If you pay attention to the general sports media, you wouldn't have much of a reason to believe the Phillies have a chance at the post season this year. All of the so-called experts believe that the off-season moves the Mets have made makes them the odds on favorite to win the N.L. East, or at least take the Wildcard. I have some specific comments about their team and where their flaws are, but will reserve them for a later posting. Everyone else picks the Braves to win the N.L. East, and while you can't blame the media for picking a team that has won the division 14 straight years, it shouldn't just be handed to them, especially when they are in semi-rebuilding mode.
If you take an objective look at the team the Phillies have put together for this season, any reasonable person would believe they are a legitimate contender for the post-season. So, on the eve of the eve of the season opening, I thought it would be good to point out the reasons why the Phillies should be getting more consideration.
1) Jimmy Rollins
Never underestimate the importance of a quality lead-off hitter. In the last few years, Rollins has finally figured out how important his role is on the team, and that translated to a 36 game hitting streak to end of the regular season last year. Quite literally, as Jimmy Rollins goes, so goes the Phillies. The table setter is quite possibly the most important spot in the lineup. Just think about all of those Braves teams that had Kenny Lofton (in his prime) and Rafael Furcal leading off. If Rollins can manage a .350 OBP, the Phillies should walk into the post-season.
Jimmy Rollins - .296 BA / 13 HR / 62 RBI / 38 SB / 116 R
While I am clearly a Phillies fan, I want you to know that any statistical projections come from my experience as a Fantasy Baseball manager. These stats come from an accumulation of several expert Fantasy Baseball sources. And, when it comes to projecting stats, Fantasy Baseball is the most un-biased place to look.
2) A full season of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard
Last year the Phillies started off slowly, and part of the reason was an injured Jim Thome and a platooning Chase Utley. Once Polanco was traded and Thome was placed on the DL, both Utley and Howard had a chance to flourish, and so did the Phillies playoff chances. With a full season of both these young power hitters playing, the Phillies will be better off than they were last year. Here are their projections for this year:
Chase Utley - .293 BA / 31 HR / 106 RBI / 17 SB
Ryan Howard - .279 BA / 37 HR / 105 RBI
3) We still have Abreu and Burrell
This Phillies lineup has the chance to be the best hitting team in the N.L. and probably on par with the Yankees, Red Sox or White Sox. I've already talked about Rollins, Utley and Howard as keys to the season, but let's not take for granted the other big bats in the order. Here are their statistical projections:
Bobby Abreu - .295 BA / 27 HR / 105 RBI / 28 SB
Pat Burrell - .276 BA / 30 HR / 108 RBI
As you can see, the Phillies project out to four 100 RBI guys in their lineup. How impressive a feat would this be. To begin with, no team had four 100 RBI guys last year. Only 2 teams managed three 100 RBI guys (Phillies included) and 3 others had two 100 RBI guys. Here's the list:
Phillies - Bobby Abreu (102), Chase Utley (105), and Pat Burrell (117)
New York Yankees - Alex Rodriguez (130), Gary Sheffield (123) and Hideki Matsui (116)
Boston - Manny Ramirez (144) and David Ortiz (148)
Texas - Alfonso Soriano (104) and Mark Texiera (144)
Florida - Miguel Cabrera (116) and Carlos Delgado (115)
4) Aaron Rowand
The addition of Rowand to the team has been much heralded as a guy who plays hard and has World Series experience. That's great and all, but what Rowand really brings to the table is a solid bat in the lineup and gold glove level defense in center field. Whether Rowand bats 2nd or 6th in the lineup doesn't really matter since he will produce runs either way. What really matters is his defense and what it will mean to the starting staff. Having a guy track down ball that would normally hit off the wall for a double will do wonders for a pitching staff's confidence, not to mention the number of runs he will save. For the record here are his projections and they aren't too shabby either:
Aaron Rowand - .281 BA / 20 HR / 77 RBI / 14 SB
5) We have options at Third Base
It's widely understood that the Phillies have one of the worst offensive 3rd basemen in the game with David Bell. He's a great clubhouse guy and all, but if he doesn't produce like he did in 2004, he will be on a short leash. Pat Gillick was savvy enough to go out and get Abraham Nunez and Alex Gonzalez. I've mentioned Gonzalez's stats before and his average year is about what Bell's career year equals. So, one way or another it seems the Phillies will get solid production from their 3rd basemen this year.
6) The Relief Staff
Yes, the Phillies lost one of the best closers in the game in Billy Wagner, but think back a moment to last year. Remember how Wagner folded in the face of back-to-back games with the Astros. Ok, maybe that isn't fair, he is one of the dominant closers and it isn't good news to loose him to a division rival. Remember back again to last year when the middle relievers couldn't hold a lead the first half of the year. Tim Worrell had personal issues, Terry Adams was horrible and Rheal Cormier couldn't get any right handers out and Ryan Madson even had a bit of a down year.
While Tom Gordon isn't at quite the level of Wagner, he is a solid replacement who should do well in the role of closer. What's more important are the other 6 guys in the bullpen. After last year, just about any collection of 6 relievers would be in better shape. And the Phillies have put together a solid collection of arms. Arthur Rhodes is one of the best setup men in the game. Fultz will be back and hopefully can build on his success from last year. Cormier can't be as bad as he was last year, in either case, he shouldn't be facing anything but lefties where he did have success. Ryan Franklin is now the 7th inning guy, and his stuff is pretty solid for that role, he should be every bit as effective as Madson was in the role.
The point here is that on the surface, the relief staff doesn't get fans all that excited, but when you look at them on the whole and compare them to last year, the Phillies appear much better off.
7) Strong Young Arms mixed with some Quality Veterans
The starting rotation may be the achilles heal of this year's team, but they may not be as bad as people make them out to be. First of all, the fences in Citizen's Bank Park have been moved back in left field, which should hold in more of those pop flies that found their way out of the park last year. While this is a benefit to any pitcher, it should help with the Phillies confidence in thowing all of their pitches.
Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are pretty much known quantities and can be counted on for solid innings that keep the Phillies in most of their games. Remember, the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup, so any game that is close is win-able for this team.
The rest of the staff is where fans could find a lot of excitement this year. Brett Myers came into his own last year and appears poised for a breakout season (if last year wasn't already that). People still compare him to Curt Schilling, and if he can pitch like Schilling did in his prime, the Phillies will be in great shape.
This brings up the back of the rotation. Most teams have a dependable, veteran arm with little upside and a rookie looking to make a mark in the back of their rotations. The Phillies have 2 young guns with a chance to be special in the back of their rotation. Ryan Madson had a great spring and has a great history of starting in the minors. If he can do it for a full year, he has a chance to be a special pitcher. I've already discussed Gavin Floyd's potential, and he is certainly a wildcard. If he pitches to his potential he is the ace of the staff, if he flames out then the Phillies have other options. Either way, the starting staff looks like all upside at this point.
8) Other Quick Points
While there is much to be optimistic about with this team, there are several other factors that could be good news for the Phillies this year, since this post is getting rather long, I'll just list them for you.
- Great team defense
- Top of the league in team speed
- Charlie Manuel has hopefully figured out the pieces
- A power hitting backup catcher and speedy outfielder making up a solid bench
- Great young pitching talent in the minors ready for the opportunity
- Randy Wolf's potential return in July
While it's easy for any team to make a case for winning their division, I think the Phillies have as strong a case as any team in the league. Now, let's go out and play ball...and stay positive Phillies fans.
31 March 2006
30 March 2006
Floyd Makes the Rotation
MLB.com is reporting that Gavin Floyd has been named the Phillies #5 starter. This is great news for Phillies fans as Floyd has long been considered a potential ace of the staff. After his setbacks last year, he has come through in a big way this spring and earned himself a shot at becoming that ace.
This leaves one open question for the Phillies, who lost their spot in the starting rotation and becomes the 7th inning guy? We know that Lieber, Myers and Lidle have been named the starting 3, so that leaves one of the Ryan's...Madson or Franklin.
With the success Madson has had in the bullpen the last couple of years, it would be an easy move to send him to the 'pen. However, with as good a spring that Floyd has had, Madson's has been even better, suggesting that he has earned a spot in the rotation as well. Manuel has stated that he wants the best players to go north with him, and given the spring stats, Madson is the best for the starting rotation.
This leaves Ryan Franklin as the most likely person to move to the 'pen. Interestingly enough, he was signed with the knowledge that he might pitch in relief. His brother (and agent) even included incentives for total number of appearances, suggesting that relief was a real possiblity. Add to this that Manuel is refusing to name the final 2 starters, but is also saying that he has definitely made up his mind. Franklin has been out of camp lately, so if you read between the lines, this likely means that Manuel wants to tell Franklin in person before telling the media.
Great news Phillies fans, our starting rotation may now be full of great potential. Madson already had nice upside, but not much was expected out of Franklin. With Floyd in the rotation, this could be a very exciting pitching staff. It's way too early to predict anything, but this staff definitely has the potential to be dominant if everything works out.
This leaves one open question for the Phillies, who lost their spot in the starting rotation and becomes the 7th inning guy? We know that Lieber, Myers and Lidle have been named the starting 3, so that leaves one of the Ryan's...Madson or Franklin.
With the success Madson has had in the bullpen the last couple of years, it would be an easy move to send him to the 'pen. However, with as good a spring that Floyd has had, Madson's has been even better, suggesting that he has earned a spot in the rotation as well. Manuel has stated that he wants the best players to go north with him, and given the spring stats, Madson is the best for the starting rotation.
This leaves Ryan Franklin as the most likely person to move to the 'pen. Interestingly enough, he was signed with the knowledge that he might pitch in relief. His brother (and agent) even included incentives for total number of appearances, suggesting that relief was a real possiblity. Add to this that Manuel is refusing to name the final 2 starters, but is also saying that he has definitely made up his mind. Franklin has been out of camp lately, so if you read between the lines, this likely means that Manuel wants to tell Franklin in person before telling the media.
Great news Phillies fans, our starting rotation may now be full of great potential. Madson already had nice upside, but not much was expected out of Franklin. With Floyd in the rotation, this could be a very exciting pitching staff. It's way too early to predict anything, but this staff definitely has the potential to be dominant if everything works out.
21 March 2006
Too Much Pitching?
As the old adage goes, "You can never have too much pitching". No one is going to accuse the Phillies of having the best pitching staff in baseball, the National League, or event the N.L. East. In fact, they probably have the 3rd best staff in the N.L. East. But is it possible they have assembled more major-league ready arms than any other team on the planet outside of Korea?
Consider this, we already know the starting rotation is set with:
Jon Lieber
Brett Meyers
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madson
Ryan Franklin
Baring anything unforseen, those 5 will break camp as the rotation. This means that last year's stand outs Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito are destined for a bus ticket to Scranton. Add to that the stellar spring that Gavin Floyd is having, and the likelihood that Ricardo Rodriguez will also have the same bus tickets, and the Red Barrons should be in great shape this season.
Gavin's Comeback
Speaking of Floyd, it's encouraging to see that he is trusting his stuff again and is making a concerted effort to stop overthinking every situation. This has paid off with a 3-0 spring training record and a 2.30 ERA. It looks like the "Future Ace" might have turned the corner and be back on track to reaching the big club.
Gavin is probably headed for triple-A to show that he can keep the success going for an extended period of time, but at the first sign of ineffectiveness from Franklin or Madson, or the first injury for any starter, Floyd could be the one called up. If he does get the call, let's hope he makes the most of his opportunity and supplants himself as a key member of the rotation.
Getting back on Topic
Continuing on the theme of great pitching prospects, the Phillies also have Cole Hamels, Giovani Gonzalez, Scott Mathieson and Daniel Haigwood. Most of these guys should be pitching for double-AA Reading this year.
Hamels has long been projected as a "Future Ace" and if it weren't for his many injuries, he would probably be a part of the Phillies rotation this year. His stuff is filthy and he has been complimented from the likes of Alex Rodriguez as one guy he wouldn't want to face again. With such high praise and obvious talent, if Hamels can just stay healthy a full year, he should quickly advance to the big club.
Gonzalez, one of the "Other Guys" in the Thome trade projects as a top-of-the-rotation type of starter, while Haigwood (the other "Other Guy") projects as a solid back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. If both of these guys make the big leagues in the next couple of years, the Thome trade could look like a steal of a deal for the Phillies.
And, let's not forget that Randy Wolf is recovering from Tommy John surgery and could play a part for the Phillies in the second-half of the year. While the current rotation is a solid group, the future looks very bright for the Phillies on the mound.
Crystal Ball
Taking a look into the future, just what might the Phillies staff look like? First, let's assume that Gillick isn't able to land that big name starter by next season, then assuming Lidle and Franklin aren't re-signed and Lieber decides to retire (ok, the crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, but let's assume all of this anyway). This leaves a potential rotation of:
Brett Meyers
Ryan Madson
Randy Wolf
Cole Hamels
Gavin Floyd
This of course if how the Phillies drew it up a couple of years ago, but it could happen sooner rather than later, and this would be the type of staff that can help a team win for a long time.
Random Thoughts
David Bell's back is continuing to hurt him, and I think most Phillies fans aren't all that concerned. If he isn't ready to go the first few weeks of the season, it could be interesting watching what Gonzalez and Nunez can do...Peter Bergeron was sent down today, so he won't be making the team. The slap-hitting, ex-Expo would have been one of the feel good stories of the year if he had made it, but the Phillies are looking for more of a power hitter off the bench. Maybe we will see him sometime during the year...Chris Coste (pronounced Coast) is making a strong case for making the team, and that would be an even better feel-good story of a 33 year old rookie. What's even more intriguing about Coste is the fact that he can fill in as a catcher if needed, which would free up Fasano as the power-hitting pinch hitter the Phillies are looking for.
Consider this, we already know the starting rotation is set with:
Jon Lieber
Brett Meyers
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madson
Ryan Franklin
Baring anything unforseen, those 5 will break camp as the rotation. This means that last year's stand outs Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito are destined for a bus ticket to Scranton. Add to that the stellar spring that Gavin Floyd is having, and the likelihood that Ricardo Rodriguez will also have the same bus tickets, and the Red Barrons should be in great shape this season.
Gavin's Comeback
Speaking of Floyd, it's encouraging to see that he is trusting his stuff again and is making a concerted effort to stop overthinking every situation. This has paid off with a 3-0 spring training record and a 2.30 ERA. It looks like the "Future Ace" might have turned the corner and be back on track to reaching the big club.
Gavin is probably headed for triple-A to show that he can keep the success going for an extended period of time, but at the first sign of ineffectiveness from Franklin or Madson, or the first injury for any starter, Floyd could be the one called up. If he does get the call, let's hope he makes the most of his opportunity and supplants himself as a key member of the rotation.
Getting back on Topic
Continuing on the theme of great pitching prospects, the Phillies also have Cole Hamels, Giovani Gonzalez, Scott Mathieson and Daniel Haigwood. Most of these guys should be pitching for double-AA Reading this year.
Hamels has long been projected as a "Future Ace" and if it weren't for his many injuries, he would probably be a part of the Phillies rotation this year. His stuff is filthy and he has been complimented from the likes of Alex Rodriguez as one guy he wouldn't want to face again. With such high praise and obvious talent, if Hamels can just stay healthy a full year, he should quickly advance to the big club.
Gonzalez, one of the "Other Guys" in the Thome trade projects as a top-of-the-rotation type of starter, while Haigwood (the other "Other Guy") projects as a solid back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. If both of these guys make the big leagues in the next couple of years, the Thome trade could look like a steal of a deal for the Phillies.
And, let's not forget that Randy Wolf is recovering from Tommy John surgery and could play a part for the Phillies in the second-half of the year. While the current rotation is a solid group, the future looks very bright for the Phillies on the mound.
Crystal Ball
Taking a look into the future, just what might the Phillies staff look like? First, let's assume that Gillick isn't able to land that big name starter by next season, then assuming Lidle and Franklin aren't re-signed and Lieber decides to retire (ok, the crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, but let's assume all of this anyway). This leaves a potential rotation of:
Brett Meyers
Ryan Madson
Randy Wolf
Cole Hamels
Gavin Floyd
This of course if how the Phillies drew it up a couple of years ago, but it could happen sooner rather than later, and this would be the type of staff that can help a team win for a long time.
Random Thoughts
David Bell's back is continuing to hurt him, and I think most Phillies fans aren't all that concerned. If he isn't ready to go the first few weeks of the season, it could be interesting watching what Gonzalez and Nunez can do...Peter Bergeron was sent down today, so he won't be making the team. The slap-hitting, ex-Expo would have been one of the feel good stories of the year if he had made it, but the Phillies are looking for more of a power hitter off the bench. Maybe we will see him sometime during the year...Chris Coste (pronounced Coast) is making a strong case for making the team, and that would be an even better feel-good story of a 33 year old rookie. What's even more intriguing about Coste is the fact that he can fill in as a catcher if needed, which would free up Fasano as the power-hitting pinch hitter the Phillies are looking for.
01 March 2006
Catching Up
Ok, I've got some catching up to do since my last blog. Sorry for those of you who have been checking in looking for some new information. With Spring Training well underway (games started today), the time for baseball discussion is back.
Couple of New Faces
Since the signing of Ryan Franklin there have been a couple of minor deals. I'm sure you've read enough about them already, but I felt the need to weigh in on them before moving on to more pressing questions like how the Phillies will do this year.
The Phillies made a deal to aquire Arthur Rhodes and then signed Alex S. Gonzalez to a one year contract.
Leading up to the signing of Rhodes, Gillick was really in the market for a top of the rotation starter to anchor the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the few guys that were available came at a premium, the kind of premium that a Bobby Abreu just didn't justify. So in the end, the strategy is to let Ryan Madson step into the rotation to see what he can do. Overall this is a sound strategy for the pitching staff, as we really need to see what Madson can do. If he struggles for a couple of months, well then we know he is cut out for the bullpen and that he can be successful there. This also opens the door for one of the myriad of young pitchers the Phillies seem to have now.
Back to the transactions, first Jason Michaels was traded to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes. Overall this is a solid deal. It's tough to see Michaels go, but he was really a spare part as the 4th outfielder on this team, and didn't figure to get all that many at-bats with Aaron Rowand in town. Shane Victorino also looks ready to go to fill Michaels role and projects to some pretty nice numbers. Now to Rhodes.
Arthur Rhodes has built a career on being one of the best setup guys in baseball. From a Fantasy Baseball perspective, in the late 90s and early 00s, Rhodes was always the first middle reliever off the boards thanks to his consistent and quality stats. Once Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene with his 100 strike outs, Rhodes took a back seat, but was still consider a quality option.
Rhodes best seasons were in Seattle in 2001 and 2002 where he put up 1.72 and 2.33 ERA's and 83 and 81 Ks respectively. Those years prompted a move to closing for Rhodes, who was signed by Oakland in 2004 to be their guy. Unfortunately he didn't have the makeup for closing as the Athletics quickly found out in when he put up a gastly 5.12 ERA and blew 5 of his 14 save opportunities and lost the ability to strike hitters out. After that experiment Rhodes became a forgotten pitcher.
Enter Cleveland last year who took a shot on Rhodes and decided to keep him around as a setup man. Rhodes thrived without the spotlight on him and posted a 2.08 ERA and raised his K rate to 9 per 9 innings. You can write 2004 off when considering his stats. The Phillies should expect a similar season to last, as long as Manual resists the temptation to try him out in the closer's role. He can close on occasion, but only when the situation warrants, not as the "go to guy".
About Gonzalez
Being from Chicago, I know all about this Alex Gonzalez, vs. the other Alex Gonzalez who played several years for the Marlins and doesn't have an "S" for a middle initial. On a brisk October eve in 2003, the Cubs had Prior on the mound and were not so many outs away from advancing to the World Series, the first in nearly 100 years, and with the way Prior was pitching they looked dialed in. That's when The Curse struck. You all remember Steve Bartman knocking the ball away from Moises Alou, but you may not remember what happened next. The Bartman ball didn't cause any harm, since it was ruled foul, however the lazy groundball that was hit towards Gonzalez at short is where the game started to unravel. It's not like the ball was hit all that hard, it even had a nice easy hop up to Gonzalez's glove, however The Curse grabbed his glove and made him muff the play, opening the gates to the tying runs. For a guy with a career .973 fielding percentage, that was as easy a play as it gets. Way easier than the Dave Kingman play, but this is the Cubs and they are cursed.
As for Gonzalez, well he is actually a pretty solid hitter, who was moved to third base last year, making this signing quite interesting.
Consider these numbers.
18 HR
66 RBI
.266 BA
These are Gonzalez's average numbers from 2000-2003. The last time he was a full-time player. He was injured and split time between 3 teams in 2004, and only got 349 at bats last year. Project last years numbers out and he would have had 15 HR, 60 RBI and he did hit .269, so right on his average. What's my point you ask? These numbers aren't very exciting to think about you say?
Well, consider David Bell's production from 2004 when he had a career year.
18 HR
77 RBI
.291 BA
Yep, a little better than Gonzalez's average year, but not that much better, and we all know how Bell did in 2003 and in 2005, the numbers are too ugly to even post here. The point is that Gonzalez will put up the same offensive numbers as Bell when Bell is playing right. Hearing that Bell is still having back problems doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his play.
The signing of Gonzalez was a shrewd and brilliant move by Gillick. Here is a guy that can take over the everyday duties at 3rd if Bell gets injured or doesn't peform, and for 3.5 Million less. And, by the way, his fielding percentage was .938 at 3rd last year vs. Bell's .951, so an argument could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that this was the first year Gonzalez played the position, he can only get better, and he wouldn't have to be all that much better to catch up to .951. Gonzalez's career fielding percentage is .973 vs. Bell's .966.
Baring injury, Bell will be the opening-day 3rd baseman, but if he doesn't hit well, look for a move to Gonzalez. Bell does crush left-handed pitching, so a platoon wouldn't be all that bad an idea, ala Lofton and Michaels in center last year. And of course there is Abraham Nunez who is a solid utility infielder who can also play 3rd, but he doesn't project to the numbers that Gonzalez or Bell should put up.
Random Thoughts
The small media frenzy around Abreu's potential trade situation was quite silly. Bobby is a professional and goes about his business in a very professional manner, all this stuff about him really covering up his true feelings is just weird to hear. Whether he is or isn't, does anyone believe he's so emotional about this he can't play up to his standards. C'mon, there's no crying in baseball! Go get 'em Bobby, I'm glad your still around...Speaking of Abreu, does anyone else think he should be batting second in the order instead of Rowand? The top of the order's job is to get on base, and Abreu is much better at finding first than Rowand. With the bats of Utley, Howard and Burrell, you don't really need Bobby in the middle of the order. Sure he is naturally a number 3 hitter, but with his speed and OBP, he could score 150 runs...The news of Utley dedicating himself to improving over the off-season has to be exciting for Phillies fans. This is a guy who already projects to be the best hitting second baseman in the league, yes better than Kent. This assumes Soriano does play the outfield or gets traded to the Red Sox, though he is only better in Fantasy terms since Soriano doesn't really get on base enough and strikes out a ton. Go "Dirtball", or as I like to think of him the Lenny Dykstra of the infield...Speaking of Lenny Dykstra, I like the comparisons of his all-out style of play to that of Aaron Rowand. A lineup with two Dykstras can't loose.
Couple of New Faces
Since the signing of Ryan Franklin there have been a couple of minor deals. I'm sure you've read enough about them already, but I felt the need to weigh in on them before moving on to more pressing questions like how the Phillies will do this year.
The Phillies made a deal to aquire Arthur Rhodes and then signed Alex S. Gonzalez to a one year contract.
Leading up to the signing of Rhodes, Gillick was really in the market for a top of the rotation starter to anchor the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the few guys that were available came at a premium, the kind of premium that a Bobby Abreu just didn't justify. So in the end, the strategy is to let Ryan Madson step into the rotation to see what he can do. Overall this is a sound strategy for the pitching staff, as we really need to see what Madson can do. If he struggles for a couple of months, well then we know he is cut out for the bullpen and that he can be successful there. This also opens the door for one of the myriad of young pitchers the Phillies seem to have now.
Back to the transactions, first Jason Michaels was traded to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes. Overall this is a solid deal. It's tough to see Michaels go, but he was really a spare part as the 4th outfielder on this team, and didn't figure to get all that many at-bats with Aaron Rowand in town. Shane Victorino also looks ready to go to fill Michaels role and projects to some pretty nice numbers. Now to Rhodes.
Arthur Rhodes has built a career on being one of the best setup guys in baseball. From a Fantasy Baseball perspective, in the late 90s and early 00s, Rhodes was always the first middle reliever off the boards thanks to his consistent and quality stats. Once Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene with his 100 strike outs, Rhodes took a back seat, but was still consider a quality option.
Rhodes best seasons were in Seattle in 2001 and 2002 where he put up 1.72 and 2.33 ERA's and 83 and 81 Ks respectively. Those years prompted a move to closing for Rhodes, who was signed by Oakland in 2004 to be their guy. Unfortunately he didn't have the makeup for closing as the Athletics quickly found out in when he put up a gastly 5.12 ERA and blew 5 of his 14 save opportunities and lost the ability to strike hitters out. After that experiment Rhodes became a forgotten pitcher.
Enter Cleveland last year who took a shot on Rhodes and decided to keep him around as a setup man. Rhodes thrived without the spotlight on him and posted a 2.08 ERA and raised his K rate to 9 per 9 innings. You can write 2004 off when considering his stats. The Phillies should expect a similar season to last, as long as Manual resists the temptation to try him out in the closer's role. He can close on occasion, but only when the situation warrants, not as the "go to guy".
About Gonzalez
Being from Chicago, I know all about this Alex Gonzalez, vs. the other Alex Gonzalez who played several years for the Marlins and doesn't have an "S" for a middle initial. On a brisk October eve in 2003, the Cubs had Prior on the mound and were not so many outs away from advancing to the World Series, the first in nearly 100 years, and with the way Prior was pitching they looked dialed in. That's when The Curse struck. You all remember Steve Bartman knocking the ball away from Moises Alou, but you may not remember what happened next. The Bartman ball didn't cause any harm, since it was ruled foul, however the lazy groundball that was hit towards Gonzalez at short is where the game started to unravel. It's not like the ball was hit all that hard, it even had a nice easy hop up to Gonzalez's glove, however The Curse grabbed his glove and made him muff the play, opening the gates to the tying runs. For a guy with a career .973 fielding percentage, that was as easy a play as it gets. Way easier than the Dave Kingman play, but this is the Cubs and they are cursed.
As for Gonzalez, well he is actually a pretty solid hitter, who was moved to third base last year, making this signing quite interesting.
Consider these numbers.
18 HR
66 RBI
.266 BA
These are Gonzalez's average numbers from 2000-2003. The last time he was a full-time player. He was injured and split time between 3 teams in 2004, and only got 349 at bats last year. Project last years numbers out and he would have had 15 HR, 60 RBI and he did hit .269, so right on his average. What's my point you ask? These numbers aren't very exciting to think about you say?
Well, consider David Bell's production from 2004 when he had a career year.
18 HR
77 RBI
.291 BA
Yep, a little better than Gonzalez's average year, but not that much better, and we all know how Bell did in 2003 and in 2005, the numbers are too ugly to even post here. The point is that Gonzalez will put up the same offensive numbers as Bell when Bell is playing right. Hearing that Bell is still having back problems doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his play.
The signing of Gonzalez was a shrewd and brilliant move by Gillick. Here is a guy that can take over the everyday duties at 3rd if Bell gets injured or doesn't peform, and for 3.5 Million less. And, by the way, his fielding percentage was .938 at 3rd last year vs. Bell's .951, so an argument could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that this was the first year Gonzalez played the position, he can only get better, and he wouldn't have to be all that much better to catch up to .951. Gonzalez's career fielding percentage is .973 vs. Bell's .966.
Baring injury, Bell will be the opening-day 3rd baseman, but if he doesn't hit well, look for a move to Gonzalez. Bell does crush left-handed pitching, so a platoon wouldn't be all that bad an idea, ala Lofton and Michaels in center last year. And of course there is Abraham Nunez who is a solid utility infielder who can also play 3rd, but he doesn't project to the numbers that Gonzalez or Bell should put up.
Random Thoughts
The small media frenzy around Abreu's potential trade situation was quite silly. Bobby is a professional and goes about his business in a very professional manner, all this stuff about him really covering up his true feelings is just weird to hear. Whether he is or isn't, does anyone believe he's so emotional about this he can't play up to his standards. C'mon, there's no crying in baseball! Go get 'em Bobby, I'm glad your still around...Speaking of Abreu, does anyone else think he should be batting second in the order instead of Rowand? The top of the order's job is to get on base, and Abreu is much better at finding first than Rowand. With the bats of Utley, Howard and Burrell, you don't really need Bobby in the middle of the order. Sure he is naturally a number 3 hitter, but with his speed and OBP, he could score 150 runs...The news of Utley dedicating himself to improving over the off-season has to be exciting for Phillies fans. This is a guy who already projects to be the best hitting second baseman in the league, yes better than Kent. This assumes Soriano does play the outfield or gets traded to the Red Sox, though he is only better in Fantasy terms since Soriano doesn't really get on base enough and strikes out a ton. Go "Dirtball", or as I like to think of him the Lenny Dykstra of the infield...Speaking of Lenny Dykstra, I like the comparisons of his all-out style of play to that of Aaron Rowand. A lineup with two Dykstras can't loose.
08 January 2006
Phillies Round out the Rotation with Ryan Franklin
After a disappointing off-season of transactions and in desperate need of another arm in the rotation, the Phillies have settled on Ryan Franklin. Formerly of the Seattle Mariners, Franklin is an average pitcher who logs a lot of innings, but doesn't inspire much excitement. In his own words, Ryan says "I don't want to say I wore out my welcome in Seattle, but I was ready to move on."
In looking into his career statistics, it's hard to find much to be hopeful about. His numbers are pretty consistent across the board. In looking at his past 3 years, Ryan has a 4.49 ERA, and that pretty much seems to be his ERA in about every other key area:
4.20 Home
4.77 Away
4.27 Night
5.06 Day
4.62 April
4.21 May
4.22 June
4.85 July
5.75 August
3.50 September
4.43 Pre-All Star
4.57 Post-All Star
As you can see, it's pretty consistent except for late in the year when he appears to wear down in August only to have a renaissance in September. Maybe Franklin can be a serviceable starter for the first half of the year, enough time to get Randy Wolf healthy and into the mix.
If you are looking for a ray of hope from Ryan Franklin, look to his 2003 season where he posted a 3.57 ERA, though he did give up a career worst 34 Home Runs, a stat that should scare most Phillies fans. With the fences moving back in left field, maybe it won't be as big of an issue, but pitchers that give up too many home runs outside of Citizens Bank Park are in some trouble inside the Bank.
I suppose the good news in this signing is that Ryan Madson should now stay put in the bullpen. With the loss of Wagner and Urbina, his arm will be greatly needed in late inning situations. Madson could conceivably become the closer for the Phillies if Tom Gordon falters; a scenario that could likely come about given Gordon's lack of closing experience the past several years. This assumes that Gavin Floyd is ready to take his place in the starting rotation, and lets all hope that Gavin is finally ready.
At best we can hope Franklin turns out to be another Cory Lidle type pitcher, at worst, he is cut by the All-Star break to make room in the rotation for Randy Wolf, basically Franklin is in town to eat up some innings and keep the Phillies in about half the games he pitches. It could be worse, think Eric Milton and all of those home run balls, but certainly not the way Gillick had drawn it up at the beginning of the off-season.
Welcome Ryan Franklin, and good luck.
Random Thoughts
What's with the continued Abreu rumors? Why is Gillick so intent on trading the Phillies best hitter? You got me. The most recent rumor is Tejada for Abreu. Not sure how that makes sense when the Phillies have Rollins at SS and are paying about the same money for Abreu as they would for Tejada. Maybe it just sounds cool to have Tejada and Tejeda on the same team...Speaking of Tejeda, he seems to be a forgotten man this off-season, after the year he had, I expected him to be shopped heavily. It seemed almost natural to offer Tejeda and Michaels to the A's for Barry Zito. The A's just love guys with potential, especially young pitchers. Ah well, maybe during the season then.
In looking into his career statistics, it's hard to find much to be hopeful about. His numbers are pretty consistent across the board. In looking at his past 3 years, Ryan has a 4.49 ERA, and that pretty much seems to be his ERA in about every other key area:
4.20 Home
4.77 Away
4.27 Night
5.06 Day
4.62 April
4.21 May
4.22 June
4.85 July
5.75 August
3.50 September
4.43 Pre-All Star
4.57 Post-All Star
As you can see, it's pretty consistent except for late in the year when he appears to wear down in August only to have a renaissance in September. Maybe Franklin can be a serviceable starter for the first half of the year, enough time to get Randy Wolf healthy and into the mix.
If you are looking for a ray of hope from Ryan Franklin, look to his 2003 season where he posted a 3.57 ERA, though he did give up a career worst 34 Home Runs, a stat that should scare most Phillies fans. With the fences moving back in left field, maybe it won't be as big of an issue, but pitchers that give up too many home runs outside of Citizens Bank Park are in some trouble inside the Bank.
I suppose the good news in this signing is that Ryan Madson should now stay put in the bullpen. With the loss of Wagner and Urbina, his arm will be greatly needed in late inning situations. Madson could conceivably become the closer for the Phillies if Tom Gordon falters; a scenario that could likely come about given Gordon's lack of closing experience the past several years. This assumes that Gavin Floyd is ready to take his place in the starting rotation, and lets all hope that Gavin is finally ready.
At best we can hope Franklin turns out to be another Cory Lidle type pitcher, at worst, he is cut by the All-Star break to make room in the rotation for Randy Wolf, basically Franklin is in town to eat up some innings and keep the Phillies in about half the games he pitches. It could be worse, think Eric Milton and all of those home run balls, but certainly not the way Gillick had drawn it up at the beginning of the off-season.
Welcome Ryan Franklin, and good luck.
Random Thoughts
What's with the continued Abreu rumors? Why is Gillick so intent on trading the Phillies best hitter? You got me. The most recent rumor is Tejada for Abreu. Not sure how that makes sense when the Phillies have Rollins at SS and are paying about the same money for Abreu as they would for Tejada. Maybe it just sounds cool to have Tejada and Tejeda on the same team...Speaking of Tejeda, he seems to be a forgotten man this off-season, after the year he had, I expected him to be shopped heavily. It seemed almost natural to offer Tejeda and Michaels to the A's for Barry Zito. The A's just love guys with potential, especially young pitchers. Ah well, maybe during the season then.
06 December 2005
Slew of Recent Moves, What Gives?
Since the trade of Jim Thome, the Phillies have been very busy with pitching, and not much of it is good news for improving the team.
Exit the Sandman
First, Billy Wagner bolted for the Mets, and who can blame him when the Mets are throwing money around like George Steinbrenner. $43 Million is way too much for a closer, even one as dominent as Wagner, but that's what you get in a free agent year that has mediocre talent all around. It's really a shame that Ed Wade didn't sign Wagner to the 3 year $24 Million contract that Wagner wanted during the season. Seems like quite a bargin now. Wagner will be impossible to replace and to make it worse will be facing off against the Phillies several times next year. The only plus to that is Wagner's track record with past teams, he didn't look like much against the Astros last year, so we can hold on to that hope.
Enter the Old Man
To make up for the loss of Billy Wagner, the Phillies promptly turned around and signed Tom "Flash" Gordon. While the Phillies weren't willing to guarantee a 4th year for the 34 year old Wagner, they had no problem guaranteeing a 3 year $18 Million contract for the 38 year old Tom Gordon. Did I mention how strange this free-agent season has become? If not, this deal epitomizes it. Kyle Farnsworth BTW signed a 3 year $17 Million deal to be Gordon's replacement in the Bronx. Yes, very strange indeed.
Had this deal been made 7 years ago, it would be great for the Phillies. You see, Gordon hasn't actually been a full-time closer since the 2001 season when he was with the Cubs. In fact, Gordon has only been a closer for 3 or 4 years of his 19 year career, he was great in '98. That said, Gordon has been a fabulous setup man the past 3 years, registering a 2.62 ERA and 18 Saves -- albeit in 36 chances, giving him a 50% success rate.
Gordon will probably be a competent reliever in 2006 -- read that to mean better than Mesa -- assuming he can improve his save conversion rate, beyond that, it will be up to his conditioning to decide if he stays effective, or becomes a high priced setup man. It seems to me that Trevor Hoffman would have been a better option, but the Phillies got the man they really wanted!? Hopefully Gillick knows something we don't and he can do the job.
Actually, if he can come through in the big games, that would be better than Wagner did for the team last year. As great as Wagner was, blowing an easy win against the Marlins and 2 against the Astros late in the year sealed the Phillies fate last year.
Phillies Sign No Name Relievier
Looking to bolster a depleated bullpen, the Phillies went out and signed Julio Santana. Who is this guy you ask? I don't really know either. Apparently Santana has been floating around the league since 1997, and started out last year in the minors after a stint in Japan the year before. As a role player in the Phillies bullpen, he might not be all that bad as he strikes out more than 1 batter per inning and managed a .221 BAA last year, both very solid stats. It seems that control is what plagues this journey-man reliever.
Speaking of a "depleated bullpen" I can't say that I quite understand that thought. Yes, the team lost Wagner and probably Urbina, but they still have Geary, Fultz, Madson and (ugh) Cormier. But, they also have Tejeda and Brito who have lively arms and can spot start. Hmm, maybe Urbina can get out of jail and help us out, then you could make an argument that this bullpen is better than last years, even without Wagner.
Phillies Sign No-Name Catcher
Yes, today's blog is centered on pitching and the aftermath of Wagner leaving, but the Phillies also signed a new backup catcher, which directly effects the pitching staff. While I don't know much about Sal Fasano, another journey-man who has been around since 1996, the wrap on him is that he is a good defensive backstop, which is a good thing to have. However, this signals the end of Todd Pratt's time in Philadelphia, which might not be a good thing. Pratt was Lieber's personal catcher last year, and Lieber credits Pratt with making him a more effective pitcher. For whatever reason, Lieber isn't as comfortable with Mike Lieberthal, which could lead to a drop off in production for the Phillies (cough) ace.
Random Thoughts
A lot of rumors have been going around recently regarding Abreu being traded. How can this be a good thing for the Phillies next year? Take away the teams best hitter and Gold Glove right fielder for a middle of the rotation starter. The big rumor around the Cardinal's Jason Marquis makes no sense what-so-ever. Why would we want the Cardinal's worst pitcher for our best hitter? Maybe we are making up for the Steve Carlton trade...With all the emphasis on rounding out the pitching staff and staying within budget, why aren't the Phillies jumping on re-signing Vicente Padilla. While Padilla had some issues last year, he was the most dependable pitcher the Phillies had over the second half. He also happens to be the best available pitcher on the market after Javier Vasquez, and it would take a trade of Abreu to get him...As for the 5th spot in the rotation, people seem to be pushing Ryan Madson into that role. Has everyone forgotten about Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. One of those guys can surely get the job done, why not get all of them into the mix, Tejeda and Brito can both strengthen the bullpen if they don't start. And, don't forget that Randy Wolf should be back after the All-Star break, though he would be a better option for filling in for whoever is hurt by then, and of course we can't be sure how he will pitch after his surgery. Though recent history with this procedure suggests that he should be just fine.
Exit the Sandman
First, Billy Wagner bolted for the Mets, and who can blame him when the Mets are throwing money around like George Steinbrenner. $43 Million is way too much for a closer, even one as dominent as Wagner, but that's what you get in a free agent year that has mediocre talent all around. It's really a shame that Ed Wade didn't sign Wagner to the 3 year $24 Million contract that Wagner wanted during the season. Seems like quite a bargin now. Wagner will be impossible to replace and to make it worse will be facing off against the Phillies several times next year. The only plus to that is Wagner's track record with past teams, he didn't look like much against the Astros last year, so we can hold on to that hope.
Enter the Old Man
To make up for the loss of Billy Wagner, the Phillies promptly turned around and signed Tom "Flash" Gordon. While the Phillies weren't willing to guarantee a 4th year for the 34 year old Wagner, they had no problem guaranteeing a 3 year $18 Million contract for the 38 year old Tom Gordon. Did I mention how strange this free-agent season has become? If not, this deal epitomizes it. Kyle Farnsworth BTW signed a 3 year $17 Million deal to be Gordon's replacement in the Bronx. Yes, very strange indeed.
Had this deal been made 7 years ago, it would be great for the Phillies. You see, Gordon hasn't actually been a full-time closer since the 2001 season when he was with the Cubs. In fact, Gordon has only been a closer for 3 or 4 years of his 19 year career, he was great in '98. That said, Gordon has been a fabulous setup man the past 3 years, registering a 2.62 ERA and 18 Saves -- albeit in 36 chances, giving him a 50% success rate.
Gordon will probably be a competent reliever in 2006 -- read that to mean better than Mesa -- assuming he can improve his save conversion rate, beyond that, it will be up to his conditioning to decide if he stays effective, or becomes a high priced setup man. It seems to me that Trevor Hoffman would have been a better option, but the Phillies got the man they really wanted!? Hopefully Gillick knows something we don't and he can do the job.
Actually, if he can come through in the big games, that would be better than Wagner did for the team last year. As great as Wagner was, blowing an easy win against the Marlins and 2 against the Astros late in the year sealed the Phillies fate last year.
Phillies Sign No Name Relievier
Looking to bolster a depleated bullpen, the Phillies went out and signed Julio Santana. Who is this guy you ask? I don't really know either. Apparently Santana has been floating around the league since 1997, and started out last year in the minors after a stint in Japan the year before. As a role player in the Phillies bullpen, he might not be all that bad as he strikes out more than 1 batter per inning and managed a .221 BAA last year, both very solid stats. It seems that control is what plagues this journey-man reliever.
Speaking of a "depleated bullpen" I can't say that I quite understand that thought. Yes, the team lost Wagner and probably Urbina, but they still have Geary, Fultz, Madson and (ugh) Cormier. But, they also have Tejeda and Brito who have lively arms and can spot start. Hmm, maybe Urbina can get out of jail and help us out, then you could make an argument that this bullpen is better than last years, even without Wagner.
Phillies Sign No-Name Catcher
Yes, today's blog is centered on pitching and the aftermath of Wagner leaving, but the Phillies also signed a new backup catcher, which directly effects the pitching staff. While I don't know much about Sal Fasano, another journey-man who has been around since 1996, the wrap on him is that he is a good defensive backstop, which is a good thing to have. However, this signals the end of Todd Pratt's time in Philadelphia, which might not be a good thing. Pratt was Lieber's personal catcher last year, and Lieber credits Pratt with making him a more effective pitcher. For whatever reason, Lieber isn't as comfortable with Mike Lieberthal, which could lead to a drop off in production for the Phillies (cough) ace.
Random Thoughts
A lot of rumors have been going around recently regarding Abreu being traded. How can this be a good thing for the Phillies next year? Take away the teams best hitter and Gold Glove right fielder for a middle of the rotation starter. The big rumor around the Cardinal's Jason Marquis makes no sense what-so-ever. Why would we want the Cardinal's worst pitcher for our best hitter? Maybe we are making up for the Steve Carlton trade...With all the emphasis on rounding out the pitching staff and staying within budget, why aren't the Phillies jumping on re-signing Vicente Padilla. While Padilla had some issues last year, he was the most dependable pitcher the Phillies had over the second half. He also happens to be the best available pitcher on the market after Javier Vasquez, and it would take a trade of Abreu to get him...As for the 5th spot in the rotation, people seem to be pushing Ryan Madson into that role. Has everyone forgotten about Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. One of those guys can surely get the job done, why not get all of them into the mix, Tejeda and Brito can both strengthen the bullpen if they don't start. And, don't forget that Randy Wolf should be back after the All-Star break, though he would be a better option for filling in for whoever is hurt by then, and of course we can't be sure how he will pitch after his surgery. Though recent history with this procedure suggests that he should be just fine.
25 November 2005
He Gone, an Ode to Jim Thome
Jim Thome was an icon in Philadelphia the 3 years he was in town, and today that icon is moving to my home town of Chicago to play for the world champion Chicago White Sox. While it is sad to see Thome leave the Phillies after what he brought to this club, the move was badly needed to give Ryan Howard the chance to play everyday and to give the Phillies the payroll flexibility needed to find more pitching.
Thome is a great player, a great clubhouse guy and an all around great guy. His time in Philadelphia was short, but his story with the Phillies meant much more to this team than the left-handed power he brought to the field each day.
Overture
Prior to 2002, the Phillies were a team in search of an identity. With Scott Rolen's ascention to an elite player, Pat Burrell's arrival on the scene, and Bobby Abreu's emergence they had a fearsome 1-2-3 punch in the middle of the order. However, Rolen became a poison pill in the clubhouse, calling out the team as not being committed to winning, and finally turning down a long-term contract, forcing the Phillies to trade him to St. Louis. Prior to Rolen's fallout, the Phillies seemed to be moving in the right direction to become a contender, perhaps just a few more pieces away from contention. Now, the Phillies were missing a force in the middle of their lineup and searching for an answer.
With a new stadium being built, the Phillies knew they would be flush with money and were finally willing to spend the amount of money needed to field a team worthy of knocking off the Atlanta Braves and making a run at the World Series. The problem was, what moves to make.
Act I
Right around Thanksgiving of 2002, the Phillies started to make some bold moves to improve the team. Jim Thome signs an $85 million deal and thus changes the attitude of a ball club that was all too accustomed to loosing over it's 120 plus year history. The signing of Thome -- the largest contract in Phillies history -- showed everyone in baseball that Philadelphia was serious about fielding a winning team.
Thome rode into town with great fan fare, like a Roman general returning from a successful campaign against the Saxsons. Thome was instantly a hit with Phillies fans before playing a single game. Thome answered the fan fare by hitting 89 HR in his first 2 seasons and averaging 118 RBI. The Phillies narrowly missed the playoffs each year, and seemed just a few spare parts away from getting over the top.
Act II
2005 started out poorly for Thome with a back injury that limited his time in the lineup and effected his hitting. The Phillies came out of the gates slowly and looked like they were going to be burried in the competitive N.L. East. The fans started to boo and some of it was directed at Jim Thome. The season wore on and the Phillies clawed their way back into the division lead and had Thome coming back from the D.L. and all seemed to be good in the world again.
However, Thome's return weighed on the team as it was clear he wasn't the powerful force that he had been in 2003-04. The boos from the fans intensified. Thome finally hit the D.L. again on July 1 with elbow tendenitis. Once Thome went down, the Phillies called up young slugger Ryan Howard. A couple weeks after Howard arrived on the scene, the Phillies seemed to have new life and new hope for the post-season. With every game Howard continued clubbing the balls out of the ballpark and Thome started slipping to the back of fans' minds.
Thome finally shut his season down in August, electing to have elbow surgery, but the fans hardly noticed, his season ended producing just .207 with 7HR and 30RBI in 193AB. But the Phillies were in the thick of a playoff race and everyone knew that Ryan Howard was the key to getting them over the top. Howard did his part by hitting 22HR and 63RBI in just over half a season, including several key blasts to win games late in the season. Unfortunately, the Phillies finished the season 2 games behind the Braves and 1 Game behind the Astros for the Wild Card.
Act III
The Phillies enter the 2005 post-season with a new general manager, a budget that isn't allowed to expand much and several key personell questions.
The key questions, in no particular order:
- Who will be next year's closer?
- Who will play center field?
- How will the pitching staff be constructed after Lieber, Myers and Lidle?
- Who will play first base?
With the trade of Thome, Pat Gillick has answered two of those questions. First base is now Ryan Howard's domain, and hopefully will be for the next 15 years and 500 Home Runs. While the Phillies probably would have been satisfied with the White Sox giving up a couple of prospects and taking on close to half of Thome's remaining contract of $46M, the White Sox came up with much more. The Phillies not only get an additional $24M to work with, they also get a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in Aaron Rowand. Rowand looks like he could be a 20HR / 20SB guy who could fill in the second spot in the order.
Even though Thome is off to the White Sox, the Phillies still have the sense that they are one of the elite teams in the N.L. and are just a couple of pieces away from beating out the Atlanta Braves.
Prior to Thome's arrival in Philadelphia, winning was a rare accomplishment for the Phillies, with Thome's departure from Philadelphia, winning is now an expectation for Phillies fans. While many factors were involved in Philadelphia's renaissance at the turn of the century, perhaps none were as important as bringing Jim Thome to town.
Thome is a great player, a great clubhouse guy and an all around great guy. His time in Philadelphia was short, but his story with the Phillies meant much more to this team than the left-handed power he brought to the field each day.
Overture
Prior to 2002, the Phillies were a team in search of an identity. With Scott Rolen's ascention to an elite player, Pat Burrell's arrival on the scene, and Bobby Abreu's emergence they had a fearsome 1-2-3 punch in the middle of the order. However, Rolen became a poison pill in the clubhouse, calling out the team as not being committed to winning, and finally turning down a long-term contract, forcing the Phillies to trade him to St. Louis. Prior to Rolen's fallout, the Phillies seemed to be moving in the right direction to become a contender, perhaps just a few more pieces away from contention. Now, the Phillies were missing a force in the middle of their lineup and searching for an answer.
With a new stadium being built, the Phillies knew they would be flush with money and were finally willing to spend the amount of money needed to field a team worthy of knocking off the Atlanta Braves and making a run at the World Series. The problem was, what moves to make.
Act I
Right around Thanksgiving of 2002, the Phillies started to make some bold moves to improve the team. Jim Thome signs an $85 million deal and thus changes the attitude of a ball club that was all too accustomed to loosing over it's 120 plus year history. The signing of Thome -- the largest contract in Phillies history -- showed everyone in baseball that Philadelphia was serious about fielding a winning team.
Thome rode into town with great fan fare, like a Roman general returning from a successful campaign against the Saxsons. Thome was instantly a hit with Phillies fans before playing a single game. Thome answered the fan fare by hitting 89 HR in his first 2 seasons and averaging 118 RBI. The Phillies narrowly missed the playoffs each year, and seemed just a few spare parts away from getting over the top.
Act II
2005 started out poorly for Thome with a back injury that limited his time in the lineup and effected his hitting. The Phillies came out of the gates slowly and looked like they were going to be burried in the competitive N.L. East. The fans started to boo and some of it was directed at Jim Thome. The season wore on and the Phillies clawed their way back into the division lead and had Thome coming back from the D.L. and all seemed to be good in the world again.
However, Thome's return weighed on the team as it was clear he wasn't the powerful force that he had been in 2003-04. The boos from the fans intensified. Thome finally hit the D.L. again on July 1 with elbow tendenitis. Once Thome went down, the Phillies called up young slugger Ryan Howard. A couple weeks after Howard arrived on the scene, the Phillies seemed to have new life and new hope for the post-season. With every game Howard continued clubbing the balls out of the ballpark and Thome started slipping to the back of fans' minds.
Thome finally shut his season down in August, electing to have elbow surgery, but the fans hardly noticed, his season ended producing just .207 with 7HR and 30RBI in 193AB. But the Phillies were in the thick of a playoff race and everyone knew that Ryan Howard was the key to getting them over the top. Howard did his part by hitting 22HR and 63RBI in just over half a season, including several key blasts to win games late in the season. Unfortunately, the Phillies finished the season 2 games behind the Braves and 1 Game behind the Astros for the Wild Card.
Act III
The Phillies enter the 2005 post-season with a new general manager, a budget that isn't allowed to expand much and several key personell questions.
The key questions, in no particular order:
- Who will be next year's closer?
- Who will play center field?
- How will the pitching staff be constructed after Lieber, Myers and Lidle?
- Who will play first base?
With the trade of Thome, Pat Gillick has answered two of those questions. First base is now Ryan Howard's domain, and hopefully will be for the next 15 years and 500 Home Runs. While the Phillies probably would have been satisfied with the White Sox giving up a couple of prospects and taking on close to half of Thome's remaining contract of $46M, the White Sox came up with much more. The Phillies not only get an additional $24M to work with, they also get a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in Aaron Rowand. Rowand looks like he could be a 20HR / 20SB guy who could fill in the second spot in the order.
Even though Thome is off to the White Sox, the Phillies still have the sense that they are one of the elite teams in the N.L. and are just a couple of pieces away from beating out the Atlanta Braves.
Prior to Thome's arrival in Philadelphia, winning was a rare accomplishment for the Phillies, with Thome's departure from Philadelphia, winning is now an expectation for Phillies fans. While many factors were involved in Philadelphia's renaissance at the turn of the century, perhaps none were as important as bringing Jim Thome to town.
02 November 2005
Mr. Post Season Arives in Philly
The Phillies announced that Pat Gillick is the man to replace Ed Wade as the GM for the team. Pat Gillick comes to Philadelphia with a pedigree of winning and for making the teams he heads playoff contenders. In a mere 9 years as a GM, Gillick boasts 3 different teams with playoff appearances, the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners.
Even more impressive is the fact that the Blue Jays won back-to-back World Series, in '92 and '93 (sigh). He was also at the helm when the Mariners won a record setting 116 regular season games.
What more could Phillies fans ask for than a guy who has proven himself over and over again. Hopefully he still has the fire left to get the Phillies over the hump. Gillick did say "I still have the passion and want the competitve edge." Interestingly enough, he also indirectly praised the job Ed Wade had done saying "I'm very honored to be a part of the Phillies, an outstanding franchise...There is a great foundation." Before Ed Wade, nobody would have mistaken the Phillies as an "outstanding franchise".
Congratulations to David Montgomery for commiting to Gillick before the Dodgers and Red Sox had a chance to snare him. The Dodgers had the chance last year and went with Paul DePodesta, who was promptly fired this year. Think that team is regretting not getting Gillick last year? The Red Sox are still dealing with the fact that Kid Theo is leaving, so they didn't have time to get into the fray.
Now the fun begins for Gillick and Phillies fans, dealing with Wagner and Urbina, figuring out what to do with Ryan Howard's bat and putting together the starting rotation. It should be an interesting off-season in Philly once again.
Random Thoughts
Way to go Gold Glove Bobby Abreu. It's about time you get the recognition you deserve as the cornerstone of the Phillies...The free agent list for the Phillies now includes Wagner, Urbina, Pratt, Terry Adams, Michael Tucker and Ramon Martinez. My vote is to sign Wagner and Urbina, don't even bother with Adams, Tucker and Martinez. Pratt is an interesting situation given his success last year. The Phillies really need to start grooming Lieberthal's replacement, so it would be a good opportunity to bring up Ruiz or Jaramillo to give them some big league experience. On the other hand, Pratt worked well with 17 game winner Jon Lieber, so it would be a shame to ruin that chemistry...Lofton hasn't filed for free-agency yet, so here's to hoping his .400+ OBP stays with the Phillies. That was one heck of a platoon with Jason Michaels, I for one am ready to see that again.
Even more impressive is the fact that the Blue Jays won back-to-back World Series, in '92 and '93 (sigh). He was also at the helm when the Mariners won a record setting 116 regular season games.
What more could Phillies fans ask for than a guy who has proven himself over and over again. Hopefully he still has the fire left to get the Phillies over the hump. Gillick did say "I still have the passion and want the competitve edge." Interestingly enough, he also indirectly praised the job Ed Wade had done saying "I'm very honored to be a part of the Phillies, an outstanding franchise...There is a great foundation." Before Ed Wade, nobody would have mistaken the Phillies as an "outstanding franchise".
Congratulations to David Montgomery for commiting to Gillick before the Dodgers and Red Sox had a chance to snare him. The Dodgers had the chance last year and went with Paul DePodesta, who was promptly fired this year. Think that team is regretting not getting Gillick last year? The Red Sox are still dealing with the fact that Kid Theo is leaving, so they didn't have time to get into the fray.
Now the fun begins for Gillick and Phillies fans, dealing with Wagner and Urbina, figuring out what to do with Ryan Howard's bat and putting together the starting rotation. It should be an interesting off-season in Philly once again.
Random Thoughts
Way to go Gold Glove Bobby Abreu. It's about time you get the recognition you deserve as the cornerstone of the Phillies...The free agent list for the Phillies now includes Wagner, Urbina, Pratt, Terry Adams, Michael Tucker and Ramon Martinez. My vote is to sign Wagner and Urbina, don't even bother with Adams, Tucker and Martinez. Pratt is an interesting situation given his success last year. The Phillies really need to start grooming Lieberthal's replacement, so it would be a good opportunity to bring up Ruiz or Jaramillo to give them some big league experience. On the other hand, Pratt worked well with 17 game winner Jon Lieber, so it would be a shame to ruin that chemistry...Lofton hasn't filed for free-agency yet, so here's to hoping his .400+ OBP stays with the Phillies. That was one heck of a platoon with Jason Michaels, I for one am ready to see that again.
30 October 2005
The Best News!
It's been awhile since my last blog post. As a die-hard Phillies fan, I've been as frustrated about the end of the season as anyone. With so many postives going for the team -- Rollins hitting streak, a late season run against tough divisional matchups, the growing team chemistry, and a schedule advantage against the Astros -- it was tough to watch the season end on an error by the Cubs gold-glove shortstop.
Since then, there has been much to talk about in Phillies Nation -- Ed Wade's dismissal, the search for a new general manager, Wagner's decision to test free-agency -- but the extended frustration didn't make it seem worth talking about yet.
Now, the Phillies have received about the best news they could hope for, and it has nothing to do with the Phillies organization. Leo Mazzone is no longer the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves. To the lay-fan, this may not sound like much news to consider, but for those of us who follow the game intently, we know what this means.
Leo Mazzone along with Bobby Cox's arrival in Atlanta back in the early 1990's started one of the most amazing runs in pro-sports history -- a 15 year Division Title streak. Clearly the pitching dynasty that Mazzone lead was a huge key to that run. Just three times from 1992-2005 did the Braves not produce the best or second-best ERA in the Majors. That's pitching domination plain and simple. Now Mazzone moves along to the Baltimore Orioles to work his magic for one of the majors worst pitching staffs season in and season out.
Does this mean we can count the Braves out next year? Certainly not. Until someone beats the Braves, they have to be considered the favorite to win the division. However, without Mazzone, the team should begin to loose their grip on the best pitching staff in baseball. Now lets hope the Braves loose Furcal and really put themselves into a tough situation.
Random Thoughts
Ed Wade's dismissal doesn't come as a surprise, but was he really as bad as Phillies fans make him out to be? No, he didn't construct a team that could make it to the post-season, and he did a poor job at making trade deadline moves, but he leaves a team that is as successful as Philadelphia has seen since the late 70's. Considering the team has finished with a winning record the past 3 years and 4 of the past 5, this organization has turned a historic corner it would seem. The Phillies also boast one of the most fertile farm systems in baseball over recent years, which is a direct result of what Wade built. Wade leaves the Phillies in much better shape than he found them, but he couldn't beat the tandem of Mazzone and Cox and has become the scape goat...The Phillies are interviewing several new GM candidates and this person will be charged with getting the team over the 90 win hump and into the post-season. One name that is interesting is Houston's GM Gerry Hunsicker. He's an interesting choice since his first duty as the Phillies GM could be re-signing Billy Wagner. Wagner is the pitcher he traded to the Phillies because of payroll issues, only to turn around and sign Petitte, Clemens and then Beltran. Wagner hasn't had kind words for his old ballclub, and Hunsicker is the reason. Makes for an interesting situation...Speaking of Wagner and his choice to test free-agency, if we take the fireballing pitcher at his word, he really wants to stay in Philadelphia, and is just testing the waters know his true value. He is likely to find out that a 3 year 27 Million dollar offer is about as good as it gets. If last year was an indication, teams seem to be unwilling to sign a top pitcher for more than 7 Million per year, so the 10 Million Wagner is seeking may be out of the range of feasibility for other clubs. Can't blame the guy for testing the waters, and definitely hope to see him in the bullpen next year as a key component to the Phillies playoff run...how sad was it to watch the Padres in the playoffs knowing that the Phillies were a much better team. With the way the Cardinals were pitching and the Astros were hitting, if the Phillies had been in the place of the Padres, you just have to wonder what if? Ok, it's time to let last season go and start thinking about the next...Congrats to my home town White Sox, it was an amazing run. Wanna play the Phillies to see who is really the best team? Ok, this time I really mean it, time to let last season go.
Since then, there has been much to talk about in Phillies Nation -- Ed Wade's dismissal, the search for a new general manager, Wagner's decision to test free-agency -- but the extended frustration didn't make it seem worth talking about yet.
Now, the Phillies have received about the best news they could hope for, and it has nothing to do with the Phillies organization. Leo Mazzone is no longer the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves. To the lay-fan, this may not sound like much news to consider, but for those of us who follow the game intently, we know what this means.
Leo Mazzone along with Bobby Cox's arrival in Atlanta back in the early 1990's started one of the most amazing runs in pro-sports history -- a 15 year Division Title streak. Clearly the pitching dynasty that Mazzone lead was a huge key to that run. Just three times from 1992-2005 did the Braves not produce the best or second-best ERA in the Majors. That's pitching domination plain and simple. Now Mazzone moves along to the Baltimore Orioles to work his magic for one of the majors worst pitching staffs season in and season out.
Does this mean we can count the Braves out next year? Certainly not. Until someone beats the Braves, they have to be considered the favorite to win the division. However, without Mazzone, the team should begin to loose their grip on the best pitching staff in baseball. Now lets hope the Braves loose Furcal and really put themselves into a tough situation.
Random Thoughts
Ed Wade's dismissal doesn't come as a surprise, but was he really as bad as Phillies fans make him out to be? No, he didn't construct a team that could make it to the post-season, and he did a poor job at making trade deadline moves, but he leaves a team that is as successful as Philadelphia has seen since the late 70's. Considering the team has finished with a winning record the past 3 years and 4 of the past 5, this organization has turned a historic corner it would seem. The Phillies also boast one of the most fertile farm systems in baseball over recent years, which is a direct result of what Wade built. Wade leaves the Phillies in much better shape than he found them, but he couldn't beat the tandem of Mazzone and Cox and has become the scape goat...The Phillies are interviewing several new GM candidates and this person will be charged with getting the team over the 90 win hump and into the post-season. One name that is interesting is Houston's GM Gerry Hunsicker. He's an interesting choice since his first duty as the Phillies GM could be re-signing Billy Wagner. Wagner is the pitcher he traded to the Phillies because of payroll issues, only to turn around and sign Petitte, Clemens and then Beltran. Wagner hasn't had kind words for his old ballclub, and Hunsicker is the reason. Makes for an interesting situation...Speaking of Wagner and his choice to test free-agency, if we take the fireballing pitcher at his word, he really wants to stay in Philadelphia, and is just testing the waters know his true value. He is likely to find out that a 3 year 27 Million dollar offer is about as good as it gets. If last year was an indication, teams seem to be unwilling to sign a top pitcher for more than 7 Million per year, so the 10 Million Wagner is seeking may be out of the range of feasibility for other clubs. Can't blame the guy for testing the waters, and definitely hope to see him in the bullpen next year as a key component to the Phillies playoff run...how sad was it to watch the Padres in the playoffs knowing that the Phillies were a much better team. With the way the Cardinals were pitching and the Astros were hitting, if the Phillies had been in the place of the Padres, you just have to wonder what if? Ok, it's time to let last season go and start thinking about the next...Congrats to my home town White Sox, it was an amazing run. Wanna play the Phillies to see who is really the best team? Ok, this time I really mean it, time to let last season go.
24 September 2005
The Stars are Aligning
Is there a higher power at work to get the Phillies into the playoffs this year? Or, is this higher power setting up Phillies fans for a tragic ending?
The Storm
After being swept at home by the Wild Card leading Astros September 5-7, dropping out of the Wild Card lead and embarking on the toughest stretch of games of the season, the Phillies looked like they might be in some real trouble.
With the season on the line, the Phillies rose to the task and took 4 of 6 games from both the Marlins and the Braves. One of those games was a miraculous come from behind win in the ninth inning against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins. That win is even more amazing considering it came against this year's leading Cy Young candidate in the 9th inning of a 3 hit shutout. While it was astounding that the Phillies scored 10 runs in that 9th inning, it is equally astounding given the fact that prior to that game the Phillies had only come from behind after trailing in the 8th inning or later to win 1 game this year. That's right, only a single win the entire year in that situation.
However, the magic continued against the Braves last Wednesday, after Atlanta had come back to tie the game 6-6 and send it to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Ryan Howard came up and hit his first extra-base hit against a left-handed pitcher. That hit was a grand slam that stole the game from the Braves. The next day, Tim Hudson had a shutout working into the 8th innning. In an inexplicable move, Bobby Cox let Hudson hit in the bottom of the 8th with a runner on 3rd base and only 1 out. The Phillies made it out of the inning without giving up a run. Hudson who was well over the 100 pitch mark (116 I think) and fatigued, came out in the 9th and promptly gave up 4 runs to loose the game. That's the first gift Bobby Cox has ever given the Phillies, even the Braves fans were booing him for that decision.
After all of that, you would think the Phillies had used up all of their magic. And, coming into the 9th inning against the Reds last night with a chance to move a game closer to the Astros, the thrill looked to be gone. The Reds had come back from a 6-1 deficit and taken a 10-6 lead heading into the 9th. Remember, the Phillies have only come back to win twice (after the Marlins) this year in this sort of situation, so things looked bleak. However, that's when the hitting started and the Phillies erupted for a 5 run 9th inning to take the game 11-10.
Twice in one week? Crayziness you say? Certainly. So maybe a higher power is at work here. This sort of stuff never happens to the Phillies, and this late in the season during a playoff run to boot.
Stars Aligning
Looking forward, how do the Phillies chances look now? The often discussed schedule disadvantage the Phillies had on September 9th has now turned into a great advantage today. The Phillies finish up the season at the Reds, home against the Mets and at the struggling Nationals. The Astros finish up the season at a very tough Cubs team, at the Cardinals, and the finale at home against the same tough Cubs team. The Cubs will be the Phillies fan's second favorite team the rest of the way.
Aligned star one...facing the Cubs is significant because Greg Maddux is trying to win 15 games for the 18th straight year, already a major league record. He currently has 13 wins, and the Cubs are giving him 2 more starts, the first against Pittsburgh, and if he wins that game, the second start would be the season finale against the Astros. Maddux is very determined to win right now and has a 2.53 ERA and 3 wins in his 5 September starts.
Star two...Roger Clemens is also hurting and his next start is uncertain. He was supposed to oppose Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs today, but is bothered by a strained hamstring, forcing the Astros to start Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio, the former Phillies farm hand that was traded as part of the deal for Billy Wagner, could help the Phillies after all by loosing today to the Cubs. Of course, as I write this, the Cubs have given up 2 runs in the top of the first, that's alright though, the stars are aligned in the Phillies favor, and not the star of the Astros (we hope).
Star three...if the Phillies should end up the season tied with the Astros, there would be a one game playoff in Philadelphia. That's significant since the Phillies would be making a short trip back from Washington while the Astros would have to make a long trip in from Houston. Not to mention the home field advantage.
Star four...the Phillis head home to play the Mets after the Reds series. As reported by NY Newsday, the Mets are considering shutting Pedro Martinez down for the remainder of the season, rather than lead off the series against the Phillies.
Star five...the Nationals have gone to a 4 man rotation, meaning that Livan Hernandez's last start of the year should be in their final game against the Marlins, and he would miss the final series against the Phillies entirely.
All the Phillies need to do is win one more game than the Astros and find themselves with the Wild Card lead. Win 2 more than the Astros and the Phillies can avoid a one game playoff. The stars are indeed aligned, and this season is squarely in the Phillies hands. It should be a phantastic phinish to the season.
Random Thoughts
Thank the stars for Ryan Howard. This kid should defnitely win the Roookie of the Year Award. His stats are there 20HR / 56RBI / .290 BA, (leading rookies in HR and RBI with only half a season played) but his impact on the team is what should win it for him. Without Howard, the Phillies would be playing for next year right now. Message to Phillies management -- You have to keep Howard around for next year and beyond...Props to Jon Leiber for pitching like an ace this late in the year, and for dominating Atlanta in his career. Leiber's last 8 games against Atlanta 1.83ERA / .229BAA...Ryan Madson is really struggling lately, that Howard grand slam and last night's heroics wouldn't have been necessary if Madson had pitched scoreless innings both those games. Maybe the Phillies should be using Aaron Fultz in Madson's spot right now...David Bell is really making up for his early season misery, a grand slam last week, and a game winning 2 run shot last night. We didn't mean everything we said about you before David. Keep up the good work...JRoll is out of sight right now with a 28 game hitting streak. Hopefully it is finally getting through to Rollins -- Get on base, use your speed, and you will score with the lineup the Phillies have...Abreu continues to impress by playing through multiple injuries and still producing. He is a true gamer and the Phillies are lucky to have him.
The Storm
After being swept at home by the Wild Card leading Astros September 5-7, dropping out of the Wild Card lead and embarking on the toughest stretch of games of the season, the Phillies looked like they might be in some real trouble.
With the season on the line, the Phillies rose to the task and took 4 of 6 games from both the Marlins and the Braves. One of those games was a miraculous come from behind win in the ninth inning against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins. That win is even more amazing considering it came against this year's leading Cy Young candidate in the 9th inning of a 3 hit shutout. While it was astounding that the Phillies scored 10 runs in that 9th inning, it is equally astounding given the fact that prior to that game the Phillies had only come from behind after trailing in the 8th inning or later to win 1 game this year. That's right, only a single win the entire year in that situation.
However, the magic continued against the Braves last Wednesday, after Atlanta had come back to tie the game 6-6 and send it to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Ryan Howard came up and hit his first extra-base hit against a left-handed pitcher. That hit was a grand slam that stole the game from the Braves. The next day, Tim Hudson had a shutout working into the 8th innning. In an inexplicable move, Bobby Cox let Hudson hit in the bottom of the 8th with a runner on 3rd base and only 1 out. The Phillies made it out of the inning without giving up a run. Hudson who was well over the 100 pitch mark (116 I think) and fatigued, came out in the 9th and promptly gave up 4 runs to loose the game. That's the first gift Bobby Cox has ever given the Phillies, even the Braves fans were booing him for that decision.
After all of that, you would think the Phillies had used up all of their magic. And, coming into the 9th inning against the Reds last night with a chance to move a game closer to the Astros, the thrill looked to be gone. The Reds had come back from a 6-1 deficit and taken a 10-6 lead heading into the 9th. Remember, the Phillies have only come back to win twice (after the Marlins) this year in this sort of situation, so things looked bleak. However, that's when the hitting started and the Phillies erupted for a 5 run 9th inning to take the game 11-10.
Twice in one week? Crayziness you say? Certainly. So maybe a higher power is at work here. This sort of stuff never happens to the Phillies, and this late in the season during a playoff run to boot.
Stars Aligning
Looking forward, how do the Phillies chances look now? The often discussed schedule disadvantage the Phillies had on September 9th has now turned into a great advantage today. The Phillies finish up the season at the Reds, home against the Mets and at the struggling Nationals. The Astros finish up the season at a very tough Cubs team, at the Cardinals, and the finale at home against the same tough Cubs team. The Cubs will be the Phillies fan's second favorite team the rest of the way.
Aligned star one...facing the Cubs is significant because Greg Maddux is trying to win 15 games for the 18th straight year, already a major league record. He currently has 13 wins, and the Cubs are giving him 2 more starts, the first against Pittsburgh, and if he wins that game, the second start would be the season finale against the Astros. Maddux is very determined to win right now and has a 2.53 ERA and 3 wins in his 5 September starts.
Star two...Roger Clemens is also hurting and his next start is uncertain. He was supposed to oppose Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs today, but is bothered by a strained hamstring, forcing the Astros to start Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio, the former Phillies farm hand that was traded as part of the deal for Billy Wagner, could help the Phillies after all by loosing today to the Cubs. Of course, as I write this, the Cubs have given up 2 runs in the top of the first, that's alright though, the stars are aligned in the Phillies favor, and not the star of the Astros (we hope).
Star three...if the Phillies should end up the season tied with the Astros, there would be a one game playoff in Philadelphia. That's significant since the Phillies would be making a short trip back from Washington while the Astros would have to make a long trip in from Houston. Not to mention the home field advantage.
Star four...the Phillis head home to play the Mets after the Reds series. As reported by NY Newsday, the Mets are considering shutting Pedro Martinez down for the remainder of the season, rather than lead off the series against the Phillies.
Star five...the Nationals have gone to a 4 man rotation, meaning that Livan Hernandez's last start of the year should be in their final game against the Marlins, and he would miss the final series against the Phillies entirely.
All the Phillies need to do is win one more game than the Astros and find themselves with the Wild Card lead. Win 2 more than the Astros and the Phillies can avoid a one game playoff. The stars are indeed aligned, and this season is squarely in the Phillies hands. It should be a phantastic phinish to the season.
Random Thoughts
Thank the stars for Ryan Howard. This kid should defnitely win the Roookie of the Year Award. His stats are there 20HR / 56RBI / .290 BA, (leading rookies in HR and RBI with only half a season played) but his impact on the team is what should win it for him. Without Howard, the Phillies would be playing for next year right now. Message to Phillies management -- You have to keep Howard around for next year and beyond...Props to Jon Leiber for pitching like an ace this late in the year, and for dominating Atlanta in his career. Leiber's last 8 games against Atlanta 1.83ERA / .229BAA...Ryan Madson is really struggling lately, that Howard grand slam and last night's heroics wouldn't have been necessary if Madson had pitched scoreless innings both those games. Maybe the Phillies should be using Aaron Fultz in Madson's spot right now...David Bell is really making up for his early season misery, a grand slam last week, and a game winning 2 run shot last night. We didn't mean everything we said about you before David. Keep up the good work...JRoll is out of sight right now with a 28 game hitting streak. Hopefully it is finally getting through to Rollins -- Get on base, use your speed, and you will score with the lineup the Phillies have...Abreu continues to impress by playing through multiple injuries and still producing. He is a true gamer and the Phillies are lucky to have him.
11 September 2005
Window of Opportunity Still Open
It has been tough to write about the Phillies this month, with the heart-wrenching losses they have endured against key foes in the Wild Card race. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Phillies were in control of their destiny..."All we have to do is win games" was the battle cry, and heading into key games against all Wild Card contending teams, hopes were running high.
The first series against the Mets started out dubious, with a 4-6 loss, the Phillies 3rd in a row, and things were looking like they might fall apart. But, the team pulled through to win the series, and started off with a win against the Nationals. Now, things were looking good, fans were wondering how many games up on the Astros we could be if the team were to win the series against the Nationals and take the series against the Astros. 2, maybe 3 or possibly a 4 game lead was likely. And, what about the division leading Braves, there was a real possibility of getting with in a couple of games of Atlanta.
Then, the worst-case scenario happened, the Phillies drop 5 in a row, including a 3 game sweep by the Astros.
Deja-vu all over again?
It certainly was beginning to feel like last year when the Phillies were starting to make a charge in the division and had just come off of a sweep (the Met's if I recall) and headed in to play a floundering Astros team. The Phillies were promptly swept, then went out and sweep a 4 game series against the Rockies, when they faced off against the Astros again. Of course, the Phillies were swept a second time and never really recovered to challenge for the division or the Wild Card again. Last year, the damage was done by Carlos Beltran. He actually damaged more than the Phillies last year in his heroic charge to within a game of the World Series. This year, the Astros are doing the damage with their starting pitching, and good pitching always seems to shut down the Phillies. In two years, the Phillies are 0-12 against the Astros, and at key points in the year, hopefully they will be on the early part of the Phillies schedule next year.
The Pesky Fish
Coming into the Malins series, the Phillies were facing a desparate situation and had to win the series, and really needed to sweep the fish to stay in the race. Goal accomplished in the 12-5 drubbing of the first game, and things were really looking up last night with Brett Meyers on the hill and the Phillies leading the game late, when another one of those heart-wrenching losses occured. "Not again" you were saying, "it couldn't possibly be another one-run loss." Yep, that's what happened, the Phillies 4th one-run loss in the past 8 games.
Coming into the final game of the series, the Phillies were in a must-win situation. Lose this game and the team falls 3 games behind the fish and further behind the Astros. Luckily, the bats came alive and the game turned into an 11-1 laugher. With the Astros dropping their game to the Breweres, the Phillies have managed to keep within 1 1/2 games of the Wild Card leading Astros. Winning 2 was great, but the Phillies really should have swept, especially when none of the Marlin's starters in the series made it past the 3rd inning.
Looking Ahead
The next week of games is crucial to deciding the Phillies post-season fate. The Braves come to town for 3 games, then the Phillies head out to Florida and Atlanta. First, the good news, the Wild Card race is essentially down to the Astros, Marlins and Phillies. The Astros and Marlins play each other, so one of the teams will take a hit (hopefully thats the Astros if we know what's good for us).
Now the bad news...it looks like Vincente Padilla could be done for the season. Prior to the All-Star break, you might have said "Who cares?". But since the break, Padilla has been on fire and pitching up to his often cited "potential". He is definitely being skipped tomorrow, but hopefully he can pitch his final 3 turns in the rotation. Robinson Tejeda is also hurting, meaning the Phillies will be leaning on Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd to turn in some strong innings. This creates some tough match-ups agains the Braves:
Monday: Brito vs. Hudson
Tuesday: Floyd vs. Thompson
Wednesday: Lidle vs. Ramirez
Hudson is one of the Brave's aces and Floyd has a 20.25 ERA against Atlanta. Yes, the odds are stacked agains the team heare, at least the Phillies won't have to tangle with John Smoltz.
The goal for the next 3 series is to win each of them some-how, some-way. Yes, that's the goal of any series played, but if the Phillies can take 2 out of 3 against the Braves-Marlins-Braves, then their post-season chances will look a lot brighter. Drop three-in-a-row again, and it will be time to start thinking about next season.
The window of opportunity is still open, and if the Phillies can just win, they will be in control of their destiny.
Random Thoughts
Kudos to Jimmy Rollins for putting together a 17 game hitting streak. As everyone knows, as Rollins OBP goes, so does the Phillies offense, and he is capable of maintaining a hot streak through the remainder of the season, which would be good news to the club...Double kudos to Ryan Howard for doing his best Jim Thome impersonation. This kid is looking like the real deal, posting 16HR / 44BI / .286 in 69 games this year. That projects out to 38 HR / 103 BI. If he can learn how to hit lefties, Howard could be a mainstay for a long time. So what should the Phillies do about Thome? That's a topic for another time...As long as we are handing out kudos, let's pass some along to the starting pitching. Lieber has been lights-out lately, Padilla has been great and Meyers has kept up his quality starts, all leading to close games and solid innings pitched, lessening the stress on the bullpen.
The first series against the Mets started out dubious, with a 4-6 loss, the Phillies 3rd in a row, and things were looking like they might fall apart. But, the team pulled through to win the series, and started off with a win against the Nationals. Now, things were looking good, fans were wondering how many games up on the Astros we could be if the team were to win the series against the Nationals and take the series against the Astros. 2, maybe 3 or possibly a 4 game lead was likely. And, what about the division leading Braves, there was a real possibility of getting with in a couple of games of Atlanta.
Then, the worst-case scenario happened, the Phillies drop 5 in a row, including a 3 game sweep by the Astros.
Deja-vu all over again?
It certainly was beginning to feel like last year when the Phillies were starting to make a charge in the division and had just come off of a sweep (the Met's if I recall) and headed in to play a floundering Astros team. The Phillies were promptly swept, then went out and sweep a 4 game series against the Rockies, when they faced off against the Astros again. Of course, the Phillies were swept a second time and never really recovered to challenge for the division or the Wild Card again. Last year, the damage was done by Carlos Beltran. He actually damaged more than the Phillies last year in his heroic charge to within a game of the World Series. This year, the Astros are doing the damage with their starting pitching, and good pitching always seems to shut down the Phillies. In two years, the Phillies are 0-12 against the Astros, and at key points in the year, hopefully they will be on the early part of the Phillies schedule next year.
The Pesky Fish
Coming into the Malins series, the Phillies were facing a desparate situation and had to win the series, and really needed to sweep the fish to stay in the race. Goal accomplished in the 12-5 drubbing of the first game, and things were really looking up last night with Brett Meyers on the hill and the Phillies leading the game late, when another one of those heart-wrenching losses occured. "Not again" you were saying, "it couldn't possibly be another one-run loss." Yep, that's what happened, the Phillies 4th one-run loss in the past 8 games.
Coming into the final game of the series, the Phillies were in a must-win situation. Lose this game and the team falls 3 games behind the fish and further behind the Astros. Luckily, the bats came alive and the game turned into an 11-1 laugher. With the Astros dropping their game to the Breweres, the Phillies have managed to keep within 1 1/2 games of the Wild Card leading Astros. Winning 2 was great, but the Phillies really should have swept, especially when none of the Marlin's starters in the series made it past the 3rd inning.
Looking Ahead
The next week of games is crucial to deciding the Phillies post-season fate. The Braves come to town for 3 games, then the Phillies head out to Florida and Atlanta. First, the good news, the Wild Card race is essentially down to the Astros, Marlins and Phillies. The Astros and Marlins play each other, so one of the teams will take a hit (hopefully thats the Astros if we know what's good for us).
Now the bad news...it looks like Vincente Padilla could be done for the season. Prior to the All-Star break, you might have said "Who cares?". But since the break, Padilla has been on fire and pitching up to his often cited "potential". He is definitely being skipped tomorrow, but hopefully he can pitch his final 3 turns in the rotation. Robinson Tejeda is also hurting, meaning the Phillies will be leaning on Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd to turn in some strong innings. This creates some tough match-ups agains the Braves:
Monday: Brito vs. Hudson
Tuesday: Floyd vs. Thompson
Wednesday: Lidle vs. Ramirez
Hudson is one of the Brave's aces and Floyd has a 20.25 ERA against Atlanta. Yes, the odds are stacked agains the team heare, at least the Phillies won't have to tangle with John Smoltz.
The goal for the next 3 series is to win each of them some-how, some-way. Yes, that's the goal of any series played, but if the Phillies can take 2 out of 3 against the Braves-Marlins-Braves, then their post-season chances will look a lot brighter. Drop three-in-a-row again, and it will be time to start thinking about next season.
The window of opportunity is still open, and if the Phillies can just win, they will be in control of their destiny.
Random Thoughts
Kudos to Jimmy Rollins for putting together a 17 game hitting streak. As everyone knows, as Rollins OBP goes, so does the Phillies offense, and he is capable of maintaining a hot streak through the remainder of the season, which would be good news to the club...Double kudos to Ryan Howard for doing his best Jim Thome impersonation. This kid is looking like the real deal, posting 16HR / 44BI / .286 in 69 games this year. That projects out to 38 HR / 103 BI. If he can learn how to hit lefties, Howard could be a mainstay for a long time. So what should the Phillies do about Thome? That's a topic for another time...As long as we are handing out kudos, let's pass some along to the starting pitching. Lieber has been lights-out lately, Padilla has been great and Meyers has kept up his quality starts, all leading to close games and solid innings pitched, lessening the stress on the bullpen.
28 August 2005
Please Release Cormier, Please
While watching the Diamondbacks and Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, I was very disturbed with Charlie Manuels choice to use Rheal Cormier.
With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.
Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.
Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.
In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:
Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353
Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."
Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.
The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.
Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.
With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.
Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.
With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.
Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.
Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.
In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:
Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353
Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."
Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.
The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.
Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.
With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.
Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.
22 August 2005
On a Roll, Let's Keep it Going
The September pennant stretch is quickly approaching, and the Phillies have put themselves into the thick of contention. With just 37 games remaining, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in the Wild Card lead and only 3 1/2 games behind the Braves for the N.L. East Division Title.
Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.
After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.
Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.
Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.
Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.
Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.
After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.
Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.
Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.
Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.
11 August 2005
Thome is Done. Does Anyone Care?
Don't take that title the wrong way. Jim Thome has certainly been a dominant force in the middle of the Phillies lineup the past couple of years, averaging 45HR, 118BI, and his production will certainly be missed. The guy is also a favorite among teammates and fans alike, so you can't help but feel bad for Big Jim, knowing that he wants to play and produce as much as anyone else wants him too. But, the Phillies now have to move on knowing that Thome is 99% likely to have season ending surgery. We all wish him the best and hope for a speedy recovery.
Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.
Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA
Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.
Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.
Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.
While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.
The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.
If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.
Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.
Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA
Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.
Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.
Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.
While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.
The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.
If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.
03 August 2005
Handicapping the Atlanta Braves
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.
This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.
The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.
Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.
The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.
The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.
The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.
The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.
The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.
This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.
The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.
Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.
The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.
The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.
The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.
The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.
The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?
02 August 2005
Handicapping the Washington Nationals
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.
Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.
Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.
Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.
The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.
With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.
The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.
The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.
01 August 2005
Handicapping the New York Mets
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.
At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.
Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.
Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.
Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead
David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.
The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.
The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.
At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.
Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.
Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.
Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead
David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.
The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.
The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.
29 July 2005
Handicapping the Florida Marlins
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.
As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.
Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.
The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.
The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.
The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.
The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)
The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.
As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.
Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.
The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.
The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.
The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.
The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.
28 July 2005
Handicapping the Chicago Cubs
We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)
The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.
Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.
Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.
With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.
Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).
The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.
The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.
The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.
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