The Phillies have finally found a starter to add to the rotation, trading Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer to Oakland for starter Joe Blanton. The good news is the Phillies didn't give up much. Cardenas is a second baseman who is clearly blocked by Chase Utley for quite some time. Lefty pitcher Outman had been converted to a reliever in the minors as potential insurance for the big club. Apparently he hasn't done well enough to make the big league roster, or rather the relief staff has done so well to date, he really hasn't been needed.
The bad news, contrary to popular belief, Blanton hasn't been all that great a starter with a career ERA of 4.25 / BAA .273 and for the Fantasy Baseball crowd, a 1.33 WHIP. None of those stats are very exciting, but he is an innings eater and should take some pressure off of the bullpen which is likely to be important down the stretch. Blanton is also under team control through 2010, so he should be with the team for awhile.
This brings up the next logical question. With Brett Myers apparently returning in a week, who is out of the rotation? Probably Adam Eaton, unless there is another deal in the works to move Myers. Personally, I would rather have Myers given his track record than Eaton. My guess, Eaton moves to the bullpen, the Phillies try to move him to anyone who has a bit of interest and may end up dropping him altogether and eating his salary for the rest of '08 and all of '09.
17 July 2008
01 July 2008
"Ace" sent to the Minors
In somewhat of a surprise move, the Phillies have optioned Brett Myers to triple-A to work out his mechanical issues. For the team "Ace", this is another odd turn in his past 2 years of going from opening day starter to closer to opening day starter to triple A starter. Hopefully the minor league assignments gets him straightened out and ready for the second half, the Phillies sure could use him with his Ace game.
The next question is who gets his next 3 or so starts in the rotation. Pat Gillick says this will be decided in the next 24-48 hours. Does this mean that a trade is in the works, perhaps the return of Randy Wolf? Could be, or it could just mean that they really haven't decided who to bring up from the minors yet. Kris Benson has been working back into shape, but doesn't sound ready to go yet, so it could be a youngster such as Carlos Carrasco. It would be interesting to see this guy's stuff at the major league level, so barring a trade, I vote for Carrasco. Maybe this can be the start of "Carrasco's Corral" in the outfield stands.
The next question is who gets his next 3 or so starts in the rotation. Pat Gillick says this will be decided in the next 24-48 hours. Does this mean that a trade is in the works, perhaps the return of Randy Wolf? Could be, or it could just mean that they really haven't decided who to bring up from the minors yet. Kris Benson has been working back into shape, but doesn't sound ready to go yet, so it could be a youngster such as Carlos Carrasco. It would be interesting to see this guy's stuff at the major league level, so barring a trade, I vote for Carrasco. Maybe this can be the start of "Carrasco's Corral" in the outfield stands.
28 June 2008
Get the 4-11 on the Phillies
The Phillies have been fond of starting out the season 4-11 as they have done in each of the past two years. This year, the team got off to a solid start, hit their usual hot streak in May and took over the division. That was the good news.
The past couple of weeks however have been the bad news, with the team going 4-11 in their last 15 games. Is there something to the 4-11 record? Maybe it's a sign that they should dial 4-11 to find out what the problem is.
While the team has certainly hit a lull in the hitting department (we're all looking at you Howard -- Mr. 10 Million Dollar Man), one of the big concerns is the starting pitching. With Brett Myers' melt down last night against the Rangers, the team is left scratching their head with what to do with the starting staff. It's no secret that the Phillies are actively searching for a top-line starter to go with Hamels, and the following names are widely speculated to be on the market.
CC Sabathia
Erik Bedard
Rich Harden
It's pretty clear that any of those guys would greatly improve the staff. My favorite is Rich Harden since he should cost less due to his injury history and is a clear ace whenever he takes the mound. Bedard may be dealing with an injury and Sabathia will probably cost more in talent than what the Phillies have to offer, or would be willing to part with.
Of course, the next question is who would loose their spot in the rotation. After Hamels, here's the baseball analytics on the other 4 starters:
2-6 Record, 4.86 ERA, 49K
7-3 Record, 4.59 ERA, 39K
7-5 Record, 4.09 ERA, 59K
3-9 Record, 5.84 ERA, 88K
If you were going strictly by the numbers that wouldn't be good news for Brett Myers.
The lines above belong to:
Adam Eaton
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Brett Myers
Can the Phillies really afford to jettison their opening day starter and "ace"? That probably isn't the wisest move given his history of success. Jamie Moyer has been pitching too well to be out of the rotation, Kendrick has the best record and Eaton has too high a salary to stick into the bullpen. Not to mention that the bullpen doesn't need another right hander anyway. So who would go? Probably Kendrick since he still has minor league options, though Eaton should really be the odd man out.
One thing is for certain, it's not clear who would loose their spot in the rotation IF the Phillies were to pull off a move, but it sure would be a nice thought to have a rotation anchored by Hamels and Harden (or Sabathia or Bedard) with a straightened out Myers as the number 3.
The past couple of weeks however have been the bad news, with the team going 4-11 in their last 15 games. Is there something to the 4-11 record? Maybe it's a sign that they should dial 4-11 to find out what the problem is.
While the team has certainly hit a lull in the hitting department (we're all looking at you Howard -- Mr. 10 Million Dollar Man), one of the big concerns is the starting pitching. With Brett Myers' melt down last night against the Rangers, the team is left scratching their head with what to do with the starting staff. It's no secret that the Phillies are actively searching for a top-line starter to go with Hamels, and the following names are widely speculated to be on the market.
CC Sabathia
Erik Bedard
Rich Harden
It's pretty clear that any of those guys would greatly improve the staff. My favorite is Rich Harden since he should cost less due to his injury history and is a clear ace whenever he takes the mound. Bedard may be dealing with an injury and Sabathia will probably cost more in talent than what the Phillies have to offer, or would be willing to part with.
Of course, the next question is who would loose their spot in the rotation. After Hamels, here's the baseball analytics on the other 4 starters:
2-6 Record, 4.86 ERA, 49K
7-3 Record, 4.59 ERA, 39K
7-5 Record, 4.09 ERA, 59K
3-9 Record, 5.84 ERA, 88K
If you were going strictly by the numbers that wouldn't be good news for Brett Myers.
The lines above belong to:
Adam Eaton
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Brett Myers
Can the Phillies really afford to jettison their opening day starter and "ace"? That probably isn't the wisest move given his history of success. Jamie Moyer has been pitching too well to be out of the rotation, Kendrick has the best record and Eaton has too high a salary to stick into the bullpen. Not to mention that the bullpen doesn't need another right hander anyway. So who would go? Probably Kendrick since he still has minor league options, though Eaton should really be the odd man out.
One thing is for certain, it's not clear who would loose their spot in the rotation IF the Phillies were to pull off a move, but it sure would be a nice thought to have a rotation anchored by Hamels and Harden (or Sabathia or Bedard) with a straightened out Myers as the number 3.
11 April 2008
Phillies sign Steve Kline
Looks like the Phillies finally decided to bite on released lefty Steve Kline, signing him to a minor league contract. Kline had a pretty rough year with the Giants in 2007 posting a 4.70 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with a .301 BAA. However, he is "only" 35 so he could still have some gas left in the tank. He does appear to be in decline since 2004, posting the following:
STL 2004 / 1.79ERA / 1.05WHIP / .209BAA
BAL 2005 / 4.28ERA / 1.46WHIP / .257BAA
SFG 2006 / 3.66ERA / 1.53WHIP / .275BAA
SFG 2007 / 4.70ERA / 1.65WHIP / .301BAA
It doesn't help that he went to a pitchers ballpark in 2006-2007 either. However, if he can pitch like his 2006 season, which is close to his career average, he will be a very serviceable reliever. If he pitches like he did in 2004, the Phillies will have one of the best bullpens in the game. Imagine that.
STL 2004 / 1.79ERA / 1.05WHIP / .209BAA
BAL 2005 / 4.28ERA / 1.46WHIP / .257BAA
SFG 2006 / 3.66ERA / 1.53WHIP / .275BAA
SFG 2007 / 4.70ERA / 1.65WHIP / .301BAA
It doesn't help that he went to a pitchers ballpark in 2006-2007 either. However, if he can pitch like his 2006 season, which is close to his career average, he will be a very serviceable reliever. If he pitches like he did in 2004, the Phillies will have one of the best bullpens in the game. Imagine that.
01 April 2008
Seanez Signs
After a forgettable start to the 2008 season, the Phillies have signed veteran relief pitcher Rudy Seanez to the staff. The Dodgers cut Seanez at the end of Spring Training and the word was that he was ready to retire.
The 39 year old righty has had a pretty solid career, posting a 4.15 ERA and 544 Ks in just 522 2/3 innings. Last year, Rudy posted a solid 3.78 ERA with nearly a K per inning, so he may have some gas left in the tank, and the Phillies can use all the help they can get out of the bullpen.
Bottom line, this is a solid and necessary signing, and it's a low-risk / medium-reward sort of deal. If it works out, the Phillies get a workhorse who can chew up the middle innings. If things don't work out, Seanez can retire and the Phillies likely won't have any future money committed (financial details haven't been release yet).
The word is that the Phillies are still looking for a left-handed option out of the bullpen. Curious that they weren't in on Aaron Fultz who was released by the Indians and signed by the Tigers last week, he seems to be on a good year/bad year/good year/bad year kick and this is his good year. Steve Kline was released by the Giants and is available, another guy who has had a solid career and may have some gas left in the tank.
The 39 year old righty has had a pretty solid career, posting a 4.15 ERA and 544 Ks in just 522 2/3 innings. Last year, Rudy posted a solid 3.78 ERA with nearly a K per inning, so he may have some gas left in the tank, and the Phillies can use all the help they can get out of the bullpen.
Bottom line, this is a solid and necessary signing, and it's a low-risk / medium-reward sort of deal. If it works out, the Phillies get a workhorse who can chew up the middle innings. If things don't work out, Seanez can retire and the Phillies likely won't have any future money committed (financial details haven't been release yet).
The word is that the Phillies are still looking for a left-handed option out of the bullpen. Curious that they weren't in on Aaron Fultz who was released by the Indians and signed by the Tigers last week, he seems to be on a good year/bad year/good year/bad year kick and this is his good year. Steve Kline was released by the Giants and is available, another guy who has had a solid career and may have some gas left in the tank.
13 February 2008
Phils Add Ben-surance
The Phillies completed a deal to add Kris Benson to the team just in time for pitchers and catchers to report to the Carpenter Complex.
Benson represents a nice low risk, high reward option for the Phillies and will provide real competition for the 5th spot in the rotation (whether that be Eaton or Kendrick). Benson had shoulder surgery 10 1/2 months ago, so he should be ready to go sometime between the start of the season and June 1. In either case, there's a good chance that he will need to regain his form in the minors before pitching at Citizen's Bank, so the competition for the 5th spot in the rotation could last into the start of the season.
For the Phillies, it's a win-win situation, if Kendrick builds on last years success and Eaton returns to form, then the rotation is set and Benson can work his way back starting in the minors and take the inevitable step to the majors when the first injury hits (anyone want to lay odds on who will be the first starter to hit the DL?) Now, if Kendrick or Eaton falter in Spring training then Benson could be ready to contribute right away.
The history of shoulder surgery recoveries shows a trend where a pitcher comes back with middling success right away, then regains their old form after 2-3 months of regular duty. This could net out to the Benson of old by the second half of the season, and the Phillies always seem to need reliable arms the second half.
Over his career, Benson has had pretty consistent stats. His career numbers are:
4.34 ERA
1.38 WHIP
.267 BAA
About what was expected out of Adam Eaton when he signed.
Benson represents a nice low risk, high reward option for the Phillies and will provide real competition for the 5th spot in the rotation (whether that be Eaton or Kendrick). Benson had shoulder surgery 10 1/2 months ago, so he should be ready to go sometime between the start of the season and June 1. In either case, there's a good chance that he will need to regain his form in the minors before pitching at Citizen's Bank, so the competition for the 5th spot in the rotation could last into the start of the season.
For the Phillies, it's a win-win situation, if Kendrick builds on last years success and Eaton returns to form, then the rotation is set and Benson can work his way back starting in the minors and take the inevitable step to the majors when the first injury hits (anyone want to lay odds on who will be the first starter to hit the DL?) Now, if Kendrick or Eaton falter in Spring training then Benson could be ready to contribute right away.
The history of shoulder surgery recoveries shows a trend where a pitcher comes back with middling success right away, then regains their old form after 2-3 months of regular duty. This could net out to the Benson of old by the second half of the season, and the Phillies always seem to need reliable arms the second half.
Over his career, Benson has had pretty consistent stats. His career numbers are:
4.34 ERA
1.38 WHIP
.267 BAA
About what was expected out of Adam Eaton when he signed.
28 January 2008
Feliz a Philly
According to Jason Stark, the Phillies have signed Pedro Feliz to a 2 year deal. This solves the third base issue that the Phillies have been dealing with.
While most baseball fans outside of the bay area have probably not heard of Pedro Feliz, the fantasy world has been aware of him as an intriguing option at SS in the past. He has been somewhat of an anomaly for fantasy teams offering teasing production but a low batting average, making him a position only play.
Over Feliz's 7 year career with the Giants, he has shown amazing consistency for a guy that has been switched from position to position.
2004 - 22HR / 84RBI / .276BA
2005 - 20HR / 81RBI / .250BA
2006 - 22HR / 98RBI / .244BA
2007 - 20HR / 72RBI / .253BA
Given the fact that he has played in a pitcher friendly ballpark and in a lineup that rarely had an offensive threat other than Barry Bonds, it seems reasonable to project a 22HR / 85RBI / .250BA with the Phillies. This gives the Phillies a league average third baseman, which is really all the team needs to add to their already high-octane offense. Really since Rolen left, the Phillies have had a void at third, the best year turned in by David Bell in 2004 with an 18HR / 77RBI / .291BA line. Putting up 22HR / 85RBI numbers looks even better for a guy that will probably be batting 7th in the order.
As for defense, in the 615 games Feliz has played at the position, he has put up a .961 Fielding Percentage with a .822 Zone Rating. Last year's .852 Zone Rating was the best in the National League as was his Fielding Percentage of .973, ahead of both Aramis Ramirez (.972) and Chipper Jones (.971). This is a great sign for a pitching staff that can use a little extra help getting outs.
Bottom line, Feliz is a great defender and solid bat at the bottom of the order, just what the doctor ordered.
The next question is what happens to Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs? The Marlins expressed interest in Helms awhile back, and the Phillies will probably let him go for very little, cash if they can get it. Dobbs looks like a solid bench option and backup at 3rd and in the outfield, probably the best role for him as far as the team is concerned.
While most baseball fans outside of the bay area have probably not heard of Pedro Feliz, the fantasy world has been aware of him as an intriguing option at SS in the past. He has been somewhat of an anomaly for fantasy teams offering teasing production but a low batting average, making him a position only play.
Over Feliz's 7 year career with the Giants, he has shown amazing consistency for a guy that has been switched from position to position.
2004 - 22HR / 84RBI / .276BA
2005 - 20HR / 81RBI / .250BA
2006 - 22HR / 98RBI / .244BA
2007 - 20HR / 72RBI / .253BA
Given the fact that he has played in a pitcher friendly ballpark and in a lineup that rarely had an offensive threat other than Barry Bonds, it seems reasonable to project a 22HR / 85RBI / .250BA with the Phillies. This gives the Phillies a league average third baseman, which is really all the team needs to add to their already high-octane offense. Really since Rolen left, the Phillies have had a void at third, the best year turned in by David Bell in 2004 with an 18HR / 77RBI / .291BA line. Putting up 22HR / 85RBI numbers looks even better for a guy that will probably be batting 7th in the order.
As for defense, in the 615 games Feliz has played at the position, he has put up a .961 Fielding Percentage with a .822 Zone Rating. Last year's .852 Zone Rating was the best in the National League as was his Fielding Percentage of .973, ahead of both Aramis Ramirez (.972) and Chipper Jones (.971). This is a great sign for a pitching staff that can use a little extra help getting outs.
Bottom line, Feliz is a great defender and solid bat at the bottom of the order, just what the doctor ordered.
The next question is what happens to Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs? The Marlins expressed interest in Helms awhile back, and the Phillies will probably let him go for very little, cash if they can get it. Dobbs looks like a solid bench option and backup at 3rd and in the outfield, probably the best role for him as far as the team is concerned.
17 January 2008
The Phillies have a Darn Good Bullpen
The Phillies came to terms with Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson today avoiding arbitration hearings with the pair of right-handers. That got me thinking about the Phillies bullpen, and you know what? They look pretty darned good on paper. When did this happen? Especially after last year's abomination in the first half.
It started with the trade for Lidge and then re-signing Romero and then bringing in Chad Durbin. Aside from the Lidge deal (who is replacing Myers in the 'pen) it didn't seem like much was done. Let's run down the pen and see where the Phillies stand.
Closer - Brad Lidge
The guy has gotten a bad rap since serving up the Pujols game winner a couple years ago, and fantasy baseball players really noticed the problems with Lidge moving in-out-back in-then out again-then into the closers role for Houston since that blast. That hurt fantasy owners in 2006 and I should know I was one of his owners drafting a closer way to high (never draft a closer in the early rounds, but that's another topic). Still with the rough 2006, Lidge compiled 104 Ks, one of the few relievers in the game to accomplish that. Last year, where Lidge "struggled" he still posted a 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .220 BAA, all very close to his career averages.
Setup Man - Tom Gordon
Yes he struggled last year opening the season, but he was clearly pitching injured and tried to pitch through it, which never seems to work. You can almost pick out the pitchers these days throwing through injuries. They are usually way off their career numbers. Gordon was quite good down the stretch last year after his injury problems were behind him, so it's reasonable to assume he will pitch more like the 2006 and second half of 2007 models than the first half of 2007 model.
7th Inning Guy - Ryan Madson
Madson was kind of forgotten about last year, but posted a very strong season before going down with an injury, posting a 3.05 ERA. Seeing that Madson had signed reminded me how important he was to the Phillies bullpen the past few years, so I looked up his numbers and if you look at his career stats out of the pen (forget about those starts in 2006), you find a 3.48 ERA, which is fabulous for a 7th inning guy who has mostly been forgotten about. Assuming he stays healthy, Madson will be a key to the success of the bullpen.
Lefty Specialist - JC Romero
I still can't believe the Red Sox cast this guy off. Don't you think they wished they had stuck with Romero and ignored Eric Gagne? There's no doubt who was better the second half of last year. Romero has definitely had a checkered career with amazing years like 2002's 1.89 ERA surrounded by 6.23 (2001) and 5.00 (2003). It's unlikely he will duplicate his 2007 success with the Phillies, but if he is limited to left-handed situations, he should be very good. Career line vs. lefties 1.26 WHIP, .226 BAA. Career line vs. righties 1.65 WHIP, .271 BAA.
Swingman - Chad Durbin
We talked about Durbin in a past post, not the most exciting guy, but he is really being called upon to be the long man out of the pen and for the occasional spot start. If he performs like last year, he will get more exposure, but if not, he will chew up some innings where the Phillies are either way ahead or way behind. Good for saving the quality arms some mileage.
2008 Projections
Lidge - 3.30 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .215 BAA / 100 K / 35 SV
Gordon - 3.40 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .235 BAA / 65 K
Romero - 3.50 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .230 BAA / 55 K
Madson - 3.20 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .235 BAA / 70 K
Amazingly similar stats across the board, it would be interesting to see 4 pitches that close to each other in stats, essentially that would mean it didn't matter who was on the mound, you could expect the same result.
Now if the Phillies can just take a chance on a guy like Akinori Otsuka. Yes an injury risk, but why not take the shot with an incentive laden contract. If it works out, the Phillies could actually have one of the better relief staffs around. Who would have thought that last year.
One last thought, Octavio Dotel is still available and the Phillies appear to have cash available, when he doesn't close he is one of the best relievers in the game, as a closer he is league average. He would cost closer money $5-6M and may demand a closer role, but maybe he is interested in winning too, just a though.
It started with the trade for Lidge and then re-signing Romero and then bringing in Chad Durbin. Aside from the Lidge deal (who is replacing Myers in the 'pen) it didn't seem like much was done. Let's run down the pen and see where the Phillies stand.
Closer - Brad Lidge
The guy has gotten a bad rap since serving up the Pujols game winner a couple years ago, and fantasy baseball players really noticed the problems with Lidge moving in-out-back in-then out again-then into the closers role for Houston since that blast. That hurt fantasy owners in 2006 and I should know I was one of his owners drafting a closer way to high (never draft a closer in the early rounds, but that's another topic). Still with the rough 2006, Lidge compiled 104 Ks, one of the few relievers in the game to accomplish that. Last year, where Lidge "struggled" he still posted a 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .220 BAA, all very close to his career averages.
Setup Man - Tom Gordon
Yes he struggled last year opening the season, but he was clearly pitching injured and tried to pitch through it, which never seems to work. You can almost pick out the pitchers these days throwing through injuries. They are usually way off their career numbers. Gordon was quite good down the stretch last year after his injury problems were behind him, so it's reasonable to assume he will pitch more like the 2006 and second half of 2007 models than the first half of 2007 model.
7th Inning Guy - Ryan Madson
Madson was kind of forgotten about last year, but posted a very strong season before going down with an injury, posting a 3.05 ERA. Seeing that Madson had signed reminded me how important he was to the Phillies bullpen the past few years, so I looked up his numbers and if you look at his career stats out of the pen (forget about those starts in 2006), you find a 3.48 ERA, which is fabulous for a 7th inning guy who has mostly been forgotten about. Assuming he stays healthy, Madson will be a key to the success of the bullpen.
Lefty Specialist - JC Romero
I still can't believe the Red Sox cast this guy off. Don't you think they wished they had stuck with Romero and ignored Eric Gagne? There's no doubt who was better the second half of last year. Romero has definitely had a checkered career with amazing years like 2002's 1.89 ERA surrounded by 6.23 (2001) and 5.00 (2003). It's unlikely he will duplicate his 2007 success with the Phillies, but if he is limited to left-handed situations, he should be very good. Career line vs. lefties 1.26 WHIP, .226 BAA. Career line vs. righties 1.65 WHIP, .271 BAA.
Swingman - Chad Durbin
We talked about Durbin in a past post, not the most exciting guy, but he is really being called upon to be the long man out of the pen and for the occasional spot start. If he performs like last year, he will get more exposure, but if not, he will chew up some innings where the Phillies are either way ahead or way behind. Good for saving the quality arms some mileage.
2008 Projections
Lidge - 3.30 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .215 BAA / 100 K / 35 SV
Gordon - 3.40 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .235 BAA / 65 K
Romero - 3.50 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .230 BAA / 55 K
Madson - 3.20 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .235 BAA / 70 K
Amazingly similar stats across the board, it would be interesting to see 4 pitches that close to each other in stats, essentially that would mean it didn't matter who was on the mound, you could expect the same result.
Now if the Phillies can just take a chance on a guy like Akinori Otsuka. Yes an injury risk, but why not take the shot with an incentive laden contract. If it works out, the Phillies could actually have one of the better relief staffs around. Who would have thought that last year.
One last thought, Octavio Dotel is still available and the Phillies appear to have cash available, when he doesn't close he is one of the best relievers in the game, as a closer he is league average. He would cost closer money $5-6M and may demand a closer role, but maybe he is interested in winning too, just a though.
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