Midway Phillies

Phils Go to the "B List" and get Blanton

2008-07-17T19:29:00.002-05:00

The Phillies have finally found a starter to add to the rotation, trading Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer to Oakland for starter Joe Blanton. The good news is the Phillies didn't give up much. Cardenas is a second baseman who is clearly blocked by Chase Utley for quite some time. Lefty pitcher Outman had been converted to a reliever in the minors as potential insurance for the big club. Apparently he hasn't done well enough to make the big league roster, or rather the relief staff has done so well to date, he really hasn't been needed.

The bad news, contrary to popular belief, Blanton hasn't been all that great a starter with a career ERA of 4.25 / BAA .273 and for the Fantasy Baseball crowd, a 1.33 WHIP. None of those stats are very exciting, but he is an innings eater and should take some pressure off of the bullpen which is likely to be important down the stretch. Blanton is also under team control through 2010, so he should be with the team for awhile.

This brings up the next logical question. With Brett Myers apparently returning in a week, who is out of the rotation? Probably Adam Eaton, unless there is another deal in the works to move Myers. Personally, I would rather have Myers given his track record than Eaton. My guess, Eaton moves to the bullpen, the Phillies try to move him to anyone who has a bit of interest and may end up dropping him altogether and eating his salary for the rest of '08 and all of '09.

"Ace" sent to the Minors

2008-07-01T18:11:00.002-05:00

In somewhat of a surprise move, the Phillies have optioned Brett Myers to triple-A to work out his mechanical issues. For the team "Ace", this is another odd turn in his past 2 years of going from opening day starter to closer to opening day starter to triple A starter. Hopefully the minor league assignments gets him straightened out and ready for the second half, the Phillies sure could use him with his Ace game.

The next question is who gets his next 3 or so starts in the rotation. Pat Gillick says this will be decided in the next 24-48 hours. Does this mean that a trade is in the works, perhaps the return of Randy Wolf? Could be, or it could just mean that they really haven't decided who to bring up from the minors yet. Kris Benson has been working back into shape, but doesn't sound ready to go yet, so it could be a youngster such as Carlos Carrasco. It would be interesting to see this guy's stuff at the major league level, so barring a trade, I vote for Carrasco. Maybe this can be the start of "Carrasco's Corral" in the outfield stands.

Get the 4-11 on the Phillies

2008-06-28T12:45:00.003-05:00

The Phillies have been fond of starting out the season 4-11 as they have done in each of the past two years. This year, the team got off to a solid start, hit their usual hot streak in May and took over the division. That was the good news.

The past couple of weeks however have been the bad news, with the team going 4-11 in their last 15 games. Is there something to the 4-11 record? Maybe it's a sign that they should dial 4-11 to find out what the problem is.

While the team has certainly hit a lull in the hitting department (we're all looking at you Howard -- Mr. 10 Million Dollar Man), one of the big concerns is the starting pitching. With Brett Myers' melt down last night against the Rangers, the team is left scratching their head with what to do with the starting staff. It's no secret that the Phillies are actively searching for a top-line starter to go with Hamels, and the following names are widely speculated to be on the market.

CC Sabathia
Erik Bedard
Rich Harden

It's pretty clear that any of those guys would greatly improve the staff. My favorite is Rich Harden since he should cost less due to his injury history and is a clear ace whenever he takes the mound. Bedard may be dealing with an injury and Sabathia will probably cost more in talent than what the Phillies have to offer, or would be willing to part with.

Of course, the next question is who would loose their spot in the rotation. After Hamels, here's the line on the other 4 starters:

2-6 Record, 4.86 ERA, 49K
7-3 Record, 4.59 ERA, 39K
7-5 Record, 4.09 ERA, 59K
3-9 Record, 5.84 ERA, 88K

If you were going strictly by the numbers that wouldn't be good news for Brett Myers.

The lines above belong to:

Adam Eaton
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Brett Myers

Can the Phillies really afford to jettison their opening day starter and "ace"? That probably isn't the wisest move given his history of success. Jamie Moyer has been pitching too well to be out of the rotation, Kendrick has the best record and Eaton has too high a salary to stick into the bullpen. Not to mention that the bullpen doesn't need another right hander anyway. So who would go? Probably Kendrick since he still has minor league options, though Eaton should really be the odd man out.

One thing is for certain, it's not clear who would loose their spot in the rotation IF the Phillies were to pull off a move, but it sure would be a nice thought to have a rotation anchored by Hamels and Harden (or Sabathia or Bedard) with a straightened out Myers as the number 3.

Phillies sign Steve Kline

2008-04-11T10:41:00.003-05:00

Looks like the Phillies finally decided to bite on released lefty Steve Kline, signing him to a minor league contract. Kline had a pretty rough year with the Giants in 2007 posting a 4.70 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with a .301 BAA. However, he is "only" 35 so he could still have some gas left in the tank. He does appear to be in decline since 2004, posting the following:

STL 2004 / 1.79ERA / 1.05WHIP / .209BAA
BAL 2005 / 4.28ERA / 1.46WHIP / .257BAA
SFG 2006 / 3.66ERA / 1.53WHIP / .275BAA
SFG 2007 / 4.70ERA / 1.65WHIP / .301BAA

It doesn't help that he went to a pitchers ballpark in 2006-2007 either. However, if he can pitch like his 2006 season, which is close to his career average, he will be a very serviceable reliever. If he pitches like he did in 2004, the Phillies will have one of the best bullpens in the game. Imagine that.

Seanez Signs

2008-04-01T11:00:00.003-05:00

After a forgettable start to the 2008 season, the Phillies have signed veteran relief pitcher Rudy Seanez to the staff. The Dodgers cut Seanez at the end of Spring Training and the word was that he was ready to retire.

The 39 year old righty has had a pretty solid career, posting a 4.15 ERA and 544 Ks in just 522 2/3 innings. Last year, Rudy posted a solid 3.78 ERA with nearly a K per inning, so he may have some gas left in the tank, and the Phillies can use all the help they can get out of the bullpen.

Bottom line, this is a solid and necessary signing, and it's a low-risk / medium-reward sort of deal. If it works out, the Phillies get a workhorse who can chew up the middle innings. If things don't work out, Seanez can retire and the Phillies likely won't have any future money committed (financial details haven't been release yet).

The word is that the Phillies are still looking for a left-handed option out of the bullpen. Curious that they weren't in on Aaron Fultz who was released by the Indians and signed by the Tigers last week, he seems to be on a good year/bad year/good year/bad year kick and this is his good year. Steve Kline was released by the Giants and is available, another guy who has had a solid career and may have some gas left in the tank.

Phils Add Ben-surance

2008-02-13T19:16:00.002-06:00

The Phillies completed a deal to add Kris Benson to the team just in time for pitchers and catchers to report to the Carpenter Complex.

Benson represents a nice low risk, high reward option for the Phillies and will provide real competition for the 5th spot in the rotation (whether that be Eaton or Kendrick). Benson had shoulder surgery 10 1/2 months ago, so he should be ready to go sometime between the start of the season and June 1. In either case, there's a good chance that he will need to regain his form in the minors before pitching at Citizen's Bank, so the competition for the 5th spot in the rotation could last into the start of the season.

For the Phillies, it's a win-win situation, if Kendrick builds on last years success and Eaton returns to form, then the rotation is set and Benson can work his way back starting in the minors and take the inevitable step to the majors when the first injury hits (anyone want to lay odds on who will be the first starter to hit the DL?) Now, if Kendrick or Eaton falter in Spring training then Benson could be ready to contribute right away.

The history of shoulder surgery recoveries shows a trend where a pitcher comes back with middling success right away, then regains their old form after 2-3 months of regular duty. This could net out to the Benson of old by the second half of the season, and the Phillies always seem to need reliable arms the second half.

Over his career, Benson has had pretty consistent stats. His career numbers are:
4.34 ERA
1.38 WHIP
.267 BAA

About what was expected out of Adam Eaton when he signed.

Feliz a Philly

2008-01-28T15:52:00.001-06:00

According to Jason Stark, the Phillies have signed Pedro Feliz to a 2 year deal. This solves the third base issue that the Phillies have been dealing with.

While most baseball fans outside of the bay area have probably not heard of Pedro Feliz, the fantasy world has been aware of him as an intriguing option at SS in the past. He has been somewhat of an anomaly for fantasy teams offering teasing production but a low batting average, making him a position only play.

Over Feliz's 7 year career with the Giants, he has shown amazing consistency for a guy that has been switched from position to position.

2004 - 22HR / 84RBI / .276BA
2005 - 20HR / 81RBI / .250BA
2006 - 22HR / 98RBI / .244BA
2007 - 20HR / 72RBI / .253BA

Given the fact that he has played in a pitcher friendly ballpark and in a lineup that rarely had an offensive threat other than Barry Bonds, it seems reasonable to project a 22HR / 85RBI / .250BA with the Phillies. This gives the Phillies a league average third baseman, which is really all the team needs to add to their already high-octane offense. Really since Rolen left, the Phillies have had a void at third, the best year turned in by David Bell in 2004 with an 18HR / 77RBI / .291BA line. Putting up 22HR / 85RBI numbers looks even better for a guy that will probably be batting 7th in the order.

As for defense, in the 615 games Feliz has played at the position, he has put up a .961 Fielding Percentage with a .822 Zone Rating. Last year's .852 Zone Rating was the best in the National League as was his Fielding Percentage of .973, ahead of both Aramis Ramirez (.972) and Chipper Jones (.971). This is a great sign for a pitching staff that can use a little extra help getting outs.

Bottom line, Feliz is a great defender and solid bat at the bottom of the order, just what the doctor ordered.

The next question is what happens to Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs? The Marlins expressed interest in Helms awhile back, and the Phillies will probably let him go for very little, cash if they can get it. Dobbs looks like a solid bench option and backup at 3rd and in the outfield, probably the best role for him as far as the team is concerned.

The Phillies have a Darn Good Bullpen

2008-01-17T17:48:00.001-06:00

The Phillies came to terms with Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson today avoiding arbitration hearings with the pair of right-handers. That got me thinking about the Phillies bullpen, and you know what? They look pretty darned good on paper. When did this happen? Especially after last year's abomination in the first half.

It started with the trade for Lidge and then re-signing Romero and then bringing in Chad Durbin. Aside from the Lidge deal (who is replacing Myers in the 'pen) it didn't seem like much was done. Let's run down the pen and see where the Phillies stand.

Closer - Brad Lidge
The guy has gotten a bad rap since serving up the Pujols game winner a couple years ago, and fantasy baseball players really noticed the problems with Lidge moving in-out-back in-then out again-then into the closers role for Houston since that blast. That hurt fantasy owners in 2006 and I should know I was one of his owners drafting a closer way to high (never draft a closer in the early rounds, but that's another topic). Still with the rough 2006, Lidge compiled 104 Ks, one of the few relievers in the game to accomplish that. Last year, where Lidge "struggled" he still posted a 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .220 BAA, all very close to his career averages.

Setup Man - Tom Gordon
Yes he struggled last year opening the season, but he was clearly pitching injured and tried to pitch through it, which never seems to work. You can almost pick out the pitchers these days throwing through injuries. They are usually way off their career numbers. Gordon was quite good down the stretch last year after his injury problems were behind him, so it's reasonable to assume he will pitch more like the 2006 and second half of 2007 models than the first half of 2007 model.

7th Inning Guy - Ryan Madson
Madson was kind of forgotten about last year, but posted a very strong season before going down with an injury, posting a 3.05 ERA. Seeing that Madson had signed reminded me how important he was to the Phillies bullpen the past few years, so I looked up his numbers and if you look at his career stats out of the pen (forget about those starts in 2006), you find a 3.48 ERA, which is fabulous for a 7th inning guy who has mostly been forgotten about. Assuming he stays healthy, Madson will be a key to the success of the bullpen.

Lefty Specialist - JC Romero
I still can't believe the Red Sox cast this guy off. Don't you think they wished they had stuck with Romero and ignored Eric Gagne? There's no doubt who was better the second half of last year. Romero has definitely had a checkered career with amazing years like 2002's 1.89 ERA surrounded by 6.23 (2001) and 5.00 (2003). It's unlikely he will duplicate his 2007 success with the Phillies, but if he is limited to left-handed situations, he should be very good. Career line vs. lefties 1.26 WHIP, .226 BAA. Career line vs. righties 1.65 WHIP, .271 BAA.

Swingman - Chad Durbin
We talked about Durbin in a past post, not the most exciting guy, but he is really being called upon to be the long man out of the pen and for the occasional spot start. If he performs like last year, he will get more exposure, but if not, he will chew up some innings where the Phillies are either way ahead or way behind. Good for saving the quality arms some mileage.

2008 Projections
Lidge - 3.30 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .215 BAA / 100 K / 35 SV
Gordon - 3.40 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .235 BAA / 65 K
Romero - 3.50 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .230 BAA / 55 K
Madson - 3.20 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .235 BAA / 70 K

Amazingly similar stats across the board, it would be interesting to see 4 pitches that close to each other in stats, essentially that would mean it didn't matter who was on the mound, you could expect the same result.

Now if the Phillies can just take a chance on a guy like Akinori Otsuka. Yes an injury risk, but why not take the shot with an incentive laden contract. If it works out, the Phillies could actually have one of the better relief staffs around. Who would have thought that last year.

One last thought, Octavio Dotel is still available and the Phillies appear to have cash available, when he doesn't close he is one of the best relievers in the game, as a closer he is league average. He would cost closer money $5-6M and may demand a closer role, but maybe he is interested in winning too, just a though.

So Taguchi Rounds out the Bench

2007-12-23T15:47:00.001-06:00

The Phillies made a minor signing today getting So Taguchi. Taguchi was the 4th outfielder for St. Louis the last several years. He is adept at getting on base with a .335OBP, but besides that he doesn't offer much in the way of power or speed (just a little of both). He is also a good defensive outfielder, so will probably be getting some time in left field for Burrell in the late innings.

Not sure what this means for Chris Snelling, it probably depends on how many pitchers the Phillies carry. Taguchi is probably a better hitter than Snelling, but with less upside.

Chad Durbin to the Phillies...who, what, why?

2007-12-21T13:48:00.000-06:00

The Phillies have signed Chad Durbin to a one year $900K deal. Definitely a low risk signing, but hard to see the upside.

Durbin has been around since 1999, but has pitched more than 50 innings only 4 of those years:

2000 72.1 IN / 8.21 ERA
2001 179 IN / 4.93 ERA
2004 51.1 IN / 6.66 ERA
2007 127.2 IN / 4.72 ERA

Those aren't real exciting numbers for sure. It appears Durbin will compete for the 5th starters position, but it's hard to imagine him winning the spot over a healthy Adam Eaton. Prior to last season's mess, Eaton did have a career 4.40 ERA. Durbin has a career 5.75 ERA, including last year's "career year".

In looking over last season's stats there is a silver lining on Durbin, if you take away his first 3 games where he gave up 16 runs in 13.2 innings, he actually compiled a 4.03 ERA.

So it appears that Durbin will compete for the starting rotation and be the long man out of the bullpen if he doesn't start. He could actually provide some solid innings pitched in either role, with the occasional bad outing sprinkled in between some solid outings. So there, Durbin provides some sort of upside.

The disappointing news out of this signing is the news that the Phillies are done searching for a starting pitcher or 3rd baseman. They are still interested in a left-handed reliever, which would appear to take Akinori Otsuka off the list.

If this is the end of the signings for the Phils, the bottom line is the same offense as last years with a mild upgrade to the pitching staff. Enough to compete, but does that put them over the top? Probably not.

Phillies Solidify their Outfield with Jenkins

2007-12-20T14:55:00.000-06:00

The Phillies have signed Geoff Jenkins to a 2 year, $13M deal with a vesting option for a 3rd year at $7.5M. The plan is to have Jenkins platoon in right field with Jason Werth, and when you look at the career numbers between the two, you can see why this makes sense.

Jenkins
vs RHP: .288 AVG / .358 OBP / .525 SLG / .883 OPS
vs LHP: .242 AVG / .313 OBP / .408 SLG / .721 OPS

Werth
vs RHP: .249 AVG / .342 OBP / .408 SLG / .750 OPS
vs LHP: .284 AVG / .378 OBP / .486 SLG / .864 OPS

Combined, this nets out to a right fielder with numbers around:
.286 AVG / .368 OBP / .500 SLG / .870 OPS

Not bad really when you look at it on paper. This seems to be a pretty savvy signing by Gillick to get a right fielder for around 7M per year, committed for only 2 years. Consider that Aaron Rowand costs twice as much and required double the commitment in years for a career line of:

.286 AVG / .343 OBP / .462 SLG / .805 OPS

Based on career stats, the right field platoon provides more offense to the Phillies than Rowand. The counter point of course is that Rowand's career year this year might be his regular output going forward, and that's exactly what the Giants paid for, but at $13M a year, it's a gamble. You can also argue that Jenkins is in decline, but what you can't argue is his great success vs. righties. He is also a plus defender, and when you combine that with Victorino's strong defensive abilities moving over to center, there should be no hit to the outfield defense.

Overall looks like a smart deal for the Phillies that plugs one of the holes in the team.

Geoff Jenkins Nearing a Decision

2007-12-14T15:50:00.001-06:00

According to Ken Rosenthal, Geoff Jenkins is deciding between the Phillies and the Padres. Jenkins' name has been brought up numerous times in relation to the Phillies, so this isn't much of a surprise. Jenkins would be the left-handed platoon mate for Jason Werth that the Phillies were hoping for.

Jenkins is a power hitter with some pretty decent power years. From 2003-2005 he averaged over 25HR and 90RBI. The last couple of years have seen his power numbers drop off, but it's really the splits the Phillies are interested in.

Jenkins career splits look like this (left/right):

AVG .242/.288
OBP .313/.358
SLG .408/.525
OPS .721/.882

He definitely looks perfect for a platoon, and would replace the production lost in Aaron Rowand. Now if the Phillies can just upgrade at 3rd, they can actually have a better offense than last year.

In other news, the Phillies are interested in Akinori Otsuka and are one of 9 teams reportedly interested in Mark Prior. Who isn't interested in Prior? Better move quick to get him.

Non-Tender Candidates

2007-12-13T22:04:00.000-06:00

Since the Phillies have missed out on any trades beyond Brad Lidge (good one BTW) and free agents, it's time to turn the attention to the non-tender list to see who might be out there to fill the open spots on the roster. It's pretty common knowledge that the Phillies are looking for a starter, reliever, 3rd baseman and an outfielder to either platoon with Werth or just be the 4th outfielder. So who strikes us as most interesting for each position?

STARTING PITCHERS

Mark Prior
Hard to believe, but the Cubs non-tendered Prior rather than pay him 3.5M to see what he's got this year. Possibly the best player on the non-tender list, Prior represents the opportunity to sign an ace for 5th starter dollars, and not even Eaton sort of dollars, think half of that. Seems like a no-brainer if Prior is interested. Of course he could be injured all season again, but a 3-4M flier seems reasonable.

After Prior there isn't much out there, Josh Towers, Mark Hendrickson or Mike O'Connor anyone? They do represent depth, but the Phillies may be better off with what they have now.

RELIEF PITCHERS

Some interesting names here, Kiko Calero was available for a few hours, but the A's snatched him back up.

Akinori Otsuka
Potential closer material if he is healthy, of course that's a big IF. Reports are saying that he is throwing fine, so he could be a nice addition, though he is probably looking for a pretty nice contract. The Rangers let him go because Otsuka wasn't hip on a "shared-risk" deal. Guess that means he wants guaranteed money.

Some other interesting names, Brendan Donnelly looks like he might miss the entire season because of Tommy John surgery and being named in the Mitchell report doesn't help. Matt Wise is an interesting choice with a 4.18 career ERA and a price tag lower than Otsuka.

3RD BASE

No luck on Crede being non-tendered, could always be a trade given the Phillies and White Sox recent history, and you wouldn't think it would take much to get Crede.

Dallas McPherson
A highly touted youngster in the Angels organization missed all of last year with back surgery, so he may be damaged goods. The Angels are also set on the offensive side of the field, so McPherson was expendable. Seems like he might be young enough to recover well from back surgery (unlike say...Scott Rolen). He projects to be a 20HR 80RBI guy if healthy, maybe more.

Another name of interest is the reclamation project that is Morgen Ensberg, not sure what happened after his 36HR year of 2005, but playing in San Diego couldn't have helped. Still he may be a better option than McPherson, he did hit 12HR last year in half a seasons worth of ABs.

OUTFIELD

Willie Harris
The Phillies seem set on a left-handed outfielder to platoon with Werth, so maybe that means Willie Harris would fit. The speedy, solid defender for the Braves last year is looking for a job. He would be an interesting replacement for Michael Bourn. Seems like essentially the same player with slightly less speed.

Jason Tyner is a lefty and available, he gets on base pretty well, but doesn't do much else. If the Phillies decide to go in another direction, Kevin Mench is available, but has already been marked off the list by the Phillies because of his right handed-ness. Jason Lane hit 26HR 78RBI in 2005, not much since, also not left-handed.

Rowand, Going, Going...Gone!

2007-12-12T16:38:00.000-06:00

Looks like Aaron Rowand has signed with the Giants for 5 years and $60. So after all it was about the money and the years for Rowand. Too bad, but we wish him luck.

Now at least the Phillies aren't left hanging to find out what Rowand will do. The organization can finally move on. With an outfield of Burrell, Victorino and Werth (plus platoon mate), the offense should be roughly what it was last year, with perhaps a slight drop off, though it should be considered that Werth might put up similar numbers to Rowand next year given the opportunity. Victorino will be just as good if not better defensively for Rowand, so it could be a win for the Phillies to avoid the big contract.

The focus for the Phillies now -- beyond pitching -- should be 3rd base. Looks like there is a chance that Joe Crede could be non-tendered tomorrow providing a chance for the Phillies to sign a solid hitter, good defender at what would appear to be a low-risk price. Then the Phils can move Helms to the Marlins for a minor league player, middle reliever, or bag of balls (why exactly do the Marlins want Helms back? And to be their highest paid player to boot?). Dobbs could then be the platoon mate for Werth in right field. All would start to come together in the universe for the Phillies. Hey, maybe Mark Prior will be non-tendered as well and the Phillies could take a shot on grabbing a potential ace for very little.

Iguchi on 3rd?

2007-12-04T18:29:00.000-06:00

Todd Zolecki reports in that Tadahito Iguchi may be open to playing third base for the Phillies. This is an interesting development as Iguchi was a great fill in for Chase Utley this season and seems to be a good clubhouse guy. The big question is can Iguchi play a major league 3rd base? His career .986 fielding percentage says that he is a pretty solid defender, but 2nd base is a long way from 3rd and quite a bit closer to the plate. Perhaps the bigger question is what sort of upgrade Iguchi would be for the Phillies at 3rd. His 2005-2006 seasons showed a nice bat with upside averaging 16HR, 70RBI, 12SB and a .280BA. Last year was a down year in BA until he came over to the Phillies, but his other numbers seemed in line.

An estimate of 2008 numbers, assuming he plays most of the season and has a small bump for playing in Citizens Bank and in a heavy hitting lineup:
20 HR
75 RBI
15 SB
.280 BA

Not too bad for a #6 or #7 hitter, and better than the alternatives.

Bedard to the Phillies?

2007-12-03T11:17:00.001-06:00

New rumor that I hadn't heard before coming from Jason Stark today. In his winter meeting notes he suggests that the Phillies have interest in the Orioles young ace Erik Bedard. For those unfamiliar with Bedard, he is a poor man's Santana with 15 and 13 wins the past 2 seasons, an average of about 200 Ks and 3.76 and 3.16 ERAs. All very gaudy numbers, especially for an American League pitcher who has to face the Yankees and Red Sox frequently. Let's put it another way, getting this guy makes Cole Hamels our #2. And the best part is that Bedard is team controlled through 2009, so no $20+M per year like Santana will cost.

The report claims that the Orioles want more than the price of Santana, and who can blame them, Bedard does represent a better deal for the acquiring team. While the Phillies probably don't have much of a chance at landing him, what would it take from the Phillies to make the Orioles think?

Let's start our own rumor...Victorino, Kendrick, Jason Jaramillo and Carlos Carrasco for Erik Bedard. The Orioles would definitely have to think about that one. Victorino is a Carl Crawford type player, Kendrick's value may never be higher, Jaramillo projects to a starting catcher in a year and Carrasco is one of the Phillies top pitching prospects. That's the sort of deal the Orioles are looking for. Is it a good deal for the Phillies? Short term it could be, but long-term that's a lot of talent to give up and pretty much strips the farm system bare, but if the team is looking to get a top tier rotation right away, this would probably get the job done.

Looks like no Wolfie

2007-12-01T23:01:00.000-06:00

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Padres have a preliminary agreement on a deal with Randy Wolf pending a physical. Looks like the Phillies hard sell couldn't get past Wolf's desire to pitch near home. To bad since a healthy Wolf would have been a welcome part of the Phillies rotation in 2008. Of course he could have also been Freddy Garcia round 2.

Wolfpack Back?

2007-11-30T16:44:00.000-06:00

Looks like the Phillies are making a serious run at bringing Randy Wolf back. Wolf left the Phillies last off-season to play for his hometown Dodgers, and while the departure was unfortunate, he pretty much left on good terms.

Honestly, the Phillies didn't seem to have a ton interest in keeping Wolf around given the time he missed the previous 2 years. Yes, he turned down a larger offer from the Phils to sign with the Dodgers last year, but it still didn't feel like the organization put their best foot forward. Now we hear that the entire front office is talking to him.

This year it looks like the Dodgers are the team not so interested in retaining Wolf's services. Not really sure why since he pitched like an Ace the first half of the year posting a 7-3 record and 3.73 ERA through June 1. Kind of reminds you of 2003 huh? Other than his final game of the season where he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings and was obviously not feeling right (he went on the DL after that game) he only game up more than 4 runs in one other outing.

Perhaps the Dodgers were concerned with the shoulder injury that sidelined him the rest of the season. For the Phillies, they look interested in taking him on as a low-risk, high-reward type pitcher who has the ability to be a solid number 2 or 3 in the rotation. Seems like a 2-3 year deal for 20-30M would get the job done.

If the injuries are in Wolf's past, this could be a vary savvy signing, he's probably the best available free agent pitcher who happens to be entering his age 31 season, which is usually a pitchers prime.

Phillies Beat Mets for NL East Title!...on Paper

2007-03-31T14:19:00.000-05:00

Fantasy Baseball is one of my passions. I've played in leagues since 1987 and have experienced the excitement of drafting Mike Schmidt, one of my favorite all-time players. This is where fantasy and reality begin to blur. While Schmidt put up very strong numbers in 1987 (35HR/113RBI/.293BA), keeping him on my roster in 1988 proved to be more of a problem (12HR/62RBI/.249BA). I did manage to finish in second place each season, but probably could have made it to first with a stronger hitter than Schmidt in my lineup.

In any case, it was a lesson learned. Something about weighing emotions vs. hard statistics, something successful fantasy baseball players are very adept at doing. In fact, because of my emotional attachment to the Phillies, I actually tend to undervalue most of their players heading into drafts so that I don't make the same mistake again. Of course, last year this meant passing up on Utley, Howard and Rollins (all fantasy studs) when I could have drafted them in good value positions.

This year I do have Howard and Burrell on one team and Utley on another, but keep missing out on Myers and Hamels, they are both going early than expected and right about the same time. Hamels went one pick ahead of Myers in one draft and Myers when a round before Hamels in another, both ahead of where it made sense to draft them based on the projections.

The relationship between fantasy and reality got me thinking when the news came out that Jimmy Rollins was proclaiming the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East. The emotion is great to hear from a team that had none through the Bowa era and early on in the Manuel era, (maybe it was the Abreu era) but was it just emotion, or does Jimmy Rollins have a point?

Mets fans of course like to point to last year when they ran away with the division and the Phillies were left in rebuilding mode only to find out they were good enough to compete for the Wild Card. As everyone knows, last year was last year and this year is different. It's not like the Mets won 14 straight division titles and have the right to proclaim themselves the team to beat. It was just one year.

The Hard Statistics
While preparing for my Fantasy drafts this year, I decided to take a look at how the Mets roster compares with the Phillies roster. First a bit about how I prepare. When projecting player statistics, I look at 3 sources; The Sporting News, ESPN and the Roto Wire. I take each of their projections and average them out to determine what is expected of every player in the draft. This gives me stats on the players most likely to be drafted and some that aren't. One caveat here, bench players and the bullpen aren't considered (yes, I know this is an area of concern for both teams, so maybe I'll cover that in a later blog).

Looking at fantasy projections may not be the best statistical research, especially for those hard core statisticians out there, and it doesn't take into effect the schedule, which benefits the Phillies, but it does provide some interesting results none-the-less.

What does seem most important in looking at the stats is determining how many runs will be scored by each team's hitters and how many runs will be given up by each teams pitchers. This should give some sort of indication of won-loss record.

Phillies Hitters (runs scored)
123 Jimmy Rollins
80 Shane Victorino
122 Chase Utley
110 Ryan Howard
81 Pat Burrell
71 Aaron Rowand
58 Wes Helms
60 Rod Barajas
------------------
705 Total

Phillies Pitchers (ERA)
3.99 Brett Myers
4.11 Cole Hamels
4.17 Freddy Garcia
4.43 Jamie Moyer
4.67 Adam Eaton
3.00 Tom Gordon
-------------------
4.19 ERA (Averaged based on Innings Pitched)

Mets Hitters (runs scored)
120 Jose Reyes
120 Carlos Beltran
103 David Wright
86 Carlos Delgado
61 Moises Alou
70 Shawn Green
57 Jose Valentin
70 Paul Lo Duca
--------------------
687 Total

Mets Pitchers (ERA)
3.92 Tom Glavine
4.39 Orlando Hernandez
4.35 John Maine
4.46 Mike Pelfrey*
3.83 Pedro Martinez*
5.70 Oliver Perez*
2.06 Billy Wagner
---------------------
4.22 ERA (Averaged based on Innings Pitched)

Note: It's not known when (or if) Pedro will pitch or who he will replace in the rotation, so Martinez, Perez and Pelfry were weighted with the same number of innings pitched between them (which is pretty much how the statistical sources had it as well).

The Final Analysis
As this study shows, the Phillies are again projected to lead the Mets in Runs scored 705 to 687 (starters only), but this year they are also projected to give up fewer runs per game 4.19 vs. 4.22.

Another interesting stat that comes out of this is the number of innings pitched by starters, where Phillies starters are projected to eat up 970 innings this season, the Mets starters are only projected to throw 895 innings. More thoughts on the effect that will have on the bullpens later.

For now Phillies fans can relish in the thought that Rollins is correct when he says they are the team to beat. Of course, that's why they play the games.

Your National League Wildcard Leader

2006-09-21T15:46:00.000-05:00

At least partially, as the Phillies moved into a tie with the Dodgers for the National League Wild Card. Quite an accomplishment really, with the way this season started and progressed for the Phillies. According to Elias, this is the first time the Phillies have been the Wild Card leader this year, so the team has piqued at the right time.

With their new found pitching skills, this team looks poised to take over the Wild Card race. It won't be easy, but they have a very good chance when you look at the remaining schedule. The Phillies have 10 games left to finish out the season. 3 of the games are with the lowly Nationals, so that presents a schedule advantage. Then there is one makeup game left with the Astros. The difficult part of the schedule comes with the 6 games remaining with the Marlins and the 3 final games of the season in Miami.

The Phillies have shuffled their starting pitching so that Randy Wolf starts against the Astros and Jon Lieber skips pitching against the Marlins in Miami, where he has a 5.86 career ERA. To look even further into the matchups, the Phillies won't be facing either Dontrelle Willis or Anibel Sanchez in the current series, and should avoid facing any of the Astros tough pitchers in that game. Charting out the Marlins rotation, it looks like the Phillies will only have to face either Willis or Sanchez once in Florida. All of this projects out to some nice offensive games for the Phillies, so as long as the starting pitching continues to hold up, things look good.

By contrast, after today's game, the Dodgers have 9 tough games left agains the Diamondbacks and on the road for the final 6 against the Rockies and Giants. Charting out their pitching opponents isn't nearly as favorable as they are likely to face the following hurlers:

Jason Jennings 3.65 ERA
Noah Lowry 1.86 ERA (in August)
Matt Cain 2.80 ERA (since All Star Break)
Jason Schmidt 3.50 ERA

In case the Dodgers end up doing better than the Phillies the rest of the way, the Phillies still have a shot at beating out the Padres who are the current NL West leaders, but only 1/2 game ahead of the Phillies and Dodgers. They also have a tough road the rest of the way, with 4 games left against the Diamondbacks where Brandon Webb should get 2 starts. They also have 3 games against the Pirates and the Cardinals. Take note that the Pirates are on a 5 game winning streak and may not be as easy to beat as they seem. Here's who the Padres are likely to face off against the rest of the way:

Brandon Webb-2 Starts 2.92 ERA (potential Cy-Young)
Chris Carpenter 2.79 ERA (potential Cy-Young)
Jeff Suppan 2.04 ERA (since All Star Break)

It all adds up to a great schedule advantage for the Phillies, and barring a major setback or some exceptional play by the Dodgers and Padres against some great pitchers, we should be seeing the Phillies in the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

There, I've made a bold prediction, superstition be damned! Now, don't let me down.

Trade Winds Swirling

2006-07-21T17:40:00.000-05:00

This doesn't come as a surprise to anyone who is mildly following the Phillies these days, but Pat Gillick seems determined to trade away some big salaries in order to fix the problems the Phillies are having. What's the problem you ask? Well any baseball fan can answer that one. Our starting pitching stinks!

This has been a tourturous season to be a Phillies fan. The season began with so much promise from guys like Floyd and Madson tearing up Spring Training, then bringing in the highly touted Cole Hamels. It shouldn't have mattered that Lieber was out with injuries and Myers was out for his problems, the depth of talent should have been able to make up for the holes. Well, it certainly hasn't worked out that way, the Phillies are the proud owners of the worst pitching staff in the National League (at least when you measure it by the number of base runners allowed).

So, Pat is hitting the trade market to find the team some arms and to re-adjust the payroll so that arms can be bought in the off-season. In the next week-and-a-half, the following guys could be traded away.

Bobby Abreu
The biggest name on the trade market (on par with Soriano of course), Abreu's name just hasn't stayed out of trade rumors since the off-season. The likelihood of him being traded seems quite low however. The reason's being that Abreu is a big-time talent with a big-time contract. Pat is smart enough to see this and is looking for another team to take on Bobby's entire salary and return top talent in trade. This becomes even more difficult since Bobby has a no-trade clause and will only waive it if his option is picked up, making him a $30M player. Pretty much only the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox can afford that. The Yankees and Mets are in more need of arms then bats and neither has the talent to trade that Gillick seems to be in search of, namely top tier starters. The White Sox would seem to be a fit since they have an extra starter in either Garcia, Vasquez or hot shot prospect Brandon McCarthy. They also need a better center fielder and could easily move the speedy Podsednik into the role. However, the White Sox seem more interested in a pitcher. Why? Who knows, they seem to have to many of them to begin with. Vasquez could be a good addition and a player that seems to only want to play on the East Coast, but the prospects of that sort of deal happening are slim.

Pat Burrell
If Abreu can't be moved, the over-bloated contract of Burrell's seems to be next on the list. The Orioles seem to have interest and are willing to part with Rodrigo Lopez, but that isn't all that exciting of an arm to acquire. Think Cory Lidle when you hear the name Lopez. A guy that can shut a team down one night and get blown out the next. Here's an idea, how about a trade for Melvin Mora, the Philies are certain to dump the underperforming error-machine they have at third base after the season, and will need to replace that position anyway. It doesn't fix the immediate need, but maybe some more offense will help that pitching staff win another game or two. Let me explain the more offense part...Mora would offer similar numbers to Burrell's, while Dellucci and Victorino could platoon in left and both could put up better numbers than David Bell. Oh, why couldn't Thome have played third?

Cory Lidle
For as consistent as Cory has been in the middle of the rotation the past few years, he has never been considered a major building block for the team. The Phillies seem interested in helping another team that needs a little extra pitching to get over the hump this year, and there seems to be considerable interest. Cory is a solid pitcher, and he seems the most likely to be moved. Weird, since pitching is our problem, but it is an epidemic around the league anyway. Maybe Pat can talk the Dodgers into swapping Lowe for Lidle, Lowe would be a perfect fit as a ground-ball specialist, though he has limited upside.

Jon Lieber
His start tonight might be his final audition for a trading partner as it seems certain that Lieber and his relatively large contract are almost certainly headed to another team before the deadline. No idea which team it would be, but the Yankees, Mets and even the White Sox could be at the top of the list.

Other names that could be moved are Tom Gordon, Arthur Rhodes, David Bell (if anyone would take him), Franklin and Dellucci. It doesn't seem prudent to trade Gordon if the Phillies feel like they can contend next year, if this is a longer-term play, then Gordon would be easy to trade away. Dellucci has garnered a decent amount of interest and could be much easier to trade than Abreu or Burrell, but it doesn't do much for freeing up salary, which seems to be one of the keys for making deals right now.

In the end, expect Lieber and Lidle to be traded, leaving a rotation of Myers, Madson, Hamels, Wolf and probably Franklin. Ouch, not real exciting, but a staff that can eat up the innings left in the season and get the team ready for 2007 when the staff starts with Myers, Wolf and Hamels with Franklin in all likelihood on another team and Madson back in the bullpen.

Then, let's see if Gillick can get it done and bring in some top talent. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito should be available. Schmidt would be my choice since Zito is a flyball type of pitcher, but more on that when the post-season arrives.

Building the Rangers Starting Staff

2006-04-02T20:37:00.000-05:00

The Phillies seem to be in the business of supplying starting pitchers to the Texas Rangers these days. After giving away Vicente Padilla (Ricardo Rodriquez has been released if you haven't heard), Pat Gillick has completed the trade of Robinson Tejeda and Jake Blalock for outfielder David Dellucci.

It's a shame to see the talented arm of Tejeda go, but his value may have peaked last year. He has never projected to a solid major league pitcher, mostly due to his inability to find the strike zone. Last year his stuff was electric, but he threw a large number of balls out of the strike zone and seemed to live on the edge in every game he pitched. The ability to move Tejeda so easily seems to point to how deep the Phillies young pitching goes, as I've discussed in a previous post.

As for Dellucci, the Phillies are getting a pretty solid outfielder that can serve as the left handed power that Gillick has wanted available from the bench. In fact, Delucci was the starting left fielder for the Texas Rangers last year and put up some pretty impressive numbers.

David Dellucci (2005) - 29 HR / 65 RBI / .251 BA
(2006 Pre-Trade Projections) - 21 HR / 57 RBI / .244 BA

With this signing, the question has to be asked...Is there another shoe ready to drop? Dellucci could be a starting outfielder on many major league teams with the potential for 30 home runs in 500 plus at bats. Is he really just going to serve as the 4th or 5th outfielder for the Phillies? Perhaps, but it makes you wonder if Gillick has another deal in the making. Perhaps a Burrell or Abreu deal for that elusive top-of-the-rotation starter. Hopefully this isn't a signal that Burrell's injury is more severe than has been let on.

The bottom-line, for now, is that the Phillies get the bench depth they have been searching for, and Dellucci should provide plenty of home runs in his at bats as a starter or a pinch hitter. Over his career, mostly in part-time service, he has averaged a home run for every 28 at bats, but in the last 2 years he has averaged a home run every 16.6 at bats. Which means if he gets 200 at bats in part time duty, we could see 12 home runs from Dellucci, and that's pretty good news.

Reasons to Believe

2006-03-31T15:37:00.000-06:00

If you pay attention to the general sports media, you wouldn't have much of a reason to believe the Phillies have a chance at the post season this year. All of the so-called experts believe that the off-season moves the Mets have made makes them the odds on favorite to win the N.L. East, or at least take the Wildcard. I have some specific comments about their team and where their flaws are, but will reserve them for a later posting. Everyone else picks the Braves to win the N.L. East, and while you can't blame the media for picking a team that has won the division 14 straight years, it shouldn't just be handed to them, especially when they are in semi-rebuilding mode.

If you take an objective look at the team the Phillies have put together for this season, any reasonable person would believe they are a legitimate contender for the post-season. So, on the eve of the eve of the season opening, I thought it would be good to point out the reasons why the Phillies should be getting more consideration.

1) Jimmy Rollins
Never underestimate the importance of a quality lead-off hitter. In the last few years, Rollins has finally figured out how important his role is on the team, and that translated to a 36 game hitting streak to end of the regular season last year. Quite literally, as Jimmy Rollins goes, so goes the Phillies. The table setter is quite possibly the most important spot in the lineup. Just think about all of those Braves teams that had Kenny Lofton (in his prime) and Rafael Furcal leading off. If Rollins can manage a .350 OBP, the Phillies should walk into the post-season.

Jimmy Rollins - .296 BA / 13 HR / 62 RBI / 38 SB / 116 R

While I am clearly a Phillies fan, I want you to know that any statistical projections come from my experience as a Fantasy Baseball manager. These stats come from an accumulation of several expert Fantasy Baseball sources. And, when it comes to projecting stats, Fantasy Baseball is the most un-biased place to look.

2) A full season of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard
Last year the Phillies started off slowly, and part of the reason was an injured Jim Thome and a platooning Chase Utley. Once Polanco was traded and Thome was placed on the DL, both Utley and Howard had a chance to flourish, and so did the Phillies playoff chances. With a full season of both these young power hitters playing, the Phillies will be better off than they were last year. Here are their projections for this year:

Chase Utley - .293 BA / 31 HR / 106 RBI / 17 SB
Ryan Howard - .279 BA / 37 HR / 105 RBI

3) We still have Abreu and Burrell
This Phillies lineup has the chance to be the best hitting team in the N.L. and probably on par with the Yankees, Red Sox or White Sox. I've already talked about Rollins, Utley and Howard as keys to the season, but let's not take for granted the other big bats in the order. Here are their statistical projections:

Bobby Abreu - .295 BA / 27 HR / 105 RBI / 28 SB
Pat Burrell - .276 BA / 30 HR / 108 RBI

As you can see, the Phillies project out to four 100 RBI guys in their lineup. How impressive a feat would this be. To begin with, no team had four 100 RBI guys last year. Only 2 teams managed three 100 RBI guys (Phillies included) and 3 others had two 100 RBI guys. Here's the list:

Phillies - Bobby Abreu (102), Chase Utley (105), and Pat Burrell (117)
New York Yankees - Alex Rodriguez (130), Gary Sheffield (123) and Hideki Matsui (116)
Boston - Manny Ramirez (144) and David Ortiz (148)
Texas - Alfonso Soriano (104) and Mark Texiera (144)
Florida - Miguel Cabrera (116) and Carlos Delgado (115)

4) Aaron Rowand
The addition of Rowand to the team has been much heralded as a guy who plays hard and has World Series experience. That's great and all, but what Rowand really brings to the table is a solid bat in the lineup and gold glove level defense in center field. Whether Rowand bats 2nd or 6th in the lineup doesn't really matter since he will produce runs either way. What really matters is his defense and what it will mean to the starting staff. Having a guy track down ball that would normally hit off the wall for a double will do wonders for a pitching staff's confidence, not to mention the number of runs he will save. For the record here are his projections and they aren't too shabby either:

Aaron Rowand - .281 BA / 20 HR / 77 RBI / 14 SB

5) We have options at Third Base
It's widely understood that the Phillies have one of the worst offensive 3rd basemen in the game with David Bell. He's a great clubhouse guy and all, but if he doesn't produce like he did in 2004, he will be on a short leash. Pat Gillick was savvy enough to go out and get Abraham Nunez and Alex Gonzalez. I've mentioned Gonzalez's stats before and his average year is about what Bell's career year equals. So, one way or another it seems the Phillies will get solid production from their 3rd basemen this year.

6) The Relief Staff
Yes, the Phillies lost one of the best closers in the game in Billy Wagner, but think back a moment to last year. Remember how Wagner folded in the face of back-to-back games with the Astros. Ok, maybe that isn't fair, he is one of the dominant closers and it isn't good news to loose him to a division rival. Remember back again to last year when the middle relievers couldn't hold a lead the first half of the year. Tim Worrell had personal issues, Terry Adams was horrible and Rheal Cormier couldn't get any right handers out and Ryan Madson even had a bit of a down year.

While Tom Gordon isn't at quite the level of Wagner, he is a solid replacement who should do well in the role of closer. What's more important are the other 6 guys in the bullpen. After last year, just about any collection of 6 relievers would be in better shape. And the Phillies have put together a solid collection of arms. Arthur Rhodes is one of the best setup men in the game. Fultz will be back and hopefully can build on his success from last year. Cormier can't be as bad as he was last year, in either case, he shouldn't be facing anything but lefties where he did have success. Ryan Franklin is now the 7th inning guy, and his stuff is pretty solid for that role, he should be every bit as effective as Madson was in the role.

The point here is that on the surface, the relief staff doesn't get fans all that excited, but when you look at them on the whole and compare them to last year, the Phillies appear much better off.

7) Strong Young Arms mixed with some Quality Veterans
The starting rotation may be the achilles heal of this year's team, but they may not be as bad as people make them out to be. First of all, the fences in Citizen's Bank Park have been moved back in left field, which should hold in more of those pop flies that found their way out of the park last year. While this is a benefit to any pitcher, it should help with the Phillies confidence in thowing all of their pitches.

Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are pretty much known quantities and can be counted on for solid innings that keep the Phillies in most of their games. Remember, the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup, so any game that is close is win-able for this team.

The rest of the staff is where fans could find a lot of excitement this year. Brett Myers came into his own last year and appears poised for a breakout season (if last year wasn't already that). People still compare him to Curt Schilling, and if he can pitch like Schilling did in his prime, the Phillies will be in great shape.

This brings up the back of the rotation. Most teams have a dependable, veteran arm with little upside and a rookie looking to make a mark in the back of their rotations. The Phillies have 2 young guns with a chance to be special in the back of their rotation. Ryan Madson had a great spring and has a great history of starting in the minors. If he can do it for a full year, he has a chance to be a special pitcher. I've already discussed Gavin Floyd's potential, and he is certainly a wildcard. If he pitches to his potential he is the ace of the staff, if he flames out then the Phillies have other options. Either way, the starting staff looks like all upside at this point.

8) Other Quick Points
While there is much to be optimistic about with this team, there are several other factors that could be good news for the Phillies this year, since this post is getting rather long, I'll just list them for you.

- Great team defense
- Top of the league in team speed
- Charlie Manuel has hopefully figured out the pieces
- A power hitting backup catcher and speedy outfielder making up a solid bench
- Great young pitching talent in the minors ready for the opportunity
- Randy Wolf's potential return in July

While it's easy for any team to make a case for winning their division, I think the Phillies have as strong a case as any team in the league. Now, let's go out and play ball...and stay positive Phillies fans.

Floyd Makes the Rotation

2006-03-30T12:20:00.000-06:00

MLB.com is reporting that Gavin Floyd has been named the Phillies #5 starter. This is great news for Phillies fans as Floyd has long been considered a potential ace of the staff. After his setbacks last year, he has come through in a big way this spring and earned himself a shot at becoming that ace.

This leaves one open question for the Phillies, who lost their spot in the starting rotation and becomes the 7th inning guy? We know that Lieber, Myers and Lidle have been named the starting 3, so that leaves one of the Ryan's...Madson or Franklin.

With the success Madson has had in the bullpen the last couple of years, it would be an easy move to send him to the 'pen. However, with as good a spring that Floyd has had, Madson's has been even better, suggesting that he has earned a spot in the rotation as well. Manuel has stated that he wants the best players to go north with him, and given the spring stats, Madson is the best for the starting rotation.

This leaves Ryan Franklin as the most likely person to move to the 'pen. Interestingly enough, he was signed with the knowledge that he might pitch in relief. His brother (and agent) even included incentives for total number of appearances, suggesting that relief was a real possiblity. Add to this that Manuel is refusing to name the final 2 starters, but is also saying that he has definitely made up his mind. Franklin has been out of camp lately, so if you read between the lines, this likely means that Manuel wants to tell Franklin in person before telling the media.

Great news Phillies fans, our starting rotation may now be full of great potential. Madson already had nice upside, but not much was expected out of Franklin. With Floyd in the rotation, this could be a very exciting pitching staff. It's way too early to predict anything, but this staff definitely has the potential to be dominant if everything works out.

Too Much Pitching?

2006-03-21T17:41:00.000-06:00

As the old adage goes, "You can never have too much pitching". No one is going to accuse the Phillies of having the best pitching staff in baseball, the National League, or event the N.L. East. In fact, they probably have the 3rd best staff in the N.L. East. But is it possible they have assembled more major-league ready arms than any other team on the planet outside of Korea?

Consider this, we already know the starting rotation is set with:
Jon Lieber
Brett Meyers
Cory Lidle
Ryan Madson
Ryan Franklin

Baring anything unforseen, those 5 will break camp as the rotation. This means that last year's stand outs Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito are destined for a bus ticket to Scranton. Add to that the stellar spring that Gavin Floyd is having, and the likelihood that Ricardo Rodriguez will also have the same bus tickets, and the Red Barrons should be in great shape this season.

Gavin's Comeback

Speaking of Floyd, it's encouraging to see that he is trusting his stuff again and is making a concerted effort to stop overthinking every situation. This has paid off with a 3-0 spring training record and a 2.30 ERA. It looks like the "Future Ace" might have turned the corner and be back on track to reaching the big club.

Gavin is probably headed for triple-A to show that he can keep the success going for an extended period of time, but at the first sign of ineffectiveness from Franklin or Madson, or the first injury for any starter, Floyd could be the one called up. If he does get the call, let's hope he makes the most of his opportunity and supplants himself as a key member of the rotation.

Getting back on Topic

Continuing on the theme of great pitching prospects, the Phillies also have Cole Hamels, Giovani Gonzalez, Scott Mathieson and Daniel Haigwood. Most of these guys should be pitching for double-AA Reading this year.

Hamels has long been projected as a "Future Ace" and if it weren't for his many injuries, he would probably be a part of the Phillies rotation this year. His stuff is filthy and he has been complimented from the likes of Alex Rodriguez as one guy he wouldn't want to face again. With such high praise and obvious talent, if Hamels can just stay healthy a full year, he should quickly advance to the big club.

Gonzalez, one of the "Other Guys" in the Thome trade projects as a top-of-the-rotation type of starter, while Haigwood (the other "Other Guy") projects as a solid back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. If both of these guys make the big leagues in the next couple of years, the Thome trade could look like a steal of a deal for the Phillies.

And, let's not forget that Randy Wolf is recovering from Tommy John surgery and could play a part for the Phillies in the second-half of the year. While the current rotation is a solid group, the future looks very bright for the Phillies on the mound.

Crystal Ball

Taking a look into the future, just what might the Phillies staff look like? First, let's assume that Gillick isn't able to land that big name starter by next season, then assuming Lidle and Franklin aren't re-signed and Lieber decides to retire (ok, the crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, but let's assume all of this anyway). This leaves a potential rotation of:
Brett Meyers
Ryan Madson
Randy Wolf
Cole Hamels
Gavin Floyd

This of course if how the Phillies drew it up a couple of years ago, but it could happen sooner rather than later, and this would be the type of staff that can help a team win for a long time.

Random Thoughts

David Bell's back is continuing to hurt him, and I think most Phillies fans aren't all that concerned. If he isn't ready to go the first few weeks of the season, it could be interesting watching what Gonzalez and Nunez can do...Peter Bergeron was sent down today, so he won't be making the team. The slap-hitting, ex-Expo would have been one of the feel good stories of the year if he had made it, but the Phillies are looking for more of a power hitter off the bench. Maybe we will see him sometime during the year...Chris Coste (pronounced Coast) is making a strong case for making the team, and that would be an even better feel-good story of a 33 year old rookie. What's even more intriguing about Coste is the fact that he can fill in as a catcher if needed, which would free up Fasano as the power-hitting pinch hitter the Phillies are looking for.

Catching Up

2006-03-01T16:29:00.000-06:00

Ok, I've got some catching up to do since my last blog. Sorry for those of you who have been checking in looking for some new information. With Spring Training well underway (games started today), the time for baseball discussion is back.

Couple of New Faces
Since the signing of Ryan Franklin there have been a couple of minor deals. I'm sure you've read enough about them already, but I felt the need to weigh in on them before moving on to more pressing questions like how the Phillies will do this year.

The Phillies made a deal to aquire Arthur Rhodes and then signed Alex S. Gonzalez to a one year contract.

Leading up to the signing of Rhodes, Gillick was really in the market for a top of the rotation starter to anchor the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the few guys that were available came at a premium, the kind of premium that a Bobby Abreu just didn't justify. So in the end, the strategy is to let Ryan Madson step into the rotation to see what he can do. Overall this is a sound strategy for the pitching staff, as we really need to see what Madson can do. If he struggles for a couple of months, well then we know he is cut out for the bullpen and that he can be successful there. This also opens the door for one of the myriad of young pitchers the Phillies seem to have now.

Back to the transactions, first Jason Michaels was traded to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes. Overall this is a solid deal. It's tough to see Michaels go, but he was really a spare part as the 4th outfielder on this team, and didn't figure to get all that many at-bats with Aaron Rowand in town. Shane Victorino also looks ready to go to fill Michaels role and projects to some pretty nice numbers. Now to Rhodes.

Arthur Rhodes has built a career on being one of the best setup guys in baseball. From a Fantasy Baseball perspective, in the late 90s and early 00s, Rhodes was always the first middle reliever off the boards thanks to his consistent and quality stats. Once Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene with his 100 strike outs, Rhodes took a back seat, but was still consider a quality option.

Rhodes best seasons were in Seattle in 2001 and 2002 where he put up 1.72 and 2.33 ERA's and 83 and 81 Ks respectively. Those years prompted a move to closing for Rhodes, who was signed by Oakland in 2004 to be their guy. Unfortunately he didn't have the makeup for closing as the Athletics quickly found out in when he put up a gastly 5.12 ERA and blew 5 of his 14 save opportunities and lost the ability to strike hitters out. After that experiment Rhodes became a forgotten pitcher.

Enter Cleveland last year who took a shot on Rhodes and decided to keep him around as a setup man. Rhodes thrived without the spotlight on him and posted a 2.08 ERA and raised his K rate to 9 per 9 innings. You can write 2004 off when considering his stats. The Phillies should expect a similar season to last, as long as Manual resists the temptation to try him out in the closer's role. He can close on occasion, but only when the situation warrants, not as the "go to guy".

About Gonzalez
Being from Chicago, I know all about this Alex Gonzalez, vs. the other Alex Gonzalez who played several years for the Marlins and doesn't have an "S" for a middle initial. On a brisk October eve in 2003, the Cubs had Prior on the mound and were not so many outs away from advancing to the World Series, the first in nearly 100 years, and with the way Prior was pitching they looked dialed in. That's when The Curse struck. You all remember Steve Bartman knocking the ball away from Moises Alou, but you may not remember what happened next. The Bartman ball didn't cause any harm, since it was ruled foul, however the lazy groundball that was hit towards Gonzalez at short is where the game started to unravel. It's not like the ball was hit all that hard, it even had a nice easy hop up to Gonzalez's glove, however The Curse grabbed his glove and made him muff the play, opening the gates to the tying runs. For a guy with a career .973 fielding percentage, that was as easy a play as it gets. Way easier than the Dave Kingman play, but this is the Cubs and they are cursed.

As for Gonzalez, well he is actually a pretty solid hitter, who was moved to third base last year, making this signing quite interesting.

Consider these numbers.

18 HR
66 RBI
.266 BA

These are Gonzalez's average numbers from 2000-2003. The last time he was a full-time player. He was injured and split time between 3 teams in 2004, and only got 349 at bats last year. Project last years numbers out and he would have had 15 HR, 60 RBI and he did hit .269, so right on his average. What's my point you ask? These numbers aren't very exciting to think about you say?

Well, consider David Bell's production from 2004 when he had a career year.

18 HR
77 RBI
.291 BA

Yep, a little better than Gonzalez's average year, but not that much better, and we all know how Bell did in 2003 and in 2005, the numbers are too ugly to even post here. The point is that Gonzalez will put up the same offensive numbers as Bell when Bell is playing right. Hearing that Bell is still having back problems doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his play.

The signing of Gonzalez was a shrewd and brilliant move by Gillick. Here is a guy that can take over the everyday duties at 3rd if Bell gets injured or doesn't peform, and for 3.5 Million less. And, by the way, his fielding percentage was .938 at 3rd last year vs. Bell's .951, so an argument could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but keep in mind that this was the first year Gonzalez played the position, he can only get better, and he wouldn't have to be all that much better to catch up to .951. Gonzalez's career fielding percentage is .973 vs. Bell's .966.

Baring injury, Bell will be the opening-day 3rd baseman, but if he doesn't hit well, look for a move to Gonzalez. Bell does crush left-handed pitching, so a platoon wouldn't be all that bad an idea, ala Lofton and Michaels in center last year. And of course there is Abraham Nunez who is a solid utility infielder who can also play 3rd, but he doesn't project to the numbers that Gonzalez or Bell should put up.

Random Thoughts
The small media frenzy around Abreu's potential trade situation was quite silly. Bobby is a professional and goes about his business in a very professional manner, all this stuff about him really covering up his true feelings is just weird to hear. Whether he is or isn't, does anyone believe he's so emotional about this he can't play up to his standards. C'mon, there's no crying in baseball! Go get 'em Bobby, I'm glad your still around...Speaking of Abreu, does anyone else think he should be batting second in the order instead of Rowand? The top of the order's job is to get on base, and Abreu is much better at finding first than Rowand. With the bats of Utley, Howard and Burrell, you don't really need Bobby in the middle of the order. Sure he is naturally a number 3 hitter, but with his speed and OBP, he could score 150 runs...The news of Utley dedicating himself to improving over the off-season has to be exciting for Phillies fans. This is a guy who already projects to be the best hitting second baseman in the league, yes better than Kent. This assumes Soriano does play the outfield or gets traded to the Red Sox, though he is only better in Fantasy terms since Soriano doesn't really get on base enough and strikes out a ton. Go "Dirtball", or as I like to think of him the Lenny Dykstra of the infield...Speaking of Lenny Dykstra, I like the comparisons of his all-out style of play to that of Aaron Rowand. A lineup with two Dykstras can't loose.

Phillies Round out the Rotation with Ryan Franklin

2006-01-08T16:24:00.000-06:00

After a disappointing off-season of transactions and in desperate need of another arm in the rotation, the Phillies have settled on Ryan Franklin. Formerly of the Seattle Mariners, Franklin is an average pitcher who logs a lot of innings, but doesn't inspire much excitement. In his own words, Ryan says "I don't want to say I wore out my welcome in Seattle, but I was ready to move on."

In looking into his career statistics, it's hard to find much to be hopeful about. His numbers are pretty consistent across the board. In looking at his past 3 years, Ryan has a 4.49 ERA, and that pretty much seems to be his ERA in about every other key area:

4.20 Home
4.77 Away
4.27 Night
5.06 Day
4.62 April
4.21 May
4.22 June
4.85 July
5.75 August
3.50 September
4.43 Pre-All Star
4.57 Post-All Star

As you can see, it's pretty consistent except for late in the year when he appears to wear down in August only to have a renaissance in September. Maybe Franklin can be a serviceable starter for the first half of the year, enough time to get Randy Wolf healthy and into the mix.

If you are looking for a ray of hope from Ryan Franklin, look to his 2003 season where he posted a 3.57 ERA, though he did give up a career worst 34 Home Runs, a stat that should scare most Phillies fans. With the fences moving back in left field, maybe it won't be as big of an issue, but pitchers that give up too many home runs outside of Citizens Bank Park are in some trouble inside the Bank.

I suppose the good news in this signing is that Ryan Madson should now stay put in the bullpen. With the loss of Wagner and Urbina, his arm will be greatly needed in late inning situations. Madson could conceivably become the closer for the Phillies if Tom Gordon falters; a scenario that could likely come about given Gordon's lack of closing experience the past several years. This assumes that Gavin Floyd is ready to take his place in the starting rotation, and lets all hope that Gavin is finally ready.

At best we can hope Franklin turns out to be another Cory Lidle type pitcher, at worst, he is cut by the All-Star break to make room in the rotation for Randy Wolf, basically Franklin is in town to eat up some innings and keep the Phillies in about half the games he pitches. It could be worse, think Eric Milton and all of those home run balls, but certainly not the way Gillick had drawn it up at the beginning of the off-season.

Welcome Ryan Franklin, and good luck.

Random Thoughts
What's with the continued Abreu rumors? Why is Gillick so intent on trading the Phillies best hitter? You got me. The most recent rumor is Tejada for Abreu. Not sure how that makes sense when the Phillies have Rollins at SS and are paying about the same money for Abreu as they would for Tejada. Maybe it just sounds cool to have Tejada and Tejeda on the same team...Speaking of Tejeda, he seems to be a forgotten man this off-season, after the year he had, I expected him to be shopped heavily. It seemed almost natural to offer Tejeda and Michaels to the A's for Barry Zito. The A's just love guys with potential, especially young pitchers. Ah well, maybe during the season then.

Slew of Recent Moves, What Gives?

2005-12-06T14:28:00.000-06:00

Since the trade of Jim Thome, the Phillies have been very busy with pitching, and not much of it is good news for improving the team.

Exit the Sandman
First, Billy Wagner bolted for the Mets, and who can blame him when the Mets are throwing money around like George Steinbrenner. $43 Million is way too much for a closer, even one as dominent as Wagner, but that's what you get in a free agent year that has mediocre talent all around. It's really a shame that Ed Wade didn't sign Wagner to the 3 year $24 Million contract that Wagner wanted during the season. Seems like quite a bargin now. Wagner will be impossible to replace and to make it worse will be facing off against the Phillies several times next year. The only plus to that is Wagner's track record with past teams, he didn't look like much against the Astros last year, so we can hold on to that hope.

Enter the Old Man
To make up for the loss of Billy Wagner, the Phillies promptly turned around and signed Tom "Flash" Gordon. While the Phillies weren't willing to guarantee a 4th year for the 34 year old Wagner, they had no problem guaranteeing a 3 year $18 Million contract for the 38 year old Tom Gordon. Did I mention how strange this free-agent season has become? If not, this deal epitomizes it. Kyle Farnsworth BTW signed a 3 year $17 Million deal to be Gordon's replacement in the Bronx. Yes, very strange indeed.

Had this deal been made 7 years ago, it would be great for the Phillies. You see, Gordon hasn't actually been a full-time closer since the 2001 season when he was with the Cubs. In fact, Gordon has only been a closer for 3 or 4 years of his 19 year career, he was great in '98. That said, Gordon has been a fabulous setup man the past 3 years, registering a 2.62 ERA and 18 Saves -- albeit in 36 chances, giving him a 50% success rate.

Gordon will probably be a competent reliever in 2006 -- read that to mean better than Mesa -- assuming he can improve his save conversion rate, beyond that, it will be up to his conditioning to decide if he stays effective, or becomes a high priced setup man. It seems to me that Trevor Hoffman would have been a better option, but the Phillies got the man they really wanted!? Hopefully Gillick knows something we don't and he can do the job.

Actually, if he can come through in the big games, that would be better than Wagner did for the team last year. As great as Wagner was, blowing an easy win against the Marlins and 2 against the Astros late in the year sealed the Phillies fate last year.

Phillies Sign No Name Relievier
Looking to bolster a depleated bullpen, the Phillies went out and signed Julio Santana. Who is this guy you ask? I don't really know either. Apparently Santana has been floating around the league since 1997, and started out last year in the minors after a stint in Japan the year before. As a role player in the Phillies bullpen, he might not be all that bad as he strikes out more than 1 batter per inning and managed a .221 BAA last year, both very solid stats. It seems that control is what plagues this journey-man reliever.

Speaking of a "depleated bullpen" I can't say that I quite understand that thought. Yes, the team lost Wagner and probably Urbina, but they still have Geary, Fultz, Madson and (ugh) Cormier. But, they also have Tejeda and Brito who have lively arms and can spot start. Hmm, maybe Urbina can get out of jail and help us out, then you could make an argument that this bullpen is better than last years, even without Wagner.

Phillies Sign No-Name Catcher
Yes, today's blog is centered on pitching and the aftermath of Wagner leaving, but the Phillies also signed a new backup catcher, which directly effects the pitching staff. While I don't know much about Sal Fasano, another journey-man who has been around since 1996, the wrap on him is that he is a good defensive backstop, which is a good thing to have. However, this signals the end of Todd Pratt's time in Philadelphia, which might not be a good thing. Pratt was Lieber's personal catcher last year, and Lieber credits Pratt with making him a more effective pitcher. For whatever reason, Lieber isn't as comfortable with Mike Lieberthal, which could lead to a drop off in production for the Phillies (cough) ace.

Random Thoughts
A lot of rumors have been going around recently regarding Abreu being traded. How can this be a good thing for the Phillies next year? Take away the teams best hitter and Gold Glove right fielder for a middle of the rotation starter. The big rumor around the Cardinal's Jason Marquis makes no sense what-so-ever. Why would we want the Cardinal's worst pitcher for our best hitter? Maybe we are making up for the Steve Carlton trade...With all the emphasis on rounding out the pitching staff and staying within budget, why aren't the Phillies jumping on re-signing Vicente Padilla. While Padilla had some issues last year, he was the most dependable pitcher the Phillies had over the second half. He also happens to be the best available pitcher on the market after Javier Vasquez, and it would take a trade of Abreu to get him...As for the 5th spot in the rotation, people seem to be pushing Ryan Madson into that role. Has everyone forgotten about Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. One of those guys can surely get the job done, why not get all of them into the mix, Tejeda and Brito can both strengthen the bullpen if they don't start. And, don't forget that Randy Wolf should be back after the All-Star break, though he would be a better option for filling in for whoever is hurt by then, and of course we can't be sure how he will pitch after his surgery. Though recent history with this procedure suggests that he should be just fine.

He Gone, an Ode to Jim Thome

2005-11-25T13:05:00.000-06:00

Jim Thome was an icon in Philadelphia the 3 years he was in town, and today that icon is moving to my home town of Chicago to play for the world champion Chicago White Sox. While it is sad to see Thome leave the Phillies after what he brought to this club, the move was badly needed to give Ryan Howard the chance to play everyday and to give the Phillies the payroll flexibility needed to find more pitching.

Thome is a great player, a great clubhouse guy and an all around great guy. His time in Philadelphia was short, but his story with the Phillies meant much more to this team than the left-handed power he brought to the field each day.

Overture
Prior to 2002, the Phillies were a team in search of an identity. With Scott Rolen's ascention to an elite player, Pat Burrell's arrival on the scene, and Bobby Abreu's emergence they had a fearsome 1-2-3 punch in the middle of the order. However, Rolen became a poison pill in the clubhouse, calling out the team as not being committed to winning, and finally turning down a long-term contract, forcing the Phillies to trade him to St. Louis. Prior to Rolen's fallout, the Phillies seemed to be moving in the right direction to become a contender, perhaps just a few more pieces away from contention. Now, the Phillies were missing a force in the middle of their lineup and searching for an answer.

With a new stadium being built, the Phillies knew they would be flush with money and were finally willing to spend the amount of money needed to field a team worthy of knocking off the Atlanta Braves and making a run at the World Series. The problem was, what moves to make.

Act I
Right around Thanksgiving of 2002, the Phillies started to make some bold moves to improve the team. Jim Thome signs an $85 million deal and thus changes the attitude of a ball club that was all too accustomed to loosing over it's 120 plus year history. The signing of Thome -- the largest contract in Phillies history -- showed everyone in baseball that Philadelphia was serious about fielding a winning team.

Thome rode into town with great fan fare, like a Roman general returning from a successful campaign against the Saxsons. Thome was instantly a hit with Phillies fans before playing a single game. Thome answered the fan fare by hitting 89 HR in his first 2 seasons and averaging 118 RBI. The Phillies narrowly missed the playoffs each year, and seemed just a few spare parts away from getting over the top.

Act II
2005 started out poorly for Thome with a back injury that limited his time in the lineup and effected his hitting. The Phillies came out of the gates slowly and looked like they were going to be burried in the competitive N.L. East. The fans started to boo and some of it was directed at Jim Thome. The season wore on and the Phillies clawed their way back into the division lead and had Thome coming back from the D.L. and all seemed to be good in the world again.

However, Thome's return weighed on the team as it was clear he wasn't the powerful force that he had been in 2003-04. The boos from the fans intensified. Thome finally hit the D.L. again on July 1 with elbow tendenitis. Once Thome went down, the Phillies called up young slugger Ryan Howard. A couple weeks after Howard arrived on the scene, the Phillies seemed to have new life and new hope for the post-season. With every game Howard continued clubbing the balls out of the ballpark and Thome started slipping to the back of fans' minds.

Thome finally shut his season down in August, electing to have elbow surgery, but the fans hardly noticed, his season ended producing just .207 with 7HR and 30RBI in 193AB. But the Phillies were in the thick of a playoff race and everyone knew that Ryan Howard was the key to getting them over the top. Howard did his part by hitting 22HR and 63RBI in just over half a season, including several key blasts to win games late in the season. Unfortunately, the Phillies finished the season 2 games behind the Braves and 1 Game behind the Astros for the Wild Card.

Act III
The Phillies enter the 2005 post-season with a new general manager, a budget that isn't allowed to expand much and several key personell questions.

The key questions, in no particular order:

- Who will be next year's closer?
- Who will play center field?
- How will the pitching staff be constructed after Lieber, Myers and Lidle?
- Who will play first base?

With the trade of Thome, Pat Gillick has answered two of those questions. First base is now Ryan Howard's domain, and hopefully will be for the next 15 years and 500 Home Runs. While the Phillies probably would have been satisfied with the White Sox giving up a couple of prospects and taking on close to half of Thome's remaining contract of $46M, the White Sox came up with much more. The Phillies not only get an additional $24M to work with, they also get a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in Aaron Rowand. Rowand looks like he could be a 20HR / 20SB guy who could fill in the second spot in the order.

Even though Thome is off to the White Sox, the Phillies still have the sense that they are one of the elite teams in the N.L. and are just a couple of pieces away from beating out the Atlanta Braves.

Prior to Thome's arrival in Philadelphia, winning was a rare accomplishment for the Phillies, with Thome's departure from Philadelphia, winning is now an expectation for Phillies fans. While many factors were involved in Philadelphia's renaissance at the turn of the century, perhaps none were as important as bringing Jim Thome to town.

Mr. Post Season Arives in Philly

2005-11-02T17:07:00.000-06:00

The Phillies announced that Pat Gillick is the man to replace Ed Wade as the GM for the team. Pat Gillick comes to Philadelphia with a pedigree of winning and for making the teams he heads playoff contenders. In a mere 9 years as a GM, Gillick boasts 3 different teams with playoff appearances, the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners.

Even more impressive is the fact that the Blue Jays won back-to-back World Series, in '92 and '93 (sigh). He was also at the helm when the Mariners won a record setting 116 regular season games.

What more could Phillies fans ask for than a guy who has proven himself over and over again. Hopefully he still has the fire left to get the Phillies over the hump. Gillick did say "I still have the passion and want the competitve edge." Interestingly enough, he also indirectly praised the job Ed Wade had done saying "I'm very honored to be a part of the Phillies, an outstanding franchise...There is a great foundation." Before Ed Wade, nobody would have mistaken the Phillies as an "outstanding franchise".

Congratulations to David Montgomery for commiting to Gillick before the Dodgers and Red Sox had a chance to snare him. The Dodgers had the chance last year and went with Paul DePodesta, who was promptly fired this year. Think that team is regretting not getting Gillick last year? The Red Sox are still dealing with the fact that Kid Theo is leaving, so they didn't have time to get into the fray.

Now the fun begins for Gillick and Phillies fans, dealing with Wagner and Urbina, figuring out what to do with Ryan Howard's bat and putting together the starting rotation. It should be an interesting off-season in Philly once again.

Random Thoughts
Way to go Gold Glove Bobby Abreu. It's about time you get the recognition you deserve as the cornerstone of the Phillies...The free agent list for the Phillies now includes Wagner, Urbina, Pratt, Terry Adams, Michael Tucker and Ramon Martinez. My vote is to sign Wagner and Urbina, don't even bother with Adams, Tucker and Martinez. Pratt is an interesting situation given his success last year. The Phillies really need to start grooming Lieberthal's replacement, so it would be a good opportunity to bring up Ruiz or Jaramillo to give them some big league experience. On the other hand, Pratt worked well with 17 game winner Jon Lieber, so it would be a shame to ruin that chemistry...Lofton hasn't filed for free-agency yet, so here's to hoping his .400+ OBP stays with the Phillies. That was one heck of a platoon with Jason Michaels, I for one am ready to see that again.

The Best News!

2005-10-30T17:45:00.000-06:00

It's been awhile since my last blog post. As a die-hard Phillies fan, I've been as frustrated about the end of the season as anyone. With so many postives going for the team -- Rollins hitting streak, a late season run against tough divisional matchups, the growing team chemistry, and a schedule advantage against the Astros -- it was tough to watch the season end on an error by the Cubs gold-glove shortstop.

Since then, there has been much to talk about in Phillies Nation -- Ed Wade's dismissal, the search for a new general manager, Wagner's decision to test free-agency -- but the extended frustration didn't make it seem worth talking about yet.

Now, the Phillies have received about the best news they could hope for, and it has nothing to do with the Phillies organization. Leo Mazzone is no longer the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves. To the lay-fan, this may not sound like much news to consider, but for those of us who follow the game intently, we know what this means.

Leo Mazzone along with Bobby Cox's arrival in Atlanta back in the early 1990's started one of the most amazing runs in pro-sports history -- a 15 year Division Title streak. Clearly the pitching dynasty that Mazzone lead was a huge key to that run. Just three times from 1992-2005 did the Braves not produce the best or second-best ERA in the Majors. That's pitching domination plain and simple. Now Mazzone moves along to the Baltimore Orioles to work his magic for one of the majors worst pitching staffs season in and season out.

Does this mean we can count the Braves out next year? Certainly not. Until someone beats the Braves, they have to be considered the favorite to win the division. However, without Mazzone, the team should begin to loose their grip on the best pitching staff in baseball. Now lets hope the Braves loose Furcal and really put themselves into a tough situation.

Random Thoughts
Ed Wade's dismissal doesn't come as a surprise, but was he really as bad as Phillies fans make him out to be? No, he didn't construct a team that could make it to the post-season, and he did a poor job at making trade deadline moves, but he leaves a team that is as successful as Philadelphia has seen since the late 70's. Considering the team has finished with a winning record the past 3 years and 4 of the past 5, this organization has turned a historic corner it would seem. The Phillies also boast one of the most fertile farm systems in baseball over recent years, which is a direct result of what Wade built. Wade leaves the Phillies in much better shape than he found them, but he couldn't beat the tandem of Mazzone and Cox and has become the scape goat...The Phillies are interviewing several new GM candidates and this person will be charged with getting the team over the 90 win hump and into the post-season. One name that is interesting is Houston's GM Gerry Hunsicker. He's an interesting choice since his first duty as the Phillies GM could be re-signing Billy Wagner. Wagner is the pitcher he traded to the Phillies because of payroll issues, only to turn around and sign Petitte, Clemens and then Beltran. Wagner hasn't had kind words for his old ballclub, and Hunsicker is the reason. Makes for an interesting situation...Speaking of Wagner and his choice to test free-agency, if we take the fireballing pitcher at his word, he really wants to stay in Philadelphia, and is just testing the waters know his true value. He is likely to find out that a 3 year 27 Million dollar offer is about as good as it gets. If last year was an indication, teams seem to be unwilling to sign a top pitcher for more than 7 Million per year, so the 10 Million Wagner is seeking may be out of the range of feasibility for other clubs. Can't blame the guy for testing the waters, and definitely hope to see him in the bullpen next year as a key component to the Phillies playoff run...how sad was it to watch the Padres in the playoffs knowing that the Phillies were a much better team. With the way the Cardinals were pitching and the Astros were hitting, if the Phillies had been in the place of the Padres, you just have to wonder what if? Ok, it's time to let last season go and start thinking about the next...Congrats to my home town White Sox, it was an amazing run. Wanna play the Phillies to see who is really the best team? Ok, this time I really mean it, time to let last season go.

The Stars are Aligning

2005-09-24T13:00:00.000-05:00

Is there a higher power at work to get the Phillies into the playoffs this year? Or, is this higher power setting up Phillies fans for a tragic ending?

The Storm
After being swept at home by the Wild Card leading Astros September 5-7, dropping out of the Wild Card lead and embarking on the toughest stretch of games of the season, the Phillies looked like they might be in some real trouble.

With the season on the line, the Phillies rose to the task and took 4 of 6 games from both the Marlins and the Braves. One of those games was a miraculous come from behind win in the ninth inning against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins. That win is even more amazing considering it came against this year's leading Cy Young candidate in the 9th inning of a 3 hit shutout. While it was astounding that the Phillies scored 10 runs in that 9th inning, it is equally astounding given the fact that prior to that game the Phillies had only come from behind after trailing in the 8th inning or later to win 1 game this year. That's right, only a single win the entire year in that situation.

However, the magic continued against the Braves last Wednesday, after Atlanta had come back to tie the game 6-6 and send it to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Ryan Howard came up and hit his first extra-base hit against a left-handed pitcher. That hit was a grand slam that stole the game from the Braves. The next day, Tim Hudson had a shutout working into the 8th innning. In an inexplicable move, Bobby Cox let Hudson hit in the bottom of the 8th with a runner on 3rd base and only 1 out. The Phillies made it out of the inning without giving up a run. Hudson who was well over the 100 pitch mark (116 I think) and fatigued, came out in the 9th and promptly gave up 4 runs to loose the game. That's the first gift Bobby Cox has ever given the Phillies, even the Braves fans were booing him for that decision.

After all of that, you would think the Phillies had used up all of their magic. And, coming into the 9th inning against the Reds last night with a chance to move a game closer to the Astros, the thrill looked to be gone. The Reds had come back from a 6-1 deficit and taken a 10-6 lead heading into the 9th. Remember, the Phillies have only come back to win twice (after the Marlins) this year in this sort of situation, so things looked bleak. However, that's when the hitting started and the Phillies erupted for a 5 run 9th inning to take the game 11-10.

Twice in one week? Crayziness you say? Certainly. So maybe a higher power is at work here. This sort of stuff never happens to the Phillies, and this late in the season during a playoff run to boot.

Stars Aligning
Looking forward, how do the Phillies chances look now? The often discussed schedule disadvantage the Phillies had on September 9th has now turned into a great advantage today. The Phillies finish up the season at the Reds, home against the Mets and at the struggling Nationals. The Astros finish up the season at a very tough Cubs team, at the Cardinals, and the finale at home against the same tough Cubs team. The Cubs will be the Phillies fan's second favorite team the rest of the way.

Aligned star one...facing the Cubs is significant because Greg Maddux is trying to win 15 games for the 18th straight year, already a major league record. He currently has 13 wins, and the Cubs are giving him 2 more starts, the first against Pittsburgh, and if he wins that game, the second start would be the season finale against the Astros. Maddux is very determined to win right now and has a 2.53 ERA and 3 wins in his 5 September starts.

Star two...Roger Clemens is also hurting and his next start is uncertain. He was supposed to oppose Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs today, but is bothered by a strained hamstring, forcing the Astros to start Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio, the former Phillies farm hand that was traded as part of the deal for Billy Wagner, could help the Phillies after all by loosing today to the Cubs. Of course, as I write this, the Cubs have given up 2 runs in the top of the first, that's alright though, the stars are aligned in the Phillies favor, and not the star of the Astros (we hope).

Star three...if the Phillies should end up the season tied with the Astros, there would be a one game playoff in Philadelphia. That's significant since the Phillies would be making a short trip back from Washington while the Astros would have to make a long trip in from Houston. Not to mention the home field advantage.

Star four...the Phillis head home to play the Mets after the Reds series. As reported by NY Newsday, the Mets are considering shutting Pedro Martinez down for the remainder of the season, rather than lead off the series against the Phillies.

Star five...the Nationals have gone to a 4 man rotation, meaning that Livan Hernandez's last start of the year should be in their final game against the Marlins, and he would miss the final series against the Phillies entirely.

All the Phillies need to do is win one more game than the Astros and find themselves with the Wild Card lead. Win 2 more than the Astros and the Phillies can avoid a one game playoff. The stars are indeed aligned, and this season is squarely in the Phillies hands. It should be a phantastic phinish to the season.

Random Thoughts
Thank the stars for Ryan Howard. This kid should defnitely win the Roookie of the Year Award. His stats are there 20HR / 56RBI / .290 BA, (leading rookies in HR and RBI with only half a season played) but his impact on the team is what should win it for him. Without Howard, the Phillies would be playing for next year right now. Message to Phillies management -- You have to keep Howard around for next year and beyond...Props to Jon Leiber for pitching like an ace this late in the year, and for dominating Atlanta in his career. Leiber's last 8 games against Atlanta 1.83ERA / .229BAA...Ryan Madson is really struggling lately, that Howard grand slam and last night's heroics wouldn't have been necessary if Madson had pitched scoreless innings both those games. Maybe the Phillies should be using Aaron Fultz in Madson's spot right now...David Bell is really making up for his early season misery, a grand slam last week, and a game winning 2 run shot last night. We didn't mean everything we said about you before David. Keep up the good work...JRoll is out of sight right now with a 28 game hitting streak. Hopefully it is finally getting through to Rollins -- Get on base, use your speed, and you will score with the lineup the Phillies have...Abreu continues to impress by playing through multiple injuries and still producing. He is a true gamer and the Phillies are lucky to have him.

Window of Opportunity Still Open

2005-09-11T19:07:00.000-05:00

It has been tough to write about the Phillies this month, with the heart-wrenching losses they have endured against key foes in the Wild Card race. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Phillies were in control of their destiny..."All we have to do is win games" was the battle cry, and heading into key games against all Wild Card contending teams, hopes were running high.

The first series against the Mets started out dubious, with a 4-6 loss, the Phillies 3rd in a row, and things were looking like they might fall apart. But, the team pulled through to win the series, and started off with a win against the Nationals. Now, things were looking good, fans were wondering how many games up on the Astros we could be if the team were to win the series against the Nationals and take the series against the Astros. 2, maybe 3 or possibly a 4 game lead was likely. And, what about the division leading Braves, there was a real possibility of getting with in a couple of games of Atlanta.

Then, the worst-case scenario happened, the Phillies drop 5 in a row, including a 3 game sweep by the Astros.

Deja-vu all over again?
It certainly was beginning to feel like last year when the Phillies were starting to make a charge in the division and had just come off of a sweep (the Met's if I recall) and headed in to play a floundering Astros team. The Phillies were promptly swept, then went out and sweep a 4 game series against the Rockies, when they faced off against the Astros again. Of course, the Phillies were swept a second time and never really recovered to challenge for the division or the Wild Card again. Last year, the damage was done by Carlos Beltran. He actually damaged more than the Phillies last year in his heroic charge to within a game of the World Series. This year, the Astros are doing the damage with their starting pitching, and good pitching always seems to shut down the Phillies. In two years, the Phillies are 0-12 against the Astros, and at key points in the year, hopefully they will be on the early part of the Phillies schedule next year.

The Pesky Fish
Coming into the Malins series, the Phillies were facing a desparate situation and had to win the series, and really needed to sweep the fish to stay in the race. Goal accomplished in the 12-5 drubbing of the first game, and things were really looking up last night with Brett Meyers on the hill and the Phillies leading the game late, when another one of those heart-wrenching losses occured. "Not again" you were saying, "it couldn't possibly be another one-run loss." Yep, that's what happened, the Phillies 4th one-run loss in the past 8 games.

Coming into the final game of the series, the Phillies were in a must-win situation. Lose this game and the team falls 3 games behind the fish and further behind the Astros. Luckily, the bats came alive and the game turned into an 11-1 laugher. With the Astros dropping their game to the Breweres, the Phillies have managed to keep within 1 1/2 games of the Wild Card leading Astros. Winning 2 was great, but the Phillies really should have swept, especially when none of the Marlin's starters in the series made it past the 3rd inning.

Looking Ahead
The next week of games is crucial to deciding the Phillies post-season fate. The Braves come to town for 3 games, then the Phillies head out to Florida and Atlanta. First, the good news, the Wild Card race is essentially down to the Astros, Marlins and Phillies. The Astros and Marlins play each other, so one of the teams will take a hit (hopefully thats the Astros if we know what's good for us).

Now the bad news...it looks like Vincente Padilla could be done for the season. Prior to the All-Star break, you might have said "Who cares?". But since the break, Padilla has been on fire and pitching up to his often cited "potential". He is definitely being skipped tomorrow, but hopefully he can pitch his final 3 turns in the rotation. Robinson Tejeda is also hurting, meaning the Phillies will be leaning on Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd to turn in some strong innings. This creates some tough match-ups agains the Braves:

Monday: Brito vs. Hudson
Tuesday: Floyd vs. Thompson
Wednesday: Lidle vs. Ramirez

Hudson is one of the Brave's aces and Floyd has a 20.25 ERA against Atlanta. Yes, the odds are stacked agains the team heare, at least the Phillies won't have to tangle with John Smoltz.

The goal for the next 3 series is to win each of them some-how, some-way. Yes, that's the goal of any series played, but if the Phillies can take 2 out of 3 against the Braves-Marlins-Braves, then their post-season chances will look a lot brighter. Drop three-in-a-row again, and it will be time to start thinking about next season.

The window of opportunity is still open, and if the Phillies can just win, they will be in control of their destiny.

Random Thoughts
Kudos to Jimmy Rollins for putting together a 17 game hitting streak. As everyone knows, as Rollins OBP goes, so does the Phillies offense, and he is capable of maintaining a hot streak through the remainder of the season, which would be good news to the club...Double kudos to Ryan Howard for doing his best Jim Thome impersonation. This kid is looking like the real deal, posting 16HR / 44BI / .286 in 69 games this year. That projects out to 38 HR / 103 BI. If he can learn how to hit lefties, Howard could be a mainstay for a long time. So what should the Phillies do about Thome? That's a topic for another time...As long as we are handing out kudos, let's pass some along to the starting pitching. Lieber has been lights-out lately, Padilla has been great and Meyers has kept up his quality starts, all leading to close games and solid innings pitched, lessening the stress on the bullpen.

Please Release Cormier, Please

2005-08-28T22:00:00.000-05:00

While watching the Diamondbacks and Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, I was very disturbed with Charlie Manuels choice to use Rheal Cormier.

With the Phillies in the process of crawling their way back into the game, Rheal Cormier comes in to pitch with the team down 6-4. Now, keep in mind that Arizona has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. In fact, if the season ended today, they would have the worst ERA of any relief staff since the days of the St. Louis Browns (according to ESPN). The point being, this game was very much within reach.

Back to the game situation and Cormier on the mound...Royce Clayton comes up first and is out on a web gem of a play made by David Bell. After Clayton, the next 3 batters reach base, including a 3 run homer by Troy Glaus. At this point, everyone in the stadium is looking at Charlie Manuel to come and yank Cormier. But, as if to punish Cormier further, Charlie Manuel leaves him out on the mound to give up 2 more base hits. By the time the inning comes to and end, Cormier has pitched 1/3 of an inning and given up 4 earned runs and now the game is out of reach at 10-4.

Why was Cormier brought in at all? The Phillies have every pitcher in the well-rested bullpen available thanks to a day off on Monday. Was Cormier really the right choice? Obviously not in retrospect, but shouldn't Manuel stop showing the loyalty to Cormier and not use him in important situations. It's clear he isn't the same pitcher from the last couple of years.

In case Manuel isn't checking the stats, here are the ugly numbers:

Cormier's monthly ERAs and BAAs
April 5.14 / .333
May 6.75 / .304
June 5.14 / .278
July 5.56 / .307
August 11.37 / .353

Manuel recently had this to say about Cormier "He's going to pitch big innings for us," Manuel said. "We've got to get him sharp. It seems like this year he might have one or two good outings, and then all of a sudden ... He's had nagging injuries. It seems like it's set him back. I have a lot of confidence in Cormier, especially when he gets work."

Here's the question, when has he done well? Why is there any confidence left in Cormier? As we can see by his monthly stats, the best month this year was June when he had a 5.14 ERA and .278 BAA, not exactly great numbers. It's understandable to look at his track record and think he will break out of this funk, but why put him into high pressure situations when plenty of other arms are available in the bullpen? If Manuel needs a left handed option out of the pen, Aaron Fultz is a much better choice.

The original plan for Cormier was to use him as a lefty specialist, but his stats against lefties haven't been all that great either, with him giving up a .264 BAA on the year.

Despite Cormier's struggles, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the major leagues and are constantly consider the best bullpen (by far) of the Wild Card contenders. If you take Cormier out of the equation, this team has a lights out bullpen.

With the Phillies in the heat of a Wild Card race, they have to seriously consider dumping Cormier, he isn't getting any better, and at the age of 38, his skills appear to be declining dramatically. The team can easily bring in a quality arm like Geoff Geary to replace Cormier in the bullpen. With the stretch the Phillies have coming up against the N.L. East, the team can't continue to have patience in Cormier regaining his form.

Random Thoughts
Welcome to the team Michael Tucker. With the trade of a no-name minor league pitcher, Tucker becomes a solid left-handed hitter of the bench for the Phillies. Tucker is a versatile player that can play all of the outfield positions and has good speed on the bases...Ryan Howard just continues to impress in Thome's abscence and is starting to look like a future All-Star slugger. Hopefully the Phillies can find a team in the off-season to take on part of Thome's contract...Wagner has backed off his demand to be re-signed before Labor Day and now looks like he really wants to stay with the team. As one of the best closers in the majors, he can be a key to the Phillies team for the next few years. If the Phillies do sign Wagner, that could signal the departure of Thome because of payroll concerns...Lidle hits the DL, and it could be a good thing for the Phillies. He hadn't been throwing well lately and could probably use the extra rest. This also opens up the opportunity for a youngster like Eude Brito or Gavin Floyd to throw a game or two, which really can't be that much worse than what Lidle might have done...The next 22 games for the Phillies are against Wild Card contenders. This will be the stretch run of the season that decides what the Phillies will be doing in October.

On a Roll, Let's Keep it Going

2005-08-22T12:09:00.000-05:00

The September pennant stretch is quickly approaching, and the Phillies have put themselves into the thick of contention. With just 37 games remaining, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in the Wild Card lead and only 3 1/2 games behind the Braves for the N.L. East Division Title.

Looking Ahead
The Phillies now embark on a 12 game road trip (their longest of the season) that could be crucial to their final position in the standings. Luckily, the first 6 road games come against the N.L. West where the Phillies are 19-6 so far this season. The trip starts off against San Francisco, a team that is just 6-15 against the N.L. East this year and missing Barry Bonds. The Phillies won't have to face Jason Schmidt in the series, making a series win very possible -- at this point in the season it should almost be expected.

After facing the Giants, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that is 9-16 against the N.L. East this year. Again, this should be a series that the Phillies ought to expect to win.

Should the Phillies win the first 2 series on this road trip, they will be in good shape heading into a very difficult stretch run that begins with the Mets and the Nationals on the road. It won't get any easier when the Phillies return home to face the Astros, Marlins and Braves.

Should the west coast swing go well, the season likely comes down to how well the Phillies play their next homestand. That homestand provides a chance to put the the team's closest rivals down in the standings. Each game will be magnified since the count twice as much -- a win for the Phillies is a loss for a close competitor and vice-versa.

Random Thougts
Why is Cormier still pitching in key situations? The loyalty is understandable given his past year's successes, but this year he is very hittable. Since the All-Star break he has a 7.36 ERA and .304 BAA. Maybe he should only face left-handed batters on the road. His road stats are 3.86 ERA and .197 BAA and left-handers are only hitting .264 off of him this year...Speaking of lefty relievers, where is the love for Aaron Fultz? Since the All-Star break; 1.93 ERA, .169 BAA. This year against left-handed batters; .215 BAA...it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice the differences in those numbers, hopefully someone will tell Charlie Manuel...is it too early to play off-season armchair GM? Even if it is, here are some thoughts...why not trade Thome and Bell to any team that will take their contracts, then, with the money the team saves, sign Aubrey Huff to play 3B and retain Billy Wagner, while handing the everyday 1B job over to Ryan Howard...Why wasn't Gavin Floyd called up for the start against the Pirates?...no offense to Eude Brito, he did a great job, but shouldn't Floyd be given another chance this year?...On that thought, is Tejeda's amazing run at it's end? His last outing was pretty ugly against the worst offense in the league. Maybe it was a bad day, the next outing or two should tell the tail...Roster expansion in a couple of weeks, so we should see some faces we have all been waiting for -- Floyd, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Roberson could all help the team in the final month.

Thome is Done. Does Anyone Care?

2005-08-11T10:53:00.000-05:00

Don't take that title the wrong way. Jim Thome has certainly been a dominant force in the middle of the Phillies lineup the past couple of years, averaging 45HR, 118BI, and his production will certainly be missed. The guy is also a favorite among teammates and fans alike, so you can't help but feel bad for Big Jim, knowing that he wants to play and produce as much as anyone else wants him too. But, the Phillies now have to move on knowing that Thome is 99% likely to have season ending surgery. We all wish him the best and hope for a speedy recovery.

Playoff Bound?
The question now becomes...Can the Phillies make the playoffs without Thome's bat in the middle of the order. Certainly, Ryan Howard is cushioning the blow of loosing Thome for the rest of the season. In fact, Thome hasn't been producing much all year (hence the title of this article). Now we know it is due to his arm troubles. Not to slight Thome's ability, but having Ryan Howard in the lineup is proving to be more productive than having Jim Thome play through an injury.

Thome: 193AB, 7HR, 30BI, 26R, .207BA
Howard: 145AB, 8HR, 27BI, 21R, .276BA

Ed Wade should be commended for holding onto Howard through the trading deadline and giving this team a chance to continue it's run at the playoffs. Remember the reports at the trading deadline were that Thome was going to be back very soon. By keeping Howard, the Phillies can at least replace 2/3 of the expected production from Thome. At Howard's current pace, he projects out to be a 30HR, 100BI hitter over a full season, so not the huge downgrade at first that playing Thomas Perez or Todd Pratt would have represented.

Yes, the Phillies are still very much in the playoff race. They have done it all season without Thome, or at times without the same Thome they were used too. Still, this team is 4th in the National League in Batting Average, Runs Scored and Runs Batted In. So, the success of the Phillies doesn't really rest on having more power in the lineup, it really comes down to solid pitching efforts from the starters.

Next Season
It's never too early to think ahead, and next season Ed Wade has some tough decisions to make. With Howard you have a 30HR, 100BI bat in the lineup that is making near league minimum. If you can move Thome, that could create the payroll flexibility needed to retain Wagner and sign a top starting pitcher. Going purely by the numbers, the Phillies would seem to be better off with a slight dip in production from 1st base, with an increase in the quality of innings pitched by the starting rotation. Just think if the money spent on Thome this year was going to Pedro Martinez instead. Where would the Phillies be now in that scenario.

While this may be one strategy that Wade persues, it will be tough to find a team that Thome will be happy to go to (and waive his no-trade clause), though with the re-current injuries of the past 2 years, he might be better suited to being a DH in the American League.

The other direction Wade could go is to use the rest of this season to showcase Ryan Howard's bat, with the goal of trading him for the top starting pitcher the Phillies need. This creates a very tight budget, especially considering a top line pitcher will cost something more than Ryan's salary. This could mean having to let Wagner go to free agency, or getting creative and restructuring a contract or two. Mike Lieberthal comes to mind as a possiblity for that scenario.

If Howard finishes off the season strong, and the Phillies make the playoffs, 1st base will become the source of much off-season debate among Phillies Nation.

Handicapping the Atlanta Braves

2005-08-03T02:16:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals - Odds: 20-1)
Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves
It's becoming a broken record with the Atlanta Braves and their unprecedented 13 straight division titles. Their streak goes so far back, that it spans more than one National League division. The broken record continues with the Braves loosing core talent every off-season, but somehow pulling off high value trades and picking pitchers out of nowhere to replace those who left.

This year, the Braves loose their best hitter; J.D. Drew (a Philly fan favorite), and 2 of their top pitchers Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright and the pundits all say this is it for the 13 time winners of the N.L. East. But somehow they land Tim Hudson and Danny Kolb, allowing John Smoltz to move back into the rotation and all of the sudden they have a stronger rotation than last year. While the Braves tried to replace Drew with the likes of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan, surprisingly (that's sarcasm) that didn' t work out for them and they were forced to go with rookies at the corner outfield positions. And, this has paid dividends for the Braves as guys like Francoeur, McCann, Orr, and Betemit have been steady contributers to the team, combining for 407 ABs, (8 fewer than Rafael Furcal) and are posting 14 HR / 43 RBI / .312 BA.

The beat goes on and the Braves have ascended to the top of the N.L. East since the All Star Break, and have opened a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nationals, placing them in a strong position to win their 14th straight division title.

Keys to Winning
Just play out the rest of the games and Bobby Cox will figure a way to win. That's the only explanation for how this team can continue to win every year with the average talent they put on the field. If you want proof, just think for a minute how players who have left the team in recent years have done for their new clubs. We aren't talking about their big 3 in the rotation from the 90's, but the other guys who filled in around the team's core and had career years with the Braves. Milwood, Wright, Lopez and the inexplicably healthy J.D. Drew come to mind as recent defectors, but there are also the bit players like Mercker, Remlinger and Vinny Castilla who also seemed to trive under Bobby Cox, only to find life outside of Atlanta to be much harder.

The Braves success has always been built around pitching, and Leo Mazzone is to be commended for the job he has done year in and year out. While he was blessed with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in the 90s, he has maintained the same success since then and the pitching remains a strength of the team. Smoltz and Huson are the 2 aces, Hampton and Ramirez are the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys, and a bunch of fill-ins have covered able-y for the injured John Thompson.

The core of the team is strong with Furcal and Giles setting the tables and the Jone's knocking them in. After that, there are a bunch of unproven youngsters filling in the lineup. While they have produced so far, one of the weaknesses of the Braves might be the seemingly imminent slumps that rookies are prone too. If they start to slump, this team could fall on some hard times and possibly come back to earth in the standings.

The only true weakness this team seems to have is in the bullpen. Danny Kolb was counted on to be the closer, and has pitched poorly. Chris Reitsma has filled the closer's role in fine fashion, and with the trade for Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen gets a boost from a 100 mph fireballer. The rest of the bullpen is so-so, and teams can score in the late innings off the Braves. Shoring up the pen, which Farnsworth will help to do, is a key to the Braves winning at a more steady pace in the last 2 months of the season.

The Odds
Every year people come out and say this team has lost too many key players and can't possibly win the division again, and every year Bobby Cox finds a way to win the division. With their track record, pretty much everyone has the same quote that goes something like; "until someone beats them, the Braves have to be the favorites to win the division." Bodog Sportsbook gives the Braves a 10-1 chance of winning the World Series, perhaps that's a little kind, this is Atlanta after all with 12 failed attempts at winning it all in the past 13 playoffs. So maybe it's better to look at their odds of winning the N.L. East. Those odds are 4-1 by the way.

The Bottom Line
It's like a broken record for the past 13 years. The Braves win the N.L. East, but fail to win when it counts. So, really this team has close to a 100% chance of making the playoffs, but maybe they will have that slide everyone has been waiting for the past 13 years. It could happen. Still, Midway Phillies gives the Braves an 80-20 chance of making the playoffs. For Phillies fans and fans of the rest of the N.L. East teams you almost have to concede the N.L. East title and play for the Wild Card. It's worked for the Marlins twice, why not the Phillies?

Handicapping the Washington Nationals

2005-08-02T03:00:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets - Odds: 45-1)
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)

The Washington Nationals
Last year's Montreal Expos have moved to the nations capital and are now the Washington Nationals. After the first half of the season, perhaps the team should be renamed the "Washington OneRuns". Through the All Star break, the Nationals had a major league best 24-9 (.727) record in one run games, and were sitting on top of the N.L. East by several games. This amazing record came about through a combination of great pitching, timely hitting and a dominant closer. But as we discussed on July 10, this was as much luck as it was talent and the team was expected to regress back to the mean of winning as many as they were losing in one run affairs.

Since the All Star break, the Nationals have been on a major slide, going 4-13 to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Braves in the N.L. East. Included in that record is an 0-8 mark in one run games, so it seems the Nationals have regressed back to the mean in a hurry, as they now have a 24-17 (.585) record in one run games on the season. Even with their post All Star Break slide, the Nationals find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race just 1 game behind the streaking Astros.

Keys to Winning
This team is built around pitching, though it wasn't by design, rather a result of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Livan Hernandez leads the team with a 13-4 record and 3.27 ERA. More importantly has been the ability to work very deep into almost every game he pitches, throwing a league leading 165.1 innings. This is nothing new for Hernandez, as he has lead the way for innings pitched the last few years. Estaban Loaiza (6-6, 3.54 ERA) and John Patterson (4-3, 2.60 ERA) have also benefitted from the pitcher-friendly surroundings and have logged 250 innings between them. Having 3 pitchers work this deep into games, keeps the pressure off of the bullpen, which is very important to a team down the stretch. Yes Phillies fans, you should be concerned about this in Philadelphia.

Chad Cordero has been the most dominant closer in the majors this year, with a 1.13 ERA and 35 Saves. He still has an outside shot of beating Bobby Thigpen's all time saves record of 57, but the Nationals will have to get back on a one run winning binge to help him out. Luis Ayala (7-6, 2.90 ERA) is one of the better setup men around, and has had a splendid year. The combination of the starters pitching deep into games and having a great setup man and dominant closer is the key to this teams success. If they have any hiccups in these areas, they can loose a lot of games quickly.

The hitting is the weakness of the Washinton Nationals. They are next to last with a .253 BA; only the Pirates are worse at .252. They are only better than 3 other teams with a .323 OBP, and are dead last with 73 HR and 404 Runs scored. The next closest teams are San Francisco (82 HR) and Pittsburgh (421 Runs), and neither of those teams are making much of a run at the post-season. Perhaps it's a symtom of a pitchers park, but this team isn't used to scoring many runs, meaning they should be focused on running the bases and manufacturing scoring opportunities. However, the team is also dead last with 28 SB, the next closest team is Arizona with 38.

With team hitting stats like these, it's clear the National's season hinges on scoring more runs. That task falls squarely on the shoulders of Carlos Guillen (.310 / 19 HR / 58 RBI), Nick Johnson (.319 / 9 / 45), Brad Wilkerson (.259 / 6 / 36), Preson Wilson (.253 / 17 / 53 -- mostly as a Rocky), and Vinny Castilla (.246 / 6 / 45). Guillen has clearly led the team, and is a powerful bat in the middle of the lineup and should continue to serve as that for the rest of the season. Nick Johnson has battled injuries all year, but is very productive when in the lineup, the Nationals need him to be healthy the rest of the year. Wilkerson has slumped since last year's breakout campaign, and the Nationals are missing his offense. Preston Wilson has struggled away from Coors, as many expected, and will have to regain some of his Coors Field style hitting magic to help the Nationals. Castilla was a suspect signing in the off-season -- he is one of those Coor's Field phenoms -- and has been struggling mightily this year at RFK. As unlikely as it seems, Castilla and Wilson have to regain some of their old form for the Nationals to get their hitting on track.

The Odds
This team was expected to finish close to where the Expos finished the past few years, and that means the expectations were for them to dwell in the basement. A lot of people were guardedly optimistic on this team up to the All Star Break, but since they have fallen flat in the past weeks, they aren't finding much optimism left. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Nationals a 20-1 chance of winning the World Series, and you have to be wondering just who is making up those odds. Apparently not someone who follows baseball closely.

The Bottom Line
Look, the Nationals have had a very good season and they should be proud of what they have accomplished in their first year in our nations capital. But, with the way this team is currently constructed, there isn't much of a reason to believe they can beat out the highly competitive teams in the N.L. East. Midway Phillies is being kind and giving the Nationals a 50/50 chance of making the post-season, but we give them the same odds of ending up in the cellar.

Handicapping the New York Mets

2005-08-01T02:15:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins - Odds: 25-1)
New York Mets
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)

The New York Mets
The Mets were the biggest off-season movers and shakers in the N.L. East, signing the best available free-agent hitter and pitcher, along with other moves to strengthen their pitching staff. Big things were expected this year out of the Big Apple (in Flushing as well as the Bronx), but so far things have been shakky, with one of their marquee signings working out better than expected, and the other falling flat.

At the outset of the season, the money would have been on Pedro Martinez to be the one to fall flat, or more likely to come up injured. However, Pedro has been pitching like the ace that he is, posting a 12-3 record with a 2.76 ERA and 155 Ks in 150 innings. And, he's averaging over 7 innings an outing, after being thought of as a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. In his 21 starts, Pedro has thrown 6 innings in only 5 of them, the rest have gone for 7 or more, including 2 complete games.

Carlos Beltran has been the opposite of Pedro this year. After the monster playoff run he had with the Astros and 4 straight seasons with at least 24 HR and 31 SB, big things were expected of him in the Big Apple. Many experts were picking Carlos to make the 40/40 club this year, but to date he has 12 HR and 6 SB to go along with a .262 BA. At this point he will be lucky to make the 20/20 club, hardly worth the millions he signed for.

Even with Beltran's struggles, the Mets find themselves in the thick of the N.L. East and Wild Card races, currently 8 games behind the Braves and 4 games behind the Astros.

Keys to Winning
The main issues with the Mets center around 2 areas:
1) On base percentage at the top of the lineup
2) Closing the door on a lead

David Wright and Cliff Floyd have been the leaders of the offense and lead the team with .296 and .278 BAs respectively. Wright's .374 OBP also leads the team. The problem is that both Wright and Floyd hit in the middle of the order where they are counted on to drive in runs. Jose Reyes has been counted on to be the lead-off hitter, deliving a .301 OBP so far this year. It would be easy to blame the team for using his speed as an excuse to have him at the top of the lineup instead of an OBP guy, but the Mets don't really have anyone else that can lead-off. After Reyes comes either Mike Cameron (.341 OBP), or Miguel Cairo (.309 OBP) who is filling in for the injured Kaz Matsui (.284 OBP), so the bases are rather empty when the big bats come up, and Cameron is a better middle-of-the-order guy. Unless someone can teach Reyes how to be more patient (15 BB in 453 AB) -- Sound familiar Phillies fans? At least Rollins is a little better than Reyes leading off -- the middle of the order will continue to come up with few runners on base.

The glaring problem the Mets faced coming into the season was a shakky bullpen. Braden Looper is the closer, but had never had a ton of success. He can best be described as a pitcher who can get it done more often than not. Looper and Phillies cast off Roberto Hernandez are the only 2 getting it done out of the bullpen this year. After the downslide Hernandez has had the past 4 years, he has pitched surprisingly well this year, posting a 1.76 ERA. The question is, how long can that success last on a 40 year old arm that will be counted on for 70+ innings this year -- which would be the most he has thrown since the year 2000 with Tampa Bay. After those 2, the bullpen has been a mess. The Mets have been so desperate for help out of the pen that they even resorted to signing Danny Graves after he was cut from the Reds. Graves currently owns a 7.39 ERA. The Mets had to find relief help before the trade deadline to make a serious run at the playoffs, but alas no help has come. Unless they can find a way to pull off a post trade deadline deal, they will continue to struggle to close out games.

The Odds
Early in the season, the odds seemed good that the Mets could unseat the Braves as N.L. East champs. Today, not many would give them a chance to make it out of the basement and into a post-season spot. Bodog's lines are down today, but Bet Gameday gives the Mets a 60-1 chance of winning the World Series, or about the same likelihood of San Francisco making it 66-1.

The Bottom Line
Unless Beltran puts together a late season surge like he did last year for the Astros, and Pedro can throw a few more complete games, this team looks destined to be playing for next year. Midway Phillies gives the Mets a 30-70 chance against making the playoffs.

Handicapping the Florida Marlins

2005-07-29T00:12:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs - Odds: 30-1)
Florida Marlins
New York Mets (Monday)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday)

The Florida Marlins
The nemesis of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Fightin' Fish are currently tied with the Phils at 2 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. Don't look now, but the Phillies are 7-6 against the Marlins this year...reverse the curse! This team is an enigma really, they have never won the N.L. East, but have won the World Series twice (that's 1 more than the Braves in their historic run). The Wild Card has certainly treated this team right.

As one of the favorites to win the N.L. East coming into the season, the Marlins have had success at times and plenty of let downs through the year, placing them in a position of potential sellers in this season's trade deadline frenzy. However, the Marlins have been winning lately and are in decent playoff position, so all of that trade talk surrounding A.J. Burnett seems to be off the table. Of course, the trade deadline is Sunday night, so he could still be traded. If Burnett does go to another team, it likely signals that the Marlins are playing for next year, though you can never count them out.

Keys to Winning
The Florida Marlins are a well built squad that features strong young pitchers, great young hitters and speed to burn at the top of their lineup...oh yeah, and the defense isn't too shabby either.

The pitching staff is loaded with Beckett 9-6 3.33 ERA, Willis 13-6 3.23 ERA, and Burnett 7-6 3.48 ERA leading the way. These starters don't allow many runs to score at all, keeping them in most every game they start. The only issues have been with consistency and health. Willis has been noted as an all-or-nothing type of pitcher who expends a lot of energy with his high leg kick. This has lead to the theory that he tends to break down at the end of the season. The D-Train is still young, so patterns are hard difficult to predict, it could be the Florida sun, or the number of innings pitched at a young age that have caused his past break-downs. Josh "Blister" Beckett is a legitimate ace when pitching, but his blister problems each year have limited his innings. His top season for innings pitched was last year with 157. Beckett was just activated from the DL (oblique this time), but it could just be a matter of time before he is out again. Burnett is a lot like Vincente Padilla, great stuff with average results. As noted above, he may not even be on the team next week. For the Marlins to continue to challenge for the post-season, they will need him to go every 5th day.

The hitting is pretty solid from top to bottom, with Cabrera leading the way doing his best Albert Pujols impression (.349 BA, 23 HR, 74 RBI). The kid is getting there. Pierre after a very slow start has been turning it on more recently and now has 32 SB, and is always a threat to score when he's on base. Though he has looked an aweful lot like Jimmy Rollins this year with a pedestrian .327 OBA and 63 Runs (Rollins has a .317 OBA and 64 R). Delgado, Encarnacion and Castillo are putting up solid numbers to anchor the offense. The sore spot in the lineup has been Mike Lowell's disappearance this year (5 HR, 44 RBI, .236 BA). David Bell looks like a better option at 3rd these days. The Marlins have made no secret of their desire to move Lowell and his bloated contract, but that would likely come at the cost of losing Burnett. The other area of concern for the offense is Paul Lo Duca, he's had a solid year so far, but historically fades down the stretch, which could hamper the Marlins chances.

The Odds
The Fish are a very pesky bunch and always seem to find a way to win, especially down the stretch run, and especially against the Phillies. You can never count them out with the talent they bring to the field. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Marlins a 25/1 shot at winning the World Series, and who could bet against them with their recent success.

The Bottom Line
If the starters stay healthy and don't break down during the stretch run, this team has a chance to outright win the division. But, since the Wild Card is more their style, the Fish have to be considered serious contenders to make the post-season. As long as Burnett is still on the team, Midway Phillies gives the Fish a 60-40 chance to make the post season. Without Burnett, that changes to 40-60.

Handicapping the Chicago Cubs

2005-07-28T01:06:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers - Odds: 125-1)
Chicago Cubs
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Chicago Cubs
Ah, the hometown team finally. What can be said about the loveable loosers and one of the most popular franchises in baseball history that hasn't already been said? Well, plenty actually. First of all, this is a team that Phillies fans should really relate to, both historically and this year. From a long history of loosing (nearly 100 years now) to the all-or-nothing approach from the offense, to playing in a home run friendly ballpark, to struggling with on-base percentage at the top of the order, the Cubs mirror the Phillies in many ways.

Last year the Cubs were coming off of a cursed playoff loss and were anchored by their 5 aces, making them the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. East. Prior and Wood broke down and the season was lost. This year, the Cubs decided they only needed 4 aces, letting Matt Clement go to the Boston Red Sox (oops), didn't need Sosa and Alou's home runs, and didn't need a true closer. By the time the season got started, both Prior and Wood were facing significant time on the DL, Latroy Hawkins was butchering save chances and the left field platoon was producing very little.

Luckily for the Cubs, a lot has gone right. Derreck Lee is looking like a legitimate triple crown contender, Aramis Ramirez is following up his monster production from last year and Jeromy Burnitz is making Cubs fans forget about Sammy Sosa... Glendon Rusch has been very effective when starting and Ryan Dempster has been reliable as a closer.

With the combination of big lumber in the lineup and pitchers who can't stay healthy, the Cubs have become prone to streaks this year, winning 7 games in-a-row once and loosing 7 and 8 games in-a-row this season. With all of the streaks, let downs from the starters and pick-me-ups from the hitters, the Cubs find themselves 11.5 games behing the Central leading Cardinals, but only 3 games out of the Wild Card race.

Keys to Winning
For the Cubs it comes down to one thing. H-E-A-L-T-H. If they have all of their players on the field, this a team that is tough to beat. Kerry Wood and Nomar Garciapara have been the 2 most important injuries to the team this year, and it appears that Nomar is on the road back, but Wood appears on the path to the bullpen. Could Wood be a dominant closer? He certainly has the stuff, but the Cubs struggled much of the beginning of the year with their closer situation until settling on the reliable Ryan Dempster. Does it really make sense to take an ace, make him a reliever, and juggle the bullpen again? Perhaps, given the injury history, but it can't be great news for the starting rotation who is now down to 2 1/2 aces (it's a game-to-game thing with Maddux).

The Cubs have a couple of other key needs as well; an effective lead-off hitter and a productive left fielder. Dubois was traded to the Indians for Jody Gerut, who could prove to be a productive bat lower in the order. In a surprising move, the team sent Corey Patterson, their free swinging leadoff hitter to the minors to learn how to get on base. In the interim, Jerry Hairston has been manning center, and the lead-off spot -- and most importantly, getting on base. If the Cubs can improve just a little bit in these areas, the middle-of-the-order powerhouse should be able to drive in a lot more runs. Even with the success Lee has had this year, his .366 BA could easily have him over 100 RBI (he has 81) if he had more runners on ahead of him. Take Manny Ramirez as an example, a .275 BA (almost 100 points lower than Lee) and 92 RBI.

The Odds
Everyone seems to be on the Cubs bandwagon, with Prior mowing down the league and Lee hitting them out, this team can streak it's way to the playoffs. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Cubs a 30-1 chance of winning the World Series. Don't they know this team hasn't won it all since 1908? Maybe if the Red Sox can do it, so can the Cubs.

The Bottom Line
If Prior stays healthy, Wood becomes a dominant closer and Nomar comes back strong, this team will be a force to be reckoned with. 3 if's is a bit tough this late in the season, so Midway Phillies gives them a 50-50 chance of making the post-season. Not surprisingly, that's the same chance we give the Phillies, yet another comparison. This is a team that will be close the Phillies in the standings all the way down the pennant stretch, so keep your eyes on their situation.

Handicapping the Milwaukee Brewers

2005-07-27T00:10:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks - Odds: 60-1)
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is one of the surprise teams of the season. Long considered a team stuck in a market that can't support a winner, Milwaukee went out and spent a little money signing Brady Clark, trading for Carlos Lee and re-upping with Ben Sheets. These moves while seemingly small at season's beginning have resulted in a surprisingly consistent if not overly average team.

Over the first 4 months of the season, the Brewers have posted the following win-loss records:
10-13 April
14-14 May
12-15 June
14-8 July

And take a look at their records against the following:
11-13 N.L. East
22-23 N.L. Central
9-8 N.L. West
8-7 Interleague

And to continue the point:
20-18 Day Games
30-33 Night Games
15-15 1 Run Games

All of this average play as resulted in a 50-51 record and a 13.5 game deficit in the N.L. Central. But, in the N.L. Wild Card race the Brewers are only 5.5 games out and well within striking distance.

Keys to Winning
As you can see from above this is a very balanced team, capable of beating any team on any given day. Carlos Lee leads the way with 24 HR and 84 RBI, but has only a .269 BA. Brady Clark sets the tables and the other hitters; Jenkins, Overbay and the rest provide solid run production. Ricky Weeks is an exciting young player that adds a level of electricity to the club and made Junior Spivey expendable.

The key to this team's success is in the starting pitching. Ben Sheets has become the ace of the staff and owns a 3.45 ERA and 94 Ks in 104 innings, however this has only translated to a 6-7 record. Chris Capuano has been a strong starter with a 3.73 ERA and team leading 11-6 record. Doug Davis has pitched very well at times this year and owns a 4.07 ERA, and a 9-7 record. Victor Santos has posted solid enough numbers to win (4.05 ERA) but owns a lowly 3-10 record. With the addition of Tomo Ohka from the Nationals, the Brewers have rounded out their staff with yet another average pitcher (4.05 ERA and 6-4 record between Washington and Milwaukee). It's enough to remind Phillies fans of the expectations placed on Philadelphia's recent staff's; post average numbers and keep the team in games. Of course that hasn't really work out that way.

The relief staff is also average, but manages to get the job done more often than not. Derrick Turnbow has turned into a nearly automatic closer, saving 21 of 23 chances and allowing a miniscule .183 batting average against. After Turnbow, the rest of the staff does a decent job with the innings they pitch, but no one really stands out as a special reliever, but average is better than most teams can claim in the pen.

One thing that has kept the Brewers around all season is the lack of injuries. All of their top players have been injury-free for the most part, and that sort of health has resulted in consistency.

So what do the Brewers need to make it to the top? This is pretty much a moot point since the ownership isn't likely to become buyers anytime soon (based on their recent track record). And, the team seems like they would be satisfied with an above .500 season.

The Odds
Not very many people talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They seem to play their games in relative obscurity and don't appear on many team's radar. This, of course, could make them dangerous. Bodog Sportsbook gives the Brewers a 250-1 chance of winning the World Series, not much respect for a team only 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, but are you wiling to take that bet?

The Bottom Line
Average is as average does. The Brewers have a good shot at finishing above .500, and for that they really should be congratulated. You might think with as average a team as the Brewers, that they would have a 50-50 chance of making the post-season, however, average teams never make the playoffs, so Midway Phillies rates them as a 10-90 chance against making the post-season. Rest comfortably Phillies fans, the Brewers won't be keeping you up at night.

Handicapping the Arizona Diamondbacks

2005-07-26T00:43:00.000-05:00

We are dissecting the National League pennant race to see who has the best chances of making the playoffs.

Here's the schedule:
Philadelphia Phillies (July 25th, see below - Odds: 30-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost an incredible 111 games in 2004 and looked like a club on the verge of disaster after loosing Richie Sexson to free agency and trading Randy Johnson to the Yankees. But, the team went on a major spending spree and added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Javier Vasquez and Russ Ortiz. The Diamondbacks started out the year with a 14-10 record in April and were 16-12 in May and leading the N.L. West. Since then the team has suffered key injuries to it's pitching staff and has done and about face in June (9-18) and July (9-12). Thanks to their strong start and a badly slumping San Diego Padres team, the Diamondbacks find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.

Keys to Winning
The Diamondbacks have suffered a great number of injuries to their pitching staff, causing them to drop to a .475 winning percentage after their strong start. Both the starting pitching as well as the relief staff are thin. The offense is doing their part; as the team is 9th in the league and 1st in their division at scoring runs. Only 2 teams in the N.L. have given up more runs than the Diamondbacks (530); the Rockies (545) and the Reds (579).

The starting staff is headed by a resurgent Javier Vaszquez. Since leaving the pressure cooker of New York, and a few early season lumps, Javy has re-gained his old form and is beginning to look like a legitimate ace again. You Phillies fans will remember him from his Expo days. Since April 20th, he has won 9 games and posted a 3.61 ERA with 110 Ks in 127 innings pitched. Brandon Webb has also had a nice rebound from his sophomore slump and is posting solid numbers. After those 2, the starting staff is a mess. Russ Ortiz hasn't pitched since June 15th, and wasn't pitching well before his injury. Shawn Estes hit the DL on July 7 with a fractured ankle (and never pitches especially well anyway), leaving Brad Halsey and Claudio Vargas in the middle of the rotation, with Mike Gosling currently holding down the 5th starter's position. No wonder this team has given up so many runs. Clearly the Diamondbacks need their starters healthy to regain momentum, though the team is really in need of an additional arm to round out the staff (when healthy). Vaszquez and Webb can't do it all themselves.

The relief pitching has been a complete mess for most of the year. Greg Aquino began the year as the closer, but promptly hit the DL after his first outing. Jose Valverde was the 2nd choice to close, but he was already on the DL, so the team finally settled on Brandon Lyon, and through the middle of May he lead the league in games saved with 13 before he hit the DL. Now the Diamondbacks are on Plan D (as in DL) and using Brian Bruney to close. Bruney has been relatively successful converting 11 of 14 save chances, but he hasn't been pretty doing it; sporting a 6.14 ERA and .279 Batting Average Against. This might push Arizona to go with Tim Worrell as plan F (or is that Ph?) -- the recent acquisition from the Phillies. Given the teams options, Worrell looks like the best bet for the long term. Regardless of who closes, the Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in the N.L., and if they don't add another arm or two, the 7th and 8th innings will be as questionable as the 9th.

The Odds
The Diamondbacks were pretty much written off until the Padres recent skid of 7 straight losses, which is even making the Giants think they have a chance (and they don't even if Barry comes back in late August). Bodog Sportsbook gives the Diamondbacks 60-1 odds of winning the World Series, which is likely a "suckers bet".

The Bottom Line
Unless the team goes into buying mode, and perhaps they have with the Worrell trade, they will continue to struggle and don't figure to be much of a factor in the Wild Card race. With the weakness of the N.L. West (San Diego sports a .505 winning percentage), Arizona has a much better chance of winning the division. As for Phillies fans, the Diamondbacks are probably not much to worry about in the Wild Card race. Midway Phillies puts the Diamondbacks chances at 20-80 against making the post-season.

Handicapping the Pennant Race

2005-07-25T00:02:00.000-05:00

With 99 games in the books and the Phillies 5 games over .500, and 3 games out in the N.L. East, the team is solidly in the playoff race. With 2 playoff spots available -- the division title and the wildcard -- let's take a look at the competition.

Let's assume that any team within 10 games has a chance to win. We will take one team each day and break down their chances.

The list includes:
Philadelphia Phillies (Today)
Arizona Diamondbacks (Tuesday)
Milwaukee Brewers (Wednesday)
Chicago Cubs (Thursday)
Florida Marlins (Friday)
New York Mets (Monday - August 1)
Washington Nationals (Tuesday - August 2)
Atlanta Braves (Wednesday - August 3)

Philadelphia Phillies Season Summary
The Phillies have had a streaky season so far, starting out the year slowly, then posting an historic winning homestand in May and June, only to fall on hard times in mid June up until the All Star Break. Since the break, the Phillies have gone 7-3 and have regained some momentum in the very competitive N.L. East.

Keys to Winning
The Phillies have struggled with consistency all year, due to a shaky bullpen, average starting pitching, the absence of Jim Thome's bat and the on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.

The bullpen is filled with quality arms and much of the early struggles can be attributed to Tim Worrell's personal issues. Him not throwing right created additional stress on the rest of the pen and led to some early confusion over the roles everyone was playing. The exception was Billy Wagner who has pitched a very solid and consistent season from day one, but his role was always clear. With Tim Worrell gone and Ugueth Urbina taking his place, the bullpen has become much more consistent and should continue to put up quality innings throughout the next 2 months.

Starting pitching has been a strength for the team at times and an area for concern at other times. Brett Myers finally appears to have turned the corner to become the team ace he was always projected to be. Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle are producing as expected, some great performances, some not-so-great, but overall they give the team quality innings and keep them in games more often than not. Vincente Padilla had a horrendous first half, but has put together a nice string of innings recently. Having him healthy and pitching the way he is capable will be a big part of the Phillies post-season chances. The 5th starter is also a big concern for the Phillies the rest of the way. With Randy Wolf going down for the season, the Phillies have filled his spot with Robinson Tejeda, who has done an admirable job. It remains to be seen if Tejeda can be the long-term solution. He's pitching quality innings so far, but can only do it for 5 or 6 innings an outing, placing additional stress on the bullpen. The Phillies may need to make a move for a starter out on the market, or consider bringing up Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels.

Jim Thome's struggles have been well documented this season, and have created a large hole in the Phillies batting order. His health remains an issue, but if he can come back and be the player he has been the past few seasons, the Phillies will be in great shape. However, the recent emergence of Ryan Howard is taking some of the sting out of Thome's time off. While Howard has been ticketed as a trade candidate much of the season, the Phillies might be best served in keeping him around as a power option of the bench and spot starter to spell Thome.

The on-base-percentage of Jimmy Rollins has been the Achilles heal for the Phillies for much of the season. Jimmy's .316 OBP is costing the team several runs. The Phillies either need to teach Rollins some patience at the plate, or start to look at other options for leading off. Kenny Lofton and Chase Utley both have OBP's hovering around the .400 mark, making them very attractive possibilities for leading off. The question is how long Charlie Manuel will stick with Rollins at the lead-off spot.

The Odds
By following the sports news outlets, you would get the idea that the Phillies don't have much of a chance at all to make the post-season. Peter Gammons characterizes the Phillies as pretenders rather than contenders, while everyone else is talking about the Braves, Nationals and Cubs. However, Bodog Sportsbook places the Phillies at 30-1 odds to win the World Series, which seems fair.

The Bottom Line
If the Phillies continue to get quality pitching the rest of the way and find a solution for the 5th starter, they have enough hitting to win a lot of ballgames which gives them as much of a chance as any other team in the N.L. East to make the playoffs. Midway Phillies says their chances of making the playoffs are 50/50.

Worrell Set Free

2005-07-22T17:58:00.000-05:00

Tim Worell was traded to the Diamonbacks today for Matt Kata. This appears to be a matter of setting Worrell free from Philadelphia. According to Ed Wade, "He expressed an interest in pitching closer to home and we tried to see if there was a deal out there that could accommodate both him and the club." Looks like the former was satisfied, though it's not apparent how this accommodates the club. The Phillies are paying the rest of Worrell's salary and receive Matt Kata, an infield spare part that doesn't figure into the plans either this year or in the future, with the Phillies infield and bench pretty much set. Unless Kata is part of a another trade package, this seems to be a case of setting Worrell free.

This is an unfortunate turn of events, as Worrell was pitching fairly well since his return. 5 2/3 innings pitched allowing 2 earned runs, now Worrell has an outside shot at closing for the Diamondbacks. Phillies fans were surely envisioning him returning to form and becoming an important part of the bullpen in a playoff race.

Does this signal the start of selling season for the Phillies? Let's hope not as the team is only 5 games out of the division and the wildcard race. Next up we will preview the wildcard contenders to see how the Phillies stack up.

Streaking Again

2005-07-17T21:49:00.000-05:00

The Phillies have just finished off the Florida Marlins to take 3 out of 4 games from the fish. This marks their second straight series win after taking 2 out of 3 from the Washington Nationals or 5-2 the last 2 series. This after a going 7-15 since June 14.

The Phillies are a streaky team.
For better, or worse, this is how the team is constructed. With the pleathora of home runs that the Bank allows, the Phillies tend to swing for the fences more than most, resulting in a large number of team strike outs. Add to this a starting staff that can be great at times, but mediocre at others...mix in a lack of patience at the plate from Rollins, and you have a formula for a streaky team. Luckily it has been reported that Rollins is becoming more patient on mlb.com. We shall see, as he goes, generally so does the Phillies offensive attack.

Is a prolonged winning streak on the horizon?
Probably, the triple-A Dodgers are coming to town and look like easy pickings. After that it's San Diego at home and Houston on the road. The Phillies have eaten up the NL West (7-2), and the Astros have lost their last 3, so some the Phillies should win their share. After that the Phillies play a 4 game set against the also triple-A Rockies. It would be surprising if the Phillies don't end up at least 7-5 after this stretch, making an overall 17-7 streak possible. Couple this with the 7-15 streak from June 14 - July 7 and the team would be a combined 24-22 and 5 games over .500. Still not a wonderful record overall, but good enough to maintain a solid spot in the wildcard race as well as the division.

Random Thoughts
The Phillies are in second place in the wildcard race, 4 games behind the Braves, quite amazing when you think about how bad they played the month prior to the All-Star break...Are the Braves really going to win the division again? It certainly is set in their favor with Chipper, Hampton and Hudson all back to active duty. Maybe Smoltz and Andrew Jones need to go down for the NL East to hold down the Braves...If the Braves win the division, can the Nationals take the wildcard? Less likely, this team has been way too lucky, see the previous posts, more than likely the Nationals end up in 4th place by the end of the season...Ryan Howard is looking impressive filling in for Thome, hitting 3 homers and knocking in 11 since Jim went down. With the way Tome had been hitting, maybe he should take the time to make sure he is fully healthy before coming back. Howard can hold the fort until then...Speaking of Howard, he is doing a great job of raising his trade value, which could be important for the Phillies landing a top line starter. However, why not keep Howard on the bench, spelling Thome when needed, to provide that all important bench power? That would require a solution for the 5th starter...Rumor has it that Cole Hamels is lighting up the minors and could be on the fast track to the big club, maybe even this year. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to bring him up and see what he can do. And, why not bring up Gavin Floyd again to see if he can get back the magic?...Kudos to Vincente Padilla for answering the call. Apparently he was 1 start away from loosing his spot in the rotation prior to the All-Star Break. Since then, 2-0 with 13 scoreless innings pitched. Hopefully he has figured things out, the club really needs him...Kudos also go to Milt Thompson for teaching Jimmy Rollins the afor mentioned patience at the plate. A .545 on-base percentage and 4 walks this past week is a good start.

The Power of One

2005-07-10T23:47:00.000-05:00

One is a powerful number. Sunday the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals by one in the bottom of the 12th inning to move one game closer to the division lead. Atlanta also lost, moving the Phillies one game closer to the wild card position. This game also marked the 4th game in a row that was decided by one run. The Phillies have won 2 and lost 2 of those contests.

What's more interesting is looking at the Washington National's record in one run contests this season. A league leading 24-9 (.727), an increadible feat to be sure, and the reason Chad Cordero is keeping Bobby Thigpen up at night. Thigpen is the all time saves leader with 57 in a season. This may show that the Nationals are living on borrowed time. Winning by one run every night takes enough luck that a .727 winning percentage is very unlikely to be maintained over the course of a full season. But that's a subject for another time.

The interesting comparison is how the Phillies are doing in one run contests. They are an even 11-11, which is more in line with a winning percentage that should be expected in one run contests. This includes a 2-2 mark against the Nationals. What might the Phillies record be if they had one more quality reliever to hold the opposition down in the late innings (Tim Worrell) and had they enjoyed one of Jime Thome's missing 10 or so home runs in a few of those contests? Perhaps the Phillies would have a .727 winning percentage, or be 16-6. That would have been a 5 game swing and have the Phillies tied with the Braves right now.

While this is certainly all speculation, one has to consider how easily the Phillies could turn it around in the second half if they can just manage one more once in awhile.

Buyers or Sellers

2005-07-05T11:26:00.000-05:00

The Phillies limped past the half-way point of the season with a 41-40 record through 81 games, and the annual ritual in baseball is quickly approaching. That's right, it's now just 26 days until the trade deadline and teams will be deciding if they are buyers or sellers over the next couple of weeks.

So, what are the Phillies -- buyers or sellers?
If a team is a buyer, that means they think they have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, if they are a seller, then they are packing it in this season and planning for the next.

First of all, who would they be selling? Thome, Bell, Lieberthal, Lieber, Wagner and Urbina would be the candidates to ship to another team. But, with the way Thome, Lieber and Liberthal have been playing and considering the size of their contracts next year, they would be tough to move for good value. Wagner and Urbina would be the easiest to move, with the short supply of quality relievers and playoff contending teams that need them, but since the Phillies just acquired Urbina, it doesn't seem likely that he would be traded away so soon.

Secondly, there seems to be an opinion in the Phillies management that the window of opportunity is closing for this team to win, and that they need to stay together and play together to get across that line. While that may be the case with this particular set of players, with the elevated budget that the Phillies now enjoy, this should be a team that is able to contend into the future. And we all know how streaky this team can be.

Finally, the Phillies are currently in 3rd position in the Wildcard race, just 4 games behind the Braves, so they aren't exactly out of the race. Add to that an eventual slide by the Nationals, and there is still room to make the playoffs.

No, the Phillies aren't likely to be sellers this year, unless they drop the next 10 games in a row, then all bets are off. More than likely, they will continue to hover around .500 or a little above, meaning they will go into this year's trading deadline as solid buyers.

What will the Phillies be buying?
Starting pitching. Plain and simple, they need a top of the rotation starter. Recent rumors have Ted Lilly as a trade possibility. With his near 6.00 ERA, it doesn't seem like a quality fit, and he is far from a top of the rotation type of guy.

Barry Zito's name has been out there a few times, and the A's would likely have some interest in Ryan Howard (the Phillies primary trade bait), and he would be the clone of Randy Wolf that the Phillies are sorely missing.

Jason Schmidt is probably on the market, although the Giants aren't making that public, and it might take a little more than just Ryan Howard to get him, but he would be the difference maker the Phillies really need. Adding Schmidt to the team would be akin to seeing Schilling return, a dominant power pitcher that always throws quality innings. If the Phillies are serious about a playoff run, he is definitely the guy to get.

The chances of making the post-season
Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN Fantasy Games had an interesting topic he covered today. "I was curious, how often do .500 (or thereabouts) teams bounce back and reach the postseason? Looking back at the 212 teams that reached the playoffs in the past 50 seasons, only 12 had a losing record after 81 games -- and we can throw out the 1981 Royals (36-45) and 1995 Mariners (40-41), since those were strike-shortened seasons. Only 29 teams with a sub-.520 record (42-39 or worse) reached the postseason. Three World Series champions -- 1964 Cardinals (40-41), 1985 Royals (41-40) and 2003 Marlins (40-41) -- were among the slow starters. What does that tell us? Teams like the Yankees, Athletics (40-41), Cubs (40-41), Diamondbacks (41-43), Mets (41-41) and Phillies (42-41) still have hope, but not much. And those sub-.500 teams -- the Astros (39-42), Dodgers (38-43), Giants (34-47) and Tigers (37-43) -- are probably days from packing it in."

Yes, the Phillies have hope, and amazingly enough they are currently 3rd in the Wildcard race, 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves. If they hadn't blown that 3 run lead the other night, they would be in 2nd position and only 2 games behind Atlanta. It's certainly possibly and very plausible at this point for the Phillies to think they have a legitimate shot at the post-season. After all, it only takes a 2 week hot streak to put them into the Wildcard lead.

Rumblin...Bumblin...Stumblin

2005-06-29T11:02:00.000-05:00

It's been difficult to write about the Phillies over the past week, so why not borrow a phrase from Chris Berman to describe the current state of the Phillies. It seems pretty appropriate.

Seriously though, how does a team come off of a 15-2 record from May 25-June 12, then face back-to-back-to-back last place teams and go 3-6? Of course the A's are not in last place, but they had been playing like it. Then to get swept in ugly fashion at home by the Red Sox, and now sporting a 5 game losing streak thanks to the Mets last night. Ouch.

Tonight the Phillies face the last place Mets again, who have taken 3 out of the last 4 from the Phillies, and if they win tonight it will be the Phillies who are once again in last place and potentially back to 7.5 games out of first place. Incidentally, this is the spot they started in when they ran off the winning streak. The only silver lining in this is the fact that they are still over .500. It's an amazing feat to have all of the teams in the division with winning records this late in the season, but not much of a comfort to Phillies fans.

The Phillies have to enter tonight's game with a certain sense of urgency. They have to win now to stay ahead of the Mets and keep from falling further behind the pace of the division. After this series, the Braves come to town, which could be a pivital series for the Phillies this year. It looks like the Braves are once again in position to win the N.L. East, and no one is giving the Nationals much of a chance to stay in first the rest of the way. With the Phillies trailing the Braves by 4 games, this weekend is an opportunity to climb back in this race, or fall out of it.

What could happen -- the Phillies sweep the Braves putting them 1 game behind

What can't happen -- the Braves sweep the Phillies and bury us in a pretty deep hole

What's likely to happen -- a series split that doesn't move the standing much either way...but isn't the drama of a sweep much more interesting?

Hold tight Philly faithful. Enjoy the 4th of July. Eat some hot dogs. Then check back in with the standings next week. That's when we might have a better idea of where the Phillies are headed this year.

Where's the All Star Support?

2005-06-21T17:09:00.000-05:00

Bobby Abreu is solidly in 3rd place on the All-Star ballot among National League outfielders, and Pat Burrell is 8th, but beyond those 2, not another Phillies player is even in the top 5 at their position. C'mon Citizen's Banker's, start stuffing those ballot boxes, in-stadium voting ends this Friday. Abreu as the 3rd outfielder? He definitely should be first. We all know how he has carried the team, especially in early May when the Phillies desperately needed a hot bat, and just look at the statistical comparison of the top 3, along with Burrell.

Beltran .268 / 8HR / 33BI / 28R / 1SB
Edmonds .285 / 11HR / 39BI / 35R / 1SB
Abreu .324 / 16HR / 48BI / 50R / 17SB
Burrell .305 / 14HR / 55BI / 28R / 0SB

It's not that Abreu is just leading in every offensive category, he is blowing Beltran and Edmonds away, even Burrell is beating them out in every category, except for that 1 stolen base. With the playoff exposure Beltran got last year and landing in New York, no wonder he is leading the voting, but his numbers this year are paltry, Chase Utley is hitting better -- make that way better.

Speaking of Utley, where's the brotherly love for voting him in at Second. Yeah, Jeff Kent is having a monster year, and has all of those L.A. fans to vote him in, but after that it's Grudzielanek, Biggio, T. Walker, and M. Giles. All of these guys have underwhelming stats. Let's take a look at the Utley - Kent comparison, a popular topic throughout the year.

Kent .291 / 14HR / 53BI / 46R / 4SB
Utley .307 / 10HR / 33BI / 31R / 5SB

Kent has the advantage for sure, but keep in mind that Utley has 62 fewer at bats. Give Chase another 62 at bats and those stat lines will be nearly identical. Utley should at least be second in the balloting here. Maybe Torre will see the talent and select Utley anyway, that's if he doesn't put his own player (Grudzielanek) on the team first.

Then there is the matter of Jimmy Rollins. Yes, he had a slow start to the season, but there just aren't that many good hitting shortstops these days, and the top 5 is a joke. Barmes and Garciaparra are injured for an extensive period of time. Furcal is barely hitting over the Mendoza Line (.221 to be exact). Eckstein at least scores some runs. Izturis at least has the gold glove to support him at the number 1 position. Can't we get Jimmy into the top 3 at least?

All right Phanatics, get out to the ballot box and vote. It hasn't happened early, but can still happen often. Exercise your right to choose.

Hey Hey Tejeda

2005-06-19T23:15:00.000-05:00

Robinson Tejeda is making a case for himself as the guy to replace Wolf's spot in the lineup. He blanked the A's for 5 2/3 innings on Friday, earning his first win and extending his scoreless innings streak to 10 2/3 as a starter. Not bad for an emergency fill in.

So, how did Tejeda look? His pitches do have a lot of movement on them and batters seem to have a hard time picking up the location, esentially some nasty stuff. Todd Pratt had this to say about Tejeda "We wanted to hide his power until we needed it in the middle innings...He's got a lively fastball with some movement, and a good changeup, really two changeups, one's more like a split." A good review to be sure. In his 10 2/3 innings Tejeda has only given up 6 hits and has struck out 5, both very good totals.

On the downside, Tejeda is giving up a fair share of free passes. While he only walked one batter on Friday, he did walked 4 in his previous start covering 5 innings, and has 17 total walks in just 20 innings of work this year. It is also important to note that the A's offense is one of the worst in the majors. Not that to diminsh his outing, it was superb, but it is still worth noting. It is rare when a pitcher comes from obscurity to have great success in the majors, but certainly not unheard of. Tejeda could be the starters version of Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez.

What to look for...for Tejeda to keep his spot in the rotation, he will need to cut down on his walk rate and show that he can work deeper into games. At this point he is a 5 inning pitcher, but over the next few starts he is likely to be stretched out to 6, 7 or even 8 innings. This will be a true test of how he can fare at the major league level. Tejeda should be given at least a couple more starts to see if he can keep up the success. If he falters however, the Phillies could turn to Gavin Floyd (yes, he has been struggling in the minors, but likely just needs some confidence), or they will need to make a move for a pitcher out on the market.

Figuring out who will fill Wolf's spot in the rotation the rest of the year is key to continuing the Phillies success, and will continue to be the most important issue to follow over the next few weeks.

Wolf is Toast

2005-06-15T18:17:00.000-05:00

The news isn't good for Randy Wolf with the injury to his ulnar collateral ligament (that's his elbow), and it looks like he is going to be headed for the dreaded Tommy John surgery. While this sort of surgery has been quite successful over the past several years (just ask Jon Lieber), it still means Wolf would definitely be out for the rest of this year, and likely much, if not all of 2006. Wolf hasn't decided on surgery yet, since he could opt to rest and rehab the elbow. However, this seems unlikely since this has been a recurring problem since last year and is likely to continue in the future. While not for certain, it seems he is headed for the surgery and we all wish him well as he will be sorely missed in the Phillies rotation.

With the expected loss of Wolf for the year, what are the Phillies options for filling his spot in the rotation? Had this question been asked at the beginning of the year, the answer would have been obvious...Gavin Floyd would have finally taken his much anticipated spot in the rotation. However, Floyd has been struggling at AAA since his stint as a reliever and subsequent demotion. One can't help but wonder if this kid's confidence has been shaken so badly from his outings as a reliever that it has translated to his starting. Perhaps bringing him back to the majors would restore the confidence, but that may not be a chance the Phillies want to take.

For now, it looks like Rob Tejeda will get the first crack at the open spot in the rotation. He did have a great outing last week against the Rangers tossing 5 shutout innings, but he has come from relative obscurity in the minors to do so. With only 15 major league innings under his belt, it may be a lot to ask.

If Tejeda doesn't work out and Floyd can't find his groove, then Ed Wade will have to step in and start the dealing. With Ryan Howard as the most likely bargaining chip, let's look at 6 starting pitching options likely to be on the market.

First the A List, meaning it may take Howard plus something to get these guys.

Roger Clemens - Astros
One of the aces of the Astros staff, Clemens sports a gaudy 1.64 ERA. With the Astros going nowhere this season, and Bagwell's career seemingly over, this looks like a good fit. However, The Rocket has a no-trade clause in his contract, and had retired before last year, only to come back because of the chance to play for his home town team. So, unless his competitive juices are flowing strong enough, this would be a tough deal to close.

Barry Zito - A's
Zito's name always seems to come up as a trade possibility for the Phillies. It seemed like Polanco was going to be traded for Zito last year, but that never materialized. The A's could definitely use a power hitting first baseman since Durazo doesn't seem to be turning into the hitter he was expected to be. Zito is a solid lefty, and is due a substantial raise in the near future (always a good reason for the A's to trade a player). This would seem to be a good fit for both teams, though Zito, an ex-Cy Young winner has struggled through the last 2 years at times, giving up a few too many home runs. Even so, he would provide a solid replacement for Wolf.

Jason Schmidt - SF Giants
The Giants are stuggling mightily without Barry Bonds in the lineup, and they might just start cleaning house to rebuild if it looks like Bonds won't return. JT Snow can't last much longer at first base, so they might have some interest in Howard. It may take awhile for them to decide to throw in the towel on this season, but if they do, Schmidt could be on the list of players to shop. Schmidt has been a perennial Cy Young candidate the last several seasons, though he has a 6.12 ERA this year. With his track record, he would be a welcome addition to the Phillies staff.

Now for the B list.

Mark Redman - Pirates
The Pirates are surging, but are unlikely to challenge the Cardinals this year. Once they feel they are out of the race, their annual trading spree could begin. Redman who is putting together a nice year (2.80 ERA) could be used as their bargaining chip. As you may recall, Redman was a solid piece of the Marlins rotation the year they won it all, so he has the playoff experience. He also has a 4.17 ERA and 33-36 record over the past 3 years. Solid numbers for a back of the rotation starter.

Jamie Moyer - Mariners
Seattle is having a tough year this year, and Moyer is about at the end of his career, so he doesn't seem to figure into their long-range plans. And, Moyer is a name Phillies fans may remember as a guy they were trying to sign in 2003. Moyer is a crafty veteran, but may not have much left in the tank. The Mariners are also set at first with Richie Sexson, but in the AL they do have that DH spot to fill.

Kevin Millwood - Indians
Would the Phillies brass dare bring back Millwood? Not likely, and the Indians are still in the race in the AL Central, and set at first base with Travis Hafner. But, who knows, stranger things have happened, and if Millwood isn't looked to as the "ace" of the staff, he could be a serviceable middle of the rotation guy. Just don't boo him too loudly.

Wild Card Team

2005-06-11T18:00:00.000-05:00

Entering play today, June 11, the Philadelphia Phillies hold the National League Wild Card spot. Yes, it is rediculous to be thinking about the Wild Card, especially a month before the All-Star game, but just think about that for a second. This team has played so well since having it handed to them in Florida a couple of weeks ago that if the season ended today, they would be the Wild Card team. How many of the Philly Phaithful had given up on this team after that game (if not sooner)?

Of course, the season doesn't end today, and the Phillies have another 100 games to play, starting tonight against the Brew Crew. And, who wants to take the Wild Card when the National League East division title is up for grabs. Does anyone believe the Nationals are a strong enough team to hold the lead? Probably not many takers outside the beltway. Most would probably be picking the Marlins at this point, and the Phillies hold a 2 game lead over them. That's a 9.5 game swing over 2 weeks of play. Simply amazing.

Recent Observations
This streak the Phillies are on is the streak that so many in the media kept predicting last year, which never came. The whole time the Phillies were 5-7 games out, everyone was expecting them to string together 8-10 wins and get back in the race. This year, it was the same situation, albeit much earlier in the season and without the media prognosticators. So finally the winning streak is here, hopefully we get a second one since we were denied last year.

Jim Thome is showing signs of coming out of his funk. He's hit 2 home runs the last 2 days and 4 since May 27th. As described in a previous post, June is Thome's month to shine. Look for another 6 or 7 from Thome this month, and for him to carry the team at times.

Oogey, Oogey, Oogey. There's a new set-up man in town. Ugueth Urbina is now a Philly and comes in at a crucial time to save the tired bullpen arms. Urbina is a rock solid relief pitcher (despite his first outing), and should make closing the door on teams a much easier task. His signing really saves the arms up-and-down the staff. Wagner can get the occasional day off, and Madson and Cormier don't have to shoulder as much of a load in the late innings. This also allows the starters to come out a bit earlier if needed.

Worrell is back! Almost that is. Tim Worrell, as reported on MLB.com, is back with the team. He claims his personal issues are behind him and he is looking forward to pitching again. The goal is to have him get in condition, think a short spring training, and start a rehab assignment by June 20th. That could put Worell back in the Phillies bullpen just before July. This would be perfect timing, as the bullpen may need a boost by that time. This could set up a great situation for the stretch run, as a healthy (mentally or otherwise) Worrell makes this a scary relief staff.

Phils Finally get Urbina

2005-06-08T16:16:00.000-05:00

Congrats to Ed Wade for pulling off a deal to get Ugueth Urbina, maybe a couple of years late, but finally. You see, back in 2003, when the Phillies were hitting the home stretch and leading the division, Jose Mesa had a historic meltdown. At that time, the Phillies badly needed another arm to close in the bullpen and Texas was looking to trade Urbina. However, the Phillies failed to get him (not sure if they even tried) and instead made a terrible move in getting Mike Williams from the Pirates. On another subject, the Pirates ended up trading Lofton and Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs that year for a bag of peanuts. The Phillies desperately needed a centerfielder and 3rd baseman by the end of 2003...but as we said that is another topic.

Back to Urbina, instead of the Phillies nabbing him, the Marlins ended up grabbing him and rode his arm to the National League Wild Card and eventually the World Series. And I'm sure all the Phillies fans remember watching that World Series and thinking, "why the heck aren't we playing the Yankees right now". Maybe it's unfair to blame Mesa for the entire season, after all Millwood had his meltdown too, but the Phillies barely missed the Wild Card, and for the Marlins, Urbina definitely was a difference maker for them that year, just take a look at the closer stats after that trade.

Urbina 3-0 / 6 SV / 1.41 ERA
Mesa 1-2 / 6 SV / 10.50 ERA

It's amazing that Mesa even saved 6 games while allowing a full 9 runs more per 9 innings than Urbina. Mesa broke down so badly that he was barely used by the end of the year, and while Mike Williams was inserted as the closer for a time, he was no better. We would look up Williams' stats, but he is no longer an active player, so you know how bad he was.

But, that was the past, and the Phillies are in contention again this year. Urbina is just the type of quality arm that the bullpen is in need of, especially with the apparent loss of Tim Worrell. He fits in well as the set-up man and backup for Wagner. It is odd that Urbina hasn't been more highly regarded, especially when you look at his stats over the past 3 years.

3.35 ERA
.201 Opponents Batting Average
93 Saves
86% Save Conversion
205 Strike Outs (in 191 innings)

Compare these to Tim Worrell's stats, the role Urbina is filling:

2.95 ERA
.239 Opponents Batting Average
57 Saves
78% Save Conversion
184 Strike Outs (in 228.2 innings)

Ed Wade has certainly done a good job of replacing Tim Worrell, now if we can only get Worrell back and into his old form, this would be one of the strongest pens in the majors.

As for losing Polanco, it is a shame to see him go, but he has been on the bubble for awhile now. Last year at the trading deadline he was almost on the A's, then this off-season he looked destined to return to the Cardinals. Only a down market for his skills and a shocking acceptance of arbitration kept him on the team. While he has been a valuable asset, this paves the way for Chase Utley to play every day, which isn't a bad thing at all.

As for Ramon Martinez the other player the Phillies get in this deal, he is really a Polanco-lite. Guess that would make him more like a Thomas Perez, and that means he can be valuable to the team.

You can look forward to the Phillies closing the door in more convincing fashion the rest of the year with Urbina working the 8th. His presence will save the bullpen, with Madson and Cormier back to 7th inning duties and Wagner exclusively working the 9th (he has been coming into games in the 8th lately). Now all the starters need to do is get the game through 6 innings, a much easier task than 7. So let's give a round of applause to Wade on this one and look forward to an exciting pennant race.

No Mediocre Week

2005-06-04T12:21:00.000-05:00

What a difference a week makes. On May 24th, the Phillies had just lost a stunner to the Marlins and were sitting in the basement of the National League East at 7.5 games out and 5 games under .500. Now, on June 4th, they are 2 games over .500 and are only 1.5 games out of first. Amazingly, the Phillies are still in last, and technically it was a week and a half, but still, the outlook for the division has completely changed.

Being a .518 team and only 1.5 games out of first place, while still being in last brings up an interesting question...Has there ever been a division in baseball where every team was over .500 this late into the season? No, we don't know the answer here at Midway Phillies, somebody please chime in if they do. This is an anomoly for sure, and very hard to accomplish with the number of inter-division games that have been played.

It seems that the baseball world is unsure what to make of this situation in the N.L. East. Phil Sheridan at Philly.com characterizes the National League East as a "down division" stating that "we can safely say this is not a banner year for the NL East". Talking baseball with Cub fan friends in Chicago, one of them remarked that the N.L. East is a mediocre division.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers to see how "mediocre" this division really is. To begin with, the teams in the N.L. East have played 55% of their games against each other, posting a combined 75-75 record. Certainly a well-balanced division, but are these teams having a down year?

It seems that the argument being made is that the stronger teams are those playing over .600; the Cardinals, Padres, Orioles and White Sox. However, each of these teams has played a large portion of their games against division rivals, and each has teams in their division playing with winning percentages under .400. Meaning, the Padres get to beat up on the Rockies, the White Sox get to beat up on the Royals, etc. Here are the intra-division records of the teams playing over .600.

21-4 Cardinals
20-4 White Sox
18-8 Orioles
15-12 Padres

At best this shows a disparity between the best and worst teams within a division. To determine the strength of a division, we must look at the inter-division records, as these are the common teams that each team within a division is facing (interleague games aren't included since there aren't as many common matchups). Here's how the divisions stack up:

67-63 (.515) A.L. East
65-64 (.504) A.L. Central
67-73 (.479) A.L. West
63-47 (.573) N.L. East
67-75 (.472) N.L. Central
54-62 (.466) N.L. West

The N.L. East has the best winning percentage in inter-league games, showing they clearly have the strongest set of teams thus far into the season. This can hardly be considered a "mediocre" or "down division", in fact these numbers suggest that this is the most competitive division in the majors.

A New Hope?

2005-05-30T23:55:00.000-05:00

Two weeks ago the Phillies struggled to split 4 games with the Reds at home and were embarking on 12 game road trip against all first place teams. While the season had been a struggle to that point, it seemed very likely that this road trip could be the death blow to the teams playoff chances. However, the Fightin's were able to take 2 of 3 from the Cardinals at home, 2 of 3 from the Orioles in Baltimore and the rebellion had begun as they headed out to face their own "Evil Empire", the Marlins. The first 2 games with the Fish didn't go well at all, and after a disastrous finish to the second game, the team was sitting at 7 games out and staring that death blow right in the face like Darth Vader saying to Luke, "who's your daddy!" But, the Phillies used the force (of their bats) and won the next 3 in a row, taking 2 of 3 from the Braves in the process. As luck would have it, the Braves and Marlins have also been struggling on their own and the Phillies head home only 4.5 games out of first in the National League East.

So as the next chapter to the season begins...Will the fans at Citizens Bank Park be warm in welcoming the Phillies home? Maybe. Will Rollins continue his hot hitting at lead-off? Hopefully. (He's on nearly the same track as last year). Will Thome come up with a monster June and carry the team for awhile? Quite likely. (Last year Thome hit 15 homers in the month of June, in 2003 he hit 9, in 2002 he hit 10. June is by far his best power month over the past 3 years, so look for good things coming soon). Will Worrell be released from his imprisonment by Jaba the Hut? No one knows.

While the past 2 weeks was a critical stretch for this team, the next 4 weeks are crucial to deciding the Phillies ultimate fate this year. In this time span, the Phillies play 18 of their 24 games at home, starting with the very beatable Giants, a strong Diamondbacks team, average Texas and Milwaukee teams, then ending up with the Mets and Red Sox (who seem more beatable lately without Schilling). Of the 6 games they play on the road, they get to face a weak Mariners team and a very weak A's team who can't seem to buy a run these days.

Have the Phillies averted a trip to the dark side? Not completely. Is there cause for hope? This is so, it would seem.

A Very Tough Loss

2005-05-24T21:43:00.000-05:00

It seems appropriate to start this entry with a quote from Tuesday's loss to the Marlins; "This was our game, and we messed it up," added manager Charlie Manuel, who looked especially frustrated after the loss. "When [Brett] Myers pitches that good, it's tough for us to lose the game. This is very tough."

Yes, that was a tough loss, one that possibly puts the Phillies out of the race, now 7.5 games out of first and facing the first place Marlins again tonight, a desperation must win game. Had they won the game, it would be 5.5 games out and looking at the possiblity of pulling within 4.5 tonight.

So let's examine the situation a little closer. First, the Phils have been on a pretty impressive streak winning 2 of 3 from the Cardinals at home and going on the road to win 2 of 3 from the first place Orioles. Fans may have been starting to believe again and looking forward to this series against the Marlins as a chance for the team to prove themselves and start climbing back in this race. The last thing that could happen at this point is to be swept by the first place Marlins. Anything that happens for a month after that really doesn't matter if you fall to 8.5 games out before Memorial Day.

There are a couple of observations to make. First, the relief staff is horrible, and that's not an opinion, the Phillies now have a 6.35 ERA out of the pen, a major league worst. And that's with Wagner's strong stats (regardless of the home run last night). Imagine if Mesa was still the closer. Ouch.

Second, given this fact, why would Manuel pull Myers after the 7th inning. MLB.com reports that Myers was "gassed" after the 7th, not having watched the game, but looking into the boxscore, how can this be the case. Yes, he had thrown 104 pitches, but after 7 shutout innings only giving up 2 hits, was he really that "gassed." Really, it seems like a pattern that's starting to emerge where Manuel feels like he needs another run or so in the late innings, and to do so he brings in a pinch hitter for the starting pitcher. More than once, this has lead to a bullpen meltdown. It seems elementary that a guy tossing a 2 hit shutout with a 3-0 lead has earned the right to come out in the 8th. Not to advocate having pitchers injur themselves due to high pitch counts (see the Chicago Cubs), but at least let Myers start the inning and see how he does. Who knows, it could have been a 5 pitch 1-2-3 innning.

The core of the issue here however is what Ed Wade is going to do to address the bullpen issues. Adams has thankfully been released or reassigned and Telemaco always seems to provide quality innings over the course of the season, but he is more of a long relief or mop up guy. We probably would have seen an 11th inning if Telemaco had stayed in to face Delgado instead of switching to Fultz. But, what is the deal with Tim Worrell? He takes a leave of absence, and doesn't communicate with anyone, leaving the team in a very tough place. If the fans were the issue, then why not come back for this road trip to straighten things out. If Worrell doesn't intend on coming back, shouldn't he let management know so a trade can be worked out.

Speaking of trades, the Phillies definitely have the bargaining chips to reshape the bullpen (once again). Here are some ideas, in no particular order.

Trade Worrell back to the Giants for Matt Herges or another quality middle inning guy (they need a closer with experience).
Trade Polanco to the A's for Octavio Dotel (one of the best setup men ever and a reunion with Wagner)
Trade Howard to the Orioles for Jorge Julio (an average closer, and great setup man - Palmeiro can't play 1st forever)
Trade Bell to the Dodgers for Yency Brazoban (quality closer while Gagne was out - they are desperate for a 3B)

Whatever happens, it needs to happen soon. Having an effective Worrell back would be a good first step, otherwise it comes down to a trade. Before that, leave the starters in for an extra inning or 2 since they give the team the best chance to win.

The 40 Game Mark

2005-05-21T12:05:00.000-05:00

Before the season began, Charlie Manuel asked everyone to be patient and give the Phillies 40 games to figure out what he had. Since we haven't seen an official 40 game report card from Manuel, let's break down the team through the first quarter of the season.

Hitting - C
This team has really underachieved their expectations at the plate. Last year's torrid offense has turned into a middle of the pack offense this year. Just like last year, their situational hitting has been very poor, especially with runners in scoring position. Thome has really struggled early with a .203 batting average and 1 home run, finishing off the first quarter of the season on the disabled list. The dreaded "decline" is being bandied about to explain Thome, it will take another month or so to know if that is the case, or if this was just a horrendous cold streak. Rollins is struggling to find first base with a .293 OBP, he struggled to start off last year, so hopefully it's a cold weather thing. Abreu has been on fire to end off the first quarter and Burrell was on fire to start the year, both have strong stats to date, which is good news indeed. Bell has not been playing well at all, with a .237 BA to go along with 8 errors. Utley has been hitting very well in his half of the platoon with a .287 BA / 7 HR. Polanco has been sub-par, but has been scoring runs, which is the most important stat for him. Lieberthal has been struggling at the plate, especially with runners in scoring position, making last year's cold start look like an annual occurance. Center field has been average with Michaels/Lofton/Byrd/Chavez combining for respectable numbers.

The Phillies certainly have room for improvement at the plate, especially with runners on base and certainly when they are in scoring position. They have enough bright spots to give them a grade of C, but improvement is required for this team to excel the rest of the year.

Defense - B+
This team was cruisin' along with one of the best defenses in the league until Monday night's disaster in the field. If it weren't for Bells 3 errors and Rollins 2 errors that night, the Phillies would have an A for the quarter. Luckily, those errors were overcome by a strong outing from Lidle and the Phillies still managed to beat the Cardinals. Quickly around the horn, Bell is struggling in the field at 3rd, Rollins looks as solid as ever (1 of those error on Monday was due to a spectacular diving play to get to the ball, then throwing a one-hopper to Howard who couldn't make the scoop). Utley looks like a much stronger defender than advertised and plays hard every day. Thome still has the soft hands. Lieberthal is having trouble throwing runners out, nabbing only 3 of 16 base stealers. Abreu and Burrell continue to be strong defenders and the center field platoon is managing fine.

Keep doing what they are doing, and by the end of the year, the Phillies should once again be one of the best teams in the league defensively.

Off the Bench - C+
The Phillies bench, considered to be a strength at the start of the season, has been more adequate than anything. The platoon situations have been relatively effective, though Polanco should probably be seeing more starts at 3rd base. Thomas Perez has been his usual solid self. Todd Pratt won a game last week all by himself, just missing the cycle by a triple. For the record, he has 3 triples in his career, the last one in 2003. Offerman has been fairly ineffective at pinch hitting with a .182 BA, though he did take a ball off his helmet to help the Phillies win a game at Wrigley Field and hit his first pinch hit home run on Thursday to add an insurance run in the victory against the Cardinals. That home run is actually the last at bat he had for the Phillies as he was cut on Friday to make room for the return of Kenny Lofton. Ryan Howard has been dissappointing in his call up to replace Thome, what did we expect, another Jim Thome straight out of the minors? Actually, yes, but we are a demanding bunch of fans.

Overall the Phillies bench has been slightly below expectations, but continues to be one of the deepest in the majors. With the unique ability to switch players around at several positions, they can navigate there way through injuries very effectively. Chavez adds some nice speed off the bench and Howard adds the power (if he stays up). By the end of the year, the bench will play many more important roles in winning games for the Phillies, and should end up an overall strength.

Starting Pitching - A-
The starting pitching has been a definite bright spot for the Phillies, placing them in the top 4 or 5 teams in the NL. Coming into the season, we weren't quite sure how the staff would fare, with Wolf and Padilla coming back from injuries, Lieber one year removed from Tommy John surgury, and Myers dissappointing 2004. This year it seems to have all come together for the Phillies starters. Lieber has been the same consistent starter that won him 20 games with the Cubs in 2001. As a ground ball pitcher who doesn't walk many batters, he seems to be a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park. Myers is the story of the year so far, with the 3rd best ERA in the National League, just behind Clemens and Dontrelle Willis. He is a changed pitcher from last year, not letting the occasional home run ruin an entire outing, and avoiding the mental mistakes that plagued his 2004. It certainly looks like his potential has finally arrived, and with a little better run support, he could be a 20 win candidate. Lidle has been the model of consistency and has performed very well out of the back of the rotation. His 200 quality innings will be one of the biggest keys to success for the Phillies in 2005, his stats may end up average, but the consistency helps the rest of the staff immensly, especially the relief. Wolf had a very rough start to the season, but has come back to pitch 4 quality start in a row. Padilla hit the DL out of Spring Training and has struggled to regain his form, though his last outing looked his best.

The poor starts of Wolf and Padilla are all that keeps the starters from receiving an A+. As long as everyong can stay healthy, they should keep the Phillies in most games, with the potential to be a special staff.

Relief Pitching - D-
So far this season, the relief pitching has been the Achilles heal of this squad. On paper, these guys looked like one of the best staffs in the majors. Wagner has certainly delivered, but getting to Wagner has been an adventure so far. Madson has been the most consistent (with the exception of 1 or 2 games), and Cormier still seems to be getting left-handers out. After that, the relief staff is worse than failing. Worrell has had a mental blow out to go along with his pitching blow outs. For a guy that has been as consistent over the years as he has been, this is certainly cause for concern. His quality innings were written in ink to start the year, and missing those innings has hand-cuffed the team so far. Terry Adams has also been a disaster, he's only had 2 solid appearances this year, and has to be considered for a demotion at this point.

The Phillies relief staff is more talented than this. If Worrell can return, and the rest of the staff can start to put it together, they can still be one of the better staffs in the game.

Coaching Staff - Incomplete
Manuel has made some interesting decisions during the season so far, and most have not worked out. The biggest issue is with the early exit of starters, which has over-extended the relief staff a bit. His determination to bench Utley against all lefties has also been an area of concern, as well as his loyalty to a struggling Bell at third. But, on the positive side, the team seems to be much more comfortable with Charlie at the helm, and in the long-run that could be just what the doctor ordered. So, at this point he gets a pass and we will give him until the All Star Break to give him a grade.

Dubee looks like the star of the staff so far, with how the starters have performed. Dumping Kerrigan looks like a master stroke so far. Dubee does need to get the middle relief shaped up, or we are in for a long and dissappointing season.

Milt Thompson has been a positive force in the clubhouse, but needs to get the team out of their funk when it comes to situational hitting. The Phillies simply have too much talent up-and-down the order to not score a ton of runs.

Overall - D+
The first 40 games have not been kind to the Phillies. They have an NL worst record at 18-22 and have greatly under-performed with the exception of some individual efforts. The team really hasn't gelled, with key players struggling, and overall inconsistent play from day in to day out. The starting staff is a bright spot, along with Wagner, Abreu and Burrell. The good news is that they are within that magic 5-or-so-games-out-of-first-place position that means anything is still possible. The bad news is they have 4 other teams to leap-frog if they are to win the division. While the first 40 games have been tough, the team is still in a position to turn it all around, but it has to start now.

Byrd is Free to Soar

2005-05-17T12:35:00.000-05:00

After having a couple of days to contemplate the Byrd for Chavez trade that the "crafty" Ed Wade pulled off, here are some thoughts.

As many others have stated, what was the purpose of trading a spare centerfielder for another spare centerfielder? The Phillies already have a capable platoon in center, though at some point it would be nice to see Michaels play every day. Why can't he put up 20HR / 80BI / .280 numbers? Lofton is a nice OBP guy with speed, so it's not bad seeing him out there either.

During the off-season when the original F-Rod was traded for Lofton, it didn't make much sense. Byrd had the upside, Michaels was progressing nicely, and the Phillies could really have used another arm. Adams essentially replaced Rodriquez's lineup spot and has been a disaster. F-Rod hasn't been much better, but the point is, why not get an arm to help out in the struggling bullpen. Couldn't we have gotten Luis Ayala or something? A quality arm that can eat up innings without blowing games. For once, Wade should have made a trade for a relief pitcher during the season. Wade seems to make pretty decent moves in the off-season, but has yet to show the ability to help the team during the year. At this point, the Phillies struggles are hardly Wade's fault, but if he was trying to help, another arm is what they need now.

What of this Endy Chavez? He's been kicking around the majors since 2001, and his career stats over a 162 game period work out to 5HR / 45BI / 25SB / .263, so he's approximately a Doug Glanville. Nothing too special, but he has some speed. With a career OBP of .304, he really isn't suited to bat lead-off. JRoll is a career .322 OBP (.348 last year), so he stays at the lead-off spot for now. Chavez is basically a spare part that will be a pinch hitter/runner/defensive replacement.

The bottom-line, the Phillies pass on the upside of Byrd for Chavez who fills the same role.

No Relief Part 2

2005-05-14T20:09:00.000-05:00

Watching the game tonight on FSN and the Phillies were cruising through 6 innings with Wolf holding the Reds offense to 2 runs and the Phillies holding a 4-2 lead. Since Wolf reached the 100 pitch mark in the 6th inning, Manuel took him out of the game and put in Ryan Madson (more on this in a bit). Ryan gets Harang (the pitcher) out, then a hit-by-pitch, an infield single, then a solid single to plate 1 run, and 2 left-handers coming up in Griffey and Dunn. At this point, most baseball people would look at the book and go to a leftie specialist to face the Reds big left handed bats. That pitcher's name is Rheal Cormier and his job description is clear -- he's the one who is paid to get tough left handers out. But, Charlie Manuel apparently has not read that book and leaves Madson in the game. To Ryan's credit, the first 2 batters had a lot of luck getting on base, and he has been the most dependable arm out of the pen. But outs are at a premium for the Phillies in the middle innings, so why not switch to Cormier. Of course, Griffey hits a 3 run shot on a hanging breaking ball from Madson. Now the Phillies are down 6-4 with Dunn up to bat, surely Madson's night is done. Nope, he stays in and gives up a moon shot to Adam Dunn. Now Madson's night really has to be "Dunn" for sure, right...nope, like watching a boxing match that has gotten out of hand, Manuel leaves him in to face Austin Kearns who promtly laces a double down the line. Mercifully, Manuel trots out to a chorus of well deserved boos to replace Madson. What gives here? Did Charlie give up on the game once Griffey hit the home run? Can't we try and stop the bleading and get a couple of tough outs, then give the hitters a chance to get back into this game. It was inexplicable why Manuel left Madson in, and really inexcusable. The game ends in a 12-4 pounding.

Back to Wolf. His curve wasn't working, but he was mixing his pitches enough and getting key outs. So he hits the 100 pitch mark, and it is understandable they want to treat him carefully, after the injuries last year, but why not let him start the 7th and see if he can get through it with a low number of pitches. It's not like Randy has pitched many innings this year with the way he was throwing early on. Getting the starter through the 7th inning is really the way a baseball game is supposed to work, if the starter has a good night, he should go at least 7 innings. With the 9th belonging to Wagner, that means the Phillies relief staff only has to get through 3 outs. Let's see, 5 pitchers for 3 outs, that should be do-able. Playing matchups and the hot hand should get you through most of those innings really. There just is no reason to bring Wolf out of the game at this point. Ryan Howard pinch hit for him with 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th, but no one was on base. If the Phillies were in a scoring situation, then by all means pinch hit, but with no one on and 2 outs, what the heck? In contrast, the Reds let Aaron Harang lead off the 7th, recognizing that he was pitching fairly well and not wanting to dip into their bullpen too early. He ended up making the final out of the inning too, as the Reds batted around.

This strategy of pulling starters early is eerily similar to the Bowa led Phillies of the last couple of years. With the Phillies loaded with good relief arms, Bowa leaned heavily on the bullpen only to have them break down late in the year. This year, the relief is looking broken down in the early part of the year, so what chance do they have later if they are overworked now. The Phillies have to get 200 plus innings out of their startes to preserve the back-end of the staff. If you don't do that, you can't win late in the year (without a few trades that is).

Midway Phillies is trying to remain positive until the 40 game mark, but at this point, things look really really bad, and much of it has to fall on Manuel's shoulders at this point. The chants to replace Manuel are a little early to start, but this team has to come together quick, if it isn't already too late. But again, there are enough positive signs and talent with this team to believe they can pull off a miracle come-back to the season, so for now we maintain the glass is half-full optimism. It's the weekend again, so let's all tip back a few of those glasses and hope it can somehow turn around.

R-O-L-A-I-D-S

2005-05-12T16:37:00.000-05:00

The Phillies are in desperate need of some relief. What happened to the team's relief pitching this year? Coming into spring training, the Phillies looked like they had one of the deepest bullpens in the game with Wagner, Worrell, Madson, Cormier and Adams. If the Phillies had a lead in the 7th inning, they weren't supposed to loose a game. So what's up with these guys, is it just a run of bad luck, or are we in for a painful season of 6-7-8 innings.

Let's break them down:

Billy Wagner
So far, he's been great. With the injuries seemingly behind him, the 9th inning has become the Sandman's time to shine. With the exception of an 8th inning home run to Derrick Lee at Wrigley, Wagner has been perfect. He hasn't allowed a run in the 9th inning this year, so if we can get a lead going into the 9th, things are safe.

Tim Worrell
In the second game of the season, Worrell gave up 4 runs to the Nationals, since then, the crowds at Citizens Bank Ballpark have been relentless resulting in him giving up runs in 7 of his 14 appearances. A heafty 9.82 ERA. This has caused Worrell to ask for "time off" and he is blaming the crowd for the added stress. Philly is a tough place for any player to work through a slump, but he seems to have taken it especially hard. This is a guy who hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 this millenium, so it's tough to see him struggling. It's rumored that he is a possible trade candidate (possibly back to the Giants). This would be a shame, as Worrell has been one of the more dependable relievers in the game the past 4 years. It's tough to place the blame of a season on one person's shoulders, but if the Phils had the reliable Worrell setting things up, they would probably be above .500 right now.

Ryan Madson
He started out shaky at the beginning of the season bringing up fears of the dreaded sophomore slump (see Marlon Byrd). But since then, he's been the Phillies most dependable arm out of the pen (after Wagner), not giving up a run since April 20th. It's starting to look like last year was for real, and with Worrell hurt, he may become the permanent set-up man.

Rheal Cormier
A questionable re-signing this offseason, Cormier was really only considered to be a leftie specialist. So far he has been hit or miss, and being needed in more innings than a specialist should have to be needed in. For the season, Cormier has a .231 BAA vs. lefties and .375 vs. righties. He should definitely only be used in an inning where 2 or more lefties are due up, or do the old come-in-for-1-out-then-replace-him routine. In that role he could be more effective, the problem is with the other arms the Phillies are depending on in the tweener innings (that would be the innings between the starter and wagner) requiring him to be run out to the mound more than he should be.

Terry Adams
The very questionable signing of Adams was supposedly bringing in a quality veteran arm to the middle innings of games where he could excel. Remember in 2001 when this guy was signed to be the Phillies ace? Those were dark days indeed. Since then he has been put back into the pen and done ok, but certainly nothing special. This year, he's getting torched nearly every time out. His last 2 outings he has totaled 2/3 of an inning and 8 earned runs...8 EARNED runs! and needless to say 2 very bad losses to the Brewers and Mets, not exactly offensive juggernauts. Let's not throw this guy for awhile, we really need to win some games. The way Adams is pitching, he is best suited for mop up duty or perhaps an outright release.

The Others
The Gavin Floyd experiment went awry and put a couple of games out of reach for the Phillies. Liriano has been generally inaffective. Fultz and Geary look pretty good, but aren't used in key situations. All of this has lead to 5 outright losses and too many blown saves. Why can't the starters stay in a little longer. Lidle has been pulled in his last 2 starts only to get a no-decision and a loss thanks to the bullpen. Both starts where he was cruising, possibly a career night against the Brewers even. At least the Phillies won the game against the Cubs after pulling Lidle early. One bit of advice to Manuel, keep the starter in a little longer if they are pitching strong and are under 100 pitches. Don't make the same mistakes Bowa made by going to the pen way too early, that only results in the relief pitchers being worn out by the All-Star break.

The Phillies are desperate for relief, especially from proven arms like Cormier (in a specialist role) and Worrell (if he plans on coming back at all). Maybe with the Reds in town for a 4 game set, they can be the relief we need. Let's just say we need to win 3 out of 4 at home with the Cardinals and Orioles coming up next. That 40 game mark is coming up soon (next Tuesday to be exact), and it will be interesting to hear what Manuel has to say if they haven't won a few more games by then.

Let Utley Play! Let Utley Play!

2005-05-09T21:36:00.000-05:00

Maybe if everyone chants it from every rooftop Manuel will bow to the pressure and let Chase Utley play in every game. After watching Baseball Tonight and seeing Utley go deep -- make that very deep -- not once but twice against the Brew Crew, the announcers submitted their opinions of the Utley situation. Harold Reynolds chants "Let Utley Play Everyday" while showing the home runs, he goes on to suggest that defense isn't that big of an issue as long as you can turn the double play, and he can. Well said, and as it has been documented here and elsewhere, the guy just keeps making great plays in the field.

Let's take a closer look at their career fielding percentages at 2B:
Utley .981
Polanco .990

Not that far apart, Polanco is definitely a better fielder overall, but with the added power that Utley provides, the few extra errors will more than balance themselves in favor of him playing everyday. Reynolds goes on to compare Chase to Jeff Kent. How many times have we heard that now? " Just let him play and he will give you 25-30 home runs." (Kruk actually said that).

Here's an updated comparison, decide for yourself:
Utley 6HR / 12BI / .311
Kent 7HR / 26BI / .330

And that's with 38 fewer at bats. Put some guys on base in front of him and those RBI's will balloon.

John Kruk, the loveable, laughable, ex-Phillie calls Utley and Polanco the 2 best players on the team, with regard to how they play the game day in and day out. He also says that Abreu has the most talent. Kruk also thinks Utley has the most speed of anyone on the team going from 1st to 3rd. Quite surprising actually, my vote would be Rollins in that department. Chase does have 8 career stolen bases with only 1 caught stealing though; so maybe.

C'mon Manuel, we all love David Bell's attitude, but if his back is hurting him and while he is slumping at the plate, you just have to let Polanco take over at 3rd more often than not. And just look at the defensive comparisons for Bell and Polanco at 3B (Career fielding percentages):

Polanco .981
Bell .956

Bell has actually been a .943 fielder the past 2 years, so wouldn't the Phillies actually have a stronger defense with Polanco and Utley at 3B and 2B?

Let Utley Play! Let Utley Play!

Crazy Day, Much Needed Win

2005-05-06T19:17:00.000-05:00

Just got back from Wrigley after watching a well-played, crazy-silly-never-before-seen finish to a baseball game. This was a game that the Phillies clearly needed to win to buoy their confidence and try to get something started before the season slips away. Facing a Cubs team that is in disarray and had lost 5 in a row should be a boost to the confidence. The Phillies looked great the first 2 innings, punishing Mark Prior's offerings, only to come away with a disappointing 1 run for the effort. Cory Lidle baffled the Cubs through 7 1/3 with no runs and only 3 hits allowed until a seeing eye single and sacrifice bunt (thanks for the free out Dusty) chased him from the game.

That's when things got crazy, Wagner gives up a 2 run shot to Derrick Lee with 2 outs in the 8th. It didn't seem like a bad pitch, but Wagner fell in the hole 3-0 and had to put some fastballs over the plate, and with the way Lee is hitting right now, no one can seem to get him out. Thankfully the Cubs are sticking with LaTroy Hawkins as their closer who promtly loaded the bases in the 9th with 1 out. He somehow induces a double play liner back to himself, but proceeds to throw the ball off of Jose Offerman's helmet and into the stands, plating 2 more runs. The inning ends with Wagner taking some wild swings for the 3rd out of the inning. This was actually Wagner's second at-bat of the season. He's now hitting .500. The 9th inning went much smoother with Wagner setting down the side in order to finish off the win. Phew, that was an exhausting win.

Since this is one of the few Phillies games I'll see this season, it seems an appropriate time to report on some of the interesting sights and sounds of the game.

1) Lieber to DH? Jon was taking batting practice before the game and launcing home runs over the right field wall. A nice display of hitting, which made me look up his hitting stats. A career .150 hitter (.000 this year) and never a home run. Well, maybe he isn't ready to DH yet, but the wind at Wrigley and a batting practice pitcher sure made him look like he could.

2) That kid can play. Chase Utley, a favorite topic here at Midway Phillies made a dazzling play in the field in the or 3rd inning to rob a sure base hit by diving to his right and just catching the speedy Corey Patterson. Utley also just missed a home run in his first at bat, putting the ball to the wall in straight away center. This kid has all the skills, so keep him in there.

3) Situational hitting still alludes us. With Prior clearly struggling in the 2nd inning, the Phillies loaded the bases (after a Burrell solo shot) with no outs. You figure 1 run is a given at this point, with the chance to score a lot more. Nope, Lieberthatl, Lidle and Rollins each struck out. Ok, Lidle is the pitcher, so he is given a pass here, but Lieberthal swinging at strike 3 in the dirt? All you gotta do is make contact. Even a double play scores a run. After that Prior settled down and didn't look back, matching Lidle's day. Then in the 9th, they load the bases with 1 out, if it weren't for the misfortune of Hawkins hitting Offerman in the head, the game might have ended there. Those runners-in-scoring-position-with-less-than-2-outs-but-still-not-plating-a-run innings are just killers. Note to Manuel, please work on this.

4) Lidle's quite crafty. We saw it last year when Cory came to the Phils, every other start it seemed he was throwing a shutout. The others he was getting torched. They told us he would be torched more than un-touchable, but the Phils signed him anyway. It didn't seem the wisest move at the time with Floyd seemingly ready for the big time, but it really has worked out so far this year. The way he mixes pitches, location and speeds, he can pitch with the best of them on any given day. A great asset from a supposed 5th starter.

5) Wagner brings the heat. After loosing out to injurys last year, Wagner's fastball seemed to be down a few MPH. While catching a couple of games at the end of the season at Bank One park, his fastball didn't make it over 94. Today, he was throwing 97 consistently. With the heater all of the way back, he should turn in one of those great years. The home run to Lee is just the first run he has allowed this year.

With that much needed win in the books, hopefully the Phillies can put together a much, much more needed winning streak. The next 2 pitching matchups certainly look good. Could they actually sweep? If they do, maybe they can get on a roll and get back into the thick of the NL East. Yes, still maintaining the half full glass optimism, and tipping a few of those glasses back this weekend.

Let Utley Play

2005-05-04T15:31:00.000-05:00

In a previous post, credit was given to the Phillies for letting Utley play full time. Since then, it appears he is still stuck in a straight platoon situation with Polanco. This is quite obvious when Thomas Perez gets the nod at first the last couple of nights while Thome recovers, rather than have Utley play. Not to knock Perez, but he's the Phillies true utility guy, as opposed to Placido "Super Utility" Polanco. Perez's seaonal average (if you assume 162 games) is 6HR / 40RBI / .247, so he's not exactly going to light the world on fire with his bat. Now that Ryan "the Bull Part 2" Howard is up, he should take the lion's share of time at first while Thome is down. And, Howard is an exciting guy to watch, I can't wait to see him hit a few out in batting practice this Friday at Wrigley. Yes, still stuck in Chicago, at least the weather is starting to get better.

Back to Utley. Not to sound like a broken record, but why isn't Polanco taking at bats away from David Bell who is hitting a meager .217? If you break it down, the kid they refered to as the next Jeff Kent is really starting to look like Jeff Kent. For the sake of argument, let's extrapolate Utley's numbers supposing he had the same total at bats as Kent 55 vs. 94. That would look something like this:

Chase Utley 5HR / 15BI / .327
Jeff Kent 6HR / 21BI / .319

Pretty similar numbers wouldn't you say? Of course there is the argument that Chase only faces right handers and his career numbers against lefties isn't so great. Well, how do we know for sure, he has only 57 at bats against lefties in his entire major league career. With Bell's hitting in the dumps, could Utley be any worse than him right now? To further the comparison of Utley and Kent, let's look at their seasonal averages (based on 162 games played), the totals would look like this:

Chase Ultey 19HR / 91BI / .265
Jeff Kent 28HR / 110BI / .290

Still a little way to go to be as productive as Kent, but not far off. In fact, Kent's first full season in 1993 with the Mets yielded a 21HR/ 80BI / .270 campaign, very similar numbers, heck, almost identical.

So given this, let's play arm-chair manager for a moment and give Utley a chance to play everyday and show us what he is capable of. In fact, let's set the infield as Howard/Utley/Rollins/Polanco and see how it goes. All of these guys are very productive hitters and quite capable defenders. If Howard struggles, move Utley over to First, Polanco to Second and Bell to Third. It's all about keeping the most productive hitters in the lineup for the greatest number of at bats, and hitters are more productive when they have a regular role.

We have to at least find out, don't we?

One Month Mark

2005-05-02T00:31:00.000-05:00

The first month of baseball is over and the Phils are 10-14, in last place and 5 games behind the East leading Marlins. (At least we finally beat the fish to start off May) So, how is the team doing with 24 games under their belt in 2005? Many might say horrific, terrible, dem bums, or something of that sort, and who could blame them for a last place April showing. But, why not keep our heads up and look at the glass as half full, especially with 5 months of baseball left. After all, this same Phillies club had a pitiful April in 2004 and managed to run up a 3 game lead on the division just before the All Star break, so why can't that happen again? And, this time maybe the pitching staff will stay healthy and the team can avoid the disastrous slide of 2004's second season.

So, here are 5 positive things to keep in mind and keep us sane for the next month of the season.

1. We have our health. So far, no major injuries have cropped up to bite the Phillies, always a good sign for a team that has playoff aspirations. Sure, there's been the recent back pain for Thome and Lofton's hamstring, and Burrell's groin, but nothing major, and that's a key after last year.

2. The top 2 starters. Last year it was the Mil's boys at the top of the rotation, and I don't thing we need to rehash that pain. This year it's a resurgent Lieber and a more mature Myers anchoring the staff. The good news is that Lieber is pitching as expected, keeping the ball down, winning 4 games already with a solid ERA of 3.03. A full year of these kind of performances will quickly put Millwood and Milton out of our minds. The more surprising (and pleasantly so) story is Brett Myers. For several years now, he has been heralded as the next coming of Curt Schilling and with his nasty stuff it seemed to be a realistic thought. After a poor showing in 2004, Myers has a microscopic 1.35 ERA and just under 1 baserunner allowed per inning, both incredible numbers after his 5.52 ERA last year and a 4.59 career mark. Even more encouraging are his strike out totals at just about 1 per inning, well up from his career marks, a great sign of things to come. This all bodes well for his progression to a top-of-the-line starter for the Phils.

3. Thome and Abreu. So far, these guys have barely hit anything. Thome has 1 homer and a .203 BA. Abreu also has 1 HR and a .262 BA. Both of these guys are notoriously slow starters, but really heat it up once the mercury rises. And, with either of these guys able to carry the team for a week at a time, look for some long winning streaks in May and June thanks to their bats. Some food for thought, they have averaged 73 HR per year since 2001; with 2 out of the way in April, that means 71 more long balls to go the rest of the year, or about 15 per month. That's some hittin'.

4. Pat the Bat. Wether it was Bowa, the hitting coaches, or Jobu, Pat Burrell finally looks comfortable at the plate again after a mystifying 2003 and 2004 where he struggled to even swing the bat. This year, Pat is hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and was rewarded with a great April line of 5 HR / 21 RBI / .305 BA. Keeping him in the 4th spot in the lineup to break up the left-handed bats of Thome and Abreu will go a long way to winning many more games. By the All-Star break, people should be saying "Abreu - Burrell - Thome, oh my".

5. Wagner's back. Ater a lost campaign in 2004, Billy "100 mph" Wagner is back and in charge of the 9th inning. While Worrell did a great job filling in last year, it really hurt the middle inning guys when they had to pick up the slack for Wagner's time out. With a full year of Wagner, the Phils won't be sweating the 9th anytime soon.

Let's give this team a little more time, some warmer weather and an apple a day to keep the doctor away, and there's no reason why they can't take command of the East and be back in first by the time the All Star break comes around. And, with the bargaining chips that Ed Wade holds this year, pretty much any need that arises late in the year can be filled. So let's not look at the glass as half empty and keep things positive as we head into May. When we get to the 40 game mark, as Manuel says, then we will know what we have.

Finally the Bell Tolls

2005-04-28T01:19:00.000-05:00

That frustrating but forgiving moment on opening day when we all found out that Chase Utley wasn't actually the full-time 2nd baseman has finally come around. We all remember when Manuel decided that Polanco should get his fair share of at bats, certainly a worthy cause given his productivity in recent years, but coming at the cost of playing time for Utley just didn't sit well with many Phillies fans. We have been conditioned to believe that Utley is the next Jeff Kent, and his track record backs that up so far. But, we gave Charlie a pass and said let's see what happens with this platoon thing.

Almost a month into the season, the results of the platoon are:
Polanco .268 / 0HR / 6RBI / 0SB / 8R
Utley .289 / 2HR / 8RBI / 0SB / 6R
Bell .221 / 1HR / 9RBI / 0SB / 7R

All very similar numbers with the exception of batting average. However, Utley has done it with 11 fewer at bats than Polanco and 32 fewer at bats than Bell.

So, this brings up tonights game where Polanco got the start at 3rd base and Utley at 2nd. This could be a harbinger of things to come. Certainly Polanco can put up about the same numbers as Bell, just look at their track records, and are they that much different defensively? Don't get me wrong, I love Bell's attitude and clubhouse presence, but if he isn't producing at the plate, why not go with Polanco there. And really, shouldn't that be the platoon. Let's give Utley a chance to play everyday, if he isn't able to handle it, then we can put Polanco back in there, however, the crystal ball says if you give Utley his 500+ at bats he will put up Kent-esque numbers. Certainly a 25HR / 85RBI campaign isn't too much of a reach for the kid. That would put him in the top 5 in all of baseball for second basemen.

So, finally we see Utley start a game in which Polanco is also playing. Hopefully there will be more of that to come. Of course, the Phillies win the game tonight thanks in part to Bell's pinch hit that scored Bobby Abreu for an insurance run. Utley, he was 0-4, but Loaiza threw like his 2003 self, so that's not very telling.

Let's see what Friday brings. Hopefully more Utley in the lineup, and a Fish beating.

Floyd Phollow-Up

2005-04-25T23:18:00.000-05:00

As predicted, the Phillies made the right choice in sending Gavin Floyd back to the minors. Manuel has realized the error of his decision, and to his credit, reversed his thought process based on the facts. As MLB.com reported..."I want him to go down there and get his stuff back, and he'll be fine," said Manuel. "He's got a future with us. He's going to be with us a long time. I think it's just a matter of him going down there and pitching." It's good to see that Manuel doesn't have an ego about these things; many managers might have stuck with the guy and tried to get him to pitch through his problems, and caused even worse damage.

Though I suppose it couldn't have been much worse. Gavin racked up a 31.91 ERA in his 3 2/3 innings of relief. That's a whopping 13 runs. It's clear he wasn't comfortable in the roll.

Given that AAA was the original plan before the bullpen experiment, hopefully he will get himself back on track and be back up with the big club the next time he is needed. It says here that we will see him again this year. While it would be nice for the starting 5 to avoid injury, the reality is that someone is likely to go down, even if it is for a short stint.

By the way, Padilla looked much better in his second start off of the DL. Hopefully he is getting back to his former self and can give the Phils 20 or so quality starts.

What the Phl*#$@yd?

2005-04-24T01:26:00.000-05:00

Ok, after seeing Gavin Floyd implode in both of his 2 stints out of the bullpen, isn't it time to stop this experiment? I understand the thinking of keeping your best pitchers in the majors, but can't we agree that Gavin's ascention to the "future ace of the staff" is taking a turn for the worse by pitching out of the bullpen. It's certainly not his fault, he has conditioned himself to be a starter. Whether it's due to the shorter warm-up time, or the mental preparation of coming into a game to mop up, it's just not working out.

It's important to remember that Floyd only made the big league squad because of Padilla's injury, and a strong spring training. The plan all along was to send him back to the minors for more seasoning. Management seemed to already know that he needed fine tuning, so why make him toil in mop up work in the majors. Can't the Phillies find other options for this. Options that don't mortgage the future of the club.

Hopefully the damage done to this young man's confidence is reversible. Please send him to the minors now! I for one would much rather see Floyd fine tuning in the minors rather than taking his lumps in the bigs. Once the inevitable DL stint comes into play for one of the everyday starters, don't we want him ready to go 6 strong innings. He's certainly shown the capability to be a quality starter, so let him mature into that role.

Look for Gavin's demotion to AAA tomorrow and consider it a blessing. For the good of the club, he needs to continue progressing as planned.