29 June 2005

Rumblin...Bumblin...Stumblin

It's been difficult to write about the Phillies over the past week, so why not borrow a phrase from Chris Berman to describe the current state of the Phillies. It seems pretty appropriate.

Seriously though, how does a team come off of a 15-2 record from May 25-June 12, then face back-to-back-to-back last place teams and go 3-6? Of course the A's are not in last place, but they had been playing like it. Then to get swept in ugly fashion at home by the Red Sox, and now sporting a 5 game losing streak thanks to the Mets last night. Ouch.

Tonight the Phillies face the last place Mets again, who have taken 3 out of the last 4 from the Phillies, and if they win tonight it will be the Phillies who are once again in last place and potentially back to 7.5 games out of first place. Incidentally, this is the spot they started in when they ran off the winning streak. The only silver lining in this is the fact that they are still over .500. It's an amazing feat to have all of the teams in the division with winning records this late in the season, but not much of a comfort to Phillies fans.

The Phillies have to enter tonight's game with a certain sense of urgency. They have to win now to stay ahead of the Mets and keep from falling further behind the pace of the division. After this series, the Braves come to town, which could be a pivital series for the Phillies this year. It looks like the Braves are once again in position to win the N.L. East, and no one is giving the Nationals much of a chance to stay in first the rest of the way. With the Phillies trailing the Braves by 4 games, this weekend is an opportunity to climb back in this race, or fall out of it.
  • What could happen -- the Phillies sweep the Braves putting them 1 game behind

  • What can't happen -- the Braves sweep the Phillies and bury us in a pretty deep hole

  • What's likely to happen -- a series split that doesn't move the standing much either way...but isn't the drama of a sweep much more interesting?
Hold tight Philly faithful. Enjoy the 4th of July. Eat some hot dogs. Then check back in with the standings next week. That's when we might have a better idea of where the Phillies are headed this year.

21 June 2005

Where's the All Star Support?

Bobby Abreu is solidly in 3rd place on the All-Star ballot among National League outfielders, and Pat Burrell is 8th, but beyond those 2, not another Phillies player is even in the top 5 at their position. C'mon Citizen's Banker's, start stuffing those ballot boxes, in-stadium voting ends this Friday. Abreu as the 3rd outfielder? He definitely should be first. We all know how he has carried the team, especially in early May when the Phillies desperately needed a hot bat, and just look at the statistical comparison of the top 3, along with Burrell.

Beltran .268 / 8HR / 33BI / 28R / 1SB
Edmonds .285 / 11HR / 39BI / 35R / 1SB
Abreu .324 / 16HR / 48BI / 50R / 17SB
Burrell .305 / 14HR / 55BI / 28R / 0SB

It's not that Abreu is just leading in every offensive category, he is blowing Beltran and Edmonds away, even Burrell is beating them out in every category, except for that 1 stolen base. With the playoff exposure Beltran got last year and landing in New York, no wonder he is leading the voting, but his numbers this year are paltry, Chase Utley is hitting better -- make that way better.

Speaking of Utley, where's the brotherly love for voting him in at Second. Yeah, Jeff Kent is having a monster year, and has all of those L.A. fans to vote him in, but after that it's Grudzielanek, Biggio, T. Walker, and M. Giles. All of these guys have underwhelming stats. Let's take a look at the Utley - Kent comparison, a popular topic throughout the year.

Kent .291 / 14HR / 53BI / 46R / 4SB
Utley .307 / 10HR / 33BI / 31R / 5SB

Kent has the advantage for sure, but keep in mind that Utley has 62 fewer at bats. Give Chase another 62 at bats and those stat lines will be nearly identical. Utley should at least be second in the balloting here. Maybe Torre will see the talent and select Utley anyway, that's if he doesn't put his own player (Grudzielanek) on the team first.

Then there is the matter of Jimmy Rollins. Yes, he had a slow start to the season, but there just aren't that many good hitting shortstops these days, and the top 5 is a joke. Barmes and Garciaparra are injured for an extensive period of time. Furcal is barely hitting over the Mendoza Line (.221 to be exact). Eckstein at least scores some runs. Izturis at least has the gold glove to support him at the number 1 position. Can't we get Jimmy into the top 3 at least?

All right Phanatics, get out to the ballot box and vote. It hasn't happened early, but can still happen often. Exercise your right to choose.

19 June 2005

Hey Hey Tejeda

Robinson Tejeda is making a case for himself as the guy to replace Wolf's spot in the lineup. He blanked the A's for 5 2/3 innings on Friday, earning his first win and extending his scoreless innings streak to 10 2/3 as a starter. Not bad for an emergency fill in.

So, how did Tejeda look? His pitches do have a lot of movement on them and batters seem to have a hard time picking up the location, esentially some nasty stuff. Todd Pratt had this to say about Tejeda "We wanted to hide his power until we needed it in the middle innings...He's got a lively fastball with some movement, and a good changeup, really two changeups, one's more like a split." A good review to be sure. In his 10 2/3 innings Tejeda has only given up 6 hits and has struck out 5, both very good totals.

On the downside, Tejeda is giving up a fair share of free passes. While he only walked one batter on Friday, he did walked 4 in his previous start covering 5 innings, and has 17 total walks in just 20 innings of work this year. It is also important to note that the A's offense is one of the worst in the majors. Not that to diminsh his outing, it was superb, but it is still worth noting. It is rare when a pitcher comes from obscurity to have great success in the majors, but certainly not unheard of. Tejeda could be the starters version of Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez.

What to look for...for Tejeda to keep his spot in the rotation, he will need to cut down on his walk rate and show that he can work deeper into games. At this point he is a 5 inning pitcher, but over the next few starts he is likely to be stretched out to 6, 7 or even 8 innings. This will be a true test of how he can fare at the major league level. Tejeda should be given at least a couple more starts to see if he can keep up the success. If he falters however, the Phillies could turn to Gavin Floyd (yes, he has been struggling in the minors, but likely just needs some confidence), or they will need to make a move for a pitcher out on the market.

Figuring out who will fill Wolf's spot in the rotation the rest of the year is key to continuing the Phillies success, and will continue to be the most important issue to follow over the next few weeks.

15 June 2005

Wolf is Toast

The news isn't good for Randy Wolf with the injury to his ulnar collateral ligament (that's his elbow), and it looks like he is going to be headed for the dreaded Tommy John surgery. While this sort of surgery has been quite successful over the past several years (just ask Jon Lieber), it still means Wolf would definitely be out for the rest of this year, and likely much, if not all of 2006. Wolf hasn't decided on surgery yet, since he could opt to rest and rehab the elbow. However, this seems unlikely since this has been a recurring problem since last year and is likely to continue in the future. While not for certain, it seems he is headed for the surgery and we all wish him well as he will be sorely missed in the Phillies rotation.

With the expected loss of Wolf for the year, what are the Phillies options for filling his spot in the rotation? Had this question been asked at the beginning of the year, the answer would have been obvious...Gavin Floyd would have finally taken his much anticipated spot in the rotation. However, Floyd has been struggling at AAA since his stint as a reliever and subsequent demotion. One can't help but wonder if this kid's confidence has been shaken so badly from his outings as a reliever that it has translated to his starting. Perhaps bringing him back to the majors would restore the confidence, but that may not be a chance the Phillies want to take.

For now, it looks like Rob Tejeda will get the first crack at the open spot in the rotation. He did have a great outing last week against the Rangers tossing 5 shutout innings, but he has come from relative obscurity in the minors to do so. With only 15 major league innings under his belt, it may be a lot to ask.

If Tejeda doesn't work out and Floyd can't find his groove, then Ed Wade will have to step in and start the dealing. With Ryan Howard as the most likely bargaining chip, let's look at 6 starting pitching options likely to be on the market.

First the A List, meaning it may take Howard plus something to get these guys.

Roger Clemens - Astros
One of the aces of the Astros staff, Clemens sports a gaudy 1.64 ERA. With the Astros going nowhere this season, and Bagwell's career seemingly over, this looks like a good fit. However, The Rocket has a no-trade clause in his contract, and had retired before last year, only to come back because of the chance to play for his home town team. So, unless his competitive juices are flowing strong enough, this would be a tough deal to close.

Barry Zito - A's
Zito's name always seems to come up as a trade possibility for the Phillies. It seemed like Polanco was going to be traded for Zito last year, but that never materialized. The A's could definitely use a power hitting first baseman since Durazo doesn't seem to be turning into the hitter he was expected to be. Zito is a solid lefty, and is due a substantial raise in the near future (always a good reason for the A's to trade a player). This would seem to be a good fit for both teams, though Zito, an ex-Cy Young winner has struggled through the last 2 years at times, giving up a few too many home runs. Even so, he would provide a solid replacement for Wolf.

Jason Schmidt - SF Giants
The Giants are stuggling mightily without Barry Bonds in the lineup, and they might just start cleaning house to rebuild if it looks like Bonds won't return. JT Snow can't last much longer at first base, so they might have some interest in Howard. It may take awhile for them to decide to throw in the towel on this season, but if they do, Schmidt could be on the list of players to shop. Schmidt has been a perennial Cy Young candidate the last several seasons, though he has a 6.12 ERA this year. With his track record, he would be a welcome addition to the Phillies staff.

Now for the B list.

Mark Redman - Pirates
The Pirates are surging, but are unlikely to challenge the Cardinals this year. Once they feel they are out of the race, their annual trading spree could begin. Redman who is putting together a nice year (2.80 ERA) could be used as their bargaining chip. As you may recall, Redman was a solid piece of the Marlins rotation the year they won it all, so he has the playoff experience. He also has a 4.17 ERA and 33-36 record over the past 3 years. Solid numbers for a back of the rotation starter.

Jamie Moyer - Mariners
Seattle is having a tough year this year, and Moyer is about at the end of his career, so he doesn't seem to figure into their long-range plans. And, Moyer is a name Phillies fans may remember as a guy they were trying to sign in 2003. Moyer is a crafty veteran, but may not have much left in the tank. The Mariners are also set at first with Richie Sexson, but in the AL they do have that DH spot to fill.

Kevin Millwood - Indians
Would the Phillies brass dare bring back Millwood? Not likely, and the Indians are still in the race in the AL Central, and set at first base with Travis Hafner. But, who knows, stranger things have happened, and if Millwood isn't looked to as the "ace" of the staff, he could be a serviceable middle of the rotation guy. Just don't boo him too loudly.

11 June 2005

Wild Card Team

Entering play today, June 11, the Philadelphia Phillies hold the National League Wild Card spot. Yes, it is rediculous to be thinking about the Wild Card, especially a month before the All-Star game, but just think about that for a second. This team has played so well since having it handed to them in Florida a couple of weeks ago that if the season ended today, they would be the Wild Card team. How many of the Philly Phaithful had given up on this team after that game (if not sooner)?

Of course, the season doesn't end today, and the Phillies have another 100 games to play, starting tonight against the Brew Crew. And, who wants to take the Wild Card when the National League East division title is up for grabs. Does anyone believe the Nationals are a strong enough team to hold the lead? Probably not many takers outside the beltway. Most would probably be picking the Marlins at this point, and the Phillies hold a 2 game lead over them. That's a 9.5 game swing over 2 weeks of play. Simply amazing.


Recent Observations
This streak the Phillies are on is the streak that so many in the media kept predicting last year, which never came. The whole time the Phillies were 5-7 games out, everyone was expecting them to string together 8-10 wins and get back in the race. This year, it was the same situation, albeit much earlier in the season and without the media prognosticators. So finally the winning streak is here, hopefully we get a second one since we were denied last year.

Jim Thome is showing signs of coming out of his funk. He's hit 2 home runs the last 2 days and 4 since May 27th. As described in a previous post, June is Thome's month to shine. Look for another 6 or 7 from Thome this month, and for him to carry the team at times.

Oogey, Oogey, Oogey. There's a new set-up man in town. Ugueth Urbina is now a Philly and comes in at a crucial time to save the tired bullpen arms. Urbina is a rock solid relief pitcher (despite his first outing), and should make closing the door on teams a much easier task. His signing really saves the arms up-and-down the staff. Wagner can get the occasional day off, and Madson and Cormier don't have to shoulder as much of a load in the late innings. This also allows the starters to come out a bit earlier if needed.

Worrell is back! Almost that is. Tim Worrell, as reported on MLB.com, is back with the team. He claims his personal issues are behind him and he is looking forward to pitching again. The goal is to have him get in condition, think a short spring training, and start a rehab assignment by June 20th. That could put Worell back in the Phillies bullpen just before July. This would be perfect timing, as the bullpen may need a boost by that time. This could set up a great situation for the stretch run, as a healthy (mentally or otherwise) Worrell makes this a scary relief staff.

08 June 2005

Phils Finally get Urbina

Congrats to Ed Wade for pulling off a deal to get Ugueth Urbina, maybe a couple of years late, but finally. You see, back in 2003, when the Phillies were hitting the home stretch and leading the division, Jose Mesa had a historic meltdown. At that time, the Phillies badly needed another arm to close in the bullpen and Texas was looking to trade Urbina. However, the Phillies failed to get him (not sure if they even tried) and instead made a terrible move in getting Mike Williams from the Pirates. On another subject, the Pirates ended up trading Lofton and Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs that year for a bag of peanuts. The Phillies desperately needed a centerfielder and 3rd baseman by the end of 2003...but as we said that is another topic.

Back to Urbina, instead of the Phillies nabbing him, the Marlins ended up grabbing him and rode his arm to the National League Wild Card and eventually the World Series. And I'm sure all the Phillies fans remember watching that World Series and thinking, "why the heck aren't we playing the Yankees right now". Maybe it's unfair to blame Mesa for the entire season, after all Millwood had his meltdown too, but the Phillies barely missed the Wild Card, and for the Marlins, Urbina definitely was a difference maker for them that year, just take a look at the closer stats after that trade.

Urbina 3-0 / 6 SV / 1.41 ERA
Mesa 1-2 / 6 SV / 10.50 ERA

It's amazing that Mesa even saved 6 games while allowing a full 9 runs more per 9 innings than Urbina. Mesa broke down so badly that he was barely used by the end of the year, and while Mike Williams was inserted as the closer for a time, he was no better. We would look up Williams' stats, but he is no longer an active player, so you know how bad he was.

But, that was the past, and the Phillies are in contention again this year. Urbina is just the type of quality arm that the bullpen is in need of, especially with the apparent loss of Tim Worrell. He fits in well as the set-up man and backup for Wagner. It is odd that Urbina hasn't been more highly regarded, especially when you look at his stats over the past 3 years.

3.35 ERA
.201 Opponents Batting Average
93 Saves
86% Save Conversion
205 Strike Outs (in 191 innings)

Compare these to Tim Worrell's stats, the role Urbina is filling:

2.95 ERA
.239 Opponents Batting Average
57 Saves
78% Save Conversion
184 Strike Outs (in 228.2 innings)

Ed Wade has certainly done a good job of replacing Tim Worrell, now if we can only get Worrell back and into his old form, this would be one of the strongest pens in the majors.

As for losing Polanco, it is a shame to see him go, but he has been on the bubble for awhile now. Last year at the trading deadline he was almost on the A's, then this off-season he looked destined to return to the Cardinals. Only a down market for his skills and a shocking acceptance of arbitration kept him on the team. While he has been a valuable asset, this paves the way for Chase Utley to play every day, which isn't a bad thing at all.

As for Ramon Martinez the other player the Phillies get in this deal, he is really a Polanco-lite. Guess that would make him more like a Thomas Perez, and that means he can be valuable to the team.

You can look forward to the Phillies closing the door in more convincing fashion the rest of the year with Urbina working the 8th. His presence will save the bullpen, with Madson and Cormier back to 7th inning duties and Wagner exclusively working the 9th (he has been coming into games in the 8th lately). Now all the starters need to do is get the game through 6 innings, a much easier task than 7. So let's give a round of applause to Wade on this one and look forward to an exciting pennant race.

04 June 2005

No Mediocre Week

What a difference a week makes. On May 24th, the Phillies had just lost a stunner to the Marlins and were sitting in the basement of the National League East at 7.5 games out and 5 games under .500. Now, on June 4th, they are 2 games over .500 and are only 1.5 games out of first. Amazingly, the Phillies are still in last, and technically it was a week and a half, but still, the outlook for the division has completely changed.

Being a .518 team and only 1.5 games out of first place, while still being in last brings up an interesting question...Has there ever been a division in baseball where every team was over .500 this late into the season? No, we don't know the answer here at Midway Phillies, somebody please chime in if they do. This is an anomoly for sure, and very hard to accomplish with the number of inter-division games that have been played.

It seems that the baseball world is unsure what to make of this situation in the N.L. East. Phil Sheridan at Philly.com characterizes the National League East as a "down division" stating that "we can safely say this is not a banner year for the NL East". Talking baseball with Cub fan friends in Chicago, one of them remarked that the N.L. East is a mediocre division.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers to see how "mediocre" this division really is. To begin with, the teams in the N.L. East have played 55% of their games against each other, posting a combined 75-75 record. Certainly a well-balanced division, but are these teams having a down year?

It seems that the argument being made is that the stronger teams are those playing over .600; the Cardinals, Padres, Orioles and White Sox. However, each of these teams has played a large portion of their games against division rivals, and each has teams in their division playing with winning percentages under .400. Meaning, the Padres get to beat up on the Rockies, the White Sox get to beat up on the Royals, etc. Here are the intra-division records of the teams playing over .600.

21-4 Cardinals
20-4 White Sox
18-8 Orioles
15-12 Padres

At best this shows a disparity between the best and worst teams within a division. To determine the strength of a division, we must look at the inter-division records, as these are the common teams that each team within a division is facing (interleague games aren't included since there aren't as many common matchups). Here's how the divisions stack up:

67-63 (.515) A.L. East
65-64 (.504) A.L. Central
67-73 (.479) A.L. West
63-47 (.573) N.L. East
67-75 (.472) N.L. Central
54-62 (.466) N.L. West

The N.L. East has the best winning percentage in inter-league games, showing they clearly have the strongest set of teams thus far into the season. This can hardly be considered a "mediocre" or "down division", in fact these numbers suggest that this is the most competitive division in the majors.