Two weeks ago the Phillies struggled to split 4 games with the Reds at home and were embarking on 12 game road trip against all first place teams. While the season had been a struggle to that point, it seemed very likely that this road trip could be the death blow to the teams playoff chances. However, the Fightin's were able to take 2 of 3 from the Cardinals at home, 2 of 3 from the Orioles in Baltimore and the rebellion had begun as they headed out to face their own "Evil Empire", the Marlins. The first 2 games with the Fish didn't go well at all, and after a disastrous finish to the second game, the team was sitting at 7 games out and staring that death blow right in the face like Darth Vader saying to Luke, "who's your daddy!" But, the Phillies used the force (of their bats) and won the next 3 in a row, taking 2 of 3 from the Braves in the process. As luck would have it, the Braves and Marlins have also been struggling on their own and the Phillies head home only 4.5 games out of first in the National League East.
So as the next chapter to the season begins...Will the fans at Citizens Bank Park be warm in welcoming the Phillies home? Maybe. Will Rollins continue his hot hitting at lead-off? Hopefully. (He's on nearly the same track as last year). Will Thome come up with a monster June and carry the team for awhile? Quite likely. (Last year Thome hit 15 homers in the month of June, in 2003 he hit 9, in 2002 he hit 10. June is by far his best power month over the past 3 years, so look for good things coming soon). Will Worrell be released from his imprisonment by Jaba the Hut? No one knows.
While the past 2 weeks was a critical stretch for this team, the next 4 weeks are crucial to deciding the Phillies ultimate fate this year. In this time span, the Phillies play 18 of their 24 games at home, starting with the very beatable Giants, a strong Diamondbacks team, average Texas and Milwaukee teams, then ending up with the Mets and Red Sox (who seem more beatable lately without Schilling). Of the 6 games they play on the road, they get to face a weak Mariners team and a very weak A's team who can't seem to buy a run these days.
Have the Phillies averted a trip to the dark side? Not completely. Is there cause for hope? This is so, it would seem.
30 May 2005
24 May 2005
A Very Tough Loss
It seems appropriate to start this entry with a quote from Tuesday's loss to the Marlins; "This was our game, and we messed it up," added manager Charlie Manuel, who looked especially frustrated after the loss. "When [Brett] Myers pitches that good, it's tough for us to lose the game. This is very tough."
Yes, that was a tough loss, one that possibly puts the Phillies out of the race, now 7.5 games out of first and facing the first place Marlins again tonight, a desperation must win game. Had they won the game, it would be 5.5 games out and looking at the possiblity of pulling within 4.5 tonight.
So let's examine the situation a little closer. First, the Phils have been on a pretty impressive streak winning 2 of 3 from the Cardinals at home and going on the road to win 2 of 3 from the first place Orioles. Fans may have been starting to believe again and looking forward to this series against the Marlins as a chance for the team to prove themselves and start climbing back in this race. The last thing that could happen at this point is to be swept by the first place Marlins. Anything that happens for a month after that really doesn't matter if you fall to 8.5 games out before Memorial Day.
There are a couple of observations to make. First, the relief staff is horrible, and that's not an opinion, the Phillies now have a 6.35 ERA out of the pen, a major league worst. And that's with Wagner's strong stats (regardless of the home run last night). Imagine if Mesa was still the closer. Ouch.
Second, given this fact, why would Manuel pull Myers after the 7th inning. MLB.com reports that Myers was "gassed" after the 7th, not having watched the game, but looking into the boxscore, how can this be the case. Yes, he had thrown 104 pitches, but after 7 shutout innings only giving up 2 hits, was he really that "gassed." Really, it seems like a pattern that's starting to emerge where Manuel feels like he needs another run or so in the late innings, and to do so he brings in a pinch hitter for the starting pitcher. More than once, this has lead to a bullpen meltdown. It seems elementary that a guy tossing a 2 hit shutout with a 3-0 lead has earned the right to come out in the 8th. Not to advocate having pitchers injur themselves due to high pitch counts (see the Chicago Cubs), but at least let Myers start the inning and see how he does. Who knows, it could have been a 5 pitch 1-2-3 innning.
The core of the issue here however is what Ed Wade is going to do to address the bullpen issues. Adams has thankfully been released or reassigned and Telemaco always seems to provide quality innings over the course of the season, but he is more of a long relief or mop up guy. We probably would have seen an 11th inning if Telemaco had stayed in to face Delgado instead of switching to Fultz. But, what is the deal with Tim Worrell? He takes a leave of absence, and doesn't communicate with anyone, leaving the team in a very tough place. If the fans were the issue, then why not come back for this road trip to straighten things out. If Worrell doesn't intend on coming back, shouldn't he let management know so a trade can be worked out.
Speaking of trades, the Phillies definitely have the bargaining chips to reshape the bullpen (once again). Here are some ideas, in no particular order.
Yes, that was a tough loss, one that possibly puts the Phillies out of the race, now 7.5 games out of first and facing the first place Marlins again tonight, a desperation must win game. Had they won the game, it would be 5.5 games out and looking at the possiblity of pulling within 4.5 tonight.
So let's examine the situation a little closer. First, the Phils have been on a pretty impressive streak winning 2 of 3 from the Cardinals at home and going on the road to win 2 of 3 from the first place Orioles. Fans may have been starting to believe again and looking forward to this series against the Marlins as a chance for the team to prove themselves and start climbing back in this race. The last thing that could happen at this point is to be swept by the first place Marlins. Anything that happens for a month after that really doesn't matter if you fall to 8.5 games out before Memorial Day.
There are a couple of observations to make. First, the relief staff is horrible, and that's not an opinion, the Phillies now have a 6.35 ERA out of the pen, a major league worst. And that's with Wagner's strong stats (regardless of the home run last night). Imagine if Mesa was still the closer. Ouch.
Second, given this fact, why would Manuel pull Myers after the 7th inning. MLB.com reports that Myers was "gassed" after the 7th, not having watched the game, but looking into the boxscore, how can this be the case. Yes, he had thrown 104 pitches, but after 7 shutout innings only giving up 2 hits, was he really that "gassed." Really, it seems like a pattern that's starting to emerge where Manuel feels like he needs another run or so in the late innings, and to do so he brings in a pinch hitter for the starting pitcher. More than once, this has lead to a bullpen meltdown. It seems elementary that a guy tossing a 2 hit shutout with a 3-0 lead has earned the right to come out in the 8th. Not to advocate having pitchers injur themselves due to high pitch counts (see the Chicago Cubs), but at least let Myers start the inning and see how he does. Who knows, it could have been a 5 pitch 1-2-3 innning.
The core of the issue here however is what Ed Wade is going to do to address the bullpen issues. Adams has thankfully been released or reassigned and Telemaco always seems to provide quality innings over the course of the season, but he is more of a long relief or mop up guy. We probably would have seen an 11th inning if Telemaco had stayed in to face Delgado instead of switching to Fultz. But, what is the deal with Tim Worrell? He takes a leave of absence, and doesn't communicate with anyone, leaving the team in a very tough place. If the fans were the issue, then why not come back for this road trip to straighten things out. If Worrell doesn't intend on coming back, shouldn't he let management know so a trade can be worked out.
Speaking of trades, the Phillies definitely have the bargaining chips to reshape the bullpen (once again). Here are some ideas, in no particular order.
- Trade Worrell back to the Giants for Matt Herges or another quality middle inning guy (they need a closer with experience).
- Trade Polanco to the A's for Octavio Dotel (one of the best setup men ever and a reunion with Wagner)
- Trade Howard to the Orioles for Jorge Julio (an average closer, and great setup man - Palmeiro can't play 1st forever)
- Trade Bell to the Dodgers for Yency Brazoban (quality closer while Gagne was out - they are desperate for a 3B)
21 May 2005
The 40 Game Mark
Before the season began, Charlie Manuel asked everyone to be patient and give the Phillies 40 games to figure out what he had. Since we haven't seen an official 40 game report card from Manuel, let's break down the team through the first quarter of the season.
Hitting - C
This team has really underachieved their expectations at the plate. Last year's torrid offense has turned into a middle of the pack offense this year. Just like last year, their situational hitting has been very poor, especially with runners in scoring position. Thome has really struggled early with a .203 batting average and 1 home run, finishing off the first quarter of the season on the disabled list. The dreaded "decline" is being bandied about to explain Thome, it will take another month or so to know if that is the case, or if this was just a horrendous cold streak. Rollins is struggling to find first base with a .293 OBP, he struggled to start off last year, so hopefully it's a cold weather thing. Abreu has been on fire to end off the first quarter and Burrell was on fire to start the year, both have strong stats to date, which is good news indeed. Bell has not been playing well at all, with a .237 BA to go along with 8 errors. Utley has been hitting very well in his half of the platoon with a .287 BA / 7 HR. Polanco has been sub-par, but has been scoring runs, which is the most important stat for him. Lieberthal has been struggling at the plate, especially with runners in scoring position, making last year's cold start look like an annual occurance. Center field has been average with Michaels/Lofton/Byrd/Chavez combining for respectable numbers.
The Phillies certainly have room for improvement at the plate, especially with runners on base and certainly when they are in scoring position. They have enough bright spots to give them a grade of C, but improvement is required for this team to excel the rest of the year.
Defense - B+
This team was cruisin' along with one of the best defenses in the league until Monday night's disaster in the field. If it weren't for Bells 3 errors and Rollins 2 errors that night, the Phillies would have an A for the quarter. Luckily, those errors were overcome by a strong outing from Lidle and the Phillies still managed to beat the Cardinals. Quickly around the horn, Bell is struggling in the field at 3rd, Rollins looks as solid as ever (1 of those error on Monday was due to a spectacular diving play to get to the ball, then throwing a one-hopper to Howard who couldn't make the scoop). Utley looks like a much stronger defender than advertised and plays hard every day. Thome still has the soft hands. Lieberthal is having trouble throwing runners out, nabbing only 3 of 16 base stealers. Abreu and Burrell continue to be strong defenders and the center field platoon is managing fine.
Keep doing what they are doing, and by the end of the year, the Phillies should once again be one of the best teams in the league defensively.
Off the Bench - C+
The Phillies bench, considered to be a strength at the start of the season, has been more adequate than anything. The platoon situations have been relatively effective, though Polanco should probably be seeing more starts at 3rd base. Thomas Perez has been his usual solid self. Todd Pratt won a game last week all by himself, just missing the cycle by a triple. For the record, he has 3 triples in his career, the last one in 2003. Offerman has been fairly ineffective at pinch hitting with a .182 BA, though he did take a ball off his helmet to help the Phillies win a game at Wrigley Field and hit his first pinch hit home run on Thursday to add an insurance run in the victory against the Cardinals. That home run is actually the last at bat he had for the Phillies as he was cut on Friday to make room for the return of Kenny Lofton. Ryan Howard has been dissappointing in his call up to replace Thome, what did we expect, another Jim Thome straight out of the minors? Actually, yes, but we are a demanding bunch of fans.
Overall the Phillies bench has been slightly below expectations, but continues to be one of the deepest in the majors. With the unique ability to switch players around at several positions, they can navigate there way through injuries very effectively. Chavez adds some nice speed off the bench and Howard adds the power (if he stays up). By the end of the year, the bench will play many more important roles in winning games for the Phillies, and should end up an overall strength.
Starting Pitching - A-
The starting pitching has been a definite bright spot for the Phillies, placing them in the top 4 or 5 teams in the NL. Coming into the season, we weren't quite sure how the staff would fare, with Wolf and Padilla coming back from injuries, Lieber one year removed from Tommy John surgury, and Myers dissappointing 2004. This year it seems to have all come together for the Phillies starters. Lieber has been the same consistent starter that won him 20 games with the Cubs in 2001. As a ground ball pitcher who doesn't walk many batters, he seems to be a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park. Myers is the story of the year so far, with the 3rd best ERA in the National League, just behind Clemens and Dontrelle Willis. He is a changed pitcher from last year, not letting the occasional home run ruin an entire outing, and avoiding the mental mistakes that plagued his 2004. It certainly looks like his potential has finally arrived, and with a little better run support, he could be a 20 win candidate. Lidle has been the model of consistency and has performed very well out of the back of the rotation. His 200 quality innings will be one of the biggest keys to success for the Phillies in 2005, his stats may end up average, but the consistency helps the rest of the staff immensly, especially the relief. Wolf had a very rough start to the season, but has come back to pitch 4 quality start in a row. Padilla hit the DL out of Spring Training and has struggled to regain his form, though his last outing looked his best.
The poor starts of Wolf and Padilla are all that keeps the starters from receiving an A+. As long as everyong can stay healthy, they should keep the Phillies in most games, with the potential to be a special staff.
Relief Pitching - D-
So far this season, the relief pitching has been the Achilles heal of this squad. On paper, these guys looked like one of the best staffs in the majors. Wagner has certainly delivered, but getting to Wagner has been an adventure so far. Madson has been the most consistent (with the exception of 1 or 2 games), and Cormier still seems to be getting left-handers out. After that, the relief staff is worse than failing. Worrell has had a mental blow out to go along with his pitching blow outs. For a guy that has been as consistent over the years as he has been, this is certainly cause for concern. His quality innings were written in ink to start the year, and missing those innings has hand-cuffed the team so far. Terry Adams has also been a disaster, he's only had 2 solid appearances this year, and has to be considered for a demotion at this point.
The Phillies relief staff is more talented than this. If Worrell can return, and the rest of the staff can start to put it together, they can still be one of the better staffs in the game.
Coaching Staff - Incomplete
Manuel has made some interesting decisions during the season so far, and most have not worked out. The biggest issue is with the early exit of starters, which has over-extended the relief staff a bit. His determination to bench Utley against all lefties has also been an area of concern, as well as his loyalty to a struggling Bell at third. But, on the positive side, the team seems to be much more comfortable with Charlie at the helm, and in the long-run that could be just what the doctor ordered. So, at this point he gets a pass and we will give him until the All Star Break to give him a grade.
Dubee looks like the star of the staff so far, with how the starters have performed. Dumping Kerrigan looks like a master stroke so far. Dubee does need to get the middle relief shaped up, or we are in for a long and dissappointing season.
Milt Thompson has been a positive force in the clubhouse, but needs to get the team out of their funk when it comes to situational hitting. The Phillies simply have too much talent up-and-down the order to not score a ton of runs.
Overall - D+
The first 40 games have not been kind to the Phillies. They have an NL worst record at 18-22 and have greatly under-performed with the exception of some individual efforts. The team really hasn't gelled, with key players struggling, and overall inconsistent play from day in to day out. The starting staff is a bright spot, along with Wagner, Abreu and Burrell. The good news is that they are within that magic 5-or-so-games-out-of-first-place position that means anything is still possible. The bad news is they have 4 other teams to leap-frog if they are to win the division. While the first 40 games have been tough, the team is still in a position to turn it all around, but it has to start now.
Hitting - C
This team has really underachieved their expectations at the plate. Last year's torrid offense has turned into a middle of the pack offense this year. Just like last year, their situational hitting has been very poor, especially with runners in scoring position. Thome has really struggled early with a .203 batting average and 1 home run, finishing off the first quarter of the season on the disabled list. The dreaded "decline" is being bandied about to explain Thome, it will take another month or so to know if that is the case, or if this was just a horrendous cold streak. Rollins is struggling to find first base with a .293 OBP, he struggled to start off last year, so hopefully it's a cold weather thing. Abreu has been on fire to end off the first quarter and Burrell was on fire to start the year, both have strong stats to date, which is good news indeed. Bell has not been playing well at all, with a .237 BA to go along with 8 errors. Utley has been hitting very well in his half of the platoon with a .287 BA / 7 HR. Polanco has been sub-par, but has been scoring runs, which is the most important stat for him. Lieberthal has been struggling at the plate, especially with runners in scoring position, making last year's cold start look like an annual occurance. Center field has been average with Michaels/Lofton/Byrd/Chavez combining for respectable numbers.
The Phillies certainly have room for improvement at the plate, especially with runners on base and certainly when they are in scoring position. They have enough bright spots to give them a grade of C, but improvement is required for this team to excel the rest of the year.
Defense - B+
This team was cruisin' along with one of the best defenses in the league until Monday night's disaster in the field. If it weren't for Bells 3 errors and Rollins 2 errors that night, the Phillies would have an A for the quarter. Luckily, those errors were overcome by a strong outing from Lidle and the Phillies still managed to beat the Cardinals. Quickly around the horn, Bell is struggling in the field at 3rd, Rollins looks as solid as ever (1 of those error on Monday was due to a spectacular diving play to get to the ball, then throwing a one-hopper to Howard who couldn't make the scoop). Utley looks like a much stronger defender than advertised and plays hard every day. Thome still has the soft hands. Lieberthal is having trouble throwing runners out, nabbing only 3 of 16 base stealers. Abreu and Burrell continue to be strong defenders and the center field platoon is managing fine.
Keep doing what they are doing, and by the end of the year, the Phillies should once again be one of the best teams in the league defensively.
Off the Bench - C+
The Phillies bench, considered to be a strength at the start of the season, has been more adequate than anything. The platoon situations have been relatively effective, though Polanco should probably be seeing more starts at 3rd base. Thomas Perez has been his usual solid self. Todd Pratt won a game last week all by himself, just missing the cycle by a triple. For the record, he has 3 triples in his career, the last one in 2003. Offerman has been fairly ineffective at pinch hitting with a .182 BA, though he did take a ball off his helmet to help the Phillies win a game at Wrigley Field and hit his first pinch hit home run on Thursday to add an insurance run in the victory against the Cardinals. That home run is actually the last at bat he had for the Phillies as he was cut on Friday to make room for the return of Kenny Lofton. Ryan Howard has been dissappointing in his call up to replace Thome, what did we expect, another Jim Thome straight out of the minors? Actually, yes, but we are a demanding bunch of fans.
Overall the Phillies bench has been slightly below expectations, but continues to be one of the deepest in the majors. With the unique ability to switch players around at several positions, they can navigate there way through injuries very effectively. Chavez adds some nice speed off the bench and Howard adds the power (if he stays up). By the end of the year, the bench will play many more important roles in winning games for the Phillies, and should end up an overall strength.
Starting Pitching - A-
The starting pitching has been a definite bright spot for the Phillies, placing them in the top 4 or 5 teams in the NL. Coming into the season, we weren't quite sure how the staff would fare, with Wolf and Padilla coming back from injuries, Lieber one year removed from Tommy John surgury, and Myers dissappointing 2004. This year it seems to have all come together for the Phillies starters. Lieber has been the same consistent starter that won him 20 games with the Cubs in 2001. As a ground ball pitcher who doesn't walk many batters, he seems to be a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park. Myers is the story of the year so far, with the 3rd best ERA in the National League, just behind Clemens and Dontrelle Willis. He is a changed pitcher from last year, not letting the occasional home run ruin an entire outing, and avoiding the mental mistakes that plagued his 2004. It certainly looks like his potential has finally arrived, and with a little better run support, he could be a 20 win candidate. Lidle has been the model of consistency and has performed very well out of the back of the rotation. His 200 quality innings will be one of the biggest keys to success for the Phillies in 2005, his stats may end up average, but the consistency helps the rest of the staff immensly, especially the relief. Wolf had a very rough start to the season, but has come back to pitch 4 quality start in a row. Padilla hit the DL out of Spring Training and has struggled to regain his form, though his last outing looked his best.
The poor starts of Wolf and Padilla are all that keeps the starters from receiving an A+. As long as everyong can stay healthy, they should keep the Phillies in most games, with the potential to be a special staff.
Relief Pitching - D-
So far this season, the relief pitching has been the Achilles heal of this squad. On paper, these guys looked like one of the best staffs in the majors. Wagner has certainly delivered, but getting to Wagner has been an adventure so far. Madson has been the most consistent (with the exception of 1 or 2 games), and Cormier still seems to be getting left-handers out. After that, the relief staff is worse than failing. Worrell has had a mental blow out to go along with his pitching blow outs. For a guy that has been as consistent over the years as he has been, this is certainly cause for concern. His quality innings were written in ink to start the year, and missing those innings has hand-cuffed the team so far. Terry Adams has also been a disaster, he's only had 2 solid appearances this year, and has to be considered for a demotion at this point.
The Phillies relief staff is more talented than this. If Worrell can return, and the rest of the staff can start to put it together, they can still be one of the better staffs in the game.
Coaching Staff - Incomplete
Manuel has made some interesting decisions during the season so far, and most have not worked out. The biggest issue is with the early exit of starters, which has over-extended the relief staff a bit. His determination to bench Utley against all lefties has also been an area of concern, as well as his loyalty to a struggling Bell at third. But, on the positive side, the team seems to be much more comfortable with Charlie at the helm, and in the long-run that could be just what the doctor ordered. So, at this point he gets a pass and we will give him until the All Star Break to give him a grade.
Dubee looks like the star of the staff so far, with how the starters have performed. Dumping Kerrigan looks like a master stroke so far. Dubee does need to get the middle relief shaped up, or we are in for a long and dissappointing season.
Milt Thompson has been a positive force in the clubhouse, but needs to get the team out of their funk when it comes to situational hitting. The Phillies simply have too much talent up-and-down the order to not score a ton of runs.
Overall - D+
The first 40 games have not been kind to the Phillies. They have an NL worst record at 18-22 and have greatly under-performed with the exception of some individual efforts. The team really hasn't gelled, with key players struggling, and overall inconsistent play from day in to day out. The starting staff is a bright spot, along with Wagner, Abreu and Burrell. The good news is that they are within that magic 5-or-so-games-out-of-first-place position that means anything is still possible. The bad news is they have 4 other teams to leap-frog if they are to win the division. While the first 40 games have been tough, the team is still in a position to turn it all around, but it has to start now.
17 May 2005
Byrd is Free to Soar
After having a couple of days to contemplate the Byrd for Chavez trade that the "crafty" Ed Wade pulled off, here are some thoughts.
As many others have stated, what was the purpose of trading a spare centerfielder for another spare centerfielder? The Phillies already have a capable platoon in center, though at some point it would be nice to see Michaels play every day. Why can't he put up 20HR / 80BI / .280 numbers? Lofton is a nice OBP guy with speed, so it's not bad seeing him out there either.
During the off-season when the original F-Rod was traded for Lofton, it didn't make much sense. Byrd had the upside, Michaels was progressing nicely, and the Phillies could really have used another arm. Adams essentially replaced Rodriquez's lineup spot and has been a disaster. F-Rod hasn't been much better, but the point is, why not get an arm to help out in the struggling bullpen. Couldn't we have gotten Luis Ayala or something? A quality arm that can eat up innings without blowing games. For once, Wade should have made a trade for a relief pitcher during the season. Wade seems to make pretty decent moves in the off-season, but has yet to show the ability to help the team during the year. At this point, the Phillies struggles are hardly Wade's fault, but if he was trying to help, another arm is what they need now.
What of this Endy Chavez? He's been kicking around the majors since 2001, and his career stats over a 162 game period work out to 5HR / 45BI / 25SB / .263, so he's approximately a Doug Glanville. Nothing too special, but he has some speed. With a career OBP of .304, he really isn't suited to bat lead-off. JRoll is a career .322 OBP (.348 last year), so he stays at the lead-off spot for now. Chavez is basically a spare part that will be a pinch hitter/runner/defensive replacement.
The bottom-line, the Phillies pass on the upside of Byrd for Chavez who fills the same role.
As many others have stated, what was the purpose of trading a spare centerfielder for another spare centerfielder? The Phillies already have a capable platoon in center, though at some point it would be nice to see Michaels play every day. Why can't he put up 20HR / 80BI / .280 numbers? Lofton is a nice OBP guy with speed, so it's not bad seeing him out there either.
During the off-season when the original F-Rod was traded for Lofton, it didn't make much sense. Byrd had the upside, Michaels was progressing nicely, and the Phillies could really have used another arm. Adams essentially replaced Rodriquez's lineup spot and has been a disaster. F-Rod hasn't been much better, but the point is, why not get an arm to help out in the struggling bullpen. Couldn't we have gotten Luis Ayala or something? A quality arm that can eat up innings without blowing games. For once, Wade should have made a trade for a relief pitcher during the season. Wade seems to make pretty decent moves in the off-season, but has yet to show the ability to help the team during the year. At this point, the Phillies struggles are hardly Wade's fault, but if he was trying to help, another arm is what they need now.
What of this Endy Chavez? He's been kicking around the majors since 2001, and his career stats over a 162 game period work out to 5HR / 45BI / 25SB / .263, so he's approximately a Doug Glanville. Nothing too special, but he has some speed. With a career OBP of .304, he really isn't suited to bat lead-off. JRoll is a career .322 OBP (.348 last year), so he stays at the lead-off spot for now. Chavez is basically a spare part that will be a pinch hitter/runner/defensive replacement.
The bottom-line, the Phillies pass on the upside of Byrd for Chavez who fills the same role.
14 May 2005
No Relief Part 2
Watching the game tonight on FSN and the Phillies were cruising through 6 innings with Wolf holding the Reds offense to 2 runs and the Phillies holding a 4-2 lead. Since Wolf reached the 100 pitch mark in the 6th inning, Manuel took him out of the game and put in Ryan Madson (more on this in a bit). Ryan gets Harang (the pitcher) out, then a hit-by-pitch, an infield single, then a solid single to plate 1 run, and 2 left-handers coming up in Griffey and Dunn. At this point, most baseball people would look at the book and go to a leftie specialist to face the Reds big left handed bats. That pitcher's name is Rheal Cormier and his job description is clear -- he's the one who is paid to get tough left handers out. But, Charlie Manuel apparently has not read that book and leaves Madson in the game. To Ryan's credit, the first 2 batters had a lot of luck getting on base, and he has been the most dependable arm out of the pen. But outs are at a premium for the Phillies in the middle innings, so why not switch to Cormier. Of course, Griffey hits a 3 run shot on a hanging breaking ball from Madson. Now the Phillies are down 6-4 with Dunn up to bat, surely Madson's night is done. Nope, he stays in and gives up a moon shot to Adam Dunn. Now Madson's night really has to be "Dunn" for sure, right...nope, like watching a boxing match that has gotten out of hand, Manuel leaves him in to face Austin Kearns who promtly laces a double down the line. Mercifully, Manuel trots out to a chorus of well deserved boos to replace Madson. What gives here? Did Charlie give up on the game once Griffey hit the home run? Can't we try and stop the bleading and get a couple of tough outs, then give the hitters a chance to get back into this game. It was inexplicable why Manuel left Madson in, and really inexcusable. The game ends in a 12-4 pounding.
Back to Wolf. His curve wasn't working, but he was mixing his pitches enough and getting key outs. So he hits the 100 pitch mark, and it is understandable they want to treat him carefully, after the injuries last year, but why not let him start the 7th and see if he can get through it with a low number of pitches. It's not like Randy has pitched many innings this year with the way he was throwing early on. Getting the starter through the 7th inning is really the way a baseball game is supposed to work, if the starter has a good night, he should go at least 7 innings. With the 9th belonging to Wagner, that means the Phillies relief staff only has to get through 3 outs. Let's see, 5 pitchers for 3 outs, that should be do-able. Playing matchups and the hot hand should get you through most of those innings really. There just is no reason to bring Wolf out of the game at this point. Ryan Howard pinch hit for him with 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th, but no one was on base. If the Phillies were in a scoring situation, then by all means pinch hit, but with no one on and 2 outs, what the heck? In contrast, the Reds let Aaron Harang lead off the 7th, recognizing that he was pitching fairly well and not wanting to dip into their bullpen too early. He ended up making the final out of the inning too, as the Reds batted around.
This strategy of pulling starters early is eerily similar to the Bowa led Phillies of the last couple of years. With the Phillies loaded with good relief arms, Bowa leaned heavily on the bullpen only to have them break down late in the year. This year, the relief is looking broken down in the early part of the year, so what chance do they have later if they are overworked now. The Phillies have to get 200 plus innings out of their startes to preserve the back-end of the staff. If you don't do that, you can't win late in the year (without a few trades that is).
Midway Phillies is trying to remain positive until the 40 game mark, but at this point, things look really really bad, and much of it has to fall on Manuel's shoulders at this point. The chants to replace Manuel are a little early to start, but this team has to come together quick, if it isn't already too late. But again, there are enough positive signs and talent with this team to believe they can pull off a miracle come-back to the season, so for now we maintain the glass is half-full optimism. It's the weekend again, so let's all tip back a few of those glasses and hope it can somehow turn around.
Back to Wolf. His curve wasn't working, but he was mixing his pitches enough and getting key outs. So he hits the 100 pitch mark, and it is understandable they want to treat him carefully, after the injuries last year, but why not let him start the 7th and see if he can get through it with a low number of pitches. It's not like Randy has pitched many innings this year with the way he was throwing early on. Getting the starter through the 7th inning is really the way a baseball game is supposed to work, if the starter has a good night, he should go at least 7 innings. With the 9th belonging to Wagner, that means the Phillies relief staff only has to get through 3 outs. Let's see, 5 pitchers for 3 outs, that should be do-able. Playing matchups and the hot hand should get you through most of those innings really. There just is no reason to bring Wolf out of the game at this point. Ryan Howard pinch hit for him with 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th, but no one was on base. If the Phillies were in a scoring situation, then by all means pinch hit, but with no one on and 2 outs, what the heck? In contrast, the Reds let Aaron Harang lead off the 7th, recognizing that he was pitching fairly well and not wanting to dip into their bullpen too early. He ended up making the final out of the inning too, as the Reds batted around.
This strategy of pulling starters early is eerily similar to the Bowa led Phillies of the last couple of years. With the Phillies loaded with good relief arms, Bowa leaned heavily on the bullpen only to have them break down late in the year. This year, the relief is looking broken down in the early part of the year, so what chance do they have later if they are overworked now. The Phillies have to get 200 plus innings out of their startes to preserve the back-end of the staff. If you don't do that, you can't win late in the year (without a few trades that is).
Midway Phillies is trying to remain positive until the 40 game mark, but at this point, things look really really bad, and much of it has to fall on Manuel's shoulders at this point. The chants to replace Manuel are a little early to start, but this team has to come together quick, if it isn't already too late. But again, there are enough positive signs and talent with this team to believe they can pull off a miracle come-back to the season, so for now we maintain the glass is half-full optimism. It's the weekend again, so let's all tip back a few of those glasses and hope it can somehow turn around.
12 May 2005
R-O-L-A-I-D-S
The Phillies are in desperate need of some relief. What happened to the team's relief pitching this year? Coming into spring training, the Phillies looked like they had one of the deepest bullpens in the game with Wagner, Worrell, Madson, Cormier and Adams. If the Phillies had a lead in the 7th inning, they weren't supposed to loose a game. So what's up with these guys, is it just a run of bad luck, or are we in for a painful season of 6-7-8 innings.
Let's break them down:
Billy Wagner
So far, he's been great. With the injuries seemingly behind him, the 9th inning has become the Sandman's time to shine. With the exception of an 8th inning home run to Derrick Lee at Wrigley, Wagner has been perfect. He hasn't allowed a run in the 9th inning this year, so if we can get a lead going into the 9th, things are safe.
Tim Worrell
In the second game of the season, Worrell gave up 4 runs to the Nationals, since then, the crowds at Citizens Bank Ballpark have been relentless resulting in him giving up runs in 7 of his 14 appearances. A heafty 9.82 ERA. This has caused Worrell to ask for "time off" and he is blaming the crowd for the added stress. Philly is a tough place for any player to work through a slump, but he seems to have taken it especially hard. This is a guy who hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 this millenium, so it's tough to see him struggling. It's rumored that he is a possible trade candidate (possibly back to the Giants). This would be a shame, as Worrell has been one of the more dependable relievers in the game the past 4 years. It's tough to place the blame of a season on one person's shoulders, but if the Phils had the reliable Worrell setting things up, they would probably be above .500 right now.
Ryan Madson
He started out shaky at the beginning of the season bringing up fears of the dreaded sophomore slump (see Marlon Byrd). But since then, he's been the Phillies most dependable arm out of the pen (after Wagner), not giving up a run since April 20th. It's starting to look like last year was for real, and with Worrell hurt, he may become the permanent set-up man.
Rheal Cormier
A questionable re-signing this offseason, Cormier was really only considered to be a leftie specialist. So far he has been hit or miss, and being needed in more innings than a specialist should have to be needed in. For the season, Cormier has a .231 BAA vs. lefties and .375 vs. righties. He should definitely only be used in an inning where 2 or more lefties are due up, or do the old come-in-for-1-out-then-replace-him routine. In that role he could be more effective, the problem is with the other arms the Phillies are depending on in the tweener innings (that would be the innings between the starter and wagner) requiring him to be run out to the mound more than he should be.
Terry Adams
The very questionable signing of Adams was supposedly bringing in a quality veteran arm to the middle innings of games where he could excel. Remember in 2001 when this guy was signed to be the Phillies ace? Those were dark days indeed. Since then he has been put back into the pen and done ok, but certainly nothing special. This year, he's getting torched nearly every time out. His last 2 outings he has totaled 2/3 of an inning and 8 earned runs...8 EARNED runs! and needless to say 2 very bad losses to the Brewers and Mets, not exactly offensive juggernauts. Let's not throw this guy for awhile, we really need to win some games. The way Adams is pitching, he is best suited for mop up duty or perhaps an outright release.
The Others
The Gavin Floyd experiment went awry and put a couple of games out of reach for the Phillies. Liriano has been generally inaffective. Fultz and Geary look pretty good, but aren't used in key situations. All of this has lead to 5 outright losses and too many blown saves. Why can't the starters stay in a little longer. Lidle has been pulled in his last 2 starts only to get a no-decision and a loss thanks to the bullpen. Both starts where he was cruising, possibly a career night against the Brewers even. At least the Phillies won the game against the Cubs after pulling Lidle early. One bit of advice to Manuel, keep the starter in a little longer if they are pitching strong and are under 100 pitches. Don't make the same mistakes Bowa made by going to the pen way too early, that only results in the relief pitchers being worn out by the All-Star break.
The Phillies are desperate for relief, especially from proven arms like Cormier (in a specialist role) and Worrell (if he plans on coming back at all). Maybe with the Reds in town for a 4 game set, they can be the relief we need. Let's just say we need to win 3 out of 4 at home with the Cardinals and Orioles coming up next. That 40 game mark is coming up soon (next Tuesday to be exact), and it will be interesting to hear what Manuel has to say if they haven't won a few more games by then.
Let's break them down:
Billy Wagner
So far, he's been great. With the injuries seemingly behind him, the 9th inning has become the Sandman's time to shine. With the exception of an 8th inning home run to Derrick Lee at Wrigley, Wagner has been perfect. He hasn't allowed a run in the 9th inning this year, so if we can get a lead going into the 9th, things are safe.
Tim Worrell
In the second game of the season, Worrell gave up 4 runs to the Nationals, since then, the crowds at Citizens Bank Ballpark have been relentless resulting in him giving up runs in 7 of his 14 appearances. A heafty 9.82 ERA. This has caused Worrell to ask for "time off" and he is blaming the crowd for the added stress. Philly is a tough place for any player to work through a slump, but he seems to have taken it especially hard. This is a guy who hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 this millenium, so it's tough to see him struggling. It's rumored that he is a possible trade candidate (possibly back to the Giants). This would be a shame, as Worrell has been one of the more dependable relievers in the game the past 4 years. It's tough to place the blame of a season on one person's shoulders, but if the Phils had the reliable Worrell setting things up, they would probably be above .500 right now.
Ryan Madson
He started out shaky at the beginning of the season bringing up fears of the dreaded sophomore slump (see Marlon Byrd). But since then, he's been the Phillies most dependable arm out of the pen (after Wagner), not giving up a run since April 20th. It's starting to look like last year was for real, and with Worrell hurt, he may become the permanent set-up man.
Rheal Cormier
A questionable re-signing this offseason, Cormier was really only considered to be a leftie specialist. So far he has been hit or miss, and being needed in more innings than a specialist should have to be needed in. For the season, Cormier has a .231 BAA vs. lefties and .375 vs. righties. He should definitely only be used in an inning where 2 or more lefties are due up, or do the old come-in-for-1-out-then-replace-him routine. In that role he could be more effective, the problem is with the other arms the Phillies are depending on in the tweener innings (that would be the innings between the starter and wagner) requiring him to be run out to the mound more than he should be.
Terry Adams
The very questionable signing of Adams was supposedly bringing in a quality veteran arm to the middle innings of games where he could excel. Remember in 2001 when this guy was signed to be the Phillies ace? Those were dark days indeed. Since then he has been put back into the pen and done ok, but certainly nothing special. This year, he's getting torched nearly every time out. His last 2 outings he has totaled 2/3 of an inning and 8 earned runs...8 EARNED runs! and needless to say 2 very bad losses to the Brewers and Mets, not exactly offensive juggernauts. Let's not throw this guy for awhile, we really need to win some games. The way Adams is pitching, he is best suited for mop up duty or perhaps an outright release.
The Others
The Gavin Floyd experiment went awry and put a couple of games out of reach for the Phillies. Liriano has been generally inaffective. Fultz and Geary look pretty good, but aren't used in key situations. All of this has lead to 5 outright losses and too many blown saves. Why can't the starters stay in a little longer. Lidle has been pulled in his last 2 starts only to get a no-decision and a loss thanks to the bullpen. Both starts where he was cruising, possibly a career night against the Brewers even. At least the Phillies won the game against the Cubs after pulling Lidle early. One bit of advice to Manuel, keep the starter in a little longer if they are pitching strong and are under 100 pitches. Don't make the same mistakes Bowa made by going to the pen way too early, that only results in the relief pitchers being worn out by the All-Star break.
The Phillies are desperate for relief, especially from proven arms like Cormier (in a specialist role) and Worrell (if he plans on coming back at all). Maybe with the Reds in town for a 4 game set, they can be the relief we need. Let's just say we need to win 3 out of 4 at home with the Cardinals and Orioles coming up next. That 40 game mark is coming up soon (next Tuesday to be exact), and it will be interesting to hear what Manuel has to say if they haven't won a few more games by then.
09 May 2005
Let Utley Play! Let Utley Play!
Maybe if everyone chants it from every rooftop Manuel will bow to the pressure and let Chase Utley play in every game. After watching Baseball Tonight and seeing Utley go deep -- make that very deep -- not once but twice against the Brew Crew, the announcers submitted their opinions of the Utley situation. Harold Reynolds chants "Let Utley Play Everyday" while showing the home runs, he goes on to suggest that defense isn't that big of an issue as long as you can turn the double play, and he can. Well said, and as it has been documented here and elsewhere, the guy just keeps making great plays in the field.
Let's take a closer look at their career fielding percentages at 2B:
Utley .981
Polanco .990
Not that far apart, Polanco is definitely a better fielder overall, but with the added power that Utley provides, the few extra errors will more than balance themselves in favor of him playing everyday. Reynolds goes on to compare Chase to Jeff Kent. How many times have we heard that now? " Just let him play and he will give you 25-30 home runs." (Kruk actually said that).
Here's an updated comparison, decide for yourself:
Utley 6HR / 12BI / .311
Kent 7HR / 26BI / .330
And that's with 38 fewer at bats. Put some guys on base in front of him and those RBI's will balloon.
John Kruk, the loveable, laughable, ex-Phillie calls Utley and Polanco the 2 best players on the team, with regard to how they play the game day in and day out. He also says that Abreu has the most talent. Kruk also thinks Utley has the most speed of anyone on the team going from 1st to 3rd. Quite surprising actually, my vote would be Rollins in that department. Chase does have 8 career stolen bases with only 1 caught stealing though; so maybe.
C'mon Manuel, we all love David Bell's attitude, but if his back is hurting him and while he is slumping at the plate, you just have to let Polanco take over at 3rd more often than not. And just look at the defensive comparisons for Bell and Polanco at 3B (Career fielding percentages):
Polanco .981
Bell .956
Bell has actually been a .943 fielder the past 2 years, so wouldn't the Phillies actually have a stronger defense with Polanco and Utley at 3B and 2B?
Let Utley Play! Let Utley Play!
Let's take a closer look at their career fielding percentages at 2B:
Utley .981
Polanco .990
Not that far apart, Polanco is definitely a better fielder overall, but with the added power that Utley provides, the few extra errors will more than balance themselves in favor of him playing everyday. Reynolds goes on to compare Chase to Jeff Kent. How many times have we heard that now? " Just let him play and he will give you 25-30 home runs." (Kruk actually said that).
Here's an updated comparison, decide for yourself:
Utley 6HR / 12BI / .311
Kent 7HR / 26BI / .330
And that's with 38 fewer at bats. Put some guys on base in front of him and those RBI's will balloon.
John Kruk, the loveable, laughable, ex-Phillie calls Utley and Polanco the 2 best players on the team, with regard to how they play the game day in and day out. He also says that Abreu has the most talent. Kruk also thinks Utley has the most speed of anyone on the team going from 1st to 3rd. Quite surprising actually, my vote would be Rollins in that department. Chase does have 8 career stolen bases with only 1 caught stealing though; so maybe.
C'mon Manuel, we all love David Bell's attitude, but if his back is hurting him and while he is slumping at the plate, you just have to let Polanco take over at 3rd more often than not. And just look at the defensive comparisons for Bell and Polanco at 3B (Career fielding percentages):
Polanco .981
Bell .956
Bell has actually been a .943 fielder the past 2 years, so wouldn't the Phillies actually have a stronger defense with Polanco and Utley at 3B and 2B?
Let Utley Play! Let Utley Play!
06 May 2005
Crazy Day, Much Needed Win
Just got back from Wrigley after watching a well-played, crazy-silly-never-before-seen finish to a baseball game. This was a game that the Phillies clearly needed to win to buoy their confidence and try to get something started before the season slips away. Facing a Cubs team that is in disarray and had lost 5 in a row should be a boost to the confidence. The Phillies looked great the first 2 innings, punishing Mark Prior's offerings, only to come away with a disappointing 1 run for the effort. Cory Lidle baffled the Cubs through 7 1/3 with no runs and only 3 hits allowed until a seeing eye single and sacrifice bunt (thanks for the free out Dusty) chased him from the game.
That's when things got crazy, Wagner gives up a 2 run shot to Derrick Lee with 2 outs in the 8th. It didn't seem like a bad pitch, but Wagner fell in the hole 3-0 and had to put some fastballs over the plate, and with the way Lee is hitting right now, no one can seem to get him out. Thankfully the Cubs are sticking with LaTroy Hawkins as their closer who promtly loaded the bases in the 9th with 1 out. He somehow induces a double play liner back to himself, but proceeds to throw the ball off of Jose Offerman's helmet and into the stands, plating 2 more runs. The inning ends with Wagner taking some wild swings for the 3rd out of the inning. This was actually Wagner's second at-bat of the season. He's now hitting .500. The 9th inning went much smoother with Wagner setting down the side in order to finish off the win. Phew, that was an exhausting win.
Since this is one of the few Phillies games I'll see this season, it seems an appropriate time to report on some of the interesting sights and sounds of the game.
1) Lieber to DH? Jon was taking batting practice before the game and launcing home runs over the right field wall. A nice display of hitting, which made me look up his hitting stats. A career .150 hitter (.000 this year) and never a home run. Well, maybe he isn't ready to DH yet, but the wind at Wrigley and a batting practice pitcher sure made him look like he could.
2) That kid can play. Chase Utley, a favorite topic here at Midway Phillies made a dazzling play in the field in the or 3rd inning to rob a sure base hit by diving to his right and just catching the speedy Corey Patterson. Utley also just missed a home run in his first at bat, putting the ball to the wall in straight away center. This kid has all the skills, so keep him in there.
3) Situational hitting still alludes us. With Prior clearly struggling in the 2nd inning, the Phillies loaded the bases (after a Burrell solo shot) with no outs. You figure 1 run is a given at this point, with the chance to score a lot more. Nope, Lieberthatl, Lidle and Rollins each struck out. Ok, Lidle is the pitcher, so he is given a pass here, but Lieberthal swinging at strike 3 in the dirt? All you gotta do is make contact. Even a double play scores a run. After that Prior settled down and didn't look back, matching Lidle's day. Then in the 9th, they load the bases with 1 out, if it weren't for the misfortune of Hawkins hitting Offerman in the head, the game might have ended there. Those runners-in-scoring-position-with-less-than-2-outs-but-still-not-plating-a-run innings are just killers. Note to Manuel, please work on this.
4) Lidle's quite crafty. We saw it last year when Cory came to the Phils, every other start it seemed he was throwing a shutout. The others he was getting torched. They told us he would be torched more than un-touchable, but the Phils signed him anyway. It didn't seem the wisest move at the time with Floyd seemingly ready for the big time, but it really has worked out so far this year. The way he mixes pitches, location and speeds, he can pitch with the best of them on any given day. A great asset from a supposed 5th starter.
5) Wagner brings the heat. After loosing out to injurys last year, Wagner's fastball seemed to be down a few MPH. While catching a couple of games at the end of the season at Bank One park, his fastball didn't make it over 94. Today, he was throwing 97 consistently. With the heater all of the way back, he should turn in one of those great years. The home run to Lee is just the first run he has allowed this year.
With that much needed win in the books, hopefully the Phillies can put together a much, much more needed winning streak. The next 2 pitching matchups certainly look good. Could they actually sweep? If they do, maybe they can get on a roll and get back into the thick of the NL East. Yes, still maintaining the half full glass optimism, and tipping a few of those glasses back this weekend.
That's when things got crazy, Wagner gives up a 2 run shot to Derrick Lee with 2 outs in the 8th. It didn't seem like a bad pitch, but Wagner fell in the hole 3-0 and had to put some fastballs over the plate, and with the way Lee is hitting right now, no one can seem to get him out. Thankfully the Cubs are sticking with LaTroy Hawkins as their closer who promtly loaded the bases in the 9th with 1 out. He somehow induces a double play liner back to himself, but proceeds to throw the ball off of Jose Offerman's helmet and into the stands, plating 2 more runs. The inning ends with Wagner taking some wild swings for the 3rd out of the inning. This was actually Wagner's second at-bat of the season. He's now hitting .500. The 9th inning went much smoother with Wagner setting down the side in order to finish off the win. Phew, that was an exhausting win.
Since this is one of the few Phillies games I'll see this season, it seems an appropriate time to report on some of the interesting sights and sounds of the game.
1) Lieber to DH? Jon was taking batting practice before the game and launcing home runs over the right field wall. A nice display of hitting, which made me look up his hitting stats. A career .150 hitter (.000 this year) and never a home run. Well, maybe he isn't ready to DH yet, but the wind at Wrigley and a batting practice pitcher sure made him look like he could.
2) That kid can play. Chase Utley, a favorite topic here at Midway Phillies made a dazzling play in the field in the or 3rd inning to rob a sure base hit by diving to his right and just catching the speedy Corey Patterson. Utley also just missed a home run in his first at bat, putting the ball to the wall in straight away center. This kid has all the skills, so keep him in there.
3) Situational hitting still alludes us. With Prior clearly struggling in the 2nd inning, the Phillies loaded the bases (after a Burrell solo shot) with no outs. You figure 1 run is a given at this point, with the chance to score a lot more. Nope, Lieberthatl, Lidle and Rollins each struck out. Ok, Lidle is the pitcher, so he is given a pass here, but Lieberthal swinging at strike 3 in the dirt? All you gotta do is make contact. Even a double play scores a run. After that Prior settled down and didn't look back, matching Lidle's day. Then in the 9th, they load the bases with 1 out, if it weren't for the misfortune of Hawkins hitting Offerman in the head, the game might have ended there. Those runners-in-scoring-position-with-less-than-2-outs-but-still-not-plating-a-run innings are just killers. Note to Manuel, please work on this.
4) Lidle's quite crafty. We saw it last year when Cory came to the Phils, every other start it seemed he was throwing a shutout. The others he was getting torched. They told us he would be torched more than un-touchable, but the Phils signed him anyway. It didn't seem the wisest move at the time with Floyd seemingly ready for the big time, but it really has worked out so far this year. The way he mixes pitches, location and speeds, he can pitch with the best of them on any given day. A great asset from a supposed 5th starter.
5) Wagner brings the heat. After loosing out to injurys last year, Wagner's fastball seemed to be down a few MPH. While catching a couple of games at the end of the season at Bank One park, his fastball didn't make it over 94. Today, he was throwing 97 consistently. With the heater all of the way back, he should turn in one of those great years. The home run to Lee is just the first run he has allowed this year.
With that much needed win in the books, hopefully the Phillies can put together a much, much more needed winning streak. The next 2 pitching matchups certainly look good. Could they actually sweep? If they do, maybe they can get on a roll and get back into the thick of the NL East. Yes, still maintaining the half full glass optimism, and tipping a few of those glasses back this weekend.
04 May 2005
Let Utley Play
In a previous post, credit was given to the Phillies for letting Utley play full time. Since then, it appears he is still stuck in a straight platoon situation with Polanco. This is quite obvious when Thomas Perez gets the nod at first the last couple of nights while Thome recovers, rather than have Utley play. Not to knock Perez, but he's the Phillies true utility guy, as opposed to Placido "Super Utility" Polanco. Perez's seaonal average (if you assume 162 games) is 6HR / 40RBI / .247, so he's not exactly going to light the world on fire with his bat. Now that Ryan "the Bull Part 2" Howard is up, he should take the lion's share of time at first while Thome is down. And, Howard is an exciting guy to watch, I can't wait to see him hit a few out in batting practice this Friday at Wrigley. Yes, still stuck in Chicago, at least the weather is starting to get better.
Back to Utley. Not to sound like a broken record, but why isn't Polanco taking at bats away from David Bell who is hitting a meager .217? If you break it down, the kid they refered to as the next Jeff Kent is really starting to look like Jeff Kent. For the sake of argument, let's extrapolate Utley's numbers supposing he had the same total at bats as Kent 55 vs. 94. That would look something like this:
Chase Utley 5HR / 15BI / .327
Jeff Kent 6HR / 21BI / .319
Pretty similar numbers wouldn't you say? Of course there is the argument that Chase only faces right handers and his career numbers against lefties isn't so great. Well, how do we know for sure, he has only 57 at bats against lefties in his entire major league career. With Bell's hitting in the dumps, could Utley be any worse than him right now? To further the comparison of Utley and Kent, let's look at their seasonal averages (based on 162 games played), the totals would look like this:
Chase Ultey 19HR / 91BI / .265
Jeff Kent 28HR / 110BI / .290
Still a little way to go to be as productive as Kent, but not far off. In fact, Kent's first full season in 1993 with the Mets yielded a 21HR/ 80BI / .270 campaign, very similar numbers, heck, almost identical.
So given this, let's play arm-chair manager for a moment and give Utley a chance to play everyday and show us what he is capable of. In fact, let's set the infield as Howard/Utley/Rollins/Polanco and see how it goes. All of these guys are very productive hitters and quite capable defenders. If Howard struggles, move Utley over to First, Polanco to Second and Bell to Third. It's all about keeping the most productive hitters in the lineup for the greatest number of at bats, and hitters are more productive when they have a regular role.
We have to at least find out, don't we?
Back to Utley. Not to sound like a broken record, but why isn't Polanco taking at bats away from David Bell who is hitting a meager .217? If you break it down, the kid they refered to as the next Jeff Kent is really starting to look like Jeff Kent. For the sake of argument, let's extrapolate Utley's numbers supposing he had the same total at bats as Kent 55 vs. 94. That would look something like this:
Chase Utley 5HR / 15BI / .327
Jeff Kent 6HR / 21BI / .319
Pretty similar numbers wouldn't you say? Of course there is the argument that Chase only faces right handers and his career numbers against lefties isn't so great. Well, how do we know for sure, he has only 57 at bats against lefties in his entire major league career. With Bell's hitting in the dumps, could Utley be any worse than him right now? To further the comparison of Utley and Kent, let's look at their seasonal averages (based on 162 games played), the totals would look like this:
Chase Ultey 19HR / 91BI / .265
Jeff Kent 28HR / 110BI / .290
Still a little way to go to be as productive as Kent, but not far off. In fact, Kent's first full season in 1993 with the Mets yielded a 21HR/ 80BI / .270 campaign, very similar numbers, heck, almost identical.
So given this, let's play arm-chair manager for a moment and give Utley a chance to play everyday and show us what he is capable of. In fact, let's set the infield as Howard/Utley/Rollins/Polanco and see how it goes. All of these guys are very productive hitters and quite capable defenders. If Howard struggles, move Utley over to First, Polanco to Second and Bell to Third. It's all about keeping the most productive hitters in the lineup for the greatest number of at bats, and hitters are more productive when they have a regular role.
We have to at least find out, don't we?
02 May 2005
One Month Mark
The first month of baseball is over and the Phils are 10-14, in last place and 5 games behind the East leading Marlins. (At least we finally beat the fish to start off May) So, how is the team doing with 24 games under their belt in 2005? Many might say horrific, terrible, dem bums, or something of that sort, and who could blame them for a last place April showing. But, why not keep our heads up and look at the glass as half full, especially with 5 months of baseball left. After all, this same Phillies club had a pitiful April in 2004 and managed to run up a 3 game lead on the division just before the All Star break, so why can't that happen again? And, this time maybe the pitching staff will stay healthy and the team can avoid the disastrous slide of 2004's second season.
So, here are 5 positive things to keep in mind and keep us sane for the next month of the season.
1. We have our health. So far, no major injuries have cropped up to bite the Phillies, always a good sign for a team that has playoff aspirations. Sure, there's been the recent back pain for Thome and Lofton's hamstring, and Burrell's groin, but nothing major, and that's a key after last year.
2. The top 2 starters. Last year it was the Mil's boys at the top of the rotation, and I don't thing we need to rehash that pain. This year it's a resurgent Lieber and a more mature Myers anchoring the staff. The good news is that Lieber is pitching as expected, keeping the ball down, winning 4 games already with a solid ERA of 3.03. A full year of these kind of performances will quickly put Millwood and Milton out of our minds. The more surprising (and pleasantly so) story is Brett Myers. For several years now, he has been heralded as the next coming of Curt Schilling and with his nasty stuff it seemed to be a realistic thought. After a poor showing in 2004, Myers has a microscopic 1.35 ERA and just under 1 baserunner allowed per inning, both incredible numbers after his 5.52 ERA last year and a 4.59 career mark. Even more encouraging are his strike out totals at just about 1 per inning, well up from his career marks, a great sign of things to come. This all bodes well for his progression to a top-of-the-line starter for the Phils.
3. Thome and Abreu. So far, these guys have barely hit anything. Thome has 1 homer and a .203 BA. Abreu also has 1 HR and a .262 BA. Both of these guys are notoriously slow starters, but really heat it up once the mercury rises. And, with either of these guys able to carry the team for a week at a time, look for some long winning streaks in May and June thanks to their bats. Some food for thought, they have averaged 73 HR per year since 2001; with 2 out of the way in April, that means 71 more long balls to go the rest of the year, or about 15 per month. That's some hittin'.
4. Pat the Bat. Wether it was Bowa, the hitting coaches, or Jobu, Pat Burrell finally looks comfortable at the plate again after a mystifying 2003 and 2004 where he struggled to even swing the bat. This year, Pat is hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and was rewarded with a great April line of 5 HR / 21 RBI / .305 BA. Keeping him in the 4th spot in the lineup to break up the left-handed bats of Thome and Abreu will go a long way to winning many more games. By the All-Star break, people should be saying "Abreu - Burrell - Thome, oh my".
5. Wagner's back. Ater a lost campaign in 2004, Billy "100 mph" Wagner is back and in charge of the 9th inning. While Worrell did a great job filling in last year, it really hurt the middle inning guys when they had to pick up the slack for Wagner's time out. With a full year of Wagner, the Phils won't be sweating the 9th anytime soon.
Let's give this team a little more time, some warmer weather and an apple a day to keep the doctor away, and there's no reason why they can't take command of the East and be back in first by the time the All Star break comes around. And, with the bargaining chips that Ed Wade holds this year, pretty much any need that arises late in the year can be filled. So let's not look at the glass as half empty and keep things positive as we head into May. When we get to the 40 game mark, as Manuel says, then we will know what we have.
So, here are 5 positive things to keep in mind and keep us sane for the next month of the season.
1. We have our health. So far, no major injuries have cropped up to bite the Phillies, always a good sign for a team that has playoff aspirations. Sure, there's been the recent back pain for Thome and Lofton's hamstring, and Burrell's groin, but nothing major, and that's a key after last year.
2. The top 2 starters. Last year it was the Mil's boys at the top of the rotation, and I don't thing we need to rehash that pain. This year it's a resurgent Lieber and a more mature Myers anchoring the staff. The good news is that Lieber is pitching as expected, keeping the ball down, winning 4 games already with a solid ERA of 3.03. A full year of these kind of performances will quickly put Millwood and Milton out of our minds. The more surprising (and pleasantly so) story is Brett Myers. For several years now, he has been heralded as the next coming of Curt Schilling and with his nasty stuff it seemed to be a realistic thought. After a poor showing in 2004, Myers has a microscopic 1.35 ERA and just under 1 baserunner allowed per inning, both incredible numbers after his 5.52 ERA last year and a 4.59 career mark. Even more encouraging are his strike out totals at just about 1 per inning, well up from his career marks, a great sign of things to come. This all bodes well for his progression to a top-of-the-line starter for the Phils.
3. Thome and Abreu. So far, these guys have barely hit anything. Thome has 1 homer and a .203 BA. Abreu also has 1 HR and a .262 BA. Both of these guys are notoriously slow starters, but really heat it up once the mercury rises. And, with either of these guys able to carry the team for a week at a time, look for some long winning streaks in May and June thanks to their bats. Some food for thought, they have averaged 73 HR per year since 2001; with 2 out of the way in April, that means 71 more long balls to go the rest of the year, or about 15 per month. That's some hittin'.
4. Pat the Bat. Wether it was Bowa, the hitting coaches, or Jobu, Pat Burrell finally looks comfortable at the plate again after a mystifying 2003 and 2004 where he struggled to even swing the bat. This year, Pat is hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and was rewarded with a great April line of 5 HR / 21 RBI / .305 BA. Keeping him in the 4th spot in the lineup to break up the left-handed bats of Thome and Abreu will go a long way to winning many more games. By the All-Star break, people should be saying "Abreu - Burrell - Thome, oh my".
5. Wagner's back. Ater a lost campaign in 2004, Billy "100 mph" Wagner is back and in charge of the 9th inning. While Worrell did a great job filling in last year, it really hurt the middle inning guys when they had to pick up the slack for Wagner's time out. With a full year of Wagner, the Phils won't be sweating the 9th anytime soon.
Let's give this team a little more time, some warmer weather and an apple a day to keep the doctor away, and there's no reason why they can't take command of the East and be back in first by the time the All Star break comes around. And, with the bargaining chips that Ed Wade holds this year, pretty much any need that arises late in the year can be filled. So let's not look at the glass as half empty and keep things positive as we head into May. When we get to the 40 game mark, as Manuel says, then we will know what we have.
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