Handicapping the Arizona Diamondbacks

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.

Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).

The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.

The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.

The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".

The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.