It has been tough to write about the Phillies this month, with the heart-wrenching losses they have endured against key foes in the Wild Card race. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Phillies were in control of their destiny..."All we have to do is win games" was the battle cry, and heading into key games against all Wild Card contending teams, hopes were running high.
The first series against the Mets started out dubious, with a 4-6 loss, the Phillies 3rd in a row, and things were looking like they might fall apart. But, the team pulled through to win the series, and started off with a win against the Nationals. Now, things were looking good, fans were wondering how many games up on the Astros we could be if the team were to win the series against the Nationals and take the series against the Astros. 2, maybe 3 or possibly a 4 game lead was likely. And, what about the division leading Braves, there was a real possibility of getting with in a couple of games of Atlanta.
Then, the worst-case scenario happened, the Phillies drop 5 in a row, including a 3 game sweep by the Astros.
Deja-vu all over again?
It certainly was beginning to feel like last year when the Phillies were starting to make a charge in the division and had just come off of a sweep (the Met's if I recall) and headed in to play a floundering Astros team. The Phillies were promptly swept, then went out and sweep a 4 game series against the Rockies, when they faced off against the Astros again. Of course, the Phillies were swept a second time and never really recovered to challenge for the division or the Wild Card again. Last year, the damage was done by Carlos Beltran. He actually damaged more than the Phillies last year in his heroic charge to within a game of the World Series. This year, the Astros are doing the damage with their starting pitching, and good pitching always seems to shut down the Phillies. In two years, the Phillies are 0-12 against the Astros, and at key points in the year, hopefully they will be on the early part of the Phillies schedule next year.
The Pesky Fish
Coming into the Malins series, the Phillies were facing a desparate situation and had to win the series, and really needed to sweep the fish to stay in the race. Goal accomplished in the 12-5 drubbing of the first game, and things were really looking up last night with Brett Meyers on the hill and the Phillies leading the game late, when another one of those heart-wrenching losses occured. "Not again" you were saying, "it couldn't possibly be another one-run loss." Yep, that's what happened, the Phillies 4th one-run loss in the past 8 games.
Coming into the final game of the series, the Phillies were in a must-win situation. Lose this game and the team falls 3 games behind the fish and further behind the Astros. Luckily, the bats came alive and the game turned into an 11-1 laugher. With the Astros dropping their game to the Breweres, the Phillies have managed to keep within 1 1/2 games of the Wild Card leading Astros. Winning 2 was great, but the Phillies really should have swept, especially when none of the Marlin's starters in the series made it past the 3rd inning.
Looking Ahead
The next week of games is crucial to deciding the Phillies post-season fate. The Braves come to town for 3 games, then the Phillies head out to Florida and Atlanta. First, the good news, the Wild Card race is essentially down to the Astros, Marlins and Phillies. The Astros and Marlins play each other, so one of the teams will take a hit (hopefully thats the Astros if we know what's good for us).
Now the bad news...it looks like Vincente Padilla could be done for the season. Prior to the All-Star break, you might have said "Who cares?". But since the break, Padilla has been on fire and pitching up to his often cited "potential". He is definitely being skipped tomorrow, but hopefully he can pitch his final 3 turns in the rotation. Robinson Tejeda is also hurting, meaning the Phillies will be leaning on Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd to turn in some strong innings. This creates some tough match-ups agains the Braves:
Monday: Brito vs. Hudson
Tuesday: Floyd vs. Thompson
Wednesday: Lidle vs. Ramirez
Hudson is one of the Brave's aces and Floyd has a 20.25 ERA against Atlanta. Yes, the odds are stacked agains the team heare, at least the Phillies won't have to tangle with John Smoltz.
The goal for the next 3 series is to win each of them some-how, some-way. Yes, that's the goal of any series played, but if the Phillies can take 2 out of 3 against the Braves-Marlins-Braves, then their post-season chances will look a lot brighter. Drop three-in-a-row again, and it will be time to start thinking about next season.
The window of opportunity is still open, and if the Phillies can just win, they will be in control of their destiny.
Random Thoughts
Kudos to Jimmy Rollins for putting together a 17 game hitting streak. As everyone knows, as Rollins OBP goes, so does the Phillies offense, and he is capable of maintaining a hot streak through the remainder of the season, which would be good news to the club...Double kudos to Ryan Howard for doing his best Jim Thome impersonation. This kid is looking like the real deal, posting 16HR / 44BI / .286 in 69 games this year. That projects out to 38 HR / 103 BI. If he can learn how to hit lefties, Howard could be a mainstay for a long time. So what should the Phillies do about Thome? That's a topic for another time...As long as we are handing out kudos, let's pass some along to the starting pitching. Lieber has been lights-out lately, Padilla has been great and Meyers has kept up his quality starts, all leading to close games and solid innings pitched, lessening the stress on the bullpen.
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