Please Release Cormier, Please

While watching the Diamondbacks and Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, I was very disturbed with Charlie Manuels choice to use Rheal Cormier.

With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.

Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.

Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.

In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:

Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353

Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."

Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.

The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.

Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.

With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.


Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.

On a Roll, Let's Keep it Going

The September pennant stretch is quickly approaching, and the Phillies have put themselves into the thick of contention. With just 37 games remaining, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in the Wild Card lead and only 3 1/2 games behind the Braves for the N.L. East Division Title.

Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.

After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.

Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.

Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.


Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.

Thome is Done. Does Anyone Care?

Don't take that title the wrong way. Jim Thome has certainly been a dominant force in the middle of the Phillies lineup the past couple of years, averaging 45HR, 118BI, and his production will certainly be missed. The guy is also a favorite among teammates and fans alike, so you can't help but feel bad for Big Jim, knowing that he wants to play and produce as much as anyone else wants him too. But, the Phillies now have to move on knowing that Thome is 99% likely to have season ending surgery. We all wish him the best and hope for a speedy recovery.


Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.

Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA

Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.

Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.


Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.

While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.

The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.

If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.

Handicapping the Atlanta Braves

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves


The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.

This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.

The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.


Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.

The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.

The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.

The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.


The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.


The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?

Handicapping the Washington Nationals

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)


The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.

Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.


Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.

Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.

The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.

With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.


The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.


The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.

Handicapping the New York Mets

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)


The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.

At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.

Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.

Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.


Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead

David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.

The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.


The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.


The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.

Handicapping the Florida Marlins

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)

The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.

As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.

Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.

The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.

The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.

The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.

The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.

Handicapping the Chicago Cubs

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.

Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.

Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.

With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.

Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).

The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.

The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.

The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.

Handicapping the Milwaukee Brewers

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.

Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July

And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague

And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games

All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.

Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.

The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.

The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.

One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.

So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.

The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?

The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.

Handicapping the Arizona Diamondbacks

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.

Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).

The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.

The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.

The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".

The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.

Handicapping the Pennant Race

With 99 games in the books and the Phillies 5 games over .500, and 3 games out in the N.L. East, the team is solidly in the playoff race. With 2 playoff spots available -- the division title and the wildcard -- let's take a look at the competition.

Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.

The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.

Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.

The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.

Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.

Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.

The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.

The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.

The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.

Worrell Set Free

Tim Worell was traded to the Diamonbacks today for Matt Kata. This appears to be a matter of setting Worrell free from Philadelphia. According to Ed Wade, "He expressed an interest in pitching closer to home and we tried to see if there was a deal out there that could accommodate both him and the club." Looks like the former was satisfied, though it's not apparent how this accommodates the club. The Phillies are paying the rest of Worrell's salary and receive Matt Kata, an infield spare part that doesn't figure into the plans either this year or in the future, with the Phillies infield and bench pretty much set. Unless Kata is part of a another trade package, this seems to be a case of setting Worrell free.

This is an unfortunate turn of events, as Worrell was pitching fairly well since his return. 5 2/3 innings pitched allowing 2 earned runs, now Worrell has an outside shot at closing for the Diamondbacks. Phillies fans were surely envisioning him returning to form and becoming an important part of the bullpen in a playoff race.

Does this signal the start of selling season for the Phillies? Let's hope not as the team is only 5 games out of the division and the wildcard race. Next up we will preview the wildcard contenders to see how the Phillies stack up.

Streaking Again

The Phillies have just finished off the Florida Marlins to take 3 out of 4 games from the fish. This marks their second straight series win after taking 2 out of 3 from the Washington Nationals or 5-2 the last 2 series. This after a going 7-15 since June 14.

The Phillies are a streaky team.
For better, or worse, this is how the team is constructed. With the pleathora of home runs that the Bank allows, the Phillies tend to swing for the fences more than most, resulting in a large number of team strike outs. Add to this a starting staff that can be great at times, but mediocre at others...mix in a lack of patience at the plate from Rollins, and you have a formula for a streaky team. Luckily it has been reported that Rollins is becoming more patient on mlb.com. We shall see, as he goes, generally so does the Phillies offensive attack.

Is a prolonged winning streak on the horizon?
Probably, the triple-A Dodgers are coming to town and look like easy pickings. After that it's San Diego at home and Houston on the road. The Phillies have eaten up the NL West (7-2), and the Astros have lost their last 3, so some the Phillies should win their share. After that the Phillies play a 4 game set against the also triple-A Rockies. It would be surprising if the Phillies don't end up at least 7-5 after this stretch, making an overall 17-7 streak possible. Couple this with the 7-15 streak from June 14 - July 7 and the team would be a combined 24-22 and 5 games over .500. Still not a wonderful record overall, but good enough to maintain a solid spot in the wildcard race as well as the division.

Random Thoughts
The Phillies are in second place in the wildcard race, 4 games behind the Braves, quite amazing when you think about how bad they played the month prior to the All-Star break...Are the Braves really going to win the division again? It certainly is set in their favor with Chipper, Hampton and Hudson all back to active duty. Maybe Smoltz and Andrew Jones need to go down for the NL East to hold down the Braves...If the Braves win the division, can the Nationals take the wildcard? Less likely, this team has been way too lucky, see the previous posts, more than likely the Nationals end up in 4th place by the end of the season...Ryan Howard is looking impressive filling in for Thome, hitting 3 homers and knocking in 11 since Jim went down. With the way Tome had been hitting, maybe he should take the time to make sure he is fully healthy before coming back. Howard can hold the fort until then...Speaking of Howard, he is doing a great job of raising his trade value, which could be important for the Phillies landing a top line starter. However, why not keep Howard on the bench, spelling Thome when needed, to provide that all important bench power? That would require a solution for the 5th starter...Rumor has it that Cole Hamels is lighting up the minors and could be on the fast track to the big club, maybe even this year. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to bring him up and see what he can do. And, why not bring up Gavin Floyd again to see if he can get back the magic?...Kudos to Vincente Padilla for answering the call. Apparently he was 1 start away from loosing his spot in the rotation prior to the All-Star Break. Since then, 2-0 with 13 scoreless innings pitched. Hopefully he has figured things out, the club really needs him...Kudos also go to Milt Thompson for teaching Jimmy Rollins the afor mentioned patience at the plate. A .545 on-base percentage and 4 walks this past week is a good start.

The Power of One

One is a powerful number. Sunday the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals by one in the bottom of the 12th inning to move one game closer to the division lead. Atlanta also lost, moving the Phillies one game closer to the wild card position. This game also marked the 4th game in a row that was decided by one run. The Phillies have won 2 and lost 2 of those contests.

What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.

The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.

While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.

Buyers or Sellers

The Phillies limped past the half-way point of the season with a 41-40 record through 81 games, and the annual ritual in baseball is quickly approaching. That's right, it's now just 26 days until the trade deadline and teams will be deciding if they are buyers or sellers over the next couple of weeks.

So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.

First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.

Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.

Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.

No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.

What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.

Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.

Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.

The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."

Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.

Rumblin...Bumblin...Stumblin

It's been difficult to write about the Phillies over the past week, so why not borrow a phrase from Chris Berman to describe the current state of the Phillies. It seems pretty appropriate.

Seriously though, how does a team come off of a 15-2 record from May 25-June 12, then face back-to-back-to-back last place teams and go 3-6? Of course the A's are not in last place, but they had been playing like it. Then to get swept in ugly fashion at home by the Red Sox, and now sporting a 5 game losing streak thanks to the Mets last night. Ouch.

Tonight the Phillies face the last place Mets again, who have taken 3 out of the last 4 from the Phillies, and if they win tonight it will be the Phillies who are once again in last place and potentially back to 7.5 games out of first place. Incidentally, this is the spot they started in when they ran off the winning streak. The only silver lining in this is the fact that they are still over .500. It's an amazing feat to have all of the teams in the division with winning records this late in the season, but not much of a comfort to Phillies fans.

The Phillies have to enter tonight's game with a certain sense of urgency. They have to win now to stay ahead of the Mets and keep from falling further behind the pace of the division. After this series, the Braves come to town, which could be a pivital series for the Phillies this year. It looks like the Braves are once again in position to win the N.L. East, and no one is giving the Nationals much of a chance to stay in first the rest of the way. With the Phillies trailing the Braves by 4 games, this weekend is an opportunity to climb back in this race, or fall out of it.

• What could happen -- the Phillies sweep the Braves putting them 1 game behind


• What can't happen -- the Braves sweep the Phillies and bury us in a pretty deep hole


• What's likely to happen -- a series split that doesn't move the standing much either way...but isn't the drama of a sweep much more interesting?

Hold tight Philly faithful. Enjoy the 4th of July. Eat some hot dogs. Then check back in with the standings next week. That's when we might have a better idea of where the Phillies are headed this year.

Where's the All Star Support?

Bobby Abreu is solidly in 3rd place on the All-Star ballot among National League outfielders, and Pat Burrell is 8th, but beyond those 2, not another Phillies player is even in the top 5 at their position. C'mon Citizen's Banker's, start stuffing those ballot boxes, in-stadium voting ends this Friday. Abreu as the 3rd outfielder? He definitely should be first. We all know how he has carried the team, especially in early May when the Phillies desperately needed a hot bat, and just look at the statistical comparison of the top 3, along with Burrell.

Beltran .268 / 8HR / 33BI / 28R / 1SB
Edmonds .285 / 11HR / 39BI / 35R / 1SB
Abreu .324 / 16HR / 48BI / 50R / 17SB
Burrell .305 / 14HR / 55BI / 28R / 0SB

It's not that Abreu is just leading in every offensive category, he is blowing Beltran and Edmonds away, even Burrell is beating them out in every category, except for that 1 stolen base. With the playoff exposure Beltran got last year and landing in New York, no wonder he is leading the voting, but his numbers this year are paltry, Chase Utley is hitting better -- make that way better.

Speaking of Utley, where's the brotherly love for voting him in at Second. Yeah, Jeff Kent is having a monster year, and has all of those L.A. fans to vote him in, but after that it's Grudzielanek, Biggio, T. Walker, and M. Giles. All of these guys have underwhelming stats. Let's take a look at the Utley - Kent comparison, a popular topic throughout the year.

Kent .291 / 14HR / 53BI / 46R / 4SB
Utley .307 / 10HR / 33BI / 31R / 5SB

Kent has the advantage for sure, but keep in mind that Utley has 62 fewer at bats. Give Chase another 62 at bats and those stat lines will be nearly identical. Utley should at least be second in the balloting here. Maybe Torre will see the talent and select Utley anyway, that's if he doesn't put his own player (Grudzielanek) on the team first.

Then there is the matter of Jimmy Rollins. Yes, he had a slow start to the season, but there just aren't that many good hitting shortstops these days, and the top 5 is a joke. Barmes and Garciaparra are injured for an extensive period of time. Furcal is barely hitting over the Mendoza Line (.221 to be exact). Eckstein at least scores some runs. Izturis at least has the gold glove to support him at the number 1 position. Can't we get Jimmy into the top 3 at least?

All right Phanatics, get out to the ballot box and vote. It hasn't happened early, but can still happen often. Exercise your right to choose.

Hey Hey Tejeda

Robinson Tejeda is making a case for himself as the guy to replace Wolf's spot in the lineup. He blanked the A's for 5 2/3 innings on Friday, earning his first win and extending his scoreless innings streak to 10 2/3 as a starter. Not bad for an emergency fill in.

So, how did Tejeda look? His pitches do have a lot of movement on them and batters seem to have a hard time picking up the location, esentially some nasty stuff. Todd Pratt had this to say about Tejeda "We wanted to hide his power until we needed it in the middle innings...He's got a lively fastball with some movement, and a good changeup, really two changeups, one's more like a split." A good review to be sure. In his 10 2/3 innings Tejeda has only given up 6 hits and has struck out 5, both very good totals.

On the downside, Tejeda is giving up a fair share of free passes. While he only walked one batter on Friday, he did walked 4 in his previous start covering 5 innings, and has 17 total walks in just 20 innings of work this year. It is also important to note that the A's offense is one of the worst in the majors. Not that to diminsh his outing, it was superb, but it is still worth noting. It is rare when a pitcher comes from obscurity to have great success in the majors, but certainly not unheard of. Tejeda could be the starters version of Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez.

What to look for...for Tejeda to keep his spot in the rotation, he will need to cut down on his walk rate and show that he can work deeper into games. At this point he is a 5 inning pitcher, but over the next few starts he is likely to be stretched out to 6, 7 or even 8 innings. This will be a true test of how he can fare at the major league level. Tejeda should be given at least a couple more starts to see if he can keep up the success. If he falters however, the Phillies could turn to Gavin Floyd (yes, he has been struggling in the minors, but likely just needs some confidence), or they will need to make a move for a pitcher out on the market.

Figuring out who will fill Wolf's spot in the rotation the rest of the year is key to continuing the Phillies success, and will continue to be the most important issue to follow over the next few weeks.

Wolf is Toast

The news isn't good for Randy Wolf with the injury to his ulnar collateral ligament (that's his elbow), and it looks like he is going to be headed for the dreaded Tommy John surgery. While this sort of surgery has been quite successful over the past several years (just ask Jon Lieber), it still means Wolf would definitely be out for the rest of this year, and likely much, if not all of 2006. Wolf hasn't decided on surgery yet, since he could opt to rest and rehab the elbow. However, this seems unlikely since this has been a recurring problem since last year and is likely to continue in the future. While not for certain, it seems he is headed for the surgery and we all wish him well as he will be sorely missed in the Phillies rotation.

With the expected loss of Wolf for the year, what are the Phillies options for filling his spot in the rotation? Had this question been asked at the beginning of the year, the answer would have been obvious...Gavin Floyd would have finally taken his much anticipated spot in the rotation. However, Floyd has been struggling at AAA since his stint as a reliever and subsequent demotion. One can't help but wonder if this kid's confidence has been shaken so badly from his outings as a reliever that it has translated to his starting. Perhaps bringing him back to the majors would restore the confidence, but that may not be a chance the Phillies want to take.

For now, it looks like Rob Tejeda will get the first crack at the open spot in the rotation. He did have a great outing last week against the Rangers tossing 5 shutout innings, but he has come from relative obscurity in the minors to do so. With only 15 major league innings under his belt, it may be a lot to ask.

If Tejeda doesn't work out and Floyd can't find his groove, then Ed Wade will have to step in and start the dealing. With Ryan Howard as the most likely bargaining chip, let's look at 6 starting pitching options likely to be on the market.

First the A List, meaning it may take Howard plus something to get these guys.

Roger Clemens - Astros
One of the aces of the Astros staff, Clemens sports a gaudy 1.64 ERA. With the Astros going nowhere this season, and Bagwell's career seemingly over, this looks like a good fit. However, The Rocket has a no-trade clause in his contract, and had retired before last year, only to come back because of the chance to play for his home town team. So, unless his competitive juices are flowing strong enough, this would be a tough deal to close.

Barry Zito - A's
Zito's name always seems to come up as a trade possibility for the Phillies. It seemed like Polanco was going to be traded for Zito last year, but that never materialized. The A's could definitely use a power hitting first baseman since Durazo doesn't seem to be turning into the hitter he was expected to be. Zito is a solid lefty, and is due a substantial raise in the near future (always a good reason for the A's to trade a player). This would seem to be a good fit for both teams, though Zito, an ex-Cy Young winner has struggled through the last 2 years at times, giving up a few too many home runs. Even so, he would provide a solid replacement for Wolf.

Jason Schmidt - SF Giants
The Giants are stuggling mightily without Barry Bonds in the lineup, and they might just start cleaning house to rebuild if it looks like Bonds won't return. JT Snow can't last much longer at first base, so they might have some interest in Howard. It may take awhile for them to decide to throw in the towel on this season, but if they do, Schmidt could be on the list of players to shop. Schmidt has been a perennial Cy Young candidate the last several seasons, though he has a 6.12 ERA this year. With his track record, he would be a welcome addition to the Phillies staff.

Now for the B list.

Mark Redman - Pirates
The Pirates are surging, but are unlikely to challenge the Cardinals this year. Once they feel they are out of the race, their annual trading spree could begin. Redman who is putting together a nice year (2.80 ERA) could be used as their bargaining chip. As you may recall, Redman was a solid piece of the Marlins rotation the year they won it all, so he has the playoff experience. He also has a 4.17 ERA and 33-36 record over the past 3 years. Solid numbers for a back of the rotation starter.

Jamie Moyer - Mariners
Seattle is having a tough year this year, and Moyer is about at the end of his career, so he doesn't seem to figure into their long-range plans. And, Moyer is a name Phillies fans may remember as a guy they were trying to sign in 2003. Moyer is a crafty veteran, but may not have much left in the tank. The Mariners are also set at first with Richie Sexson, but in the AL they do have that DH spot to fill.

Kevin Millwood - Indians
Would the Phillies brass dare bring back Millwood? Not likely, and the Indians are still in the race in the AL Central, and set at first base with Travis Hafner. But, who knows, stranger things have happened, and if Millwood isn't looked to as the "ace" of the staff, he could be a serviceable middle of the rotation guy. Just don't boo him too loudly.

Wild Card Team

Entering play today, June 11, the Philadelphia Phillies hold the National League Wild Card spot. Yes, it is rediculous to be thinking about the Wild Card, especially a month before the All-Star game, but just think about that for a second. This team has played so well since having it handed to them in Florida a couple of weeks ago that if the season ended today, they would be the Wild Card team. How many of the Philly Phaithful had given up on this team after that game (if not sooner)?

Of course, the season doesn't end today, and the Phillies have another 100 games to play, starting tonight against the Brew Crew. And, who wants to take the Wild Card when the National League East division title is up for grabs. Does anyone believe the Nationals are a strong enough team to hold the lead? Probably not many takers outside the beltway. Most would probably be picking the Marlins at this point, and the Phillies hold a 2 game lead over them. That's a 9.5 game swing over 2 weeks of play. Simply amazing.


Recent Observations
This streak the Phillies are on is the streak that so many in the media kept predicting last year, which never came. The whole time the Phillies were 5-7 games out, everyone was expecting them to string together 8-10 wins and get back in the race. This year, it was the same situation, albeit much earlier in the season and without the media prognosticators. So finally the winning streak is here, hopefully we get a second one since we were denied last year.

Jim Thome is showing signs of coming out of his funk. He's hit 2 home runs the last 2 days and 4 since May 27th. As described in a previous post, June is Thome's month to shine. Look for another 6 or 7 from Thome this month, and for him to carry the team at times.

Oogey, Oogey, Oogey. There's a new set-up man in town. Ugueth Urbina is now a Philly and comes in at a crucial time to save the tired bullpen arms. Urbina is a rock solid relief pitcher (despite his first outing), and should make closing the door on teams a much easier task. His signing really saves the arms up-and-down the staff. Wagner can get the occasional day off, and Madson and Cormier don't have to shoulder as much of a load in the late innings. This also allows the starters to come out a bit earlier if needed.

Worrell is back! Almost that is. Tim Worrell, as reported on MLB.com, is back with the team. He claims his personal issues are behind him and he is looking forward to pitching again. The goal is to have him get in condition, think a short spring training, and start a rehab assignment by June 20th. That could put Worell back in the Phillies bullpen just before July. This would be perfect timing, as the bullpen may need a boost by that time. This could set up a great situation for the stretch run, as a healthy (mentally or otherwise) Worrell makes this a scary relief staff.