We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
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