21 July 2006

Trade Winds Swirling

This doesn't come as a surprise to anyone who is mildly following the Phillies these days, but Pat Gillick seems determined to trade away some big salaries in order to fix the problems the Phillies are having. What's the problem you ask? Well any baseball fan can answer that one. Our starting pitching stinks!

This has been a tourturous season to be a Phillies fan. The season began with so much promise from guys like Floyd and Madson tearing up Spring Training, then bringing in the highly touted Cole Hamels. It shouldn't have mattered that Lieber was out with injuries and Myers was out for his problems, the depth of talent should have been able to make up for the holes. Well, it certainly hasn't worked out that way, the Phillies are the proud owners of the worst pitching staff in the National League (at least when you measure it by the number of base runners allowed).

So, Pat is hitting the trade market to find the team some arms and to re-adjust the payroll so that arms can be bought in the off-season. In the next week-and-a-half, the following guys could be traded away.

Bobby Abreu
The biggest name on the trade market (on par with Soriano of course), Abreu's name just hasn't stayed out of trade rumors since the off-season. The likelihood of him being traded seems quite low however. The reason's being that Abreu is a big-time talent with a big-time contract. Pat is smart enough to see this and is looking for another team to take on Bobby's entire salary and return top talent in trade. This becomes even more difficult since Bobby has a no-trade clause and will only waive it if his option is picked up, making him a $30M player. Pretty much only the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox can afford that. The Yankees and Mets are in more need of arms then bats and neither has the talent to trade that Gillick seems to be in search of, namely top tier starters. The White Sox would seem to be a fit since they have an extra starter in either Garcia, Vasquez or hot shot prospect Brandon McCarthy. They also need a better center fielder and could easily move the speedy Podsednik into the role. However, the White Sox seem more interested in a pitcher. Why? Who knows, they seem to have to many of them to begin with. Vasquez could be a good addition and a player that seems to only want to play on the East Coast, but the prospects of that sort of deal happening are slim.

Pat Burrell
If Abreu can't be moved, the over-bloated contract of Burrell's seems to be next on the list. The Orioles seem to have interest and are willing to part with Rodrigo Lopez, but that isn't all that exciting of an arm to acquire. Think Cory Lidle when you hear the name Lopez. A guy that can shut a team down one night and get blown out the next. Here's an idea, how about a trade for Melvin Mora, the Philies are certain to dump the underperforming error-machine they have at third base after the season, and will need to replace that position anyway. It doesn't fix the immediate need, but maybe some more offense will help that pitching staff win another game or two. Let me explain the more offense part...Mora would offer similar numbers to Burrell's, while Dellucci and Victorino could platoon in left and both could put up better numbers than David Bell. Oh, why couldn't Thome have played third?

Cory Lidle
For as consistent as Cory has been in the middle of the rotation the past few years, he has never been considered a major building block for the team. The Phillies seem interested in helping another team that needs a little extra pitching to get over the hump this year, and there seems to be considerable interest. Cory is a solid pitcher, and he seems the most likely to be moved. Weird, since pitching is our problem, but it is an epidemic around the league anyway. Maybe Pat can talk the Dodgers into swapping Lowe for Lidle, Lowe would be a perfect fit as a ground-ball specialist, though he has limited upside.

Jon Lieber
His start tonight might be his final audition for a trading partner as it seems certain that Lieber and his relatively large contract are almost certainly headed to another team before the deadline. No idea which team it would be, but the Yankees, Mets and even the White Sox could be at the top of the list.

Other names that could be moved are Tom Gordon, Arthur Rhodes, David Bell (if anyone would take him), Franklin and Dellucci. It doesn't seem prudent to trade Gordon if the Phillies feel like they can contend next year, if this is a longer-term play, then Gordon would be easy to trade away. Dellucci has garnered a decent amount of interest and could be much easier to trade than Abreu or Burrell, but it doesn't do much for freeing up salary, which seems to be one of the keys for making deals right now.

In the end, expect Lieber and Lidle to be traded, leaving a rotation of Myers, Madson, Hamels, Wolf and probably Franklin. Ouch, not real exciting, but a staff that can eat up the innings left in the season and get the team ready for 2007 when the staff starts with Myers, Wolf and Hamels with Franklin in all likelihood on another team and Madson back in the bullpen.

Then, let's see if Gillick can get it done and bring in some top talent. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito should be available. Schmidt would be my choice since Zito is a flyball type of pitcher, but more on that when the post-season arrives.