With 99 games in the books and the Phillies 5 games over .500, and 3 games out in the N.L. East, the team is solidly in the playoff race. With 2 playoff spots available -- the division title and the wildcard -- let's take a look at the competition.
Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.
The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.
Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.
The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.
Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.
Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.
The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.
The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.
The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.
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