The first month of baseball is over and the Phils are 10-14, in last place and 5 games behind the East leading Marlins. (At least we finally beat the fish to start off May) So, how is the team doing with 24 games under their belt in 2005? Many might say horrific, terrible, dem bums, or something of that sort, and who could blame them for a last place April showing. But, why not keep our heads up and look at the glass as half full, especially with 5 months of baseball left. After all, this same Phillies club had a pitiful April in 2004 and managed to run up a 3 game lead on the division just before the All Star break, so why can't that happen again? And, this time maybe the pitching staff will stay healthy and the team can avoid the disastrous slide of 2004's second season.
So, here are 5 positive things to keep in mind and keep us sane for the next month of the season.
1. We have our health. So far, no major injuries have cropped up to bite the Phillies, always a good sign for a team that has playoff aspirations. Sure, there's been the recent back pain for Thome and Lofton's hamstring, and Burrell's groin, but nothing major, and that's a key after last year.
2. The top 2 starters. Last year it was the Mil's boys at the top of the rotation, and I don't thing we need to rehash that pain. This year it's a resurgent Lieber and a more mature Myers anchoring the staff. The good news is that Lieber is pitching as expected, keeping the ball down, winning 4 games already with a solid ERA of 3.03. A full year of these kind of performances will quickly put Millwood and Milton out of our minds. The more surprising (and pleasantly so) story is Brett Myers. For several years now, he has been heralded as the next coming of Curt Schilling and with his nasty stuff it seemed to be a realistic thought. After a poor showing in 2004, Myers has a microscopic 1.35 ERA and just under 1 baserunner allowed per inning, both incredible numbers after his 5.52 ERA last year and a 4.59 career mark. Even more encouraging are his strike out totals at just about 1 per inning, well up from his career marks, a great sign of things to come. This all bodes well for his progression to a top-of-the-line starter for the Phils.
3. Thome and Abreu. So far, these guys have barely hit anything. Thome has 1 homer and a .203 BA. Abreu also has 1 HR and a .262 BA. Both of these guys are notoriously slow starters, but really heat it up once the mercury rises. And, with either of these guys able to carry the team for a week at a time, look for some long winning streaks in May and June thanks to their bats. Some food for thought, they have averaged 73 HR per year since 2001; with 2 out of the way in April, that means 71 more long balls to go the rest of the year, or about 15 per month. That's some hittin'.
4. Pat the Bat. Wether it was Bowa, the hitting coaches, or Jobu, Pat Burrell finally looks comfortable at the plate again after a mystifying 2003 and 2004 where he struggled to even swing the bat. This year, Pat is hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and was rewarded with a great April line of 5 HR / 21 RBI / .305 BA. Keeping him in the 4th spot in the lineup to break up the left-handed bats of Thome and Abreu will go a long way to winning many more games. By the All-Star break, people should be saying "Abreu - Burrell - Thome, oh my".
5. Wagner's back. Ater a lost campaign in 2004, Billy "100 mph" Wagner is back and in charge of the 9th inning. While Worrell did a great job filling in last year, it really hurt the middle inning guys when they had to pick up the slack for Wagner's time out. With a full year of Wagner, the Phils won't be sweating the 9th anytime soon.
Let's give this team a little more time, some warmer weather and an apple a day to keep the doctor away, and there's no reason why they can't take command of the East and be back in first by the time the All Star break comes around. And, with the bargaining chips that Ed Wade holds this year, pretty much any need that arises late in the year can be filled. So let's not look at the glass as half empty and keep things positive as we head into May. When we get to the 40 game mark, as Manuel says, then we will know what we have.
2 comments:
Don't want to burst your bubble of optimism but mine burst when I read Gammon's latest on ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2051224). In it he notes that since 1976, 36 teams began May 1, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .44. Only TWO, I repeat, only "two", teams made the playoffs. We don't need to wait for the 40-game mark to know what we have. We already know. This Phils team is an underacheiving team that fails under adversity and the slightest bit of pressure. Another disappointing summer coming up... What a shame. :-(
Hadn't seen the Gammons article yet, but read a similar article last year when the Phillies stumbled in April, then ran out to a 3 game lead running up to the All-Star break, so not all is lost yet. Though I will admit as soon as the Phillies started out 1-9 last year, I told everyone that was it, only to hear, it's too early in the season. And, of course that made all of the difference by the end of the year.
But, this year, I'm maintaining the glass is half-full optimism. You almost have to in able to continue enjoying the season. Really, all it takes is a 7-10 game winning streak (a streak that we waited for all of last year that never came) to get back on top of the division. If we don't make a run at some point in May, then that glass starts to look a little more empty.
In Gammons article, you might want to note that the Yankees and Astros are also in the same boat, and I don't see both of them missing the playoffs (at least the Yankees anyway).
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