Catching Up

Ok, I've got some catching up to do since my last blog. Sorry for those of you who have been checking in looking for some new information. With Spring Training well underway (games started today), the time for baseball discussion is back.


Couple of New Faces
Since the signing of Ryan Franklin there have been a couple of minor deals. I'm sure you've read enough about them already, but I felt the need to weigh in on them before moving on to more pressing questions like how the Phillies will do this year.

The Phillies made a deal to aquire Arthur Rhodes and then signed Alex S. Gonzalez to a one year contract.

Leading up to the signing of Rhodes, Gillick was really in the market for a top of the rotation starter to anchor the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the few guys that were available came at a premium, the kind of premium that a Bobby Abreu just didn't justify. So in the end, the strategy is to let Ryan Madson step into the rotation to see what he can do. Overall this is a sound strategy for the pitching staff, as we really need to see what Madson can do. If he struggles for a couple of months, well then we know he is cut out for the bullpen and that he can be successful there. This also opens the door for one of the myriad of young pitchers the Phillies seem to have now.

Back to the transactions, first Jason Michaels was traded to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes. Overall this is a solid deal. It's tough to see Michaels go, but he was really a spare part as the 4th outfielder on this team, and didn't figure to get all that many at-bats with Aaron Rowand in town. Shane Victorino also looks ready to go to fill Michaels role and projects to some pretty nice numbers. Now to Rhodes.

Arthur Rhodes has built a career on being one of the best setup guys in baseball. From a Fantasy Baseball perspective, in the late 90s and early 00s, Rhodes was always the first middle reliever off the boards thanks to his consistent and quality stats. Once Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene with his 100 strike outs, Rhodes took a back seat, but was still consider a quality option.

Rhodes best seasons were in Seattle in 2001 and 2002 where he put up 1.72 and 2.33 ERA's and 83 and 81 Ks respectively. Those years prompted a move to closing for Rhodes, who was signed by Oakland in 2004 to be their guy. Unfortunately he didn't have the makeup for closing as the Athletics quickly found out in when he put up a gastly 5.12 ERA and blew 5 of his 14 save opportunities and lost the ability to strike hitters out. After that experiment Rhodes became a forgotten pitcher.

Enter Cleveland last year who took a shot on Rhodes and decided to keep him around as a setup man. Rhodes thrived without the spotlight on him and posted a 2.08 ERA and raised his K rate to 9 per 9 innings. You can write 2004 off when considering his stats. The Phillies should expect a similar season to last, as long as Manual resists the temptation to try him out in the closer's role. He can close on occasion, but only when the situation warrants, not as the "go to guy".


About Gonzalez
Being from Chicago, I know all about this Alex Gonzalez, vs. the other Alex Gonzalez who played several years for the Marlins and doesn't have an "S" for a middle initial. On a brisk October eve in 2003, the Cubs had Prior on the mound and were not so many outs away from advancing to the World Series, the first in nearly 100 years, and with the way Prior was pitching they looked dialed in. That's when The Curse struck. You all remember Steve Bartman knocking the ball away from Moises Alou, but you may not remember what happened next. The Bartman ball didn't cause any harm, since it was ruled foul, however the lazy groundball that was hit towards Gonzalez at short is where the game started to unravel. It's not like the ball was hit all that hard, it even had a nice easy hop up to Gonzalez's glove, however The Curse grabbed his glove and made him muff the play, opening the gates to the tying runs. For a guy with a career .973 fielding percentage, that was as easy a play as it gets. Way easier than the Dave Kingman play, but this is the Cubs and they are cursed.

As for Gonzalez, well he is actually a pretty solid hitter, who was moved to third base last year, making this signing quite interesting.

Consider these numbers.

18 HR
66 RBI
.266 BA

These are Gonzalez's average numbers from 2000-2003. The last time he was a full-time player. He was injured and split time between 3 teams in 2004, and only got 349 at bats last year. Project last years numbers out and he would have had 15 HR, 60 RBI and he did hit .269, so right on his average. What's my point you ask? These numbers aren't very exciting to think about you say?

Well, consider David Bell's production from 2004 when he had a career year.

18 HR
77 RBI
.291 BA

Yep, a little better than Gonzalez's average year, but not that much better, and we all know how Bell did in 2003 and in 2005, the numbers are too ugly to even post here. The point is that Gonzalez will put up the same offensive numbers as Bell when Bell is playing right. Hearing that Bell is still having back problems doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his play.

The signing of Gonzalez was a shrewd and brilliant move by Gillick. Here is a guy that can take over the everyday duties at 3rd if Bell gets injured or doesn't peform, and for 3.5 Million less. And, by the way, his fielding percentage was .938 at 3rd last year vs. Bell's .951, so an argument could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that this was the first year Gonzalez played the position, he can only get better, and he wouldn't have to be all that much better to catch up to .951. Gonzalez's career fielding percentage is .973 vs. Bell's .966.

Baring injury, Bell will be the opening-day 3rd baseman, but if he doesn't hit well, look for a move to Gonzalez. Bell does crush left-handed pitching, so a platoon wouldn't be all that bad an idea, ala Lofton and Michaels in center last year. And of course there is Abraham Nunez who is a solid utility infielder who can also play 3rd, but he doesn't project to the numbers that Gonzalez or Bell should put up.


Random Thoughts
The small media frenzy around Abreu's potential trade situation was quite silly. Bobby is a professional and goes about his business in a very professional manner, all this stuff about him really covering up his true feelings is just weird to hear. Whether he is or isn't, does anyone believe he's so emotional about this he can't play up to his standards. C'mon, there's no crying in baseball! Go get 'em Bobby, I'm glad your still around...Speaking of Abreu, does anyone else think he should be batting second in the order instead of Rowand? The top of the order's job is to get on base, and Abreu is much better at finding first than Rowand. With the bats of Utley, Howard and Burrell, you don't really need Bobby in the middle of the order. Sure he is naturally a number 3 hitter, but with his speed and OBP, he could score 150 runs...The news of Utley dedicating himself to improving over the off-season has to be exciting for Phillies fans. This is a guy who already projects to be the best hitting second baseman in the league, yes better than Kent. This assumes Soriano does play the outfield or gets traded to the Red Sox, though he is only better in Fantasy terms since Soriano doesn't really get on base enough and strikes out a ton. Go "Dirtball", or as I like to think of him the Lenny Dykstra of the infield...Speaking of Lenny Dykstra, I like the comparisons of his all-out style of play to that of Aaron Rowand. A lineup with two Dykstras can't loose.