We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
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