Handicapping the Milwaukee Brewers

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.

Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July

And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague

And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games

All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.

Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.

The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.

The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.

One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.

So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.

The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?

The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.