If you pay attention to the general sports media, you wouldn't have much of a reason to believe the Phillies have a chance at the post season this year. All of the so-called experts believe that the off-season moves the Mets have made makes them the odds on favorite to win the N.L. East, or at least take the Wildcard. I have some specific comments about their team and where their flaws are, but will reserve them for a later posting. Everyone else picks the Braves to win the N.L. East, and while you can't blame the media for picking a team that has won the division 14 straight years, it shouldn't just be handed to them, especially when they are in semi-rebuilding mode.
If you take an objective look at the team the Phillies have put together for this season, any reasonable person would believe they are a legitimate contender for the post-season. So, on the eve of the eve of the season opening, I thought it would be good to point out the reasons why the Phillies should be getting more consideration.
1) Jimmy Rollins
Never underestimate the importance of a quality lead-off hitter. In the last few years, Rollins has finally figured out how important his role is on the team, and that translated to a 36 game hitting streak to end of the regular season last year. Quite literally, as Jimmy Rollins goes, so goes the Phillies. The table setter is quite possibly the most important spot in the lineup. Just think about all of those Braves teams that had Kenny Lofton (in his prime) and Rafael Furcal leading off. If Rollins can manage a .350 OBP, the Phillies should walk into the post-season.
Jimmy Rollins - .296 BA / 13 HR / 62 RBI / 38 SB / 116 R
While I am clearly a Phillies fan, I want you to know that any statistical projections come from my experience as a Fantasy Baseball manager. These stats come from an accumulation of several expert Fantasy Baseball sources. And, when it comes to projecting stats, Fantasy Baseball is the most un-biased place to look.
2) A full season of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard
Last year the Phillies started off slowly, and part of the reason was an injured Jim Thome and a platooning Chase Utley. Once Polanco was traded and Thome was placed on the DL, both Utley and Howard had a chance to flourish, and so did the Phillies playoff chances. With a full season of both these young power hitters playing, the Phillies will be better off than they were last year. Here are their projections for this year:
Chase Utley - .293 BA / 31 HR / 106 RBI / 17 SB
Ryan Howard - .279 BA / 37 HR / 105 RBI
3) We still have Abreu and Burrell
This Phillies lineup has the chance to be the best hitting team in the N.L. and probably on par with the Yankees, Red Sox or White Sox. I've already talked about Rollins, Utley and Howard as keys to the season, but let's not take for granted the other big bats in the order. Here are their statistical projections:
Bobby Abreu - .295 BA / 27 HR / 105 RBI / 28 SB
Pat Burrell - .276 BA / 30 HR / 108 RBI
As you can see, the Phillies project out to four 100 RBI guys in their lineup. How impressive a feat would this be. To begin with, no team had four 100 RBI guys last year. Only 2 teams managed three 100 RBI guys (Phillies included) and 3 others had two 100 RBI guys. Here's the list:
Phillies - Bobby Abreu (102), Chase Utley (105), and Pat Burrell (117)
New York Yankees - Alex Rodriguez (130), Gary Sheffield (123) and Hideki Matsui (116)
Boston - Manny Ramirez (144) and David Ortiz (148)
Texas - Alfonso Soriano (104) and Mark Texiera (144)
Florida - Miguel Cabrera (116) and Carlos Delgado (115)
4) Aaron Rowand
The addition of Rowand to the team has been much heralded as a guy who plays hard and has World Series experience. That's great and all, but what Rowand really brings to the table is a solid bat in the lineup and gold glove level defense in center field. Whether Rowand bats 2nd or 6th in the lineup doesn't really matter since he will produce runs either way. What really matters is his defense and what it will mean to the starting staff. Having a guy track down ball that would normally hit off the wall for a double will do wonders for a pitching staff's confidence, not to mention the number of runs he will save. For the record here are his projections and they aren't too shabby either:
Aaron Rowand - .281 BA / 20 HR / 77 RBI / 14 SB
5) We have options at Third Base
It's widely understood that the Phillies have one of the worst offensive 3rd basemen in the game with David Bell. He's a great clubhouse guy and all, but if he doesn't produce like he did in 2004, he will be on a short leash. Pat Gillick was savvy enough to go out and get Abraham Nunez and Alex Gonzalez. I've mentioned Gonzalez's stats before and his average year is about what Bell's career year equals. So, one way or another it seems the Phillies will get solid production from their 3rd basemen this year.
6) The Relief Staff
Yes, the Phillies lost one of the best closers in the game in Billy Wagner, but think back a moment to last year. Remember how Wagner folded in the face of back-to-back games with the Astros. Ok, maybe that isn't fair, he is one of the dominant closers and it isn't good news to loose him to a division rival. Remember back again to last year when the middle relievers couldn't hold a lead the first half of the year. Tim Worrell had personal issues, Terry Adams was horrible and Rheal Cormier couldn't get any right handers out and Ryan Madson even had a bit of a down year.
While Tom Gordon isn't at quite the level of Wagner, he is a solid replacement who should do well in the role of closer. What's more important are the other 6 guys in the bullpen. After last year, just about any collection of 6 relievers would be in better shape. And the Phillies have put together a solid collection of arms. Arthur Rhodes is one of the best setup men in the game. Fultz will be back and hopefully can build on his success from last year. Cormier can't be as bad as he was last year, in either case, he shouldn't be facing anything but lefties where he did have success. Ryan Franklin is now the 7th inning guy, and his stuff is pretty solid for that role, he should be every bit as effective as Madson was in the role.
The point here is that on the surface, the relief staff doesn't get fans all that excited, but when you look at them on the whole and compare them to last year, the Phillies appear much better off.
7) Strong Young Arms mixed with some Quality Veterans
The starting rotation may be the achilles heal of this year's team, but they may not be as bad as people make them out to be. First of all, the fences in Citizen's Bank Park have been moved back in left field, which should hold in more of those pop flies that found their way out of the park last year. While this is a benefit to any pitcher, it should help with the Phillies confidence in thowing all of their pitches.
Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are pretty much known quantities and can be counted on for solid innings that keep the Phillies in most of their games. Remember, the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup, so any game that is close is win-able for this team.
The rest of the staff is where fans could find a lot of excitement this year. Brett Myers came into his own last year and appears poised for a breakout season (if last year wasn't already that). People still compare him to Curt Schilling, and if he can pitch like Schilling did in his prime, the Phillies will be in great shape.
This brings up the back of the rotation. Most teams have a dependable, veteran arm with little upside and a rookie looking to make a mark in the back of their rotations. The Phillies have 2 young guns with a chance to be special in the back of their rotation. Ryan Madson had a great spring and has a great history of starting in the minors. If he can do it for a full year, he has a chance to be a special pitcher. I've already discussed Gavin Floyd's potential, and he is certainly a wildcard. If he pitches to his potential he is the ace of the staff, if he flames out then the Phillies have other options. Either way, the starting staff looks like all upside at this point.
8) Other Quick Points
While there is much to be optimistic about with this team, there are several other factors that could be good news for the Phillies this year, since this post is getting rather long, I'll just list them for you.
- Great team defense
- Top of the league in team speed
- Charlie Manuel has hopefully figured out the pieces
- A power hitting backup catcher and speedy outfielder making up a solid bench
- Great young pitching talent in the minors ready for the opportunity
- Randy Wolf's potential return in July
While it's easy for any team to make a case for winning their division, I think the Phillies have as strong a case as any team in the league. Now, let's go out and play ball...and stay positive Phillies fans.
31 March 2006
30 March 2006
Floyd Makes the Rotation
MLB.com is reporting that Gavin Floyd has been named the Phillies #5 starter. This is great news for Phillies fans as Floyd has long been considered a potential ace of the staff. After his setbacks last year, he has come through in a big way this spring and earned himself a shot at becoming that ace.
This leaves one open question for the Phillies, who lost their spot in the starting rotation and becomes the 7th inning guy? We know that Lieber, Myers and Lidle have been named the starting 3, so that leaves one of the Ryan's...Madson or Franklin.
With the success Madson has had in the bullpen the last couple of years, it would be an easy move to send him to the 'pen. However, with as good a spring that Floyd has had, Madson's has been even better, suggesting that he has earned a spot in the rotation as well. Manuel has stated that he wants the best players to go north with him, and given the spring stats, Madson is the best for the starting rotation.
This leaves Ryan Franklin as the most likely person to move to the 'pen. Interestingly enough, he was signed with the knowledge that he might pitch in relief. His brother (and agent) even included incentives for total number of appearances, suggesting that relief was a real possiblity. Add to this that Manuel is refusing to name the final 2 starters, but is also saying that he has definitely made up his mind. Franklin has been out of camp lately, so if you read between the lines, this likely means that Manuel wants to tell Franklin in person before telling the media.
Great news Phillies fans, our starting rotation may now be full of great potential. Madson already had nice upside, but not much was expected out of Franklin. With Floyd in the rotation, this could be a very exciting pitching staff. It's way too early to predict anything, but this staff definitely has the potential to be dominant if everything works out.
This leaves one open question for the Phillies, who lost their spot in the starting rotation and becomes the 7th inning guy? We know that Lieber, Myers and Lidle have been named the starting 3, so that leaves one of the Ryan's...Madson or Franklin.
With the success Madson has had in the bullpen the last couple of years, it would be an easy move to send him to the 'pen. However, with as good a spring that Floyd has had, Madson's has been even better, suggesting that he has earned a spot in the rotation as well. Manuel has stated that he wants the best players to go north with him, and given the spring stats, Madson is the best for the starting rotation.
This leaves Ryan Franklin as the most likely person to move to the 'pen. Interestingly enough, he was signed with the knowledge that he might pitch in relief. His brother (and agent) even included incentives for total number of appearances, suggesting that relief was a real possiblity. Add to this that Manuel is refusing to name the final 2 starters, but is also saying that he has definitely made up his mind. Franklin has been out of camp lately, so if you read between the lines, this likely means that Manuel wants to tell Franklin in person before telling the media.
Great news Phillies fans, our starting rotation may now be full of great potential. Madson already had nice upside, but not much was expected out of Franklin. With Floyd in the rotation, this could be a very exciting pitching staff. It's way too early to predict anything, but this staff definitely has the potential to be dominant if everything works out.
21 March 2006
Too Much Pitching?
As the old adage goes, "You can never have too much pitching". No one is going to accuse the Phillies of having the best pitching staff in baseball, the National League, or event the N.L. East. In fact, they probably have the 3rd best staff in the N.L. East. But is it possible they have assembled more major-league ready arms than any other team on the planet outside of Korea?
Consider this, we already know the starting rotation is set with:
Jon Lieber
Brett Meyers
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madson
Ryan Franklin
Baring anything unforseen, those 5 will break camp as the rotation. This means that last year's stand outs Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito are destined for a bus ticket to Scranton. Add to that the stellar spring that Gavin Floyd is having, and the likelihood that Ricardo Rodriguez will also have the same bus tickets, and the Red Barrons should be in great shape this season.
Gavin's Comeback
Speaking of Floyd, it's encouraging to see that he is trusting his stuff again and is making a concerted effort to stop overthinking every situation. This has paid off with a 3-0 spring training record and a 2.30 ERA. It looks like the "Future Ace" might have turned the corner and be back on track to reaching the big club.
Gavin is probably headed for triple-A to show that he can keep the success going for an extended period of time, but at the first sign of ineffectiveness from Franklin or Madson, or the first injury for any starter, Floyd could be the one called up. If he does get the call, let's hope he makes the most of his opportunity and supplants himself as a key member of the rotation.
Getting back on Topic
Continuing on the theme of great pitching prospects, the Phillies also have Cole Hamels, Giovani Gonzalez, Scott Mathieson and Daniel Haigwood. Most of these guys should be pitching for double-AA Reading this year.
Hamels has long been projected as a "Future Ace" and if it weren't for his many injuries, he would probably be a part of the Phillies rotation this year. His stuff is filthy and he has been complimented from the likes of Alex Rodriguez as one guy he wouldn't want to face again. With such high praise and obvious talent, if Hamels can just stay healthy a full year, he should quickly advance to the big club.
Gonzalez, one of the "Other Guys" in the Thome trade projects as a top-of-the-rotation type of starter, while Haigwood (the other "Other Guy") projects as a solid back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. If both of these guys make the big leagues in the next couple of years, the Thome trade could look like a steal of a deal for the Phillies.
And, let's not forget that Randy Wolf is recovering from Tommy John surgery and could play a part for the Phillies in the second-half of the year. While the current rotation is a solid group, the future looks very bright for the Phillies on the mound.
Crystal Ball
Taking a look into the future, just what might the Phillies staff look like? First, let's assume that Gillick isn't able to land that big name starter by next season, then assuming Lidle and Franklin aren't re-signed and Lieber decides to retire (ok, the crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, but let's assume all of this anyway). This leaves a potential rotation of:
Brett Meyers
Ryan Madson
Randy Wolf
Cole Hamels
Gavin Floyd
This of course if how the Phillies drew it up a couple of years ago, but it could happen sooner rather than later, and this would be the type of staff that can help a team win for a long time.
Random Thoughts
David Bell's back is continuing to hurt him, and I think most Phillies fans aren't all that concerned. If he isn't ready to go the first few weeks of the season, it could be interesting watching what Gonzalez and Nunez can do...Peter Bergeron was sent down today, so he won't be making the team. The slap-hitting, ex-Expo would have been one of the feel good stories of the year if he had made it, but the Phillies are looking for more of a power hitter off the bench. Maybe we will see him sometime during the year...Chris Coste (pronounced Coast) is making a strong case for making the team, and that would be an even better feel-good story of a 33 year old rookie. What's even more intriguing about Coste is the fact that he can fill in as a catcher if needed, which would free up Fasano as the power-hitting pinch hitter the Phillies are looking for.
Consider this, we already know the starting rotation is set with:
Jon Lieber
Brett Meyers
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madson
Ryan Franklin
Baring anything unforseen, those 5 will break camp as the rotation. This means that last year's stand outs Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito are destined for a bus ticket to Scranton. Add to that the stellar spring that Gavin Floyd is having, and the likelihood that Ricardo Rodriguez will also have the same bus tickets, and the Red Barrons should be in great shape this season.
Gavin's Comeback
Speaking of Floyd, it's encouraging to see that he is trusting his stuff again and is making a concerted effort to stop overthinking every situation. This has paid off with a 3-0 spring training record and a 2.30 ERA. It looks like the "Future Ace" might have turned the corner and be back on track to reaching the big club.
Gavin is probably headed for triple-A to show that he can keep the success going for an extended period of time, but at the first sign of ineffectiveness from Franklin or Madson, or the first injury for any starter, Floyd could be the one called up. If he does get the call, let's hope he makes the most of his opportunity and supplants himself as a key member of the rotation.
Getting back on Topic
Continuing on the theme of great pitching prospects, the Phillies also have Cole Hamels, Giovani Gonzalez, Scott Mathieson and Daniel Haigwood. Most of these guys should be pitching for double-AA Reading this year.
Hamels has long been projected as a "Future Ace" and if it weren't for his many injuries, he would probably be a part of the Phillies rotation this year. His stuff is filthy and he has been complimented from the likes of Alex Rodriguez as one guy he wouldn't want to face again. With such high praise and obvious talent, if Hamels can just stay healthy a full year, he should quickly advance to the big club.
Gonzalez, one of the "Other Guys" in the Thome trade projects as a top-of-the-rotation type of starter, while Haigwood (the other "Other Guy") projects as a solid back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. If both of these guys make the big leagues in the next couple of years, the Thome trade could look like a steal of a deal for the Phillies.
And, let's not forget that Randy Wolf is recovering from Tommy John surgery and could play a part for the Phillies in the second-half of the year. While the current rotation is a solid group, the future looks very bright for the Phillies on the mound.
Crystal Ball
Taking a look into the future, just what might the Phillies staff look like? First, let's assume that Gillick isn't able to land that big name starter by next season, then assuming Lidle and Franklin aren't re-signed and Lieber decides to retire (ok, the crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, but let's assume all of this anyway). This leaves a potential rotation of:
Brett Meyers
Ryan Madson
Randy Wolf
Cole Hamels
Gavin Floyd
This of course if how the Phillies drew it up a couple of years ago, but it could happen sooner rather than later, and this would be the type of staff that can help a team win for a long time.
Random Thoughts
David Bell's back is continuing to hurt him, and I think most Phillies fans aren't all that concerned. If he isn't ready to go the first few weeks of the season, it could be interesting watching what Gonzalez and Nunez can do...Peter Bergeron was sent down today, so he won't be making the team. The slap-hitting, ex-Expo would have been one of the feel good stories of the year if he had made it, but the Phillies are looking for more of a power hitter off the bench. Maybe we will see him sometime during the year...Chris Coste (pronounced Coast) is making a strong case for making the team, and that would be an even better feel-good story of a 33 year old rookie. What's even more intriguing about Coste is the fact that he can fill in as a catcher if needed, which would free up Fasano as the power-hitting pinch hitter the Phillies are looking for.
01 March 2006
Catching Up
Ok, I've got some catching up to do since my last blog. Sorry for those of you who have been checking in looking for some new information. With Spring Training well underway (games started today), the time for baseball discussion is back.
Couple of New Faces
Since the signing of Ryan Franklin there have been a couple of minor deals. I'm sure you've read enough about them already, but I felt the need to weigh in on them before moving on to more pressing questions like how the Phillies will do this year.
The Phillies made a deal to aquire Arthur Rhodes and then signed Alex S. Gonzalez to a one year contract.
Leading up to the signing of Rhodes, Gillick was really in the market for a top of the rotation starter to anchor the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the few guys that were available came at a premium, the kind of premium that a Bobby Abreu just didn't justify. So in the end, the strategy is to let Ryan Madson step into the rotation to see what he can do. Overall this is a sound strategy for the pitching staff, as we really need to see what Madson can do. If he struggles for a couple of months, well then we know he is cut out for the bullpen and that he can be successful there. This also opens the door for one of the myriad of young pitchers the Phillies seem to have now.
Back to the transactions, first Jason Michaels was traded to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes. Overall this is a solid deal. It's tough to see Michaels go, but he was really a spare part as the 4th outfielder on this team, and didn't figure to get all that many at-bats with Aaron Rowand in town. Shane Victorino also looks ready to go to fill Michaels role and projects to some pretty nice numbers. Now to Rhodes.
Arthur Rhodes has built a career on being one of the best setup guys in baseball. From a Fantasy Baseball perspective, in the late 90s and early 00s, Rhodes was always the first middle reliever off the boards thanks to his consistent and quality stats. Once Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene with his 100 strike outs, Rhodes took a back seat, but was still consider a quality option.
Rhodes best seasons were in Seattle in 2001 and 2002 where he put up 1.72 and 2.33 ERA's and 83 and 81 Ks respectively. Those years prompted a move to closing for Rhodes, who was signed by Oakland in 2004 to be their guy. Unfortunately he didn't have the makeup for closing as the Athletics quickly found out in when he put up a gastly 5.12 ERA and blew 5 of his 14 save opportunities and lost the ability to strike hitters out. After that experiment Rhodes became a forgotten pitcher.
Enter Cleveland last year who took a shot on Rhodes and decided to keep him around as a setup man. Rhodes thrived without the spotlight on him and posted a 2.08 ERA and raised his K rate to 9 per 9 innings. You can write 2004 off when considering his stats. The Phillies should expect a similar season to last, as long as Manual resists the temptation to try him out in the closer's role. He can close on occasion, but only when the situation warrants, not as the "go to guy".
About Gonzalez
Being from Chicago, I know all about this Alex Gonzalez, vs. the other Alex Gonzalez who played several years for the Marlins and doesn't have an "S" for a middle initial. On a brisk October eve in 2003, the Cubs had Prior on the mound and were not so many outs away from advancing to the World Series, the first in nearly 100 years, and with the way Prior was pitching they looked dialed in. That's when The Curse struck. You all remember Steve Bartman knocking the ball away from Moises Alou, but you may not remember what happened next. The Bartman ball didn't cause any harm, since it was ruled foul, however the lazy groundball that was hit towards Gonzalez at short is where the game started to unravel. It's not like the ball was hit all that hard, it even had a nice easy hop up to Gonzalez's glove, however The Curse grabbed his glove and made him muff the play, opening the gates to the tying runs. For a guy with a career .973 fielding percentage, that was as easy a play as it gets. Way easier than the Dave Kingman play, but this is the Cubs and they are cursed.
As for Gonzalez, well he is actually a pretty solid hitter, who was moved to third base last year, making this signing quite interesting.
Consider these numbers.
18 HR
66 RBI
.266 BA
These are Gonzalez's average numbers from 2000-2003. The last time he was a full-time player. He was injured and split time between 3 teams in 2004, and only got 349 at bats last year. Project last years numbers out and he would have had 15 HR, 60 RBI and he did hit .269, so right on his average. What's my point you ask? These numbers aren't very exciting to think about you say?
Well, consider David Bell's production from 2004 when he had a career year.
18 HR
77 RBI
.291 BA
Yep, a little better than Gonzalez's average year, but not that much better, and we all know how Bell did in 2003 and in 2005, the numbers are too ugly to even post here. The point is that Gonzalez will put up the same offensive numbers as Bell when Bell is playing right. Hearing that Bell is still having back problems doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his play.
The signing of Gonzalez was a shrewd and brilliant move by Gillick. Here is a guy that can take over the everyday duties at 3rd if Bell gets injured or doesn't peform, and for 3.5 Million less. And, by the way, his fielding percentage was .938 at 3rd last year vs. Bell's .951, so an argument could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that this was the first year Gonzalez played the position, he can only get better, and he wouldn't have to be all that much better to catch up to .951. Gonzalez's career fielding percentage is .973 vs. Bell's .966.
Baring injury, Bell will be the opening-day 3rd baseman, but if he doesn't hit well, look for a move to Gonzalez. Bell does crush left-handed pitching, so a platoon wouldn't be all that bad an idea, ala Lofton and Michaels in center last year. And of course there is Abraham Nunez who is a solid utility infielder who can also play 3rd, but he doesn't project to the numbers that Gonzalez or Bell should put up.
Random Thoughts
The small media frenzy around Abreu's potential trade situation was quite silly. Bobby is a professional and goes about his business in a very professional manner, all this stuff about him really covering up his true feelings is just weird to hear. Whether he is or isn't, does anyone believe he's so emotional about this he can't play up to his standards. C'mon, there's no crying in baseball! Go get 'em Bobby, I'm glad your still around...Speaking of Abreu, does anyone else think he should be batting second in the order instead of Rowand? The top of the order's job is to get on base, and Abreu is much better at finding first than Rowand. With the bats of Utley, Howard and Burrell, you don't really need Bobby in the middle of the order. Sure he is naturally a number 3 hitter, but with his speed and OBP, he could score 150 runs...The news of Utley dedicating himself to improving over the off-season has to be exciting for Phillies fans. This is a guy who already projects to be the best hitting second baseman in the league, yes better than Kent. This assumes Soriano does play the outfield or gets traded to the Red Sox, though he is only better in Fantasy terms since Soriano doesn't really get on base enough and strikes out a ton. Go "Dirtball", or as I like to think of him the Lenny Dykstra of the infield...Speaking of Lenny Dykstra, I like the comparisons of his all-out style of play to that of Aaron Rowand. A lineup with two Dykstras can't loose.
Couple of New Faces
Since the signing of Ryan Franklin there have been a couple of minor deals. I'm sure you've read enough about them already, but I felt the need to weigh in on them before moving on to more pressing questions like how the Phillies will do this year.
The Phillies made a deal to aquire Arthur Rhodes and then signed Alex S. Gonzalez to a one year contract.
Leading up to the signing of Rhodes, Gillick was really in the market for a top of the rotation starter to anchor the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the few guys that were available came at a premium, the kind of premium that a Bobby Abreu just didn't justify. So in the end, the strategy is to let Ryan Madson step into the rotation to see what he can do. Overall this is a sound strategy for the pitching staff, as we really need to see what Madson can do. If he struggles for a couple of months, well then we know he is cut out for the bullpen and that he can be successful there. This also opens the door for one of the myriad of young pitchers the Phillies seem to have now.
Back to the transactions, first Jason Michaels was traded to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes. Overall this is a solid deal. It's tough to see Michaels go, but he was really a spare part as the 4th outfielder on this team, and didn't figure to get all that many at-bats with Aaron Rowand in town. Shane Victorino also looks ready to go to fill Michaels role and projects to some pretty nice numbers. Now to Rhodes.
Arthur Rhodes has built a career on being one of the best setup guys in baseball. From a Fantasy Baseball perspective, in the late 90s and early 00s, Rhodes was always the first middle reliever off the boards thanks to his consistent and quality stats. Once Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene with his 100 strike outs, Rhodes took a back seat, but was still consider a quality option.
Rhodes best seasons were in Seattle in 2001 and 2002 where he put up 1.72 and 2.33 ERA's and 83 and 81 Ks respectively. Those years prompted a move to closing for Rhodes, who was signed by Oakland in 2004 to be their guy. Unfortunately he didn't have the makeup for closing as the Athletics quickly found out in when he put up a gastly 5.12 ERA and blew 5 of his 14 save opportunities and lost the ability to strike hitters out. After that experiment Rhodes became a forgotten pitcher.
Enter Cleveland last year who took a shot on Rhodes and decided to keep him around as a setup man. Rhodes thrived without the spotlight on him and posted a 2.08 ERA and raised his K rate to 9 per 9 innings. You can write 2004 off when considering his stats. The Phillies should expect a similar season to last, as long as Manual resists the temptation to try him out in the closer's role. He can close on occasion, but only when the situation warrants, not as the "go to guy".
About Gonzalez
Being from Chicago, I know all about this Alex Gonzalez, vs. the other Alex Gonzalez who played several years for the Marlins and doesn't have an "S" for a middle initial. On a brisk October eve in 2003, the Cubs had Prior on the mound and were not so many outs away from advancing to the World Series, the first in nearly 100 years, and with the way Prior was pitching they looked dialed in. That's when The Curse struck. You all remember Steve Bartman knocking the ball away from Moises Alou, but you may not remember what happened next. The Bartman ball didn't cause any harm, since it was ruled foul, however the lazy groundball that was hit towards Gonzalez at short is where the game started to unravel. It's not like the ball was hit all that hard, it even had a nice easy hop up to Gonzalez's glove, however The Curse grabbed his glove and made him muff the play, opening the gates to the tying runs. For a guy with a career .973 fielding percentage, that was as easy a play as it gets. Way easier than the Dave Kingman play, but this is the Cubs and they are cursed.
As for Gonzalez, well he is actually a pretty solid hitter, who was moved to third base last year, making this signing quite interesting.
Consider these numbers.
18 HR
66 RBI
.266 BA
These are Gonzalez's average numbers from 2000-2003. The last time he was a full-time player. He was injured and split time between 3 teams in 2004, and only got 349 at bats last year. Project last years numbers out and he would have had 15 HR, 60 RBI and he did hit .269, so right on his average. What's my point you ask? These numbers aren't very exciting to think about you say?
Well, consider David Bell's production from 2004 when he had a career year.
18 HR
77 RBI
.291 BA
Yep, a little better than Gonzalez's average year, but not that much better, and we all know how Bell did in 2003 and in 2005, the numbers are too ugly to even post here. The point is that Gonzalez will put up the same offensive numbers as Bell when Bell is playing right. Hearing that Bell is still having back problems doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his play.
The signing of Gonzalez was a shrewd and brilliant move by Gillick. Here is a guy that can take over the everyday duties at 3rd if Bell gets injured or doesn't peform, and for 3.5 Million less. And, by the way, his fielding percentage was .938 at 3rd last year vs. Bell's .951, so an argument could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that this was the first year Gonzalez played the position, he can only get better, and he wouldn't have to be all that much better to catch up to .951. Gonzalez's career fielding percentage is .973 vs. Bell's .966.
Baring injury, Bell will be the opening-day 3rd baseman, but if he doesn't hit well, look for a move to Gonzalez. Bell does crush left-handed pitching, so a platoon wouldn't be all that bad an idea, ala Lofton and Michaels in center last year. And of course there is Abraham Nunez who is a solid utility infielder who can also play 3rd, but he doesn't project to the numbers that Gonzalez or Bell should put up.
Random Thoughts
The small media frenzy around Abreu's potential trade situation was quite silly. Bobby is a professional and goes about his business in a very professional manner, all this stuff about him really covering up his true feelings is just weird to hear. Whether he is or isn't, does anyone believe he's so emotional about this he can't play up to his standards. C'mon, there's no crying in baseball! Go get 'em Bobby, I'm glad your still around...Speaking of Abreu, does anyone else think he should be batting second in the order instead of Rowand? The top of the order's job is to get on base, and Abreu is much better at finding first than Rowand. With the bats of Utley, Howard and Burrell, you don't really need Bobby in the middle of the order. Sure he is naturally a number 3 hitter, but with his speed and OBP, he could score 150 runs...The news of Utley dedicating himself to improving over the off-season has to be exciting for Phillies fans. This is a guy who already projects to be the best hitting second baseman in the league, yes better than Kent. This assumes Soriano does play the outfield or gets traded to the Red Sox, though he is only better in Fantasy terms since Soriano doesn't really get on base enough and strikes out a ton. Go "Dirtball", or as I like to think of him the Lenny Dykstra of the infield...Speaking of Lenny Dykstra, I like the comparisons of his all-out style of play to that of Aaron Rowand. A lineup with two Dykstras can't loose.
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