If you pay attention to the general sports media, you wouldn't have much of a reason to believe the Phillies have a chance at the post season this year. All of the so-called experts believe that the off-season moves the Mets have made makes them the odds on favorite to win the N.L. East, or at least take the Wildcard. I have some specific comments about their team and where their flaws are, but will reserve them for a later posting. Everyone else picks the Braves to win the N.L. East, and while you can't blame the media for picking a team that has won the division 14 straight years, it shouldn't just be handed to them, especially when they are in semi-rebuilding mode.
If you take an objective look at the team the Phillies have put together for this season, any reasonable person would believe they are a legitimate contender for the post-season. So, on the eve of the eve of the season opening, I thought it would be good to point out the reasons why the Phillies should be getting more consideration.
1) Jimmy Rollins
Never underestimate the importance of a quality lead-off hitter. In the last few years, Rollins has finally figured out how important his role is on the team, and that translated to a 36 game hitting streak to end of the regular season last year. Quite literally, as Jimmy Rollins goes, so goes the Phillies. The table setter is quite possibly the most important spot in the lineup. Just think about all of those Braves teams that had Kenny Lofton (in his prime) and Rafael Furcal leading off. If Rollins can manage a .350 OBP, the Phillies should walk into the post-season.
Jimmy Rollins - .296 BA / 13 HR / 62 RBI / 38 SB / 116 R
While I am clearly a Phillies fan, I want you to know that any statistical projections come from my experience as a Fantasy Baseball manager. These stats come from an accumulation of several expert Fantasy Baseball sources. And, when it comes to projecting stats, Fantasy Baseball is the most un-biased place to look.
2) A full season of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard
Last year the Phillies started off slowly, and part of the reason was an injured Jim Thome and a platooning Chase Utley. Once Polanco was traded and Thome was placed on the DL, both Utley and Howard had a chance to flourish, and so did the Phillies playoff chances. With a full season of both these young power hitters playing, the Phillies will be better off than they were last year. Here are their projections for this year:
Chase Utley - .293 BA / 31 HR / 106 RBI / 17 SB
Ryan Howard - .279 BA / 37 HR / 105 RBI
3) We still have Abreu and Burrell
This Phillies lineup has the chance to be the best hitting team in the N.L. and probably on par with the Yankees, Red Sox or White Sox. I've already talked about Rollins, Utley and Howard as keys to the season, but let's not take for granted the other big bats in the order. Here are their statistical projections:
Bobby Abreu - .295 BA / 27 HR / 105 RBI / 28 SB
Pat Burrell - .276 BA / 30 HR / 108 RBI
As you can see, the Phillies project out to four 100 RBI guys in their lineup. How impressive a feat would this be. To begin with, no team had four 100 RBI guys last year. Only 2 teams managed three 100 RBI guys (Phillies included) and 3 others had two 100 RBI guys. Here's the list:
Phillies - Bobby Abreu (102), Chase Utley (105), and Pat Burrell (117)
New York Yankees - Alex Rodriguez (130), Gary Sheffield (123) and Hideki Matsui (116)
Boston - Manny Ramirez (144) and David Ortiz (148)
Texas - Alfonso Soriano (104) and Mark Texiera (144)
Florida - Miguel Cabrera (116) and Carlos Delgado (115)
4) Aaron Rowand
The addition of Rowand to the team has been much heralded as a guy who plays hard and has World Series experience. That's great and all, but what Rowand really brings to the table is a solid bat in the lineup and gold glove level defense in center field. Whether Rowand bats 2nd or 6th in the lineup doesn't really matter since he will produce runs either way. What really matters is his defense and what it will mean to the starting staff. Having a guy track down ball that would normally hit off the wall for a double will do wonders for a pitching staff's confidence, not to mention the number of runs he will save. For the record here are his projections and they aren't too shabby either:
Aaron Rowand - .281 BA / 20 HR / 77 RBI / 14 SB
5) We have options at Third Base
It's widely understood that the Phillies have one of the worst offensive 3rd basemen in the game with David Bell. He's a great clubhouse guy and all, but if he doesn't produce like he did in 2004, he will be on a short leash. Pat Gillick was savvy enough to go out and get Abraham Nunez and Alex Gonzalez. I've mentioned Gonzalez's stats before and his average year is about what Bell's career year equals. So, one way or another it seems the Phillies will get solid production from their 3rd basemen this year.
6) The Relief Staff
Yes, the Phillies lost one of the best closers in the game in Billy Wagner, but think back a moment to last year. Remember how Wagner folded in the face of back-to-back games with the Astros. Ok, maybe that isn't fair, he is one of the dominant closers and it isn't good news to loose him to a division rival. Remember back again to last year when the middle relievers couldn't hold a lead the first half of the year. Tim Worrell had personal issues, Terry Adams was horrible and Rheal Cormier couldn't get any right handers out and Ryan Madson even had a bit of a down year.
While Tom Gordon isn't at quite the level of Wagner, he is a solid replacement who should do well in the role of closer. What's more important are the other 6 guys in the bullpen. After last year, just about any collection of 6 relievers would be in better shape. And the Phillies have put together a solid collection of arms. Arthur Rhodes is one of the best setup men in the game. Fultz will be back and hopefully can build on his success from last year. Cormier can't be as bad as he was last year, in either case, he shouldn't be facing anything but lefties where he did have success. Ryan Franklin is now the 7th inning guy, and his stuff is pretty solid for that role, he should be every bit as effective as Madson was in the role.
The point here is that on the surface, the relief staff doesn't get fans all that excited, but when you look at them on the whole and compare them to last year, the Phillies appear much better off.
7) Strong Young Arms mixed with some Quality Veterans
The starting rotation may be the achilles heal of this year's team, but they may not be as bad as people make them out to be. First of all, the fences in Citizen's Bank Park have been moved back in left field, which should hold in more of those pop flies that found their way out of the park last year. While this is a benefit to any pitcher, it should help with the Phillies confidence in thowing all of their pitches.
Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are pretty much known quantities and can be counted on for solid innings that keep the Phillies in most of their games. Remember, the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup, so any game that is close is win-able for this team.
The rest of the staff is where fans could find a lot of excitement this year. Brett Myers came into his own last year and appears poised for a breakout season (if last year wasn't already that). People still compare him to Curt Schilling, and if he can pitch like Schilling did in his prime, the Phillies will be in great shape.
This brings up the back of the rotation. Most teams have a dependable, veteran arm with little upside and a rookie looking to make a mark in the back of their rotations. The Phillies have 2 young guns with a chance to be special in the back of their rotation. Ryan Madson had a great spring and has a great history of starting in the minors. If he can do it for a full year, he has a chance to be a special pitcher. I've already discussed Gavin Floyd's potential, and he is certainly a wildcard. If he pitches to his potential he is the ace of the staff, if he flames out then the Phillies have other options. Either way, the starting staff looks like all upside at this point.
8) Other Quick Points
While there is much to be optimistic about with this team, there are several other factors that could be good news for the Phillies this year, since this post is getting rather long, I'll just list them for you.
- Great team defense
- Top of the league in team speed
- Charlie Manuel has hopefully figured out the pieces
- A power hitting backup catcher and speedy outfielder making up a solid bench
- Great young pitching talent in the minors ready for the opportunity
- Randy Wolf's potential return in July
While it's easy for any team to make a case for winning their division, I think the Phillies have as strong a case as any team in the league. Now, let's go out and play ball...and stay positive Phillies fans.
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