While watching the Diamondbacks and Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, I was very disturbed with Charlie Manuels choice to use Rheal Cormier.
With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.
Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.
Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.
In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:
Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353
Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."
Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.
The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.
Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.
With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.
Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.
28 August 2005
22 August 2005
On a Roll, Let's Keep it Going
The September pennant stretch is quickly approaching, and the Phillies have put themselves into the thick of contention. With just 37 games remaining, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in the Wild Card lead and only 3 1/2 games behind the Braves for the N.L. East Division Title.
Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.
After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.
Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.
Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.
Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.
Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.
After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.
Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.
Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.
Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.
11 August 2005
Thome is Done. Does Anyone Care?
Don't take that title the wrong way. Jim Thome has certainly been a dominant force in the middle of the Phillies lineup the past couple of years, averaging 45HR, 118BI, and his production will certainly be missed. The guy is also a favorite among teammates and fans alike, so you can't help but feel bad for Big Jim, knowing that he wants to play and produce as much as anyone else wants him too. But, the Phillies now have to move on knowing that Thome is 99% likely to have season ending surgery. We all wish him the best and hope for a speedy recovery.
Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.
Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA
Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.
Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.
Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.
While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.
The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.
If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.
Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.
Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA
Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.
Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.
Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.
While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.
The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.
If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.
03 August 2005
Handicapping the Atlanta Braves
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.
This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.
The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.
Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.
The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.
The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.
The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.
The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.
The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.
This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.
The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.
Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.
The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.
The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.
The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.
The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.
The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?
02 August 2005
Handicapping the Washington Nationals
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
01 August 2005
Handicapping the New York Mets
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.
At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.
Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.
Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.
Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead
David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.
The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.
The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.
At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.
Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.
Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.
Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead
David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.
The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.
The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.
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