We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.
As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.
Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.
The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.
The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.
The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.
The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.
29 July 2005
28 July 2005
Handicapping the Chicago Cubs
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
27 July 2005
Handicapping the Milwaukee Brewers
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.
Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July
And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague
And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games
All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.
Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.
The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.
The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.
One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.
So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.
The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?
The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.
Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July
And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague
And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games
All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.
Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.
The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.
The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.
One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.
So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.
The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?
The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.
26 July 2005
Handicapping the Arizona Diamondbacks
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.
Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).
The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.
The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.
The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".
The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.
Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).
The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.
The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.
The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".
The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.
25 July 2005
Handicapping the Pennant Race
With 99 games in the books and the Phillies 5 games over .500, and 3 games out in the N.L. East, the team is solidly in the playoff race. With 2 playoff spots available -- the division title and the wildcard -- let's take a look at the competition.
Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.
The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.
Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.
The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.
Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.
Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.
The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.
The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.
The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.
Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.
The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.
Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.
The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.
Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.
Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.
The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.
The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.
The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.
22 July 2005
Worrell Set Free
Tim Worell was traded to the Diamonbacks today for Matt Kata. This appears to be a matter of setting Worrell free from Philadelphia. According to Ed Wade, "He expressed an interest in pitching closer to home and we tried to see if there was a deal out there that could accommodate both him and the club." Looks like the former was satisfied, though it's not apparent how this accommodates the club. The Phillies are paying the rest of Worrell's salary and receive Matt Kata, an infield spare part that doesn't figure into the plans either this year or in the future, with the Phillies infield and bench pretty much set. Unless Kata is part of a another trade package, this seems to be a case of setting Worrell free.
This is an unfortunate turn of events, as Worrell was pitching fairly well since his return. 5 2/3 innings pitched allowing 2 earned runs, now Worrell has an outside shot at closing for the Diamondbacks. Phillies fans were surely envisioning him returning to form and becoming an important part of the bullpen in a playoff race.
Does this signal the start of selling season for the Phillies? Let's hope not as the team is only 5 games out of the division and the wildcard race. Next up we will preview the wildcard contenders to see how the Phillies stack up.
This is an unfortunate turn of events, as Worrell was pitching fairly well since his return. 5 2/3 innings pitched allowing 2 earned runs, now Worrell has an outside shot at closing for the Diamondbacks. Phillies fans were surely envisioning him returning to form and becoming an important part of the bullpen in a playoff race.
Does this signal the start of selling season for the Phillies? Let's hope not as the team is only 5 games out of the division and the wildcard race. Next up we will preview the wildcard contenders to see how the Phillies stack up.
17 July 2005
Streaking Again
The Phillies have just finished off the Florida Marlins to take 3 out of 4 games from the fish. This marks their second straight series win after taking 2 out of 3 from the Washington Nationals or 5-2 the last 2 series. This after a going 7-15 since June 14.
The Phillies are a streaky team.
For better, or worse, this is how the team is constructed. With the pleathora of home runs that the Bank allows, the Phillies tend to swing for the fences more than most, resulting in a large number of team strike outs. Add to this a starting staff that can be great at times, but mediocre at others...mix in a lack of patience at the plate from Rollins, and you have a formula for a streaky team. Luckily it has been reported that Rollins is becoming more patient on mlb.com. We shall see, as he goes, generally so does the Phillies offensive attack.
Is a prolonged winning streak on the horizon?
Probably, the triple-A Dodgers are coming to town and look like easy pickings. After that it's San Diego at home and Houston on the road. The Phillies have eaten up the NL West (7-2), and the Astros have lost their last 3, so some the Phillies should win their share. After that the Phillies play a 4 game set against the also triple-A Rockies. It would be surprising if the Phillies don't end up at least 7-5 after this stretch, making an overall 17-7 streak possible. Couple this with the 7-15 streak from June 14 - July 7 and the team would be a combined 24-22 and 5 games over .500. Still not a wonderful record overall, but good enough to maintain a solid spot in the wildcard race as well as the division.
Random Thoughts
The Phillies are in second place in the wildcard race, 4 games behind the Braves, quite amazing when you think about how bad they played the month prior to the All-Star break...Are the Braves really going to win the division again? It certainly is set in their favor with Chipper, Hampton and Hudson all back to active duty. Maybe Smoltz and Andrew Jones need to go down for the NL East to hold down the Braves...If the Braves win the division, can the Nationals take the wildcard? Less likely, this team has been way too lucky, see the previous posts, more than likely the Nationals end up in 4th place by the end of the season...Ryan Howard is looking impressive filling in for Thome, hitting 3 homers and knocking in 11 since Jim went down. With the way Tome had been hitting, maybe he should take the time to make sure he is fully healthy before coming back. Howard can hold the fort until then...Speaking of Howard, he is doing a great job of raising his trade value, which could be important for the Phillies landing a top line starter. However, why not keep Howard on the bench, spelling Thome when needed, to provide that all important bench power? That would require a solution for the 5th starter...Rumor has it that Cole Hamels is lighting up the minors and could be on the fast track to the big club, maybe even this year. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to bring him up and see what he can do. And, why not bring up Gavin Floyd again to see if he can get back the magic?...Kudos to Vincente Padilla for answering the call. Apparently he was 1 start away from loosing his spot in the rotation prior to the All-Star Break. Since then, 2-0 with 13 scoreless innings pitched. Hopefully he has figured things out, the club really needs him...Kudos also go to Milt Thompson for teaching Jimmy Rollins the afor mentioned patience at the plate. A .545 on-base percentage and 4 walks this past week is a good start.
The Phillies are a streaky team.
For better, or worse, this is how the team is constructed. With the pleathora of home runs that the Bank allows, the Phillies tend to swing for the fences more than most, resulting in a large number of team strike outs. Add to this a starting staff that can be great at times, but mediocre at others...mix in a lack of patience at the plate from Rollins, and you have a formula for a streaky team. Luckily it has been reported that Rollins is becoming more patient on mlb.com. We shall see, as he goes, generally so does the Phillies offensive attack.
Is a prolonged winning streak on the horizon?
Probably, the triple-A Dodgers are coming to town and look like easy pickings. After that it's San Diego at home and Houston on the road. The Phillies have eaten up the NL West (7-2), and the Astros have lost their last 3, so some the Phillies should win their share. After that the Phillies play a 4 game set against the also triple-A Rockies. It would be surprising if the Phillies don't end up at least 7-5 after this stretch, making an overall 17-7 streak possible. Couple this with the 7-15 streak from June 14 - July 7 and the team would be a combined 24-22 and 5 games over .500. Still not a wonderful record overall, but good enough to maintain a solid spot in the wildcard race as well as the division.
Random Thoughts
The Phillies are in second place in the wildcard race, 4 games behind the Braves, quite amazing when you think about how bad they played the month prior to the All-Star break...Are the Braves really going to win the division again? It certainly is set in their favor with Chipper, Hampton and Hudson all back to active duty. Maybe Smoltz and Andrew Jones need to go down for the NL East to hold down the Braves...If the Braves win the division, can the Nationals take the wildcard? Less likely, this team has been way too lucky, see the previous posts, more than likely the Nationals end up in 4th place by the end of the season...Ryan Howard is looking impressive filling in for Thome, hitting 3 homers and knocking in 11 since Jim went down. With the way Tome had been hitting, maybe he should take the time to make sure he is fully healthy before coming back. Howard can hold the fort until then...Speaking of Howard, he is doing a great job of raising his trade value, which could be important for the Phillies landing a top line starter. However, why not keep Howard on the bench, spelling Thome when needed, to provide that all important bench power? That would require a solution for the 5th starter...Rumor has it that Cole Hamels is lighting up the minors and could be on the fast track to the big club, maybe even this year. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to bring him up and see what he can do. And, why not bring up Gavin Floyd again to see if he can get back the magic?...Kudos to Vincente Padilla for answering the call. Apparently he was 1 start away from loosing his spot in the rotation prior to the All-Star Break. Since then, 2-0 with 13 scoreless innings pitched. Hopefully he has figured things out, the club really needs him...Kudos also go to Milt Thompson for teaching Jimmy Rollins the afor mentioned patience at the plate. A .545 on-base percentage and 4 walks this past week is a good start.
10 July 2005
The Power of One
One is a powerful number. Sunday the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals by one in the bottom of the 12th inning to move one game closer to the division lead. Atlanta also lost, moving the Phillies one game closer to the wild card position. This game also marked the 4th game in a row that was decided by one run. The Phillies have won 2 and lost 2 of those contests.
What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.
The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.
While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.
What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.
The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.
While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.
05 July 2005
Buyers or Sellers
The Phillies limped past the half-way point of the season with a 41-40 record through 81 games, and the annual ritual in baseball is quickly approaching. That's right, it's now just 26 days until the trade deadline and teams will be deciding if they are buyers or sellers over the next couple of weeks.
So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.
First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.
Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.
Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.
No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.
What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.
Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.
Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.
The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."
Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.
So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.
First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.
Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.
Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.
No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.
What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.
Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.
Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.
The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."
Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.
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