jim Thome impersonation. This kid is looking like the real deal, posting 16HR / 44BI / .286 in 69 games this year. That projects out to 38 HR / 103 BI. If he can learn how to hit lefties, Howard could be a mainstay for a long time. So what should the Phillies do about Thome? That's a topic for another time...As long as we are handing out kudos, let's pass some along to the starting pitching. Lieber has been lights-out lately, Padilla has been great and Meyers has kept up his quality starts, all leading to close games and solid innings pitched, lessening the stress on the bullpen.
28 August 2005
Please Release Cormier, Please
While watching the Diamondbacks and Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, I was very disturbed with Charlie Manuels choice to use Rheal Cormier.
With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.
Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.
Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.
In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:
Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353
Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."
Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.
The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.
Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.
With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.
Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.
With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.
Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.
Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.
In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:
Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353
Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."
Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.
The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.
Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.
With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.
Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.
22 August 2005
On a Roll, Let's Keep it Going
The September pennant stretch is quickly approaching, and the Phillies have put themselves into the thick of contention. With just 37 games remaining, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in the Wild Card lead and only 3 1/2 games behind the Braves for the N.L. East Division Title.
Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.
After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.
Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.
Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.
Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.
Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.
After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.
Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.
Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.
Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.
11 August 2005
Thome is Done. Does Anyone Care?
Don't take that title the wrong way. Jim Thome has certainly been a dominant force in the middle of the Phillies lineup the past couple of years, averaging 45HR, 118BI, and his production will certainly be missed. The guy is also a favorite among teammates and fans alike, so you can't help but feel bad for Big Jim, knowing that he wants to play and produce as much as anyone else wants him too. But, the Phillies now have to move on knowing that Thome is 99% likely to have season ending surgery. We all wish him the best and hope for a speedy recovery.
Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.
Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA
Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.
Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.
Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.
While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.
The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.
If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.
Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.
Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA
Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.
Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.
Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.
While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.
The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.
If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.
03 August 2005
Handicapping the Atlanta Braves
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.
This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.
The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.
Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.
The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.
The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.
The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.
The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.
The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.
This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.
The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.
Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.
The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.
The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.
The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.
The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.
The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?
02 August 2005
Handicapping the Washington Nationals
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
01 August 2005
Handicapping the New York Mets
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.
At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.
Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.
Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.
Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead
David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.
The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.
The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.
At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.
Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.
Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.
Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead
David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.
The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.
The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.
29 July 2005
Handicapping the Florida Marlins
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.
As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.
Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.
The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.
The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.
The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.
The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.
As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.
Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.
The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.
The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.
The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.
The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.
28 July 2005
Handicapping the Chicago Cubs
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
27 July 2005
Handicapping the Milwaukee Brewers
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.
Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July
And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague
And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games
All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.
Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.
The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.
The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.
One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.
So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.
The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?
The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.
Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July
And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague
And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games
All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.
Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.
The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.
The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.
One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.
So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.
The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?
The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.
26 July 2005
Handicapping the Arizona Diamondbacks
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.
Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).
The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.
The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.
The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".
The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.
Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).
The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.
The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.
The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".
The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.
25 July 2005
Handicapping the Pennant Race
With 99 games in the books and the Phillies 5 games over .500, and 3 games out in the N.L. East, the team is solidly in the playoff race. With 2 playoff spots available -- the division title and the wildcard -- let's take a look at the competition.
Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.
The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.
Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.
The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.
Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.
Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.
The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.
The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.
The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.
Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.
The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.
Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.
The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.
Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.
Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.
The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.
The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.
The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.
22 July 2005
Worrell Set Free
Tim Worell was traded to the Diamonbacks today for Matt Kata. This appears to be a matter of setting Worrell free from Philadelphia. According to Ed Wade, "He expressed an interest in pitching closer to home and we tried to see if there was a deal out there that could accommodate both him and the club." Looks like the former was satisfied, though it's not apparent how this accommodates the club. The Phillies are paying the rest of Worrell's salary and receive Matt Kata, an infield spare part that doesn't figure into the plans either this year or in the future, with the Phillies infield and bench pretty much set. Unless Kata is part of a another trade package, this seems to be a case of setting Worrell free.
This is an unfortunate turn of events, as Worrell was pitching fairly well since his return. 5 2/3 innings pitched allowing 2 earned runs, now Worrell has an outside shot at closing for the Diamondbacks. Phillies fans were surely envisioning him returning to form and becoming an important part of the bullpen in a playoff race.
Does this signal the start of selling season for the Phillies? Let's hope not as the team is only 5 games out of the division and the wildcard race. Next up we will preview the wildcard contenders to see how the Phillies stack up.
This is an unfortunate turn of events, as Worrell was pitching fairly well since his return. 5 2/3 innings pitched allowing 2 earned runs, now Worrell has an outside shot at closing for the Diamondbacks. Phillies fans were surely envisioning him returning to form and becoming an important part of the bullpen in a playoff race.
Does this signal the start of selling season for the Phillies? Let's hope not as the team is only 5 games out of the division and the wildcard race. Next up we will preview the wildcard contenders to see how the Phillies stack up.
17 July 2005
Streaking Again
The Phillies have just finished off the Florida Marlins to take 3 out of 4 games from the fish. This marks their second straight series win after taking 2 out of 3 from the Washington Nationals or 5-2 the last 2 series. This after a going 7-15 since June 14.
The Phillies are a streaky team.
For better, or worse, this is how the team is constructed. With the pleathora of home runs that the Bank allows, the Phillies tend to swing for the fences more than most, resulting in a large number of team strike outs. Add to this a starting staff that can be great at times, but mediocre at others...mix in a lack of patience at the plate from Rollins, and you have a formula for a streaky team. Luckily it has been reported that Rollins is becoming more patient on mlb.com. We shall see, as he goes, generally so does the Phillies offensive attack.
Is a prolonged winning streak on the horizon?
Probably, the triple-A Dodgers are coming to town and look like easy pickings. After that it's San Diego at home and Houston on the road. The Phillies have eaten up the NL West (7-2), and the Astros have lost their last 3, so some the Phillies should win their share. After that the Phillies play a 4 game set against the also triple-A Rockies. It would be surprising if the Phillies don't end up at least 7-5 after this stretch, making an overall 17-7 streak possible. Couple this with the 7-15 streak from June 14 - July 7 and the team would be a combined 24-22 and 5 games over .500. Still not a wonderful record overall, but good enough to maintain a solid spot in the wildcard race as well as the division.
Random Thoughts
The Phillies are in second place in the wildcard race, 4 games behind the Braves, quite amazing when you think about how bad they played the month prior to the All-Star break...Are the Braves really going to win the division again? It certainly is set in their favor with Chipper, Hampton and Hudson all back to active duty. Maybe Smoltz and Andrew Jones need to go down for the NL East to hold down the Braves...If the Braves win the division, can the Nationals take the wildcard? Less likely, this team has been way too lucky, see the previous posts, more than likely the Nationals end up in 4th place by the end of the season...Ryan Howard is looking impressive filling in for Thome, hitting 3 homers and knocking in 11 since Jim went down. With the way Tome had been hitting, maybe he should take the time to make sure he is fully healthy before coming back. Howard can hold the fort until then...Speaking of Howard, he is doing a great job of raising his trade value, which could be important for the Phillies landing a top line starter. However, why not keep Howard on the bench, spelling Thome when needed, to provide that all important bench power? That would require a solution for the 5th starter...Rumor has it that Cole Hamels is lighting up the minors and could be on the fast track to the big club, maybe even this year. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to bring him up and see what he can do. And, why not bring up Gavin Floyd again to see if he can get back the magic?...Kudos to Vincente Padilla for answering the call. Apparently he was 1 start away from loosing his spot in the rotation prior to the All-Star Break. Since then, 2-0 with 13 scoreless innings pitched. Hopefully he has figured things out, the club really needs him...Kudos also go to Milt Thompson for teaching Jimmy Rollins the afor mentioned patience at the plate. A .545 on-base percentage and 4 walks this past week is a good start.
The Phillies are a streaky team.
For better, or worse, this is how the team is constructed. With the pleathora of home runs that the Bank allows, the Phillies tend to swing for the fences more than most, resulting in a large number of team strike outs. Add to this a starting staff that can be great at times, but mediocre at others...mix in a lack of patience at the plate from Rollins, and you have a formula for a streaky team. Luckily it has been reported that Rollins is becoming more patient on mlb.com. We shall see, as he goes, generally so does the Phillies offensive attack.
Is a prolonged winning streak on the horizon?
Probably, the triple-A Dodgers are coming to town and look like easy pickings. After that it's San Diego at home and Houston on the road. The Phillies have eaten up the NL West (7-2), and the Astros have lost their last 3, so some the Phillies should win their share. After that the Phillies play a 4 game set against the also triple-A Rockies. It would be surprising if the Phillies don't end up at least 7-5 after this stretch, making an overall 17-7 streak possible. Couple this with the 7-15 streak from June 14 - July 7 and the team would be a combined 24-22 and 5 games over .500. Still not a wonderful record overall, but good enough to maintain a solid spot in the wildcard race as well as the division.
Random Thoughts
The Phillies are in second place in the wildcard race, 4 games behind the Braves, quite amazing when you think about how bad they played the month prior to the All-Star break...Are the Braves really going to win the division again? It certainly is set in their favor with Chipper, Hampton and Hudson all back to active duty. Maybe Smoltz and Andrew Jones need to go down for the NL East to hold down the Braves...If the Braves win the division, can the Nationals take the wildcard? Less likely, this team has been way too lucky, see the previous posts, more than likely the Nationals end up in 4th place by the end of the season...Ryan Howard is looking impressive filling in for Thome, hitting 3 homers and knocking in 11 since Jim went down. With the way Tome had been hitting, maybe he should take the time to make sure he is fully healthy before coming back. Howard can hold the fort until then...Speaking of Howard, he is doing a great job of raising his trade value, which could be important for the Phillies landing a top line starter. However, why not keep Howard on the bench, spelling Thome when needed, to provide that all important bench power? That would require a solution for the 5th starter...Rumor has it that Cole Hamels is lighting up the minors and could be on the fast track to the big club, maybe even this year. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to bring him up and see what he can do. And, why not bring up Gavin Floyd again to see if he can get back the magic?...Kudos to Vincente Padilla for answering the call. Apparently he was 1 start away from loosing his spot in the rotation prior to the All-Star Break. Since then, 2-0 with 13 scoreless innings pitched. Hopefully he has figured things out, the club really needs him...Kudos also go to Milt Thompson for teaching Jimmy Rollins the afor mentioned patience at the plate. A .545 on-base percentage and 4 walks this past week is a good start.
10 July 2005
The Power of One
One is a powerful number. Sunday the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals by one in the bottom of the 12th inning to move one game closer to the division lead. Atlanta also lost, moving the Phillies one game closer to the wild card position. This game also marked the 4th game in a row that was decided by one run. The Phillies have won 2 and lost 2 of those contests.
What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.
The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.
While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.
What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.
The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.
While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.
05 July 2005
Buyers or Sellers
The Phillies limped past the half-way point of the season with a 41-40 record through 81 games, and the annual ritual in baseball is quickly approaching. That's right, it's now just 26 days until the trade deadline and teams will be deciding if they are buyers or sellers over the next couple of weeks.
So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.
First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.
Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.
Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.
No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.
What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.
Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.
Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.
The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."
Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.
So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.
First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.
Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.
Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.
No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.
What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.
Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.
Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.
The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."
Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.
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