The Phillies came to terms with Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson today avoiding arbitration hearings with the pair of right-handers. That got me thinking about the Phillies bullpen, and you know what? They look pretty darned good on paper. When did this happen? Especially after last year's abomination in the first half.
It started with the trade for Lidge and then re-signing Romero and then bringing in Chad Durbin. Aside from the Lidge deal (who is replacing Myers in the 'pen) it didn't seem like much was done. Let's run down the pen and see where the Phillies stand.
Closer - Brad Lidge
The guy has gotten a bad rap since serving up the Pujols game winner a couple years ago, and fantasy baseball players really noticed the problems with Lidge moving in-out-back in-then out again-then into the closers role for Houston since that blast. That hurt fantasy owners in 2006 and I should know I was one of his owners drafting a closer way to high (never draft a closer in the early rounds, but that's another topic). Still with the rough 2006, Lidge compiled 104 Ks, one of the few relievers in the game to accomplish that. Last year, where Lidge "struggled" he still posted a 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .220 BAA, all very close to his career averages.
Setup Man - Tom Gordon
Yes he struggled last year opening the season, but he was clearly pitching injured and tried to pitch through it, which never seems to work. You can almost pick out the pitchers these days throwing through injuries. They are usually way off their career numbers. Gordon was quite good down the stretch last year after his injury problems were behind him, so it's reasonable to assume he will pitch more like the 2006 and second half of 2007 models than the first half of 2007 model.
7th Inning Guy - Ryan Madson
Madson was kind of forgotten about last year, but posted a very strong season before going down with an injury, posting a 3.05 ERA. Seeing that Madson had signed reminded me how important he was to the Phillies bullpen the past few years, so I looked up his numbers and if you look at his career stats out of the pen (forget about those starts in 2006), you find a 3.48 ERA, which is fabulous for a 7th inning guy who has mostly been forgotten about. Assuming he stays healthy, Madson will be a key to the success of the bullpen.
Lefty Specialist - JC Romero
I still can't believe the Red Sox cast this guy off. Don't you think they wished they had stuck with Romero and ignored Eric Gagne? There's no doubt who was better the second half of last year. Romero has definitely had a checkered career with amazing years like 2002's 1.89 ERA surrounded by 6.23 (2001) and 5.00 (2003). It's unlikely he will duplicate his 2007 success with the Phillies, but if he is limited to left-handed situations, he should be very good. Career line vs. lefties 1.26 WHIP, .226 BAA. Career line vs. righties 1.65 WHIP, .271 BAA.
Swingman - Chad Durbin
We talked about Durbin in a past post, not the most exciting guy, but he is really being called upon to be the long man out of the pen and for the occasional spot start. If he performs like last year, he will get more exposure, but if not, he will chew up some innings where the Phillies are either way ahead or way behind. Good for saving the quality arms some mileage.
2008 Projections
Lidge - 3.30 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .215 BAA / 100 K / 35 SV
Gordon - 3.40 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .235 BAA / 65 K
Romero - 3.50 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .230 BAA / 55 K
Madson - 3.20 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .235 BAA / 70 K
Amazingly similar stats across the board, it would be interesting to see 4 pitches that close to each other in stats, essentially that would mean it didn't matter who was on the mound, you could expect the same result.
Now if the Phillies can just take a chance on a guy like Akinori Otsuka. Yes an injury risk, but why not take the shot with an incentive laden contract. If it works out, the Phillies could actually have one of the better relief staffs around. Who would have thought that last year.
One last thought, Octavio Dotel is still available and the Phillies appear to have cash available, when he doesn't close he is one of the best relievers in the game, as a closer he is league average. He would cost closer money $5-6M and may demand a closer role, but maybe he is interested in winning too, just a though.
4 comments:
Great Post, a lot of injury and bounce back issues, and Romero reverting to norm issues with those 4 top guys.
Durbin should be fine as the swing man long reliever.
Sadly on
Jan 10th: Free agent Akinori Otsuka will undergo elbow surgery Wednesday, he reported on his blog.
Jan 18th: The White Sox have agreed to terms with Octavio Dotel on a two-year contract worth $11 million, according to Impacto Deportivo. Pretty good for someone as fragile as glass who has not pitched more than 32 innings since 2004.
Thanks for the update on Otsuka, had missed that one.
Bummer on Dotel, but it was very unlikely he would sign with Philly, and $11M for 2 years is about right. Though I would be leery of guaranteeing that much money for such a health risk. Surprised he got more than a 1 year deal.
I agree that the bullpen doesn't look/sound as bad as Phans are making it out to be, but some of the lesser pitchers like Condrey, Youman, Rosario, and others really worry me because there will be times when we need to count on them and counting on them is scary.
Depth is the key. Can Condrey, Youman and Rosario step up and handle some extra pressure.
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