One is a powerful number. Sunday the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals by one in the bottom of the 12th inning to move one game closer to the division lead. Atlanta also lost, moving the Phillies one game closer to the wild card position. This game also marked the 4th game in a row that was decided by one run. The Phillies have won 2 and lost 2 of those contests.
What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.
The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.
While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.
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