The Phillies made a minor signing today getting So Taguchi. Taguchi was the 4th outfielder for St. Louis the last several years. He is adept at getting on base with a .335OBP, but besides that he doesn't offer much in the way of power or speed (just a little of both). He is also a good defensive outfielder, so will probably be getting some time in left field for Burrell in the late innings.
Not sure what this means for Chris Snelling, it probably depends on how many pitchers the Phillies carry. Taguchi is probably a better hitter than Snelling, but with less upside.
23 December 2007
21 December 2007
Chad Durbin to the Phillies...who, what, why?
The Phillies have signed Chad Durbin to a one year $900K deal. Definitely a low risk signing, but hard to see the upside.
Durbin has been around since 1999, but has pitched more than 50 innings only 4 of those years:
2000 72.1 IN / 8.21 ERA
2001 179 IN / 4.93 ERA
2004 51.1 IN / 6.66 ERA
2007 127.2 IN / 4.72 ERA
Those aren't real exciting numbers for sure. It appears Durbin will compete for the 5th starters position, but it's hard to imagine him winning the spot over a healthy Adam Eaton. Prior to last season's mess, Eaton did have a career 4.40 ERA. Durbin has a career 5.75 ERA, including last year's "career year".
In looking over last season's stats there is a silver lining on Durbin, if you take away his first 3 games where he gave up 16 runs in 13.2 innings, he actually compiled a 4.03 ERA.
So it appears that Durbin will compete for the starting rotation and be the long man out of the bullpen if he doesn't start. He could actually provide some solid innings pitched in either role, with the occasional bad outing sprinkled in between some solid outings. So there, Durbin provides some sort of upside.
The disappointing news out of this signing is the news that the Phillies are done searching for a starting pitcher or 3rd baseman. They are still interested in a left-handed reliever, which would appear to take Akinori Otsuka off the list.
If this is the end of the signings for the Phils, the bottom line is the same offense as last years with a mild upgrade to the pitching staff. Enough to compete, but does that put them over the top? Probably not.
Durbin has been around since 1999, but has pitched more than 50 innings only 4 of those years:
2000 72.1 IN / 8.21 ERA
2001 179 IN / 4.93 ERA
2004 51.1 IN / 6.66 ERA
2007 127.2 IN / 4.72 ERA
Those aren't real exciting numbers for sure. It appears Durbin will compete for the 5th starters position, but it's hard to imagine him winning the spot over a healthy Adam Eaton. Prior to last season's mess, Eaton did have a career 4.40 ERA. Durbin has a career 5.75 ERA, including last year's "career year".
In looking over last season's stats there is a silver lining on Durbin, if you take away his first 3 games where he gave up 16 runs in 13.2 innings, he actually compiled a 4.03 ERA.
So it appears that Durbin will compete for the starting rotation and be the long man out of the bullpen if he doesn't start. He could actually provide some solid innings pitched in either role, with the occasional bad outing sprinkled in between some solid outings. So there, Durbin provides some sort of upside.
The disappointing news out of this signing is the news that the Phillies are done searching for a starting pitcher or 3rd baseman. They are still interested in a left-handed reliever, which would appear to take Akinori Otsuka off the list.
If this is the end of the signings for the Phils, the bottom line is the same offense as last years with a mild upgrade to the pitching staff. Enough to compete, but does that put them over the top? Probably not.
20 December 2007
Phillies Solidify their Outfield with Jenkins
The Phillies have signed Geoff Jenkins to a 2 year, $13M deal with a vesting option for a 3rd year at $7.5M. The plan is to have Jenkins platoon in right field with Jason Werth, and when you look at the career numbers between the two, you can see why this makes sense.
Jenkins
vs RHP: .288 AVG / .358 OBP / .525 SLG / .883 OPS
vs LHP: .242 AVG / .313 OBP / .408 SLG / .721 OPS
Werth
vs RHP: .249 AVG / .342 OBP / .408 SLG / .750 OPS
vs LHP: .284 AVG / .378 OBP / .486 SLG / .864 OPS
Combined, this nets out to a right fielder with numbers around:
.286 AVG / .368 OBP / .500 SLG / .870 OPS
Not bad really when you look at it on paper. This seems to be a pretty savvy signing by Gillick to get a right fielder for around 7M per year, committed for only 2 years. Consider that Aaron Rowand costs twice as much and required double the commitment in years for a career line of:
.286 AVG / .343 OBP / .462 SLG / .805 OPS
Based on career stats, the right field platoon provides more offense to the Phillies than Rowand. The counter point of course is that Rowand's career year this year might be his regular output going forward, and that's exactly what the Giants paid for, but at $13M a year, it's a gamble. You can also argue that Jenkins is in decline, but what you can't argue is his great success vs. righties. He is also a plus defender, and when you combine that with Victorino's strong defensive abilities moving over to center, there should be no hit to the outfield defense.
Overall looks like a smart deal for the Phillies that plugs one of the holes in the team.
Jenkins
vs RHP: .288 AVG / .358 OBP / .525 SLG / .883 OPS
vs LHP: .242 AVG / .313 OBP / .408 SLG / .721 OPS
Werth
vs RHP: .249 AVG / .342 OBP / .408 SLG / .750 OPS
vs LHP: .284 AVG / .378 OBP / .486 SLG / .864 OPS
Combined, this nets out to a right fielder with numbers around:
.286 AVG / .368 OBP / .500 SLG / .870 OPS
Not bad really when you look at it on paper. This seems to be a pretty savvy signing by Gillick to get a right fielder for around 7M per year, committed for only 2 years. Consider that Aaron Rowand costs twice as much and required double the commitment in years for a career line of:
.286 AVG / .343 OBP / .462 SLG / .805 OPS
Based on career stats, the right field platoon provides more offense to the Phillies than Rowand. The counter point of course is that Rowand's career year this year might be his regular output going forward, and that's exactly what the Giants paid for, but at $13M a year, it's a gamble. You can also argue that Jenkins is in decline, but what you can't argue is his great success vs. righties. He is also a plus defender, and when you combine that with Victorino's strong defensive abilities moving over to center, there should be no hit to the outfield defense.
Overall looks like a smart deal for the Phillies that plugs one of the holes in the team.
14 December 2007
Geoff Jenkins Nearing a Decision
According to Ken Rosenthal, Geoff Jenkins is deciding between the Phillies and the Padres. Jenkins' name has been brought up numerous times in relation to the Phillies, so this isn't much of a surprise. Jenkins would be the left-handed platoon mate for Jason Werth that the Phillies were hoping for.
Jenkins is a power hitter with some pretty decent power years. From 2003-2005 he averaged over 25HR and 90RBI. The last couple of years have seen his power numbers drop off, but it's really the splits the Phillies are interested in.
Jenkins career splits look like this (left/right):
AVG .242/.288
OBP .313/.358
SLG .408/.525
OPS .721/.882
He definitely looks perfect for a platoon, and would replace the production lost in Aaron Rowand. Now if the Phillies can just upgrade at 3rd, they can actually have a better offense than last year.
In other news, the Phillies are interested in Akinori Otsuka and are one of 9 teams reportedly interested in Mark Prior. Who isn't interested in Prior? Better move quick to get him.
Jenkins is a power hitter with some pretty decent power years. From 2003-2005 he averaged over 25HR and 90RBI. The last couple of years have seen his power numbers drop off, but it's really the splits the Phillies are interested in.
Jenkins career splits look like this (left/right):
AVG .242/.288
OBP .313/.358
SLG .408/.525
OPS .721/.882
He definitely looks perfect for a platoon, and would replace the production lost in Aaron Rowand. Now if the Phillies can just upgrade at 3rd, they can actually have a better offense than last year.
In other news, the Phillies are interested in Akinori Otsuka and are one of 9 teams reportedly interested in Mark Prior. Who isn't interested in Prior? Better move quick to get him.
13 December 2007
Non-Tender Candidates
Since the Phillies have missed out on any trades beyond Brad Lidge (good one BTW) and free agents, it's time to turn the attention to the non-tender list to see who might be out there to fill the open spots on the roster. It's pretty common knowledge that the Phillies are looking for a starter, reliever, 3rd baseman and an outfielder to either platoon with Werth or just be the 4th outfielder. So who strikes us as most interesting for each position?
STARTING PITCHERS
Mark Prior
Hard to believe, but the Cubs non-tendered Prior rather than pay him 3.5M to see what he's got this year. Possibly the best player on the non-tender list, Prior represents the opportunity to sign an ace for 5th starter dollars, and not even Eaton sort of dollars, think half of that. Seems like a no-brainer if Prior is interested. Of course he could be injured all season again, but a 3-4M flier seems reasonable.
After Prior there isn't much out there, Josh Towers, Mark Hendrickson or Mike O'Connor anyone? They do represent depth, but the Phillies may be better off with what they have now.
RELIEF PITCHERS
Some interesting names here, Kiko Calero was available for a few hours, but the A's snatched him back up.
Akinori Otsuka
Potential closer material if he is healthy, of course that's a big IF. Reports are saying that he is throwing fine, so he could be a nice addition, though he is probably looking for a pretty nice contract. The Rangers let him go because Otsuka wasn't hip on a "shared-risk" deal. Guess that means he wants guaranteed money.
Some other interesting names, Brendan Donnelly looks like he might miss the entire season because of Tommy John surgery and being named in the Mitchell report doesn't help. Matt Wise is an interesting choice with a 4.18 career ERA and a price tag lower than Otsuka.
3RD BASE
No luck on Crede being non-tendered, could always be a trade given the Phillies and White Sox recent history, and you wouldn't think it would take much to get Crede.
Dallas McPherson
A highly touted youngster in the Angels organization missed all of last year with back surgery, so he may be damaged goods. The Angels are also set on the offensive side of the field, so McPherson was expendable. Seems like he might be young enough to recover well from back surgery (unlike say...Scott Rolen). He projects to be a 20HR 80RBI guy if healthy, maybe more.
Another name of interest is the reclamation project that is Morgen Ensberg, not sure what happened after his 36HR year of 2005, but playing in San Diego couldn't have helped. Still he may be a better option than McPherson, he did hit 12HR last year in half a seasons worth of ABs.
OUTFIELD
Willie Harris
The Phillies seem set on a left-handed outfielder to platoon with Werth, so maybe that means Willie Harris would fit. The speedy, solid defender for the Braves last year is looking for a job. He would be an interesting replacement for Michael Bourn. Seems like essentially the same player with slightly less speed.
Jason Tyner is a lefty and available, he gets on base pretty well, but doesn't do much else. If the Phillies decide to go in another direction, Kevin Mench is available, but has already been marked off the list by the Phillies because of his right handed-ness. Jason Lane hit 26HR 78RBI in 2005, not much since, also not left-handed.
STARTING PITCHERS
Mark Prior
Hard to believe, but the Cubs non-tendered Prior rather than pay him 3.5M to see what he's got this year. Possibly the best player on the non-tender list, Prior represents the opportunity to sign an ace for 5th starter dollars, and not even Eaton sort of dollars, think half of that. Seems like a no-brainer if Prior is interested. Of course he could be injured all season again, but a 3-4M flier seems reasonable.
After Prior there isn't much out there, Josh Towers, Mark Hendrickson or Mike O'Connor anyone? They do represent depth, but the Phillies may be better off with what they have now.
RELIEF PITCHERS
Some interesting names here, Kiko Calero was available for a few hours, but the A's snatched him back up.
Akinori Otsuka
Potential closer material if he is healthy, of course that's a big IF. Reports are saying that he is throwing fine, so he could be a nice addition, though he is probably looking for a pretty nice contract. The Rangers let him go because Otsuka wasn't hip on a "shared-risk" deal. Guess that means he wants guaranteed money.
Some other interesting names, Brendan Donnelly looks like he might miss the entire season because of Tommy John surgery and being named in the Mitchell report doesn't help. Matt Wise is an interesting choice with a 4.18 career ERA and a price tag lower than Otsuka.
3RD BASE
No luck on Crede being non-tendered, could always be a trade given the Phillies and White Sox recent history, and you wouldn't think it would take much to get Crede.
Dallas McPherson
A highly touted youngster in the Angels organization missed all of last year with back surgery, so he may be damaged goods. The Angels are also set on the offensive side of the field, so McPherson was expendable. Seems like he might be young enough to recover well from back surgery (unlike say...Scott Rolen). He projects to be a 20HR 80RBI guy if healthy, maybe more.
Another name of interest is the reclamation project that is Morgen Ensberg, not sure what happened after his 36HR year of 2005, but playing in San Diego couldn't have helped. Still he may be a better option than McPherson, he did hit 12HR last year in half a seasons worth of ABs.
OUTFIELD
Willie Harris
The Phillies seem set on a left-handed outfielder to platoon with Werth, so maybe that means Willie Harris would fit. The speedy, solid defender for the Braves last year is looking for a job. He would be an interesting replacement for Michael Bourn. Seems like essentially the same player with slightly less speed.
Jason Tyner is a lefty and available, he gets on base pretty well, but doesn't do much else. If the Phillies decide to go in another direction, Kevin Mench is available, but has already been marked off the list by the Phillies because of his right handed-ness. Jason Lane hit 26HR 78RBI in 2005, not much since, also not left-handed.
12 December 2007
Rowand, Going, Going...Gone!
Looks like Aaron Rowand has signed with the Giants for 5 years and $60. So after all it was about the money and the years for Rowand. Too bad, but we wish him luck.
Now at least the Phillies aren't left hanging to find out what Rowand will do. The organization can finally move on. With an outfield of Burrell, Victorino and Werth (plus platoon mate), the offense should be roughly what it was last year, with perhaps a slight drop off, though it should be considered that Werth might put up similar numbers to Rowand next year given the opportunity. Victorino will be just as good if not better defensively for Rowand, so it could be a win for the Phillies to avoid the big contract.
The focus for the Phillies now -- beyond pitching -- should be 3rd base. Looks like there is a chance that Joe Crede could be non-tendered tomorrow providing a chance for the Phillies to sign a solid hitter, good defender at what would appear to be a low-risk price. Then the Phils can move Helms to the Marlins for a minor league player, middle reliever, or bag of balls (why exactly do the Marlins want Helms back? And to be their highest paid player to boot?). Dobbs could then be the platoon mate for Werth in right field. All would start to come together in the universe for the Phillies. Hey, maybe Mark Prior will be non-tendered as well and the Phillies could take a shot on grabbing a potential ace for very little.
Now at least the Phillies aren't left hanging to find out what Rowand will do. The organization can finally move on. With an outfield of Burrell, Victorino and Werth (plus platoon mate), the offense should be roughly what it was last year, with perhaps a slight drop off, though it should be considered that Werth might put up similar numbers to Rowand next year given the opportunity. Victorino will be just as good if not better defensively for Rowand, so it could be a win for the Phillies to avoid the big contract.
The focus for the Phillies now -- beyond pitching -- should be 3rd base. Looks like there is a chance that Joe Crede could be non-tendered tomorrow providing a chance for the Phillies to sign a solid hitter, good defender at what would appear to be a low-risk price. Then the Phils can move Helms to the Marlins for a minor league player, middle reliever, or bag of balls (why exactly do the Marlins want Helms back? And to be their highest paid player to boot?). Dobbs could then be the platoon mate for Werth in right field. All would start to come together in the universe for the Phillies. Hey, maybe Mark Prior will be non-tendered as well and the Phillies could take a shot on grabbing a potential ace for very little.
04 December 2007
Iguchi on 3rd?
Todd Zolecki reports in that Tadahito Iguchi may be open to playing third base for the Phillies. This is an interesting development as Iguchi was a great fill in for Chase Utley this season and seems to be a good clubhouse guy. The big question is can Iguchi play a major league 3rd base? His career .986 fielding percentage says that he is a pretty solid defender, but 2nd base is a long way from 3rd and quite a bit closer to the plate. Perhaps the bigger question is what sort of upgrade Iguchi would be for the Phillies at 3rd. His 2005-2006 seasons showed a nice bat with upside averaging 16HR, 70RBI, 12SB and a .280BA. Last year was a down year in BA until he came over to the Phillies, but his other numbers seemed in line.
An estimate of 2008 numbers, assuming he plays most of the season and has a small bump for playing in Citizens Bank and in a heavy hitting lineup:
20 HR
75 RBI
15 SB
.280 BA
Not too bad for a #6 or #7 hitter, and better than the alternatives.
An estimate of 2008 numbers, assuming he plays most of the season and has a small bump for playing in Citizens Bank and in a heavy hitting lineup:
20 HR
75 RBI
15 SB
.280 BA
Not too bad for a #6 or #7 hitter, and better than the alternatives.
03 December 2007
Bedard to the Phillies?
New rumor that I hadn't heard before coming from Jason Stark today. In his winter meeting notes he suggests that the Phillies have interest in the Orioles young ace Erik Bedard. For those unfamiliar with Bedard, he is a poor man's Santana with 15 and 13 wins the past 2 seasons, an average of about 200 Ks and 3.76 and 3.16 ERAs. All very gaudy numbers, especially for an American League pitcher who has to face the Yankees and Red Sox frequently. Let's put it another way, getting this guy makes Cole Hamels our #2. And the best part is that Bedard is team controlled through 2009, so no $20+M per year like Santana will cost.
The report claims that the Orioles want more than the price of Santana, and who can blame them, Bedard does represent a better deal for the acquiring team. While the Phillies probably don't have much of a chance at landing him, what would it take from the Phillies to make the Orioles think?
Let's start our own rumor...Victorino, Kendrick, Jason Jaramillo and Carlos Carrasco for Erik Bedard. The Orioles would definitely have to think about that one. Victorino is a Carl Crawford type player, Kendrick's value may never be higher, Jaramillo projects to a starting catcher in a year and Carrasco is one of the Phillies top pitching prospects. That's the sort of deal the Orioles are looking for. Is it a good deal for the Phillies? Short term it could be, but long-term that's a lot of talent to give up and pretty much strips the farm system bare, but if the team is looking to get a top tier rotation right away, this would probably get the job done.
The report claims that the Orioles want more than the price of Santana, and who can blame them, Bedard does represent a better deal for the acquiring team. While the Phillies probably don't have much of a chance at landing him, what would it take from the Phillies to make the Orioles think?
Let's start our own rumor...Victorino, Kendrick, Jason Jaramillo and Carlos Carrasco for Erik Bedard. The Orioles would definitely have to think about that one. Victorino is a Carl Crawford type player, Kendrick's value may never be higher, Jaramillo projects to a starting catcher in a year and Carrasco is one of the Phillies top pitching prospects. That's the sort of deal the Orioles are looking for. Is it a good deal for the Phillies? Short term it could be, but long-term that's a lot of talent to give up and pretty much strips the farm system bare, but if the team is looking to get a top tier rotation right away, this would probably get the job done.
01 December 2007
Looks like no Wolfie
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Padres have a preliminary agreement on a deal with Randy Wolf pending a physical. Looks like the Phillies hard sell couldn't get past Wolf's desire to pitch near home. To bad since a healthy Wolf would have been a welcome part of the Phillies rotation in 2008. Of course he could have also been Freddy Garcia round 2.
30 November 2007
Wolfpack Back?
Looks like the Phillies are making a serious run at bringing Randy Wolf back. Wolf left the Phillies last off-season to play for his hometown Dodgers, and while the departure was unfortunate, he pretty much left on good terms.
Honestly, the Phillies didn't seem to have a ton interest in keeping Wolf around given the time he missed the previous 2 years. Yes, he turned down a larger offer from the Phils to sign with the Dodgers last year, but it still didn't feel like the organization put their best foot forward. Now we hear that the entire front office is talking to him.
This year it looks like the Dodgers are the team not so interested in retaining Wolf's services. Not really sure why since he pitched like an Ace the first half of the year posting a 7-3 record and 3.73 ERA through June 1. Kind of reminds you of 2003 huh? Other than his final game of the season where he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings and was obviously not feeling right (he went on the DL after that game) he only game up more than 4 runs in one other outing.
Perhaps the Dodgers were concerned with the shoulder injury that sidelined him the rest of the season. For the Phillies, they look interested in taking him on as a low-risk, high-reward type pitcher who has the ability to be a solid number 2 or 3 in the rotation. Seems like a 2-3 year deal for 20-30M would get the job done.
If the injuries are in Wolf's past, this could be a vary savvy signing, he's probably the best available free agent pitcher who happens to be entering his age 31 season, which is usually a pitchers prime.
Honestly, the Phillies didn't seem to have a ton interest in keeping Wolf around given the time he missed the previous 2 years. Yes, he turned down a larger offer from the Phils to sign with the Dodgers last year, but it still didn't feel like the organization put their best foot forward. Now we hear that the entire front office is talking to him.
This year it looks like the Dodgers are the team not so interested in retaining Wolf's services. Not really sure why since he pitched like an Ace the first half of the year posting a 7-3 record and 3.73 ERA through June 1. Kind of reminds you of 2003 huh? Other than his final game of the season where he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings and was obviously not feeling right (he went on the DL after that game) he only game up more than 4 runs in one other outing.
Perhaps the Dodgers were concerned with the shoulder injury that sidelined him the rest of the season. For the Phillies, they look interested in taking him on as a low-risk, high-reward type pitcher who has the ability to be a solid number 2 or 3 in the rotation. Seems like a 2-3 year deal for 20-30M would get the job done.
If the injuries are in Wolf's past, this could be a vary savvy signing, he's probably the best available free agent pitcher who happens to be entering his age 31 season, which is usually a pitchers prime.
31 March 2007
Phillies Beat Mets for NL East Title!...on Paper
Fantasy Baseball is one of my passions. I've played in leagues since 1987 and have experienced the excitement of drafting Mike Schmidt, one of my favorite all-time players. This is where fantasy and reality begin to blur. While Schmidt put up very strong numbers in 1987 (35HR/113RBI/.293BA), keeping him on my roster in 1988 proved to be more of a problem (12HR/62RBI/.249BA). I did manage to finish in second place each season, but probably could have made it to first with a stronger hitter than Schmidt in my lineup.
In any case, it was a lesson learned. Something about weighing emotions vs. hard statistics, something successful fantasy baseball players are very adept at doing. In fact, because of my emotional attachment to the Phillies, I actually tend to undervalue most of their players heading into drafts so that I don't make the same mistake again. Of course, last year this meant passing up on Utley, Howard and Rollins (all fantasy studs) when I could have drafted them in good value positions.
This year I do have Howard and Burrell on one team and Utley on another, but keep missing out on Myers and Hamels, they are both going early than expected and right about the same time. Hamels went one pick ahead of Myers in one draft and Myers when a round before Hamels in another, both ahead of where it made sense to draft them based on the projections.
The relationship between fantasy and reality got me thinking when the news came out that Jimmy Rollins was proclaiming the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East. The emotion is great to hear from a team that had none through the Bowa era and early on in the Manuel era, (maybe it was the Abreu era) but was it just emotion, or does Jimmy Rollins have a point?
Mets fans of course like to point to last year when they ran away with the division and the Phillies were left in rebuilding mode only to find out they were good enough to compete for the Wild Card. As everyone knows, last year was last year and this year is different. It's not like the Mets won 14 straight division titles and have the right to proclaim themselves the team to beat. It was just one year.
The Hard Statistics
While preparing for my Fantasy drafts this year, I decided to take a look at how the Mets roster compares with the Phillies roster. First a bit about how I prepare. When projecting player statistics, I look at 3 sources; The Sporting News, ESPN and the Roto Wire. I take each of their projections and average them out to determine what is expected of every player in the draft. This gives me stats on the players most likely to be drafted and some that aren't. One caveat here, bench players and the bullpen aren't considered (yes, I know this is an area of concern for both teams, so maybe I'll cover that in a later blog).
Looking at fantasy projections may not be the best statistical research, especially for those hard core statisticians out there, and it doesn't take into effect the schedule, which benefits the Phillies, but it does provide some interesting results none-the-less.
What does seem most important in looking at the stats is determining how many runs will be scored by each team's hitters and how many runs will be given up by each teams pitchers. This should give some sort of indication of won-loss record.
Phillies Hitters (runs scored)
123 Jimmy Rollins
80 Shane Victorino
122 Chase Utley
110 Ryan Howard
81 Pat Burrell
71 Aaron Rowand
58 Wes Helms
60 Rod Barajas
------------------
705 Total
Phillies Pitchers (ERA)
3.99 Brett Myers
4.11 Cole Hamels
4.17 Freddy Garcia
4.43 Jamie Moyer
4.67 Adam Eaton
3.00 Tom Gordon
-------------------
4.19 ERA (Averaged based on Innings Pitched)
Mets Hitters (runs scored)
120 Jose Reyes
120 Carlos Beltran
103 David Wright
86 Carlos Delgado
61 Moises Alou
70 Shawn Green
57 Jose Valentin
70 Paul Lo Duca
--------------------
687 Total
Mets Pitchers (ERA)
3.92 Tom Glavine
4.39 Orlando Hernandez
4.35 John Maine
4.46 Mike Pelfrey*
3.83 Pedro Martinez*
5.70 Oliver Perez*
2.06 Billy Wagner
---------------------
4.22 ERA (Averaged based on Innings Pitched)
Note: It's not known when (or if) Pedro will pitch or who he will replace in the rotation, so Martinez, Perez and Pelfry were weighted with the same number of innings pitched between them (which is pretty much how the statistical sources had it as well).
The Final Analysis
As this study shows, the Phillies are again projected to lead the Mets in Runs scored 705 to 687 (starters only), but this year they are also projected to give up fewer runs per game 4.19 vs. 4.22.
Another interesting stat that comes out of this is the number of innings pitched by starters, where Phillies starters are projected to eat up 970 innings this season, the Mets starters are only projected to throw 895 innings. More thoughts on the effect that will have on the bullpens later.
For now Phillies fans can relish in the thought that Rollins is correct when he says they are the team to beat. Of course, that's why they play the games.
In any case, it was a lesson learned. Something about weighing emotions vs. hard statistics, something successful fantasy baseball players are very adept at doing. In fact, because of my emotional attachment to the Phillies, I actually tend to undervalue most of their players heading into drafts so that I don't make the same mistake again. Of course, last year this meant passing up on Utley, Howard and Rollins (all fantasy studs) when I could have drafted them in good value positions.
This year I do have Howard and Burrell on one team and Utley on another, but keep missing out on Myers and Hamels, they are both going early than expected and right about the same time. Hamels went one pick ahead of Myers in one draft and Myers when a round before Hamels in another, both ahead of where it made sense to draft them based on the projections.
The relationship between fantasy and reality got me thinking when the news came out that Jimmy Rollins was proclaiming the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East. The emotion is great to hear from a team that had none through the Bowa era and early on in the Manuel era, (maybe it was the Abreu era) but was it just emotion, or does Jimmy Rollins have a point?
Mets fans of course like to point to last year when they ran away with the division and the Phillies were left in rebuilding mode only to find out they were good enough to compete for the Wild Card. As everyone knows, last year was last year and this year is different. It's not like the Mets won 14 straight division titles and have the right to proclaim themselves the team to beat. It was just one year.
The Hard Statistics
While preparing for my Fantasy drafts this year, I decided to take a look at how the Mets roster compares with the Phillies roster. First a bit about how I prepare. When projecting player statistics, I look at 3 sources; The Sporting News, ESPN and the Roto Wire. I take each of their projections and average them out to determine what is expected of every player in the draft. This gives me stats on the players most likely to be drafted and some that aren't. One caveat here, bench players and the bullpen aren't considered (yes, I know this is an area of concern for both teams, so maybe I'll cover that in a later blog).
Looking at fantasy projections may not be the best statistical research, especially for those hard core statisticians out there, and it doesn't take into effect the schedule, which benefits the Phillies, but it does provide some interesting results none-the-less.
What does seem most important in looking at the stats is determining how many runs will be scored by each team's hitters and how many runs will be given up by each teams pitchers. This should give some sort of indication of won-loss record.
Phillies Hitters (runs scored)
123 Jimmy Rollins
80 Shane Victorino
122 Chase Utley
110 Ryan Howard
81 Pat Burrell
71 Aaron Rowand
58 Wes Helms
60 Rod Barajas
------------------
705 Total
Phillies Pitchers (ERA)
3.99 Brett Myers
4.11 Cole Hamels
4.17 Freddy Garcia
4.43 Jamie Moyer
4.67 Adam Eaton
3.00 Tom Gordon
-------------------
4.19 ERA (Averaged based on Innings Pitched)
Mets Hitters (runs scored)
120 Jose Reyes
120 Carlos Beltran
103 David Wright
86 Carlos Delgado
61 Moises Alou
70 Shawn Green
57 Jose Valentin
70 Paul Lo Duca
--------------------
687 Total
Mets Pitchers (ERA)
3.92 Tom Glavine
4.39 Orlando Hernandez
4.35 John Maine
4.46 Mike Pelfrey*
3.83 Pedro Martinez*
5.70 Oliver Perez*
2.06 Billy Wagner
---------------------
4.22 ERA (Averaged based on Innings Pitched)
Note: It's not known when (or if) Pedro will pitch or who he will replace in the rotation, so Martinez, Perez and Pelfry were weighted with the same number of innings pitched between them (which is pretty much how the statistical sources had it as well).
The Final Analysis
As this study shows, the Phillies are again projected to lead the Mets in Runs scored 705 to 687 (starters only), but this year they are also projected to give up fewer runs per game 4.19 vs. 4.22.
Another interesting stat that comes out of this is the number of innings pitched by starters, where Phillies starters are projected to eat up 970 innings this season, the Mets starters are only projected to throw 895 innings. More thoughts on the effect that will have on the bullpens later.
For now Phillies fans can relish in the thought that Rollins is correct when he says they are the team to beat. Of course, that's why they play the games.
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