Buyers or Sellers

The Phillies limped past the half-way point of the season with a 41-40 record through 81 games, and the annual ritual in baseball is quickly approaching. That's right, it's now just 26 days until the trade deadline and teams will be deciding if they are buyers or sellers over the next couple of weeks.

So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.

First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.

Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.

Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.

No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.

What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.

Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.

Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.

The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."

Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.